Exit Polls: Limbaugh Effect Seems To Rear Its Head

Did Rush Limbaugh actually impact the Democratic primary?

The loud-mouthed radio talk show host has been encouraging Republicans to vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton to continue the "chaos" in the Democratic race. And a sampling of some key exit poll information suggests he may, to a certain extent, be having an effect.

Thirty-six percent of primary voters said that Clinton does not share their values. And yet, among that total, one out of every five (20 percent) nevertheless voted for her in the Indiana election. Moreover, of the 10 percent of Hoosiers who said "neither candidate" shared their values, 75 percent cast their ballots for Clinton.

These are not small numbers. By comparison, of the 33 percent of voters who said Sen. Barack Obama does not share their values, only seven percent cast their ballots in his favor. Basically, more people who don't relate to Clinton are, for one reason or another, still voting for her. These are not likely to be loyal supporters.

On a broader level, among the 17 percent of primary goers who said they would choose Sen. John McCain over Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up, 41 percent of that group came from Clinton's own camp. In essence, roughly seven percent of Clinton support in Indiana (40 percent of 17 percent) said they would defect to the Republican should she end up the nominee. That would be a difficult punch to stomach in November. In 2004, nearly 1 million Indianans voted for John Kerry. A seven percent defection rate would have meant 70,000 less votes.

By contrast, if the general election is between Obama and McCain, 19 percent of the Indiana Democratic primary goers said they would support the Republican. But only 12 percent of that group (2.28 percent) would come from Obama's camp.

The numbers suggest one of three things: A) Clinton's support in Indiana, while clearly there, is not entirely solid; B) a large swath of Indiana primary goers simply didn't like the nominees and thought of Clinton as the lesser of two evils; or C) Limbaugh's hatchet plan could be having political ripples.

Perhaps it's a mix of all three.

Comments

[newsketeer]

Playing dirty is part of the Republican family values package.

[hoopesaz]

You must have missed the big DailyKOS article asking democrats do the exact same thing to throw the republican race in turmoil back in January. They even provided a template letter/e-mail to be used in recruiting others to the cause.

Dirty tricks are an unfortunate side of politics. They are shared by both parties.

[GhostOfSchlesinger]

THE UNINTENDED RESULTS OF LIMBAUGH'S GAMBLE
post #1 of 2

As John McCain defends the last outpost of Barry Goldwater's 1964 "Cactus Revolt" the voters are beginning to sense his deafness to the moment - and to the pressing issues of our age.

And that's why Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" will be remembered more for its long-term unintended consequences than for it's immediate results.

By supporting the "temporary" registration of Republicans as Democrats Limbaugh has broken a critical rule of marketing: He has set up a scenario that requires two actions on the part of consumers, a cycle that terminates with voters re-registering as Republicans - a notion that presumes deep right wing political sentiments on the part of moderate Americans. Such a presumption, coming at a time of incredible socio-political flux represents a dire misstep. For, the social issues that originally drew conservative, working class Americans to the Republican Party - rumbling, racist disappointment with Democratic support for civil rights - are dying with the current generation of senior citizens.

And with the African-American vote a 90 percent given for Barack Obama, the Republicans cannot afford to confront dwindling rolls and a rising awareness on the part of all these newly-minted Limbaugh Democrats that the Limbaugh/Goldwater/McCain version of the Republican Party never has and never will care about the interests of people that work for a living.

[GhostOfSchlesinger]

THE UNINTENDED RESULTS OF LIMBAUGH'S GAMBLE
post #2 of 2

Worst of all for Republicans, Limbaugh has extended the vetting process for Barack Obama. Sean Hannity is frothing at the mouth over Reverend Wright and the "Obama-Ayers connection." Smart politicos witness this and say, "Too early. Way too early."

Indeed, by the time of the conventions and the general election, the voters will look upon the guilt by association tactics deployed by the Clintons and Republicans as a game of "Six Degrees from Kevin Bacon."

Meanwhile, having suffered in the shadow of intensified and Limbaugh-lengthened media focus on the Democratic campaign, the invisible McCain will emerge just in time for his dirty laundry to actually effect the election results. The Savings & Loan scandal of the 1980's will hit the electoral bottom line with all the impact of an "October Surprise" along with all the strange, racist and bigoted bedfellows that have overstayed their welcome in the Republican tent that Ronald Reagan erected on Barry Goldwater's foundation.

