Hillary's Chances: Growing Chorus Says It's Not Going To Happen

The chorus from major news outlets saying Hillary Clinton's candidacy is almost impossible is growing louder as the Clintons continue to push on. The AP reports on the nine superdelegates Barack Obama picked up today. Clinton picked up one. This morning, ABC declared that according to their delegate tallies, Obama had won more superdelegate support than Clinton for the first time. This afternoon, AP's tally showed Obama within half a superdelegate of Clinton.

When asked about Clinton this morning on NBC and MSNBC, former Democratic contender John Edwards said, "it's very difficult to make the math work." Edwards has yet to make an endorsement.

Read excerpts from the various articles below:

AP:

Barack Obama all but erased Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-imposing lead among national convention superdelegates on Friday and won fresh labor backing as elements of the Democratic Party began coalescing around the Illinois senator for the fall campaign.

ABC:

ABC News' Karen Travers Reports: For the first time this campaign season, Barack Obama has surpassed Hillary Clinton's support among superdelegates, according to the ABC News delegate estimate.

John Edwards on NBC and MSNBC:

The former presidential candidate told interviewers on NBC and MSNBC that Barack Obama will probably top the Democratic ticket this fall.

Hillary Clinton has said that she can still win the nomination - but "it's very difficult to make the math work," said Edwards.

Comments

[SaulGood]

can someone please help me out?

at 92% precincts reporting in IN, clinton is leading by about 20,000 votes. (that was pre-lake county)

obama won lake county by about 20,000 votes.

so, how does hillary clinton win indiana by about 20,000 votes?

[abby4ever]

She won Indiana by 11, 52 votes, less than one percent--at least according to one diarist at the Kos. I had the link to this diary this morning but the home page has changed now at the Kos, I will try to find it anyway.

[SaulGood]

well, i went to youtube and found a cnn screenshot at 92% precincts reporting and it was 588823 for clinton and 568156 for obama. cnn.com is showing lake county totals as 56770 for clinton and 73693 for obama. yet the state total posted at cnn.com are 644594 for clinton and 630399 for obama.. aren't there over 10,000 missing obama votes?

[NorVaGal]

Under Latest Polls, www.realclearpolitics.com lists the Popular Vote/ Democratic Nomination Totals for each completed primary. Their chart shows that HRC won by +14,487 votes, 50.6% to Obama's 49.4%. Final spread: Less HRC +1.2%.

[tpagy]

Not to rain on the parade but theres alot of 50 + voters who do go to the polls and vote so don't start measuring for the Drapes in the oval office yet and they are pissed at the nastiness of this primary and angry Seniors can be a force to be reckond with sorry but we have had a primary based on idenity politics and when you start with calling people ignorant,racist and to old she must be going through menopause you loose a lot of people and its starts to get tiring and they won't be blaming the Clintons for this.

[borderorder]

I'm plus 50 and I am not pissed, I am elated. Let's hope this sour grape syndrome is short lived.

[buckygreen]

I'm 52 and I'm exhilarated that theres a real chance to actually change this country for the better in our lifetimes. I had my doubts there for a good long while.

[GrandpaMcCain]

Yeah, that's great.
Look, Sparky:

1) People will take you more seriously when you can spell.
2) Do you realize that that drivel was a SINGLE, PAINFULLY BAD RUN-ON SENTENCE?

What are you, 10 years old?

[GrandpaMcCain]

BTW, since when is anything over 50 "senior"?

[VolvoBirkenstock]

Since Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg appeared on the cover of the AARP magazine.

[BWonka]

I joined AARP at 50 - great discounts. Got me some white shoes, a white belt, and pants that come up to my nipples for my trips to FL.

[gmc940]

Fifty is the new Forty.

[BWonka]

As someone 60+ who has outgrown the Clintons, I am looking foraward to all the tomorrows being led by the younger voters!! And I'll be working for, donating to and voting for Obama.

[StillIRise]

DITTO

[CuriousPerson]

Wow, that was one long frikking sentence.

