$200 Oil Prediction Pumps Price Higher

Crude oil prices could surge to $200 a barrel in the next two years, according to the Goldman Sachs analyst who three years ago correctly predicted a price "super-spike" above $100 a barrel.

The warning by Arjun Murti came as oil prices hit a fresh high above $122 a barrel, boosted by supply disruptions in Nigeria, lower output in Russia and continued robust demand in China ahead of the Olympics.

Mr Murti said the energy crisis could be coming to a head as a lack of adequate supply growth was becoming apparent.

He said: "The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months."

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[richardmcnoggin]

Hey Ive got a good idea! Lets drill in ANWAR and off the coast of Florida and Falicornia and in North Dakota and Montana and everywhere else OPEC cannot dictate the price.....And dont tell me it will take ten years to get this oil into the supply line; you said that ten years ago when you first raised a stink about ANWAR....OOPS....Look in the mirror LIBERAL LIARS... YOU caused the prices to rise due to the HOAX of damage to the environment and now the oil companies are happy profit from this and to side with YOU!!!!!

[Coyote2]

Another Dreamer: if only we had more holes in the ground.....

There is not enough potential production capacity in all those holes you want to drill to satisfy our thirst for oil. If we could pull all that oil up within one year, it would NOT meet even half our needs for that year.

Of course we CANNOT pull that much oil up that fast, and it would take 20 to 30 years to suck that oil up. Thus its potential to satisfying our demands is a mere daily drop in the bucket.

You conservatives and libertarians are all alike: heads in the sand; fast asleep and dreaming. For the sake of your SUV greed you'd poke holes into the livingrooms of the nations to suck up our excess fat, wouldn't you?

[Coyote2]

randyjet posted: 'The FACT is that oil supply world wide has increased 2.5%'

I really wonder where you are getting your figures from? And how can a tiny increase in oil reserves help increase production output? 2.5% more oil in the ground (best guesstimate) does not equate more oil in the barrel, especially considering that all the easy oil is gone and more technology and energy is required to get that oil into the barrel.

Tar and shale oil reserve estimates increased? Big deal, considering that it takes ONE BARREL of oil input to produce 2 barrels of tar oil. And it takes TWO BARRELS of (non-reusable) water to produce each barrel of tar oil in territories were there is no water to spare. The world's largest dam holds back a monstrous lake of poisoned water.

It is easy to play the dreamer game with oil and blame speculators when your only evidence is that past speculation has created price bubbles. I am sure that speculation can be blamed for a handful of dollars, but this oil pricing has steadily increased over the decade from $15 to $123.56 today. Doubling from a low of $58 a year ago.

[Coyote2]

And what is the stock market anyways, except speculation. The tech bubble was betting on a possible future as much as it was betting on the greater-fool. What do you think paying 50X earnings for a stock is anyways, except belief in the greater fool theory. Are you saying that CAPITALISM, that the American Dream, that Free Enterprise is to blame? Speculators are merely practicing what America preaches.

Whatever it is that you are mumbling, the fact remains: the American way of life is under attack by the dual headed monster of the new century, Energy Scarcity and Climate Change. How we respond to these issues will define America in the 21'st century, and playing the blame game whilst having your head in the sand will do nothing to fill your tank nor protect your wallet.

America, this is the bed we made with our addiction to excessive consumption: sleep in it.

[sixthskinjob]

"America, this is the bed we made with our addiction to excessive consumption: sleep in it."
Indeed. A bed of nails, unfortunately
Death of a thousand punctures?

[mamacat]

The oil corporations have a stake in maintaining our dependence on oil. We need a government led effort to find many ways to improve the way we do things, from how we travel, to how we power our transportation system, to how we make electricity, to how we grow food. Businesses will only do what is profitable in the short run, and do not want to change their business models unless forced to do so. Unfortuneately, corporate lobbyists have an overriding influence on the govenment, and have gotten enough politicians to do their bidding to prevent us from getting off of oil.

[BlackbirdHighway]

If only our politicians would wear f**king flag pins! That would take care of all these problems!

[TXfemmom]

Okay, OPEC has a monopoly on oil, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are the primary food baskets of the world in terms of wheat, corn, and soy. There are other, smaller exporters, but most are very pale indeed compared to those four countries.

The oil producers want a Cartel on oil? We should form one for FOOD. The Saudis, Kuwaitis, and Iranians want $200 a barrel for oil, then the United States and the Food Cartel will feed them for $1,000 or $2,000 a bushel for wheat, corn, soy, and the meat such as chicken, beef, lamb which require the feed. Countries which are not part of OPEC or do not support them, get a subsidized price, and domestic consumption with the Food Cartel is protected as to price and supply. Then, let them take it to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria, the UAE, Iran, and all the oil producers who are gouging.

