Superdelegates put Obama within mathematical reach

WASHINGTON — Barack Obama's wave of superdelegate endorsements puts him within reach of the Democratic presidential nomination by the end of the primary season on June 3 _ even if he loses half of the remaining six contests.

The Illinois senator has picked up 26 superdelegates in the past week. At that pace, he will reach the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination _ 2,025 _ in the next three weeks, when delegates from the remaining primaries are included.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's best chance to slow Obama is to move the goal posts. She will get that chance May 31 when the Democratic National Committee's rules panel considers proposals to seat the delegates that had been stripped from Florida and Michigan. Those two states violated national party rules by holding their primaries in January and lost their delegates.

"Michigan and Florida are key to it," Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director, said Monday.

Obama picked up four superdelegates Monday, including Sen. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii and Rep. Tom Allen of Maine.

Allen, a six-term congressman who is running for the Senate, said the time has come for a "graceful end" to the nomination fight.

"I believe the process of reconciliation, the process of unifying this party, should begin sooner rather than later," Allen said. "It should begin in May and not in June."

Obama has 1,871.5 delegates, including endorsements from party and elected officials known as superdelegates. Clinton has 1,697, according to the latest tally by The Associated Press. That leaves Obama just 153.5 delegates short of the number needed to win the nomination at the party's national convention this August in Denver.

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There are 217 delegates at stake in the six remaining primaries, in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. Even if Clinton wins most of those delegates, Obama could reach the magic number by the time South Dakota and Montana vote on June 3.

Obama has been careful not to declare himself the nominee prematurely, even as his campaign focuses increasingly on Republican Sen. John McCain. Clinton's campaign, meanwhile, has outlined a strategy for winning the nomination that extends beyond the end of the primaries.

The battle might not last that long.

For Clinton to have a shot, she needs several things to fall her way, including the remaining superdelegates. Obama has claimed more than 80 percent of the superdelegates since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. He now leads in states won, pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses and superdelegate endorsements.

He erased her longtime advantage in superdelegates this weekend and now leads 281-271.5. Some 200 undecided superdelegates remain, with an additional 42 still to be selected at state party conventions and meetings throughout the spring. Superdelegates are party leaders who attend the convention as delegates by virtue of their positions, and are not selected in primaries and caucuses.

Clinton desperately needs to have the delegates from Michigan and Florida seated in a way that greatly benefits her.

"It would be helpful," Wolfson acknowledged.

The Democratic National Committee's rules and bylaws committee voted to strip all the delegates from Florida and Michigan because they violated party rules by holding primaries before Feb. 5. The same panel will consider reinstating them.

Under the votes cast in January, Clinton would have won most of the delegates in both states. However, neither candidate campaigned in either state and Obama had his name removed from the ballot in Michigan.

Reinstating all the delegates and superdelegates would increase the number needed to claim the nomination to 2,209, perhaps extending the campaign. But even under the best scenario for Clinton, Obama would still be left with a lead of about 100 delegates, with fewer than 300 superdelegates left to be claimed.

"We need to do well everywhere," Wolfson said. "Our hope is that superdelegates will look at the results in some of these states and recognize that Senator Clinton would be the best nominee against John McCain."

___

Associated Press Writer Clarke Canfield in Portland, Maine, contributed to this report.

Comments

[Sparklez]

Thats why he is not worrying about W. Va

he has almost gained the amount of Superdelegates up for grabs that are in that state alone

He is looking ahead and ignoring her

[gladys46]

Obama was respectful and gracious to go the WV and deliver wonderful words of hope to the vets there. He thanked them for their support and gave Hillary due respect (as usual) ...

Obama is a very brave and wise warrior ... against all odds he's out in front ... and he did it with the highest degree of morals and faith in the American people!

You go Obama ... one love!!

[Sparklez]

yes, i am very glad that he did visit W. Va because he does have some supporters there and they deserve to hear his words also

[williamg]

Good ole West Virginia - a state in which one of the most famous KKK grand cyclopses can grow up and become the states most beloved political figures...­in the Democratic party.

[williamg]

Not only did Obama pick up 2 superdelegates today, but one of Hillary's pledged delegates announced that he will be switching to Obama at the convention.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051202554.html

[Sabreen60]

While I'm glad Johnson said he will vote for Obama at the convention, he is a sleaze ball. I live in Maryland - the guy wants a job. I cannot believe people put him back in office, again - just felt I had to say that.

Go Obama!!!!

[williamg]

Not to mention, I think there is something sleazy about pledged delegates switching sides - even if it does help out my candidate. What is the use of having elections if they aren't binding. I guess the dude is an opportunist.

