Clinton Camp: Obama Document Predicted Indiana Victory, Does That Still Stand?

Back in February, the Obama camp mistakenly released a spreadsheet detailing their anticipated margins of victory (and defeat) in all upcoming primaries. With only days to go until Indiana, the Clinton camp is publicly musing whether Obama stands by his projection to win Indiana by seven points. The memo is below.

Meanwhile, the latest well-known Obama superdelegate isn't trying to tamp down expectations:

WALLACE: Let's -we've got about a minute left, we've got about a minute left, gentlemen, so let me ask you for some final predictions. What are we going to see Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina? Mr. Andrew, you start.

ANDREW: Tough races. Barack Obama is going to win. I think --

WALLACE: You think he's going to win both? You think he's going to win both, Mr. Andrew?

ANDREW: I think he's going to win both.

[WATCH]

To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?

Story continues below

Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.

Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?

It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations - a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana's primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.

The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.

Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.

In North Carolina, Tuesday's other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.

The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families - who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?

Comments

[gregjones]

HAS HILLARY LOST THE ENTIRE BLACK VOTE....FOREVER !!!

This is the message being sent by blacks to the DNC (and the superdelegates). There is no way Hillary will defeat McCain without the support of Black America aka the guaranteed Democratic vote. Hillary started out with 82% of the black support. But as Blacks learned more about her (Goldwater Girl...Against Civil Rights Act '64....It was LBJ...Not MLK....etc) combined with Bill's (...fairy tale....Jessie Won S.C. too...etc.)...blacks were shocked beyond repair. (remember....we luved Bill so much we called him 'The First Black President')....but never again....WHERE'S THAT STORY. This has nothing to do with Obama !!!! We (blacks) have awakened to the truth about the Clintons......

Greg Jones
www.Blacks4Barack.org
(A Multi-Racial, Grassroots Org...Dedicated To Truth)

p.s. Blacks4Barack.org started in Feb. 2007 (Greg Jones) when VERY few blacks were for Obama.....they were ALL for Hillary !!!!! We knew that Obama was the best person to run our country and bring our troops home and that is why we started our grassroots organization. (Not because he's black...but because he's most qualified) The more black voters learned about Obama...the more they liked him.... the more they learned about the Clintons....the angrier they got !!!!!!!!!!!!!! We appreciate our friends of ALL races....who are working together....for the very best candidate....to put America on the right track.....Barack Obama ! THANK YOU !

[the964kid]

Im sure Hillary's documents claim she will win Indiana aswell - so what?! As I recall Obama won states he didn't expect to win: like Connecticut and Wisconsin.

[TrueThis]

Don't forget Delaware.

[Independent voter]

Now we know who burgalized the Obama campaign office

[harriscrl3]

Hilary and her people are DUMB as dirt or they think the voters and Americans are DUMB. They guy took a hit with the Wright controversy of course he didnt factor that in just like she didnt factor in a Two year Senator that was virtually unheard of would come and be in FIRST PLACE ahead of her and the Clinton Machine.

I bet if Obama wins both they still have some ridiculous spin. If they took less time spinning and more concern with their campaign and its message maybe they would be in better shape as it is they are pathetic and are pandering to a vulnerable population who is feeling the gas squeeze with NONSENSE that they KNOW benefit big Oil. Then have the nerve to get a shell lobbyist to say that their gas plan is good for consumers. I just hope the American people are too smart to fall for this pathological bordering on delusional LIAR.

Carol

[utd]

Someone should put together a collected works of memos from their campaign. Every time I read them I get a great kick out of them since they are so asinine. They put out these attack memos, and try to make people react to them and respond, but no one ever asks the Clinton's what they expected to win Indiana and NC by. When this got released why didn't anyone ask HRC why the race has gone on so long since she was supposed to put Obama down by Super Tuesday.

Just another pathetic attempt at trying to control the dialog, and what questions "we should be asking" instead of asking our own f-ing questions.