You see, the problem with trying to put spin on the ball is that media is no longer a controlled entity, and the wildfires of politics burn across the political plains in mere moments.

Hence, having stoked the fires of the Democratic contest and "cynicized" Republican voters, Rush Limbaugh will play a pivotal a role in the election of Barack Obama as the next president of the United States.

[JRandomPoster]

Interesting take on this whole thing.

[tonn]

those who vote for Obama seem to do so because they like him, those who vote for her may be voting simply against him.
when is race going to be discussed with more candor?
Why has she been winning the so called big states? People who have experience with blacks have the opportunity to have negative experience, people from New hampshire, don't. They don't have any experience, so they don't have a negative one. Since when is her base some blue collar , beer swilling machinist? It isn't it. It is a base of anti Obama.
If she pulled the superdelegates out of her ass and went up against McCain, she would not beat him,
for this reason alone.

[Chavez08]

Liberals need to get nasty. I am volunteering my services to the DNC and I am very, very much looking forward to head-to-head with GOP operatives.

Who says the Left can't have their own Liddys and Hunts?

[rickmv]

If you really want to help the country just stay home.

[Chavez08]

No thanks, I prefer to visit Limbaugh fans...

[KBAR]

Who says the Left can't have their own Liddys and Hunts?

Liddy and Hunt say so.

[BlackWidowPilot]

K-ration,

when will you just give it up? You keep defending the "party of family values" and it's doddering old fool "Hundred Years War" McCain, knowing full well about their actual performance record:

http://www.armchairsubversive.org

"Family values" only recognizable to David Koresh or Caligula, K-ration.

900+ *documented* lies about WMDs and debunked claims about connections between Saddam Hussein and 9/11, billions in taxpayer cash missing in Iraq, mercenaries, defective body armour, unarmoured humvees, rotting food and contaminated water served to our troops by Cheney crony KBR, foreclosure epidemic, runaway foreign debt, "Heckuvajob" Brownie and Hurricane Katrina, ad infinite vomitus and you still staunchly defend the "Gang of Pedophiles?"

As was asked of a fellow member of the extremist corporate right of a past generation, I ask of you, K-ration: Have you no shame, sir?

Leland R. Erickson

Citizen

[rickmv]

You're "looking forward to 'head to head'? It's not that kind of party sweetie.

[Chavez08]

I'm sure if I were a boy under 14, i'm sure Limbaugh salad tossers would be all over it....

[kl836]

Oh I must be confusing the Gannons, the Roves, the Foleys , the Haggards and uh what's that dude's name again who has "the wide stance" in the stall with the wrong party. And who's lesbian daughter recently gave birth. The good ol party continually spouting lies and propaganda until they and their sheep call it truth while I call it delusional.

[rickmv]

By the way little guy, his name was Libby, not Liddy.

[Chavez08]

Heads-up, tosser:

Put down your swisher-sweet and fish anything with the words "Watergate" out of your GOP sponsored book fire. After that, feel free to make any correction your little heart desires.

Thanks for playing, cupcake!

[AvgPseudoIntellectual]

Ok, so you've never heard of G. Gordon Liddy? Best to look things up before you go correcting other people.

[zoozey]

"by the way little guy,"----------- his name was G. Gordon LiDDY, not LiBBY.

For chrissakes, bone up on your pop culture before you derisively call someone "little guy."

[oh2beinNYC]

OPERATION CHAOS is working better than it ever could have been expected. This is a double edged sword on two fronts:

1) Divide the democrat party (DONE)
2) Eliminate the Clinton's forever (DONE)

Rush knows and most liberals are truly realizing that Barack Hussein Obama is not electable. The GOP will rip him apart on a host of reasons but the primary reason BHO will lose in a massive landslide defeat is

1) He has lost the older, white woman vote

2) He has been losing support on 30+ white men and will lose approx. 70% against John McCain

3) He will not get the Latino vote against John McCain (Most latinos have a disregard for African Americans and would never vote for BHO for president)

4) He will lose most 60+% of the Jewish vote

5) His closeness with Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers & Rezko will be a hurdel that he will not be able to overcome.

So basically Barack Hussein Obama is counting on his welfare dependant black base, who by the way already vote democrat in excess of 85% and the idiotic less than 30 year old white vote.

This was a double fake by Rush Limbaugh to eliminate Hillary (while dragging this out as long as possible) and get Barack Hussein Obama the nomination because Ruch knows BHO will be crushed in the General Election. Remember.... Rush is right 98.8% of the time - this has never been disputed and proved wrong by anyone.