They can't eat oil people, and three months of $150 bread and $100 a pound for chicken or beef, and governments such as in Iran would fall if their people go hungry. It is a case of stab me, and I'll hand you starvation and a fatal blow.

Let the Saudis, Iranians, Kuwait, the UAE, and the rest EAT SAND, and don't Venezuela has to import seventy percent of their food.

This oil situation is just as much or more threat to our security as Pearl Harbor and on 9/11.

[LibRS]

I agree. I have been saying this for a while. One thing the US does have is good farmers and lots of farmland. We should use it to our advantage. The muslims have the oil but they can't grow much in the sand.

The other thing the governement should look into is taking crude oil futures OFF of the futures market. These futures traders are making money had over foot whether the oil is going up or down. As long as it is moving, they are making money at 99.9% of the rest of the populations expense! I promise you that you can trace a huge chunk of present day prices right back to these futures traders.
Oil is a monopoly in itself. Anytime opec whispers a mere thought of cutting production, they know the futures traders are going to run up the market. Anytime an oil companies mentions a refiner taking some downtime, the traders run up the price. Go to Bloomberg's commodities page and read the insane little articles to the right about why crude is going up. Oil companies and opec manipulate the futures market at will! It isn't about supply and demand, it is about manipulation of a captured market.

Now for the real shocker,,,,,,,,,,,,, i'm a neocon conservative.

[djthedj]

Simplistic nonsense...let me guess, you're a republican. If so, the very people you keep electing are the problem. What did you think would happen to the price of oil when you elected two oil whores into the whitehouse?

[Weathermaker]

Can you please stop posting this nonsense?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_wheat_production_statistics

Wheat production:

Iran: 14.5 million metric tons
Population: 66 million
Per person: 220 kg

US: 57.1 million metric tons
Population: 300 million
Per person: 190 kg

So how exactly are the Iranians gonna starve when they produce more wheat per person then the US does?????

[sixthskinjob]

Exactly.
There are some who insist on clinging to the outdated notion that the rest of the world is totally dependant on US food imports. If one were so inclined, they could do a little digging and discover that the US will shortly, if it is not already, become a net food importer.
Hmm, kinda sounds similar to another commodity that we use quite heavily.
Don't worry though, there soon will be a bumper crop of crow that will need consuming.
What does one prefer....fried or barbequed?

[ecopan]

It's very unpleasant trend, it's getting more and more expensive to use a car :(
http://www.ecopanteh.com/en/

[mrBlue1]

It's all about the power of suggestion and our oil baron run government who need to set us up for the future further massive inflation and demise of the dollar necessitating them to jack prices symbolically NOW to get us lubed up for the bendover it'll take for them to continue to live like kings on the near worthless dollars they thought they'd accumulated enough of these past 8 years.

[randyjet]

If speculation is not the cause, then why not stop putting the oil into the SPR? It will certainly help stop the price rise at the least. Clinton wants to do that and the SPR is at 97% right now and we can certainly afford to do it. Of course, it MIGHT cause the boom to go BUST. Even better Obama should break with BUSH who wants to keep on putting oil into the SPR. Why does Obama agree with BUSH on taking oil OFF the market?

[randyjet]

Goldman Sachs says that oil is going to $200/bbl and the price of oil spikes UP. Yet dummies continue to deny that speculation is NOT the fact of the oil price rise. Despite a surplus of gasoline, demand down 4% from last year, oil stocks being at high levels, refineries operating at only 80-85%, this is incredible that the price rises. Speculation could not be the cause could it?
Old Joe Kennedy must be laughing his ass off. This is the old Kennedy scam that Joe used to make his millions.

[Sundialsvc4]

More specifically, what we're going to see is the permanent repudiation of "The United States Dollar" as "the world's reserve-currency for oil transactions." It never was a good idea in the first place, of course, but for a great many good reasons it is utterly inconceivable now.

When that happens, the power-plug just got permanently pulled on the Great American "Money" Machine.

For approximately the last thirty-five years, America has been able to literally print money, which it now does to the tune of about $1 million a MINUTE, which ostensibly was backed by black-gold. But, particularly in the last half of that time, America has utterly violated both the expectations of the business community and ... infinitely more serious ... the world community.

How do you -- maybe? -- pull the plug on "World War Episode Three: The Revenge of the Nukes?" Maybe, and only JUST maybe, you can do it by pulling the plug on the United States' virtually-nonexistent economy. If gasoline is $6 or $7 or $10 a gallon, maybe $15 or $20, then EVENTUALLY it stands to reason that "the American people, wherever the heck they are" will actually wake up. There is a SLIM chance that "Rosie the Riveter" is still out there; that the muscle-bound and trustworthy "Uncle Sam" of those World War II posters is still alive.