[piquet]

She is going to pull a Lieberman and screw the Democrats out of the white house...Sh­e is completely selfish.
Everybody I know that were staunch Hillary supporters find her seedy and arrogant. Don't beleive her scare tactics of being the only choice for white america.
Honestly what's next? Is she going to strap a bomb on herself and threaten school children?

[VolvoBirkenstock]

Impossible for her to "pull a Lieberman.­"

Most states have sore loser laws. Impossible to run as an independent in the general election when you have been on a party primary ballot the same year.

[trollslayer]

http://www.ballot-access.org/2007/01/12/sore-loser-laws-dont-generally-apply-to-presidential-candidates/

[GrandpaMcCain]

She can yank MY Lieberman all she wants.

[REZBOO]

Seriously, we have to wrap our heads around the idea that President Obama is a real probability.

Not getting too far ahead of myself I truly hope that people don't expect him tp walk on water. He is about to inherit a seriously flawed "situation" in a broken system. I predict that it is going to take him 21/2 to 3 years before any substantia POSITIVEl CHANGE is apparent.

I pray (and this is real) that he is indeed wise enough to keep her miasmic persona away from the ticket.

[unity08]

I respectfully disagree. I think the day he is sworn in as President, the world view of the USA will change in a profound way. The rest of the world will understand that the policies of the Bush years do not reflect the hearts and minds of the American people. The arrogance of the Bush/Cheney non-diplomacy will be replaced by intelligent ideas with creative and thoughtful solutions. Yes it will be a challenge to dig us out of the hole that we are in, but perception is key.

I see that as a positive beginning on "day one".

[SonofLiberty1]

Rezbo,

If it takes him 3 years to get anything done, he is history.
That's why I favor Hillary, with Bill in tow, I don't think it's possible
not to get things done:)

[flabingo]

I feel wonderful because I cancelled my subscription to the NY Times. Their willingness to continue to support Clinton after her remark yesterday is beyond me. Can you imagine having this self possessed witch in the White House? Shame on the super delegates for not stepping up NOW!!

[mystic]

You mean still support the NYT after the way they sold the WMD lies to the country? I cancelled my subscription shortly after I found that out. It has absolutely no credibility, and their support of Likud has much to do with their pro-Hillary stance.

[bb1234]

I thought that liberals preach tolerance, understanding and equality? If so, why do you constantly bring up McCain's age? Isn't that discrimination? Aren't you hypocrites? Have you seen is ninety year old mother? She's still sharp as a tack, they guy has good genes.

Did anyone notice that Obama has no clue about American history. He made this comment the other night: "I trust the American people to understand that it is not weakness, but wisdom to talk not just to our friends, but to our enemies, like Roosevelt did, and Kennedy did, and Truman did." Hey Obama, no they didn't! Get your facts straight! And you want to be President???

I guess he would negotiate with Bin Laden, Chavez, Hezbollah and would have talked to Hitler. Our enemies will wipe the floor with this naive ignoramous.

By the way, in WV and KY, Clinton is going to win by a landslide. It's going to make Obama look pretty bad.

[VolvoBirkenstock]

Explain McCain referring to Czechoslovakia, a country that hasn't existed for 16 years.

FDR was engage in diplomacy with the Japanese Ambassador up until the moment Pearl Harbor was attacked.

Truman met with Stalin at Potsdam.

Kennedy met with Khrushchev at Vienna.

Seems as if Obama is correct, and you are a poorly-educated fool.

[NorVaGal]

Well said, Volvo.

[bb1234]

Nice name calling, you must be a liberal.

Kennedy met with Khrushchev in 1961, that was before the Cuban missile crisis.

Stalin was our ally in 1945, remember World War II?

[GrandpaMcCain]

But Grandpa told us he would be great at protecting us from the Soviet Union!

[SonofLiberty1]

Right on ...keep it up...

Obama is so very smart and cultured too:)

Calling his own grandmother a "Typical White Woman"?

Calling voters in Pennsylvania those who, in bad times,
"Cling to their guns and Religion"?

And he calls himself Christian?

That's real smart talk, isn't it?