McCain 08

[JRandomPoster]

"Rush is right 98.8% of the time - this has never been disputed and proved wrong by anyone."

I dispute it.

As far as your statistic, look up "Argumentum ad ignorantiam" sometime.

[BlackWidowPilot]

"Rush is right 98.8% of the time"

Demonstrably clinically delusional. A prime example of the sort of sad, weak-minded and easily manipulated personalities that populate such cults as $cientology, the Branch Davidians, or the polygamists so recently raided here in Texas.

Sad.

Leland R. Erickson

Citizen

[BigLib]

Obamatrons will be begging for Hillary to return by July.

DRAFT HILLARY!

[indypete]

Here it is again... Barack HUSSEIN Obama. Hey, asshole... we get it, he's got a middle name. Now grow up and stop using tactics that went out with 7th grade.

[therealredstateblues]

Exactly,Hussein is as common as "Steve" or "John" in other parts of the world

How absolutely pathetic to make fun of his middle name.

I bet 02binnyc's middle name is fauntleroy or something dorky like that

[kl836]

Wow now they're attributing prophetic powers to the "Rush" (it's enough he does it himself) . And when Senator Obama wins they'll say that was Rush's double double fake, in order to gear up for the 2012 election Rush was responsible for Senator Obama's win. Ya see, by that time the idiotic less than 30 year old vote will then be idiotic older than 30 voters and blah, blah blah....

"Rush is right 98.8% of the time - this has never been disputed and proved wrong by anyone."

If ya don't listen to or read anything else Rush is right at least 98.% of the time, livin in a bubble.

And why do you think Mr O2bein makes a point of writing Barack Hussein Obama, simply because that's his name? Yeah right.

[BigLib]

Limbaugh throws support to 'weaker' Obama

Rush Limbaugh, between crowing about the success and attention of his "Operation Chaos," switched sides in the Democratic primary this morning.

"I now urge the Democratic superdelegates to go publicly make your mind up for Obama," he said.

Earlier, he said, "I'm now tempted to tell superdelegates to pick Obama because I now believe he would be the weakest nominee."

Limbaugh had been urging his listeners to support Hillary as the only chance for Republican victory in November, and to extend the Democratic primary. Exit polls and anecdotes suggest that many did.

Not sure there are really a lot of dittoheads among the superdelegates, however.

Also, he took an obligatory shot at McGovern, who just called on Clinton to drop out.

"Mcgovern in his lifetime wants to see someone lose worse than he did," he said.

[JohnKemp]

If you're going to tell the story, at least be accurate.

Rush did not want Hillary or Obama to be the Dem nominee; he simply wanted the process to be as lengthy & ugly as possible, costing the Dems cash & giving the Republicans more talking points.

In no way did he ever support Hillary's bid becasue he viewed her to be the "weaker" candidate.

[KBAR]

SHEEEESH! Don't tell'um the game plan! Then they would have to admit that they didn't 'know it all' before.

[BlackWidowPilot]

"If you're going to tell the story, at least be accurate."

Coming from you, Johnny Reb Kemp, I find this assertion simply hilarious!

Johnny Reb Kemp is an historical revisionist quack and staunch partisan of the Social Darwinist "Gang of Pedophiles" who has agued most vehemently on the HuffPo forums that the *North* started the American Civil War, only Herr Kemp calls that bloody conflict to preserve the Union and that ended slavery the "War of Northern Aggression."

And Herr Kemp has the bald-faced audacity to demand *accuracy* from another poster?

Stunning.

Leland R. Erickson

Citizen

[kl836]

This is their idea of a free and democratic America. The freedom to do anything justbecause you want to, whether it's irresponsible, unethical, or illegal. The means always justify the ends and the highest value is to "win" at all costs. It's repulsive

[Groovacious]

What's great about all this is that if Obama can come within a couple of percentage points even with the so-called "Operation Chaos" in effect, then he truly is a real winner. And surely the "Superdelegates" are paying attention of what Limbaugh has done. In that case his plan has backfired.

[Apples]

I don't what the answer is or what should be done about him, but... anyone who intentionally manipulates our democratic purpose then gleefully celebrates it is nothing other than a true enemy of the country.

This man has no interest in democracy. He is a disgrace; an ugly American with little interest in the American way other than what he can selfishly milk out of it for himself, and usually at the expense of others.