Somewhere.

Maybe.

The world hopes.

[plages]

Hell, why not make it $500 a gallon! Why, because there is no energy plan, or infrastructure plan, or education plan, or water plan, or agriculture plan, or savings plan, or military plan, or economic plan, or health plan, or recourses plan!

[localman]

Huh interesting that the crackpot conspiracy loons reported that the consensus agenda over at the Bilderberg meeting was to take oil to $200/barrel.. and now what do we have? GS providing official cover. Phew! Nothing has changed.

But the facts remain the facts the price of oil is driven by 'paper oil' speculation (hedge funds) via futures trading in conjunction with a sliding dollar and followed way back out there in the distance by actual supply and demand.

a good read on oil by F. William Engdahl

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8878

[wmbear]

I PREDICT...

Hybrids will be very VERY big in the coming years. (Yep, definitely a no-brainer, just like all those SUV and commuter Hummer and pickup drivers. -- How do you tell a commuter pickup? The buttoned-down truck bed. Use it to haul something? My god, that might scratch the finish!)

[mrBlue1]

Yeh, like all those four wheel drive vehicles with winches and all the heavy duty gear who would never consider helping pull their neighbor out of a ditch on the way to their yoga class or pedicure appointment.

[richardmcnoggin]

Yea, Yea, yea.... I sure everyone with a gas guzzler SUV and all the truckers and all the people who bought hummers are just going to drop all the vehichles off at the junkyard and have them crushed.....default on their 60- 72 month car loans and rush right out to buy a Prissyius.... RIIIIIIIIGHT.........

[mamacat]

Our culture glorifies the idea that bigger is better, especially when it comes to personal transportation. Sometimes better is just better, and not necessarily bigger; but that is way too complicated for some people. Give me a symbol I can understand, like a Chinese-made American-flag flag pin. As long as my leaders are wearing flag pins, and vetoing meaningful alternative energy bills, I know that I and my kids can sleep soundly at night, even if we can't affford to turn on the heater, drive the Humvee, or pay the mortgage.

[wolf58]

yea yea and there will be storms,terrorist attacks, pipeline failure and oil will someday hit 1000. If someone just farts they jack the price. Start sending people to jail for this crap and watch how quick prices drop.

[mediamarv]

Here's today's list of excuses:

The warning by Arjun Murti came as oil prices hit a fresh high above $122 a barrel, boosted by supply disruptions in Nigeria, lower output in Russia and continued robust demand in China ahead of the Olympics.

Awfully convenient that each day there seems to be different reasons. Russia's output fluctuates all the time, so that is no story. Robust demand from China has been a factor for several years now, according to analysis that I read earlier this year..
what we have here is fiction disguised as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Wind fall profit tax anyone???

[Coyote2]

I am increasingly amazed at American resiliency to absorb facts; to our stubborn desire to hold tight the obsolete American Dream.............yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus and oil prices will come down if you but believe.

Russia's output does not 'fluctuate all the time;' the market was shocked by Russian 2007 production shortfalls.

'Robust demand from China may have been a factor for several years,' but a 14% increase in Chinese consumption in the face of an entire year of steadily increasing prices, especially considering America's dropping demand (and increasing oil reserve purchases) is not insignificant!

Your dismissal of a real and steadily growing crisis as mere speculation (localman) or Bilderberg is silliness and reflects a lack of research and common sense. How can a doubling of price within a year be blamed upon speculation if there was supply to meet the rising price? Remember FREE MARKETS?

Oil was $15 the year before G.W.Bush took office. Every year the price is higher. The reality is that the supply is NOT there, as the price reacts sharply to any supply disruption.

We are addicted to cheap energy and cannot face reality: this is the end of cheap energy; this is the century of energy scarcity AND climate change. Wake up.

[randyjet]

The FACT is that oil supply world wide has increased 2.5% in the first quarter and demand is up 2%. US gasoline supplies are at record levels and refineries are at only 80-85%of capacity. The FACT is that speculation is driven by itself. It has no relation to supply except at the end of the bubble. This is old Joe Kennedy's scam going on. Remember the dot com bust? The shares had NO relation to reality despite a lot of folks saying that this boom was silly. The companies had never made a dime in profit, had no capital assets,but the boom went on. All it took was speculation and the herd mentality to keep it going.
It really takes a DUMMY to think that speculation is not the factor when Goldman Sachs says oil is going to $200/bbl and the price SPIKES again. Let me know when you come back to reality and stop believing BUSH.