Harry Truman never said anything so crass or stupid. Neither did Eisenhower or JFK or RFK either.

Jimmy Carter, the first president I could vote for didn't but Reagan did and Bush the first did and GWB did too.

Now look who is not very smart huh?

Running for President and knocking good, decent, hardworking folks is incredibly stupid but dissing your own grandmother?

Sorry, but there are no words here to describe that:(

[Mike O.]

Please enlightne us Volvo. When did Hirohito, Stalin or Kruschev publicly state that their intention was to eliminate the United States or one of its allies?

You are an arrogant ass.

Stupid too.

[kay]

Why do so many really well respected foreign policy Democrats and others support Obama then, and not Clinton?

It's been true for months, and bothering me for months.

Why don't serious foreign policy people support her, other than those who worked in her husband's administration?

Look at her supporters in the foreign policy arena. They all worked for Bill.

If Obama is naive, are all of his very impressive supporters also naive?

[DeanGilberry]

Of course!

We are a cult that would vote for the other Democratic candidate in the general election if need be. They are the REAL Dems who would rather vote for McCain out of spite.

[WLA]

He's getting worldwide support as well. But I suppose that was just the BBC's "misogynistic bias" that I have been watching.

[uptownbeau]

That's because the Clinton administration foreign policy was a joke. On average, President Clinton pulled a failed and half baked military operation once every two months.

[NorVaGal]

bb, perhaps people keep bringing up McCain's age because it is a fairly polite way to make excuses for his gaffes, "forgetfulness", ignorance of issues and historical facts, and sometimes downright untruthfulness. And, after George Bush and his regime, it is obvious that many Americans don't care a hoot about leaders having a clue about American history. His command of history is vastly superior any day to Bush's and McCain's. By the way, who says Roosevelt, Truman, and Kennedy never talked with our enemies? I don't think your own command of history is without flaw either.

[GrandpaMcCain]

I think that was the most polite smackdown I've ever seen. :-)

[RageAgainstTheNeoCons]

Give Grampy a break, there was no History class when he went to school.

[bb1234]

I see, it's just like how Obama "forgot" the racist and anti-American sermons of his pastor, but he had to be reminded twice until he actually remembered. The first time, the media brought them to light and Obama dismissed them has snippets, then his mentor called him a politician and showed the world his sermon act at the press club. That's when Obama responded, note that is big issue was not the pastor's deplorable comments, rather his attack on Obama, calling him a politician. Of course, the pastor didn't present any new racist comments, just the old act that Obama wouldn't condemn initially. What a man of principle, NOT!

I think Obama condemned his pastor after he didnt' condemn him, very Kerry-esque.

[REZBOO]

Age is a factor because the question is "When is it enough...?­" He is a war heroand a respected Senator. As a working man he is Waaaaay past his prime.... He is presenting senior moments, appears hawkish and doesn't have a clue about macro economics-- and why sheould he, he dumped his first and disabled wife for Ciny, the beer heiress parading around as a rodeo beauty queen.

This is the time in his life when he could/ and perhapsshould be sipping martinis and popping viagra to keep old Cin happy--- and not seeking the HARDEST JOB ON THE PLANET.

[SonnyBono]

"Let us never negotiate in fear but never fear to negotiate" John F. Kennedy

By the way Mr. Clueless - why exactly did you lump in President Chavez of Venezuela in that group? He was democratically elected and has never posed a threat to the United States even though the Bush administration did try to engineer a coup against him - one that failed. True, he does hate Bush but then so do a majority of Americans. And he does know how to deal with the oil companies - he nationalized their holdings in his country - unlike W and Cheney.

"naive ignoramous" - What's that old saying about projecting the faults that we see in ourselves?

[bb1234]

Hitler was democratically elected, so what?

I don't have time or the patience to lecture you on Chavez. I'll bet you think that the Che Guevara was a freedom fighter too.

[TRichards]

What a silly headline -- "Everybody knows it but Hillary." She knows. The scheming little witch is just trying to blackmail her way into the vice-presidency. Should Obama fall for it, his personal capital will fall too. You can't be for change with Hillary as your insistent anchor -- forever leaking her personal agenda to the press when she thinks that leaks will help her cause.