[harriscrl3]

You know whats SAD that Main stream media doesnt see her as the JOKE that she is. They actually validate that this woman make sense when in reality her SANITY should be questioned. The idea of people like possibly being in charge sends a cold chill through my body. This is George Bush ALL over someoen who does NOT take responsibility for their actions who instead blame everyone else. We must be the JOKE of the global community. I'm looking forward to the day when it finally dawns on her that its OVER.

Carol

[greejambri]

She is pathological, as in a legitimate example of a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. I say this as a licensed psychologist. I have worked with people like Hillary Clinton. She is a damaged individual, and will do even greater damage to the party and the country in the pursuit of her bottomless narcissistic needs.

[Taaj]

Ms. Hilary Clinton, "read my lips", no matter what happens on Tuesday the margins will not change the game. You came into this race believing you had all the advantages, the color of your skin, a historical movement, power brokers, "experience", the DNC, one/half of African Americans supporting you, women across America excited for you, the admiration and affection for your husband by many of the electorate. WHAT HAPPENED?

You believed the American people were stupid, naive, able to be manipulated, or that we were just plain idiots; and we saw through your lies, distortions, pandering and ingenious laughter.

We are sad, because you could have made every young girl in the United States proud; win or lose. But that historical moment was not important to you; you no more took care of our daughters when you took that shot of whiskey and touted your gun, than you cared about Chelsea; allowing serial adultery to humiliate her life.

So not this time HRC, you need more experience at being a WOMAN, before you become the first female president of the United States!

[mntnguy]

Heck no she is not listening to anyone at this point! she thinks she knows it all and there for does not need to listen to anyone!

her latest stump speech complete lie now coming out!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5797673

Go Obama 08 Yes We Can

pass this link around!

[CTmom13]

COUNTDOWN to the nomination....Only 277 more total delegates needed

Obama 08

[karela]

Hey, do us a really useful service Hill and give us an actual copy of the Obama memo about the races that are coming. Apparently the memo only got one state wrong---they said he'd lose Maine, but he won it. What does the memo have to say about the last races this month? Come on, share. I'm so glad to know that we're going to win IN. Zogby was right last time in PA and it's nice to have a little confirmation that he's right about Indie too. Thanks!

This article from Boston today is a great article about how this race has gone. Enjoy!
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/05/04/small_state_plan_pays_dividends_for_obama/?page=3

[Msohio]

Keep reaching low Hillary. John McCain is with you as another candidate lacking vision. You (Hillary) are labeling women and blue collar workers as people without the ability to analyze or comprehend. Your latest stupid remark is that experts who do not agree with your gas tax gimmick are elitists and the rules of the game must be changed for you because of the Clinton brand. You have replaced the right wing "liberal" tag with the Clinton tag "elitist". Blumenthal's antics will forever be tagged to you. We won't forget.

[TNT2008]

Love how Hillary uses Obama's stats and keeps all of hers hidden. She is becoming less attractive every day. My hope is that every single member of Congress and every single Senator or Representative past and present never forget about how dishonest she is when it comes to getting her way. I say, New York needs to cut her loose just like North Carolina needs to cut Elizabeth Dole loose. Who do these women think they are? One needs to go back to Arkansas and the other needs to go back to Kansas!

[Onefamily]

I often fascinated by reports on how much each candidate spends.

How does one define the 'asset' of being married to a previous President of the United States? The financial worth of being a 'first lady'. While Obama may be spending significantly more then Clinton it seems obvious to me that anyone running against the spouse of a former president would need to. Of course there are liabilities that come with it however the extreme inherent financial benefits seem to go unspoken.

[Stringer32]

Wow someone's feeling bit cocky and arrogant. I want see the spread sheets her campaign has predicting were she would be at, at this point in the race. It would be halarious if he wins by more than 7 points but we know thats unlikely to happen.

[velveteagle]

She could win Indiana.. But I don't care for the rules she is going bye. I was brought up to play fair. I know that the rules are a bit less in moral views nowadays. But if you throw dirt into a persons eyes when you have a race and you come in first... Do you really win ???

[globality]

google Magnequench AND clinton

[dumboldfarmer]

I can't wait until Monday to see what trash the Clinton campaign tries to throw at Obama. They seem to always do it right before a vote.