Clinton Camp: Obama Document Predicted Indiana Victory, Does That Still Stand?

Back in February, the Obama camp mistakenly released a spreadsheet detailing their anticipated margins of victory (and defeat) in all upcoming primaries. With only days to go until Indiana, the Clinton camp is publicly musing whether Obama stands by his projection to win Indiana by seven points. The memo is below.

Meanwhile, the latest well-known Obama superdelegate isn't trying to tamp down expectations:

WALLACE: Let's -we've got about a minute left, we've got about a minute left, gentlemen, so let me ask you for some final predictions. What are we going to see Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina? Mr. Andrew, you start.

ANDREW: Tough races. Barack Obama is going to win. I think --

WALLACE: You think he's going to win both? You think he's going to win both, Mr. Andrew?

ANDREW: I think he's going to win both.

[WATCH]

To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?

Story continues below

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Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.

Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?

It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations - a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana's primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.

The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.

Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.

In North Carolina, Tuesday's other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.

The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families - who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?

Comments

[dumboldfarmer]

I am sorry, Senator Clinton, but this dumb old farmer will not be voting for you. You do not pass the honesty test, the ethics test or the substance test. I truly hope people in Indiana are wise to your pandering, your snide remarks, your innuendos and your smears. I am really sick of your "Point, attack, cackle" speeches.

[KDH]

If you are a farmer who irrigates, you should be concerned about Obama's plan to give the feds oversight of State government water rights issues. He said as much in the Nevada debate, and you can view the transcript of it if you want to see for yourself.

[sanywhere]

he was addressing honesty and ethics. like clinton, you tried to change the subject. also, as a farmer he is probably more informed about the practice of farming than you. unless you are an expert on the field, i will take his stand with more substance, another issue you avoided.

[BonzaiBoy]

Am I missing something? Is the Clinton campaign bringing this up as if it's a negative act on behalf of the Obama campaign? If anything, this is proof of how IN TOUCH the Obama campaign has been all along, knowing full-well that this was going to be a close, tightly-contested race in which neither candidate would have the required number of delegates. It shows a remarkable sense of forethought that the Clinton campaign can only wish they had. I mean, isn't it the JOB of the campaign to predict the direction of the process and act accordingly?

[dbrockx]

Get a life HRC. You should have won in a lanslide in Pennsylvannia, since you are the hometown girl. It amazes me how when Obama wins the media kind of well he should of, but when HRC wins she won big. The media is a joke , they should be reporting the news, not making stuff up. What is wrong with Obama making a prediction? Remember, you should have won the race back in Feb, but you didn't. He has blown you out of the water and you and your media is doing everything they can to detroy Obama. CNN, Fox, A lot of MSNBC moderators. I thought there were only 2 cnadidates in the democratic race. When he wins, NC and Indiana, what will you say then. Even if he loses Indiana(not) you still can't catch hi. It's over. Bow out now while you still have some sort of appreciation by your voters. If the DNC was to do something stupid, like take the race from Obama, there is no way I would evere vote for YOU. NEVER!!!!!!!

[saram]

"You should have won in a lanslide in Pennsylvannia, since you are the hometown girl."

If we're going with that, she should have won EVERYWHERE by a landslide, since apparently she's a hometown girl in each state.

Psh. yeah right.

I agree. She needs to face reality and drop out now. Go back to being Senator (if NY will ever reelect you again...) Clinton.

I'll never vote for a Republican (and yes, I'm including Clinton).

[katefranklin]

Outspent means *outraised*. This whole bullsh*t line about outspending is Hillary's nonsensical way to cast herself as the underdog. It is lame and transparent. It even makes her sound like a sore loser. It's not Obama's fault that Hillary's campaign hasn't inspired widespread grassroots support.

[KillTheMessenger]

Every time the Obama campaign needs money, they send out emails to their donors. I used to get these emails very regularly. I haven't gotten one in a week. I don't think they need money. They are looking for NEW donors to round out that number, alright. But that is independent of money. I think the Obama campaign is so flush with money that they can afford to NOT raise now but let us donate for the general election. Which we will love to do.

[DMW1]

Now that you mention it, I haven't gotten one for a while either. You could have a point there...

[YBasil]

The Obama Campaign and the national DNC are working on an agreement for fund sharing because the DNC has money problems. I have not heard or read that the Clinton Campaign is planning a similar funding agreement for the DNC.