I started out not caring whether Hillary, Obama, Biden or Dodd got the nomination. Now, Hillary has demonstrated a total lack of any sort of ethical compass. The woman is evil incarnate -- scheming, lying, and ambitious beyond decency.

[realtalk]

I HAVE TO STRONGLY CAUTION ALL OBAMA SUPPORTERS WHOSE STATES HAVE NOT YET VOTED, PLEASE GET OUT AND VOTE WHEN YOUR VOTING DATE ARRIVES. THE RACE IS NOT OVER, SO DO NOT BUY INTO WHAT THE MEDIA IS SAYING. THEY ARE GIVING OFF A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY.

IF THE MEDIA ARE ABLE TO GET OBAMA'S VOTERS TO STAY AT HOME, WITH THE FALSE SENSE THAT OBAMA HAS ALREADY WON, HILLARY WILL WALK OFF WITH THE NOMINATION, BECAUSE YOU BETTER BELIEVE THAT HILLARY IS TELLING HER SUPPORTERS TO GO OUT AND VOTE.

OBAMA SUPPORTERS, THIS RACE IS NOT DONE UNTIL ALL THE VOTING IN EVERY STATE IS DONE.
SO OBAMA VOTERS GET OUT AND VOTE, NO MATTER WHAT THE MEDIA SAYS, OBAMA NEEDS ALL YOUR VOTES, THIS RACE IS NOT OVER UNTIL ALL THE STATES HAVE VOTED!!!

[GrandpaMcCain]

Enough already! Christ.

[murphysgirl]

However you construe the math, Hillary still can't win...Obam­a supporters in the remaining primaries of course will vote. Obama just needs a continuous flow of superdelegates to put him past the magic number of 2025..

[SonofLiberty1]

Remember, Superdelegates CAN change their vote at a whim.
And also, there is plenty of time between June 5 and the August Convention for
anything to happen, good or ill, for each candidate.

[realtalk]

I HAVE TO STRONGLY CAUTION ALL OBAMA SUPPORTERS WHOSE STATES HAVE NOT YET VOTED, PLEASE GET OUT AND VOTE WHEN YOUR VOTING DATE ARRIVES. THE RACE IS NOT OVER, SO DO NOT BUY INTO WHAT THE MEDIA IS SAYING. THEY ARE GIVING OFF A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY.

IF THE MEDIA ARE ABLE TO GET OBAMA'S VOTERS TO STAY AT HOME, WITH THE FALSE SENSE THAT OBAMA HAS ALREADY WON, HILLARY WILL WALK OFF WITH THE NOMINATION, BECAUSE YOU BETTER BELIEVE THAT HILLARY IS TELLING HER SUPPORTERS TO GO OUT AND VOTE.

OBAMA SUPPORTERS, THIS RACE IS NOT DONE UNTIL ALL THE VOTING IN EVERY STATE IS DONE.
SO OBAMA VOTERS GET OUT AND VOTE, NO MATTER WHAT THE MEDIA SAYS, OBAMA NEEDS ALL YOUR VOTES, THIS RACE IS NOT OVER UNTIL ALL THE STATES HAVE VOTED!!!

[VolvoBirkenstock]

Speak up, please.

[trollslayer]

I can't hear you...

[mystic]

I agree. Do not let up and give her a free pass. She still is up to something and I do not trust her, fake tears, debt, the lot.

[abby4ever]

You will do better with the people here if you use smaller letters.

