Clinton Camp: Obama Document Predicted Indiana Victory, Does That Still Stand?

Back in February, the Obama camp mistakenly released a spreadsheet detailing their anticipated margins of victory (and defeat) in all upcoming primaries. With only days to go until Indiana, the Clinton camp is publicly musing whether Obama stands by his projection to win Indiana by seven points. The memo is below.

Meanwhile, the latest well-known Obama superdelegate isn't trying to tamp down expectations:

WALLACE: Let's -we've got about a minute left, we've got about a minute left, gentlemen, so let me ask you for some final predictions. What are we going to see Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina? Mr. Andrew, you start.

ANDREW: Tough races. Barack Obama is going to win. I think --

WALLACE: You think he's going to win both? You think he's going to win both, Mr. Andrew?

ANDREW: I think he's going to win both.

[WATCH]

To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?

Story continues below

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Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.

Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?

It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations - a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana's primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.

The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.

Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.

In North Carolina, Tuesday's other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.

The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families - who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?

Comments

[remedy]

This is my holdup on HRC. Bill and Hillary according to her resume had the whitehouse for eight years, two of those were with a working majority. In 1992 thru 2000 the awful state of healthcare, the fact we had no energy policy with looming consequences on the horizon, were all major issues. What did they do about any of those? Any lasting improvements i ask? I will give them credit for doing good things to the economy for the working class at the time and lowering the national deficit. Mostly ideas that came from an excellent group of experts. Still i give the Clintons credit for knowing who to pick to guide us thru that crisis. At the end of the day it proved trickle down economics does not work for everyone. Im also aware that Bush and the republicians did make matters worse but the fact remains the Clintons were there and had a chance and they failed. And NAFTA which would later suck so many jobs from this country was a bad decision. So now were to believe they will get it right this time? Can we risk failure again? Now i realize there is no proof that Obama can make the changes but we have positively seen that doing the samething over and expecting different outcomes does not work for the working class.

[chicagojosh]

Maybe the Obama campaign shouldn't have spent so much money that they were horribly in debt and the candidate had to loan his own campaign $5 million. It probably wasn't such a good idea to predict that the candidacy was completely wrapped up by Super Tuesday...

Oh wait...

Maybe that third cajone Carville claims she has is causing her some discomfort and is screwing with her long term memory.

[bdul26]

Hee hee!

[hoodrat]

Third one... wondered where she kept Bill, when not on the stump - he's the third lump.

[JMANB5]

Hillary originally thought this would be over Super Tuesday, does that still stand?

[silverball]

omg...great one!!!....they have "conveniently" forgotten that....lol

[hubbstan]

The Hillary camp has always been doing petty things such as this one. I can just see what kind of White House operation is like if she wins. Her camp keeps saying the Obama outspend them - well why not pointing at the fact that she has the advantage of being first lady for most of ther adult life and she doesn't need to spend money to advertize her name. In fact, as a former first lady she had every advantage to start with but still rased less money than Obama and still behind in delegates count, despite many voted for her was actually voting for her husband the former President. shame.

[OrionGal]

I am urging everyone to EMAIL the Congressional SuperDelegates in regards to Hillary's attempts to undermine the United States Constitution, Election Law, and Congress.

Here is an up-to-date Link showing Uncommitted and Committed SuperDelegates:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/superdelegates/index.html

Please locate at least one SuperDelegate and email them to Endorse Obama. After Hillary's vicious statements today, the Congressional SuperDelegates need to decide THIS WEEK.

[Vantunow]

Thanks for the link. If you do thorough analysis, you would find that Obama would only end up needing 30% of the uncommitted. Less than 100 to put an actual number on it.

Most of the uncomitted are DNC insiders and party officials. Since Obama has won 31 out of 46 contests, and many of them handily, most of the uncommitted are from his States.

I can't imagine insiders from States like Illinois, his home State, and like Georgia and South Carolina, and Maryland, Virginia and Mississippi would abandon him.

I simply can't believe that.

Only 30% of the remaining uncommitted and you have to believe that in the Big States he carried overwhelmingly, he would get that number comforatbly.

One thing people fail to notice is that Hillary's lead comes from guys like Harold Ickes, who have position as party official and DNC insiders who were always supposed to be for Hillary.

Obama has now lead in Elected Supers and once the process is nearing to a close, Supers from States that he carried overwhelmingly, who are not Elected, will not abandon him.

Almost ALL the DNC insiders from NY have declared in favor of Hillary. They have not done so for Obama in Illinois or Georgia. I can't imagine they would go against votes just because Hillary has decided to destroy Obama.

[cathye]

I got an email from the head of the DNC here in my state when I questioned whether they wanted to abandon Obama. She assured me that they're standing firm with Obama til the end because they believe in him, and my state's voters spoke loud and clear.

Obama 08!

[Hillrick]

...And Hillary probably predicted to be the nominee at this point. Her team did not see Obama coming and didn't act soon enough to keep from being overwhelmed. All without Obama going on the negative as she has.

[sangsue]

Actually, the truth is (as Team Clinton proved when they said that Obama is not electable) they were counting on the fact that Obama would be seen as a joke and would have been gone before Super Tuesday. Oh, look, the black candidate actually thinks he can be President.

Oh look, the black candidate is beating her in delegates and is a better strategist.

[Vantunow]

If the spreadsheet is wrong, that would be for the first time ever. I guess when they made the spreadsheet, they didn't know that Jeremiah Wright would be trying to sabotage Obama, and entire Right Wing Conservative Media would be backing Hillary, Rush Limbauh and Ann Coulter would be Hillary's biggest Champions, Race Baiting would be an acceptable technique, and media would go in the tank for Hillary, and worst of all, Hillary would be running as a Right Wing Republican.

