Clinton Camp: Obama Document Predicted Indiana Victory, Does That Still Stand?

Back in February, the Obama camp mistakenly released a spreadsheet detailing their anticipated margins of victory (and defeat) in all upcoming primaries. With only days to go until Indiana, the Clinton camp is publicly musing whether Obama stands by his projection to win Indiana by seven points. The memo is below.

Meanwhile, the latest well-known Obama superdelegate isn't trying to tamp down expectations:

WALLACE: Let's -we've got about a minute left, we've got about a minute left, gentlemen, so let me ask you for some final predictions. What are we going to see Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina? Mr. Andrew, you start.

ANDREW: Tough races. Barack Obama is going to win. I think --

WALLACE: You think he's going to win both? You think he's going to win both, Mr. Andrew?

ANDREW: I think he's going to win both.

[WATCH]

To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?

Story continues below

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Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.

Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?

It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations - a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana's primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.

The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.

Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.

In North Carolina, Tuesday's other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.

The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families - who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?

Comments

[gregjones]

CNN IS THE NEW FOX !!!! As a news/political junkie I've always noticed how the media has led us like sheep regarding our invasion of Iraq. Daily I'd flip through cable news shows in search of TRUTH. I felt long ago, and Huffington recently exposed, how the military 'experts' were being paid by the Pentagon (aka Bush regime) to lie and mislead the American people regarding Iraq. This means all the cable networks have been part of this manipulation. NOW I'M NOTICING A NEW TREND AT CNN !!!! CNN has quietly made changes that are a bit scary. First, they brought Keran Gentry from Fox. Their overall tone started sounding more GOPish. They took Solidad and Miles, replaced them with John Roberts and Campbell Brown (husband works at Fox). Added Tony Snow (formerly of Fox and Bush's Press spokesperson)...now they've announced the addition of Bush's former spokewoman. Also, flip from CNN to FOX during Live broadcasts you'll see that they are using the same camera source, ie....WORKING TOGETHER !! These changes mean only 1 of 2 things. They expect Obama to get the nomination and want to join Fox (and much of MSNBC) in crushing him......or they've been notified by the regime that something big (bomb Iran?) is ahead....Either way the manipulative media is getting set for massive lieing.... Fooled us once (Iraq War)....but as they say....NEVER AGAIN !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Greg Jones
www.Blacks4Barack.org
(A Multi-Racial, Grassroots Org...Dedicated To Truth)

[nellie]

This doesn't strike me as very important.

[KISSman]

Here is one reason why the nuclear option will not work: Howard Dean. Does Clinton honestly think that she has any pull with him? These are the same people who were behind trying to thwart his campaign in 2004 and one of the ways they did so was by attempting to throw Wesley Clark into the mix.

Regardless, at this point, any way that Clinton could possibly win will alienate people in within our country a decade or two.

[LiberTLover]

Hillary dear, you were predicting being the nominee after Super Tuesday. How's that working out?

[FogBelter]

Obama is already ahead in every meaningful category ... doesn't the Clinton Campaign have anything substantive to offer?

[Thereandback]

To: My Staff
From: Hill
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Didn't My Campaign Make an Accurate Spreadsheet?

Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tell me, why couldn't you do the same for me??

[RobinL]

Hilldog, If the GOP weren't voting for you in huge numbers, you'd have been long gone. Obama's docs actually do reflect the results of what an honest contest would look like without Republican interference. Go f**k yourself!

[sanywhere]

while i agree with the sentiments here, no need for the profanity. i think that dulls your point.

[bigpipa]

I thought we had freedom of speech?

[rsg5354]

Hillary has some nerve. This woman will stop at nothing. Who really cares about predistions? Oh wait Hillary does. Will someone give this nut a sedative PLEASE?

[Thereandback]

But don't you see? His staff made accurate predictions ... that's intellectual elistism!
Her campaign is incompetent ... therefore her campaign is not elite.

[patch61]

all the people come togther and vote for sen.hillary clinton for president ...............we need our gas prices to go down , nuclar energy sounds great....cleaner air .......and we will have single mother surport and child care come on girls...............our boys need to come home , so lets stand in line and vote for sen.hillary clinton for our president......