[mrmemory]

1. Clinton continues the campaign through primaries, wins big in PR, WV, and KY.
2. Following victories leaves on a high note and endorses Obama in victory speech.
3. Obama campaign, feeling endlessly smug about how hip their candidate is, decides to look over Clinton for VP, chooses someone with "national security" credentials.
4. Clinton goes back to the Senate, puts her nose to the grindstone, and maintains her leadership position in the party.
5. Obama loses important swing states in the election, thanks to lack of support among older women who saw him as an upstart who stole the nomination from their candidate and working class whites who don't identify with a black guy who always wears a pressed shirt and tie and is uncomfortable hanging out with ordinary folks. Both groups choose McCain instead, because he is reliable, tested, and a known quantity.
6. Obama's political career is over, and he goes back to academia, finally becoming a Professor at an elite institution. His supporters--young, naive partiers who had no idea what they were getting into--go back to self-loathing, A&F T-shirt purchases, and microbrews, never again to be concerned with politics, now that their rock star didn't get his way.
7. Clinton reemerges as the best prepared candidate in 2012, builds off her fighter persona, and reunites a party that became fractured through a series of unnecessary losses to weak candidates. Dubbed the "Comeback Kid", she makes history as the first woman President.

[WLA]

Sadly, the world has moved on without you.

[Cunningham]

Excellent reply, WLA.

[VolvoBirkenstock]

Not sad for the world, of course.

[BWonka]

So was Fantasy Island your favorite TV show?

[GrandpaMcCain]

See, everyone? This is what happens with you smoke crack and use a computer at the same time.

[NorVaGal]

Grandpa, You are a hoot!!! Too funny!

[Aleka4]

LOL..

Nice of you to totally diminish anyone but the Clinton supporters. No sour grapes here.

Listen...y­ou sound bitter.

[gayleg]

I'd rather have her just win now, but if that has to be the outcome--So be it.

[HumeSkeptic]

I think this MI and FL thing is just a ploy to keep Hillary on the national stage for as long as possible so she can attack and damage Obama as much as possible. Hillary knows that there is no solution to MI/FL problem which would be acceptable to Obama and his supporters if that means he loses the nomination. And he now has the majority in the Credentials committee (which would eventually decide) on his side.

And now I'll repeat what I said before:

Bill and Hillary are not idiots. They know the math.

There is only one way that Hillary can get the nomination: damage/destroy Obama by any means possible, then convince the party that he is unelectable.

A damaged Obama works for Hillary in another way, even if he gets the nomination. It increases the chances of McCain winning in November. That gives Hillary another chance to run in 2012.

There is no other purpose that Hillary has now to stay in the race except to cause as much damage to Obama as possible before she leaves the national stage. The moment she concedes, she would have no voice and no platform to attack Obama.

This, I think, is what is going on now. And it has been going on at least since Texas primary.

[WLA]

I think you're right, Hume.

[HumeSkeptic]

That's the only way things jive, at least in my little mind.

And now I must go and get an elitist haircut. I have been needing one for at least two weeks.

C'ya.

[kay]

I think it backfired, though. It didn't work. He survived all of it.

In fact, it probably shored up support among weak-kneed Democrats who were afraid he couldn't survive a two month-long attack of the Clintons.

If they come after him this time, they better knock him out. Last time, he just got up stronger.

[abby4ever]

You are not the first one or the only one who has been saying this, Hume. It is not brand new. Anyone who has been observing Hillary closely can see that this is her strategy--and has been for weeks and weeks. Well, I say it's hers, it might be Bill's passed on to her, but it makes no difference in the end. The real question is--and maybe you can answer this for me, for you seem to know a lot about the party---why the party leaders are sitting back and letting one of their own act this way? Has she not done things that go directly against party policy? Is it not against party policy to praise the GOP candidate as being the stronger president, should he win, and bashing a fellow democrat as someone whose only experience is a speech he once gave? That's just to mention one outrageous thing she has done. Where is Dean in all this, other than giving a token statement every other week? How far does she have to go before they throw her out of the party for bringing it into disrepute?

[WLA]

There are many factors to consider. Registration is up due to the "horserace," some SDs can't come out because there are local races going on and they don't want to affect them, also, I think of paramount importance is the fact that Hillary (and many of her more "passionate" supporters will probably go absolutely NUKE-YOU-LAR if they don't let her run this thing out. I mean, look at all of the screaming about "I'll vote for McSame and drive the country to ruin if I don't get my way." I think many of them feel that they have to allow Hillary to come to her senses on her own or run out of money.