Please remember this contest also is about the Democrat Party winning in November. It is my humble opinion that Senator Obama, with the fund sharing and the 50-state voter plan, is proving his dedication to that goal.

Choose wisely. This old, "red" state white person believes Senator Obama is the answer.

[Myshkin57]

Is their argument that she should win because he has more people donating money? I'm confused. I thought the person with the most support is supposed to win. I must be in Bizarro-world, now.

[DMW1]

No, you're in Hillaryland. Grab a helmet and watch out for the sniper fire. And throw away your calculator too - we use a whole new kind of math!

[WFV]

It does not surprise me Hillary would balk at such a document from another campaign- it's called PLANNING, something her campaign doesn't have one solitary clue about, obviously.

The projections have held firm throughout the process, haven't they?

The election hasn't happened yet, dearie, and the way you're acting this weekend, the document may actually be inaccurate. Obama's margin of victory should increase.

[jupitor]

And this has to do with What? Don't get it? What is this for, bragging rights or what? He won guam yesterday by 7 votes, and Hillary would be saying a win is a win! Matter of fact I believe I heard them make that statement. I question rather he will win Indiana, but She won't win by much. I do think he will sweep N carolina and put her to rest. But than she will say, a win is a win even if I win by 3% in Indiana! You watch and see! She's such a panderer for the voters, and those who vote for her will surely vote for Obama, I'm sure. So she should just go away now.

[gnostic19]

I THINK they did have such a document, but it ceased projections after Super Tuesday. Some one over in the Clinton cam has way too much time and vitriol on their hands to make an issue out of this. You don't draw attention to your opponents ability to prepare for and predict, with 96% accuracy, the voting tendencies of the electorate. That only calls to attention your own campaigns sad, failed attempts to do the same.

[orianna]

How stupid the Clinton campaign is.... reaching the level of Bushisms that corporate oil likes in its puppets.

[ishy]

SO WHAT, Hillary? Senator Obama to date has won 31 states - compared to your pathetic figure of 15. HA HA HA !!!!!

[KillTheMessenger]

But, you see, she won the 15 important states. It's not even clear that the 30 places where Obama won have state status, her historians are checking that as we speak. And her geologists are going to announce tomorrow that the map of the USA is based on flawed geological data. There is Hillary country and then there is a vast salty inland sea. Obamaland does not exist.

[faithfully]

No I think she would say historians and geologists are elitists.

[aquarius2001]

Another question for Hillary...­she was supposed to close the deal by Feb 5...what happened? Also, why can't she close the deal with the African-American vote? (If she's always asking why can't Obama close the deal with small town whites).

[butterworth]

Oh my, Hillary. You sound confident. What do you know that we don't? Has Evan Bayh arranged some "voting irregularities" in your favor?

[vallon]

No, but the Supreme Joke-I mean Court-has.­..

[patch61]

how funny you want a person who whins to be the president i really think obama is scared sen hillary clinton will be president . president bush come on now we want sen hillay clinton for president . buba and my cousins down the road a piece we are all going to vote for sen. hillary clinton hey family we need to all get in line and vote for our next president that will be sen. hillary clinton because we need someone to take care of the gas problem how are we going to go out and ride our four wheelers and have picniks on the weekend... want someone not takin care of the kin folk......­.

[olivia]

It looks like the Obama camp predicted the results accurately almost 100% of the time.

Hillary's camp was going to sweep Super Tuesday, then sweep Pennsylvan­ia... their campaign was mismanaged into debt... they haven't gotten much right.

I wonder if this predicts the way each of them would run the country.

[mlaiuppa]

So a three month old memo has corrected predicted wins except for one.

I'd like to see a similar three month old Clinton spreadsheet and how many of *it's* predictions have come true.

[JavaCityGal]

I'd like to see the Clinton spreadsheet too, but it would end after February 5th.

[DMHendrix]

Exactly Java..she had NO plan to go past Super Tuesday. She can criticize Obama all she wants but he is the one that started with a 50 state strategy. She talks about others disenfranchising voters? What do you call only planning through Feb 5th? That's what you get for being presumptive and assume too much.

[eladora]

At least his campaign had a plan. Hers has been a mess because they mistakenly thought the dems would be so grateful to get bill back in the white house. Her campaign management is scary considering that is her management experience to bring to the table. Fast forward to the convention and Bill being a keynote speaker----- what kind of reception is he going to get ? Not what he planned on I guarantee it .

[MariaHopeful]

The Dishonorable Hillary Clinton! The pandering Hillary Clinton. How pathetic can one get?