Had the Obama's camp expected all those unexpected events to transpire, they might have declared that race in Indiana as a toss up in their spreadsheet.

If Zogbee is right and Hillary's bump from Wright debacle is gone, and Obama is recovering and recovering fast, then there is a descent chance Obama can pull Indiana out to and bring this nomination process to a close.

I personally have not given up on the Spread Sheet!

Lets go Obama! Obliterate Hillary.

[SethBullock]

What an irony--his people are so good that they are nearly perfect in predicting all but one race so far--and she wants to use it against them...just a perfect example of her old-politics one-upmanship. I sure hope Indiana voters are smart enough to put an end to this Tuesday.

[LAcarlito]

So the old Obama delegate memo predicted a victory in Indiana? It also predicted Clinton would win Texas by 9 delegates (wrong!) and that Obama would only have a pledge delegate lead of 76 or so when the process was over. It seems that he was a bit too low with that prediction...I guess Hillary will tell him he planned poorly in that regard too!!

The most important thing is that OBAMA PLANNED TO GO AT IT FOR 50 STATES WHILE CLINTON DID NOT. So Clinton can be childish and nitpick Obama's individual predictions. The point is he planned to be at this for 50 states while she thought it would be over on Super Tuesday. Too bad, Hillary.

Hillary also has a plan where she keeps changing her personality from region to region. Now she wants to be "Ms Blue-collar" while tagging Obama with this elitist label. Does she really think this will play well with Super Delegates? The fact that Obama shows himself to be the same person in all 50 states is a strategy that will work in the fall. This "ever-changing" Hillary will not work in the compressed voting season (one-shot) in November. Which Hillary will show up in November??

Let's just send her back to the Senate. I don't want to find out!!

[robXdion]

Why do commentators always cut in on someone's sentence by asking a question that was already answered??? Do they need clarification before you finish the sentence? That is so dam annoying.

[kellygrrrl]

must feed the ego beast
hungry hungry beast

[EyeWantOneNation]

Do I get a hint...just a whiff...of Hillary brushing off why she wouldn't win in Indiana...should she in fact lose ???

Obama won all the states neighboring his home state of Illinois !!!
Most of Indiana gets it's television feed from neighboring Illinois !!!
Obama has outspent her in Indiana !!!

Well...thanks Indiana...looks like you're for Obama !!!!

[ResidentChimp]

Dream on - Obama outspent Hillary in Pennsylvania too. Hillay should win by 10 in Indiana and lose by less than 5 in North Carolina. In most states the polls have been 3 points too low for Hillary and 3 points too high for Obama. These two shouldn't be any different. Omaba has had his defining moment when he stumbled on Wright and now there's nowhere for him to go but down.

[EyeWantOneNation]

LMAO !!!!

You don't know Presidential material when ya see it , sport !!!

[Turtleluv6]

Well it would've been nice if the corrected her percentage in PA when they found over 26,000 votes that were overlooked......I believe that change her percentage

[cathye]

ResidentChimp -- George W, is that you? So it's true you're a monkey! I always wondered about that.

Pennsylvania was Clinton's demographic stronghold -- she was 20 points ahead of him there two months ago. To have narrowed it to 9.2% is an amazing feat from the Obama camp. He scrambled his way up to that percentage while she was scrambling just as hard to hold up to her lead. That means 10% of the population there changed their mind after they got to know Clinton and Obama a bit better. Ten percent!

[MadFae]

It's this kind of snarky attitude that really turns me off to Clinton and her camp. The fact is, no matter what happens on Tuesday, she'll still be losing. Her justifications for staying in this race are shooting her in the foot. If she is more electable than Obama, her tactics are making her less so every day. It is becoming harder and harder to imagine voting for her in November, and if she pulls something nasty at the convention, there's going to be no way in hell she'll get Obama's supporters to vote for her. She is doing what my mom would call "cutting off her nose to spite her face."

[nolalily]

Hillary looks like she's put on some pounds in that picture.

[ThunderclapNewman]

It's just her over-inflated ego.

[EyeWantOneNation]

Heh heh !!!

[sangsue]

I loathe HRC and by default, I'm a Obama supporter. But don't start on stupid things like her weight. It makes you sound sexist. You'd never say that about a male candidate and it's irrelevant. Don't give her or her groupies any ammunition in where she can claim sexism.

[cathye]

Agreed here.

Besides, if the presidential nomination were won by grooming, Clinton would win hands down. I want the name of her hairdresser. It's fantastic every day.

But the position of POTUS is determined by policy, and Obama whoops both her and McCain soundly in the bottom in that respect. (I'd give him second place on the hair.)

[abby4ever]

This is so childish of Hillary. For childishness, it reminds me of when she said, "I opposed the Iraq war before Obama did!", like a child saying, "I saw it first!" She really has an immaturity about her that seems inconsistent with the presidency. Or maybe it's just pettiness.

[BatedBreath]

And theclintons thought they would have the nomination after super tuesday. Can anyone remember back that far?

[LaFilleEnRose]

Oh, Hill's getting smug. All I can say to her is remember her claims about the Kentucky Derby.

[cathye]

That poor horse.

RIP Eight Belles. You ran the race of your life, just like Hillary, but you panicked and didn't know when to stop running even after you'd already come in second.

[indieminded]

The Clinton camp: organized their campaign like they predicted victory by Super Tuesday, does that still stand?