[trollslayer]

Dean is supposed to remain neutral and enforce DNC rules. He has probably asked Clinton not to endorse McCain again, or work with Republicans against Obama. The Clintons have a lot of power in the Democratic party. The way party elders are dealing with it, is to help Obama indirectly - behind the scenes. One effect that her endorsement of McCain has had, is to make superdelegates come out for Obama overwhelmingly. This will continue until he has the nomination.

[gayleg]

Obama doesn't need to be "damaged" by Clinton. He a terribly weak candidate all on his own. Clinton didn't invent Wright or his "bitter" comments. Clinton didn't force him to perform so poorly in the last debate. And Clinton certainly isn't responsible for his lack of experience.

I know you'll want to blame her if he takes the nom and loses the GE. But that will be all on him.

[CuriousPerson]

Yet he still cleaned Hillary's clock after all of that. What does that say about Hillary?

[BWonka]

Except he won't lose - but you rethuglicans will.

[Aleka4]

Nothing like peering through a narrow tube, eh?

Myopic?

[GrandpaMcCain]

I love how people are screaming all this crap about "inexperience," when you humped George W. Bush's leg to the White House TWICE, and that jackass had ZERO experience to qualify him for the presidency, not even a stint in Congress (because he was defeated by a rather embarrassingly large landslide when he tried). Your hypocrisy is laughable.

[terragazelle60]

Do you remember the 90's? If you think Wright is baggage... you ain't seen nothing unless Hillary gets raked over the republican coals.
Why say Obama is weak...? if he was so weak why is he winning against the Clintons and their whole 30 year machine? Why is a unknown black man with a funny name and big ears winning against the omnipresent Clintons?

Maybe because he is smarter...­and the people are tired of the old way of power? We are tired of being lied to? But then Bill Clinton today in WV told the crowd that Hillary can still win if THEY vote for her. He is lieing to the people...I did not have sex with that woman!
Yeah Bill...we know.

[CuriousPerson]

In recent history, has a democratic candidate lost the nomination, then returned to win it 4 or even 8 years later?

Clinton lost this in 2004. That was when she should have run, there was a weaker field, Clinton's presidency was recent history, and people were actually wishing for those good ol days again.

She somehow decided that 4 years in the senate wasn't enough to base a campaign on, so she went for 8. Which in itself is interesting because she claims 35 years experience. I'm sure she's feeling that Obama, having just became a senator, should have waited like her before he ran.

She was running on the 'old conventional Washington wisdom' that says you should wait a bit before running for President.

[unity08]

I think you give Hillary too much credit. The voters in Indiana and NC were not fooled. Yes she will probably have good wins in WV an KY. I dont think the turnout will be huge, as most people see that it is over, but in the end it will not matter much. The SD are wise to let her finish the race unless she really ramps up the negativity. If that happens they will have to swoop in and end it quickly.

The she will be able to get back to the Senate and get stated on that Gas Tax Holiday.

[Beachrunner]

Poor, poor Hillary. The Oval Office has always been her goal, even before Bill was gagging Monica in the Oval Office.

Long after Obama has won the nomination, she'll be waging a write-in campaign, desperately trying to stay in the race, knowing that her future is to spend her millions in bitter silence . . . . . . . . .

Sometimes there is justice this side of the grave.

[donkee]

listen

to mccain

when he talks

he sounds like such

a wimp

fragile like he's going to

break into pieces

heh...

[VolvoBirkenstock]

D

O

N

K

E

E

!

heh...

[TMAN]

Good grief! It's the Don...!

[uclafan]

And this West Virginia argument.. McCain lost West Virginia to Huckabee and he's still the nominee! Nothing she is throwing at the wall is sticking. I am all for a first woman president but please NOT HER!

[lornejl]

Let the games begin ! Obama vs Straight Pander Express !

[trollslayer]

LOL

[hope]

Just the symbolism alone is pretty amazing, I think.


It's the micro-mini vs. the hoop skirt.

[trollslayer]

It's an ox driven cart versus a C63 AMG.