[k6007]

Pledged-de­legate????­???????? WTF! I support Obama, but that doesn't seem right.

[JackND]

I agree that it doesn't seem right, but since Hillary opened the door to it by actually making it a strategy, I can't get too upset about it if it happens TO her now.

[jewel4Obama]

Obama/Hagel 08!!

[williamg]

I'm with you on that.

[CurrerBell]

I would get behind that too because Hagel is a great candidate, but Hagel is very pro-life, pro-gun, iffy on civil rights, terrible on environmental issues... I would just hope Obama stayed extremely healthy!

[gladys46]

Sounds just fine to me!!

[k6007]

If something happened to Obama.....­...GOP back in the WH........­Good idea?

[raw915]

Pro Life—Pro Gun. Isn't that an Oxymoron?

[CurrerBell]

The republicans ARE oxymorons. They coined the phrase "compassionate conservative", didn't they?

[williamg]

"I respect Hillary supporters because they haven't had the chance to get to know her like I have. She does not have the political skills of her husband. Or Barack. You need somebody who can bring people together. She criticized my health care bill because it wouldn't achieve universal coverage until 1998. Well, today we'd be celebrating the 10th anniversary of having every American with insurance," - congressman Jim Cooper, of Tennessee

[ebanks84]

That's true and that is her major failing. She pulls people apart and that doesn't work in America.

[TroyMastersNYC]

An important part of the equation is missing from this analysis.

[Anie]

1. In addition to the Florida/Michigan meeting on May 31 to try to iron out a compromise,

2. HOWARD DEAN, on April 25. told the Financial Times the following (excerpts)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb39916c-1329-11dd-8d91-0000779fd2ac.html

The Democratic party's "superdelegates" have every right to overturn the popular vote and choose the candidate they believe would be best equipped to defeat John McCain in a general election, according to Howard Dean, chairman of the US Democratic National Committee.

. . .

He said there was nothing in the DNC's rules that would prevent the party's unelected superdelegates, who make up about a fifth of the overall delegate tally and who will ultimately pick the winner, from "doing what they want".

. . .

"I think the race is going to come down

*** to the perception in the last six or eight races of who the best opponent for McCain will be. I do not think in the long run it will come down to the popular vote or anything else.*** "

[ebanks84]

Well, if their perception is anything other than Obama, they are asking for another war. Inside this time from what I'm hearing.

[JackND]

That's already happening. Note the continued acceleration of superdelegates declaring their preference of just that as the season winds down.

[Mogamboguru]

Financial Times is a deeply entrenched, conservative newspaper. What do you expect from them, other than the excerpts above? They print what they are told! The more they spread unrest among the DNC, Obama and theirsupporters, the better it is for them!

[Anie]

Mogamboguru, they would be printing what HOWARD DEAN told them, and it was pretty startling to many on April 26. A sea-change from what Donna Brazile had been saying.
But he's the head of the DNC so it is a real indicator.

One of the actual quotes from Dean (not paraphrasing):

"I think the race is going to come down to the perception in the last six or eight races of who the best opponent for McCain will be. I do not think in the long run it will come down to the popular vote or anything else."

[kevinmcd]

But you again miss reality-the superdelagates are moving daily TOWARDS Obama and away from Clinton. This will continue over he next two weeks until it's over.

[ebanks84]

I think the writing is on the wall for Hillary. It would look much better for her to exit gracefully if she wants another chance at it in four years. She's got a lot of negative baggage to carry for those years and people are not so easy to forget. At least if she exits politely, gracefully, and with pride, that's something that everyone will remember.

She played a tough campaign and has been a tough candidate for Obama, but she couldn't break him. So the story ends unless they have something in the closet they will bring out at the last minute, which I don't doubt at all. These kind of people are good for making "your day" miserable.

[Mogamboguru]

Word is out that that's exactly what might happen in the following two weeks. All she would need, is said, wuld be another good primary-result or two, to leave the battleground not battered, but heads-up - which would be a completely understandable and reasonable approach for a "Homo Politicus", who must always see beyond the actual election, I mean.

Let's see, what Sen. Clinton will do after West Virginia and Kentucky. Will she be able to resist the devil, and quit the race in grace? Or will she give in to him and continue the battle, bulldozing her way to the DNC-congress in Denver? That's the REAL contest taking place in West Virginia and Kentucky

[ebanks84]

Yes, I've heard the rumoring that something is in the can that might hurt Obama again. I just hope this is over. It's so tacky to continue like you are a crazed mad cow.