[KBAR]

So, Are you against the entire 1st Amendment or just the free speech part?

[HumeSkeptic]

What a ridiculous comment!

Where did Apples say anything about curtailing anyone's free speech right?

I have noticed that most of your comments miss the point entirely. It seems that you just randomly copy'n paste some ready talking points, regardless of what you are responding to. You must be a dittohead.

[Javalation]

Do you only oppose that free speech right when it's someone expressing an opinion you don't like? After all, that's all Apples was doing, expressing an opinion.

[JRandomPoster]

That response is known as a "Complex question". It is like asking someone, "Have you stopped beating your wife yet?"

Additionally, there are limits on the first amendment. The best known is yelling "Fire!" in a theater. However, by definition, conspiracy to commit a crime only requires those who conspire to discuss the crime, as long as one party involved in the discussions performs that crime.

[kl836]

Typical Rush logic. Anything goes....as long as it's along their line. Propagating manipulating elections=free speech, Katrina no responce= this is America, help yourself, why should we help you. But when it comes to war for oil and filling Hallliburton et. al. pocket ,suddenly we're supposed to support "Big" government. Illegal wire taping by the so hated government all of a suddenly becomes legitimate and essential to our national security. Spare me.

[bigironal25]

Just to get back at Bubba, she will go down on Rush Limpballs on the steps of the Reagan Presidential library as Nancy video tapes it for prosperity ,as Hillary demands a cream facial from the Rushmiester!

[ajax2]

The large vote for Huckabee, and Romney shows Rush Limbaugh failed miserably.

[JohnKemp]

We couldn't "cross-over" in NC; there were too many important state & local elections.

The real news from our state is that Obama' percentage of the monolithic Black vote was 91%; never heard of such a high number.

[HumeSkeptic]

What was the percentage of Black votes for Clinton against Bush 41, or Gore vs. Bush 43, or Kerry vs. Bush 43?

As I said earlier, you are obsessed with Obama's race.

[DallasNE]

I think the wording in the exit polling was terrible.

"Values" is a code word for abortion. Many Catholics don't share Clinton's stand(values) on abortion but they voted for her any way. What is so hard to understand about that.

Next time they need to hire competent pollsters that know how to properly frame a question. And framing of questions often depends on who is paying for the poll.

Muddled results is the product of muddled minds.

[bigironal25]

Hey isn't any form of birth control a form of abortion? Just asking!But we all know that most Catholics cherry pick their religion!

[SeanOcali]

I spent my morning drive listening to this fat ass. He spent the entire time propping up Hillary. It was disgusting. He starting trying to appeal to women Democrats, saying things like "Remember that young inexperienced boy who got the promotion at work before you, the hard working woman did."

Then he started going off about how the "Democrat Party" (as he calls it) disenfranchised Florida and Michigan.

People haven't figured it out now, wake up. This is not just about prolonging the nomination. This is an unequivocal desire to see Clinton win the nomination. The right-wing is terrified of Obama.

[jdmccl]

I can say i listen to Rush often but it does sound like he has no love lost for Hillary. After the hanging chad? it ok not to count all of Florida. Seems like a double standard because if it was Gore V Another Democrat instead of Bush we don't count Florida. I also think he doesn't try to appeal to any democrat but the feminism satire you quoted is ironic.

[JohnKemp]

Vote manipulation charges from the Dems.

Go figure.

Who will win next November? No one knows.

What we are all 100% confident about is that at midnight on election eve, we will all be sitting around the TV "waiting" for the same Dem "urban" precincts to "report" that we have "waited to report" since the first election we ever watched.

IE-Gary IN yesterday.

By the way, Rush mentioned at noon that Gary has still not reported yesterday's fiction, I mean vote-totals.

Haven't heard this anywhere else.

[KBAR]

http://www.slate.com/id/91350/

Was Nixon Robbed?The legend of the stolen 1960 presidential election.

[JohnKemp]

Papa Joe stole the 1960 election for JFK, and Nixon knew it.

One of the great "Profiles in Courage," Nixon's love for the country caused him to not to contest the "election." (sic)

algore was not paying attention.

[HumeSkeptic]

Vote manipulation is wrong, regardless of what effect it might or might not have in November.

Instead of mindlessly following what Limbaugh says, use your own mind, and your judgement, and decide if compromising the integrity of our elections, the single most important pillar holding up our republic is worth your fun.