[DSully]

She has shown a blatantly ability to lie, pander, and use fear politics. She is not what we need.

She can't even run a campaign. She failed at health care the first time around. She is immoral, untrustworthy, and most importatnly, her policies are BAD. She is like Bush, she listens to advice from other people and then makes only her own decisions. Please NC and Indiana, for the rest of America, vote Obama in '08. There is a reason why Obama gets the vote of those with college degree by 20% over Clinton--because he is a better candidate in every category.

[Turtleluv6]

I agree for all she claims she has done and experience her health care plan should of all ready been in action.........

[YBasil]

With exception of the "put folks out of work this summer" gas-tax holiday, Senator Obama has detailed plans for all of the issues you discuss, patch61.

[Nancyann]

Hillary Clinton is a LIAR, LIAR , LIAR!!!

IT IS A BEAUTIFUL THING TO WATCH HER, BILL AND HER CAMPAIGN IMPLODING..THEY HAVE TRULY LOST THIER MARBLES. SHE IS SCARY AND SEEMS TO HAVE A SEVERE PERSONALITY DISORDER.!!!!

[faithfully]

I believe she has narcissitic personality disorder

[SCG]

And she predicted it would be over after Super Tuesday.

[sanywhere]

right, does that still stand hillary?

[TNT2008]

Anyone else find it odd that almost all of Maryland's Superdels have endorsed Clinton yet Obama beat her in Maryland by 2 to 1? Talk about "testicular fortitude"!

[KillTheMessenger]

Speaking of super delegates endorsing Clinton and balls... I can vividly imagine what some of the ones who have endorsed her already would like to do with their own.

[Mitchell4A]

There may be good reasons for Democratic superdelegates to hold off on making a decision between Senators Clinton and Obama, but the national popular vote is not one of them. Over fifty years ago Jean-Paul Sartre warned us about something he called “bad faith.” We are in “bad faith” when we are free to make a decision but convince ourselves that there is something preventing us from making this decision. For example, those who seek advice can be in bad faith. They say that they cannot decide until they get some good advice, knowing in advance what the advice will be.

How does this relate to the so-called popular vote and the election? Well, if we can believe a lot of pollsters and journalists, the superdelegates really want to know what the national popular vote is going to be before they can make up their minds. Until they know, they cannot choose between Clinton and Obama. But for anyone who has seen some of the (often well intentioned) attempts to calculate the national popular vote, it should be obvious that no such total will be available.

For more, please see http://msa4.wordpress.com/

[Sophie22]

I'll vote for American pragmatism before I vote for French existentialism, which is old hat.

[KillTheMessenger]

Now, now, does the process not feel like Camus' "Myth of Sisyphus"?

Oh, well, knowing that book makes me "elitist", anyway, so according to Senator Clinton I have lost my right to vote, no matter what.

[sanywhere]

i think your explanation is a bit of a stretch. i think that satre is a brilliant man and can see how you made your connections; but, i think it can be simplified. they know what their choice would be if there was no consequence. they are about keeping the right friends in their profession. that was a choice that they made, and is existential in itself. it may feed to the "anxiety" that humanity tries to over come; but, they have made a choice. all in all, it just shows how flawed the system is, both in washington and in general.

[verlaine]

Tuesday's Primary Results

Indiana
Obama 51%
Clinton 49%

North Carolina
Obama 55%
Clinton 45%

Hillary will announce her withdrawal from the race by next Friday

[Sophie22]

Here's some Windex for that crystal ball.

[Nancyann]

VERLAINE, YOU'RE A genius!!!! I'M MAKING PHONE CALLS, HOW ABOUT YOU?

[KillTheMessenger]

No, she won't. She will say that Obama not having won with 120% of the vote in both elections means that the people really want her for president.

[steveflos]

And what will happen, if she wins Indiana and North Carolina? Will Obama withdraw from the race?

[MCANTI]

Well no, because he would still be winning. Do you think a baseball team who is winning by ten should leave the field after the opposing team scores two runs?

[MadFae]

Oh for god's sake, is this supposed to be a "gotcha?" Everyone has predictions. The fact is, it's close. We'll just have to wait and see.

[DSully]

It's not really that close. Clinton needs to win every state by a 65/35 split to catch Obama.

[nellie]

It's not close any more.