[rickmv]

So I guess you are prepared to void elections rigged by democrats that have been decided by registering illegal aliens, dead people, felons and imaginary people? This is just a little of your own medicine. The problem is you don't pay attention unless it is happening to your guy.

[JRandomPoster]

That is where IU is located. It is spring break there, and not all the absentee ballots have yet been counted.

[ankjack]

Yeah . . . a Clinton supporter made accusations of irregularities on CNN last night about Gary - about two minutes before the remaining votes came in and it was called for Clinton. It made him look . . . well . . . like a typical Clinton supporter, unable and unwilling to accept that his girl couldn't close the deal.

Gee. A black contestant tightens the gap in a mostly black town. WAIT! There is also a BLACK MAYOR! IT'S A CONSPIRACY!

Yeah, and the Klan is behind every one of Obama's losses. Get a grip.

[HappyDae]

Last evening Rush said, “I said on the air that if the Obama campaign wanted to end Operation Chaos, all they had to do was acknowledge it and say that the Hillary vote was tainted by voters who have no intention of voting for her in November. Tonight, they followed my advice.”

So? Are Republicans afraid of Obama? Or are they afraid for America if Obama is elected? Or would they prefer, if a Democrat were to be elected, that Hillary's experienced outlook?

Do any of you readers remember the LONG gas lines during the Carter administration? Obama's plan should hasten their return. Take a serious look at his so-called energy plan.

Happy Dae.
http://www.ShoeStringGenealogy.com

[HumeSkeptic]

I like that energy plan and, quite frankly, it is not that different than Hillary's plan. Regarding Carter and the long gas lines, you have a serious problem understanding the facts. It was not Carter's enery plan that caused the lines, his plan came in response to the lines. And had we followed his plans, we wouldn't be in as big a mess as we are now.

Don't just mindlessly follow what Limbaugh tells you. Use your own mind, and pay attention to facts, not propaganda.

[Hydro74]

way to plug your site...

[bigironal25]

Yeah and the gas tax holiday is a really smart thing,huh?If this stupid holiday did come to pass the lines would be even longer than the lines during the Carter years because nitwits like you would stand on line all day just to save 18.4 cents a gallon and not only that you would probably keep your engine running while you waited and entertained yourselves by listening to that numb skull Rush!!Morons like are just to easy to wail on.

[JohnKemp]

Puzzling.

Dems are all ape over giving everybody a $600 "economic stimulus" check but can't it in their hearts to eliminate $30 in gas taxes for the summer.

But then again, whenever it's the givernment versus the poor, libs always vote for the givernment.

[ankjack]

Actually, I remember the long lines vividly - and I remember why. Cars were too big and the Middle East was unstable. Neither Clinton nor McCain seem to have a problem with big cars: Clinton made a point of using several of them for her "Gas-Tax" pander. Clinton threatens Iran with "obliteration" in a scenario where Israel is already so well armed that it isn't necessary, and where Iran is so poorly armed that it isn't possible. We've had saber rattling for about seven years, and it's led to high prices, and will - if we continue down this path - lead to those long lines you reminisce about, due to instability in the Middle East.

On the other hand, if we invest in renewable energy (an Obama argument) make cars smaller and more efficient (see Obama's unpopular speech in Detroit), those long lines you speak of might be avoided. In addition, by having a dialogue with our enemies - one that DOESN'T include the word "obliterate" - we stand a much better chance of finding out what, if any, nuclear proliferation program exists in Iran, while at the same time reducing our fuel costs and increasing supply (a natural result of ending decades-old embargoes).

How is this a bad thing?

[HumeSkeptic]

If there are a significant number of Americans who participate in manipulation of the very foundations of our Republic, and indeed take pleasure in doing so, we have much bigger problems than fighting foreign terrorists.

Once the integrity of our elections is compromised, we are finished.

[KBAR]

'The End Is Near'!!! circa 1789

Aaron Burr Kills Alexander Hamilton in a Duel. circa 1804

Jefferson saw Burr as a clear and present danger, and began a campaign to ruin his reputation, noting that "I never thought him an honest, frank-dealing man, but considered him as a crooked gun, or other perverted machine, whose aim or shot you could never be sure of." Jefferson penned perhaps the most devastating comment of all when he added that "A great man in little things, he is really small in great ones."

[HumeSkeptic]

This is not about one candidate against another. This is about compromising the most important pillar that holds up our republic : the integrity of our elections.

Is that distinction somehow not clear to you?

We are not talking about what one candidate said about another.