[Sabreen60]

I'm not buying it. I truly believe if Hillary had something else on Obama, it would be public. She would have used it to stop the SD's from coming out for Obama. Hillary has nothing. Even if she wins all of the remaining primaries, she cannot catch him, unless she wins them all by at least 70%.

She was in WV telling the people that John Kennedy could not have won the presidency if it wasn't for WV. Thereby, inferring that WV will be the determining factor in this General Election and the crowd seemingly bought it hook, line and sinker. Oh yeah, I also heard voters make reference to the "gas tax holiday" as a good thing - that Hillary cares about the people.

[Roose]

And to those Elderly women who are voting for Clinton, Why?

She is no champion of women, she is nothing but an enabler who stayed with a serial philanderer and mental abuser because her rabid ambitions dictated it. After her husband's extra-marital affairs came to light, the women suffered because of the character assassination visited upon them, Bill suffered a little public humiliation, they're still the power couple fundraising and campaigning and where are the women today.....­?

[ebanks84]

You know that old saying that "old people are set in their ways"? That just might be true. They are not people that are easy to change after they have been doing something for umpteen years or more.

[Kalima]

Not all older people, just the ones who have had no ambitions in their youth
or maybe have never possessed a passport to travel outside of America.
I don't disrespect these people but feel they have missed much when
they believe that the place that they were born and raised is enough to
fill out their lives. These people WILL vote for Hillary.

[Thereandback]

Obama has gotten the votes of millions of older voters. No need to stereotype.

In California, Obama received 34% of voters 60 and over (including 35% of white voters of that age).

In New York, he received 36% of 60-plus voters (including 32% of white voters in that age range).

Even in Pennsylvania, there are similar results -- 38% 60-plus overall, and 32% of white voters of that age.

When a consistent one-third of older voters, even in states won by Clinton, opt for Obama, it is faulty to characterize their votes as being simply symbolic of that age group being "set in their ways."

[Davwbaird]

not true says this 65 year old.

[Thereandback]

I've got a ton of problems with Hillary, but I still find your argument a bit outlandish. Unless one accepts as reality the most outrageous propaganda claims against President Clinton, it is an insult to women to suggest that women who choose to have affairs with married men are somehow deserving of victim staus. We are free agents in our own sexuality and if we choose to play along with the philandering, we don't get to call for pity when the affairs come to light. Sorry, Gennifer and Monica aren't victims.

As to Hillary and Bill and their marriage, there is one other important player in that relationship -- Chelsea. Maybe the child was more important to them than was the infidelity. Personally, I don't think that is a bad thing.

[williamg]

"it is an insult to women to suggest that women who choose to have affairs with married men are somehow deserving of victim staus"

Last time I checked, Bill has paid out tons of money in lawsuit settlements over these so-called "affairs".

[Roose]

Oh please. I knew the apologists would be out in full force.

As a female and a former Clinton supporter (who voted for her twice in NY), I have read EVERY single book about her since she announced, and my conclusion is that she is not a feminis. She's an over-ambitious politician who has had a plan to become POTUS since her days in Arkansas when she decided against running for the Governorship because of higher aspirations.

I suspect that if her supporters did their due diligence about their candidate, they'd come back with a different opinion.

It happens every day, a chronically cheating husband, a divorce. Of course, the rest of us peasants don't aspire to become president of the US.

By the Way, Paula Jones was vindicated SHE WAS A VICTIM. So was Juanita Broadrick and Kathleen Willey and countless other women whose names were not made public.

[Sabreen60]

I agree with most of what you say. However, Monica was young. Bill was not. HE should have known better. That is not to say Monica is not responsible for her actions, but let's be real. She was young and he was the President of the United States. Oh, and I would have kicked him to the curb, unless I had POLITICAL ambitions.

[gladys46]

I would agree in part ... however, why make one's self an appendage of a man, why use pillow talk as your very own experience, why use your husband as a racially polarizing manic, why go so over the top to praise the competing party's candidate .... there are just too many why's for Hillary.

Chelsey must know that she, her father and mother lived rent free in that white house on us ... our tax dollars housed the three of them ... Ooooh IT IS OUR BUSINESS!!

[gladys46]

If Hillary did soooo much for "hard-working white americans" why, oh why are they sooo poor!! What did she do for them? Hillary has gotten nothing to speak of done for working people since she's been in that senate .. seems to me Hillary merely got herself placed on certain committees for her own career advancement!

She did take a gazillion earmarks home to NY! The country thanks her!

[FlowerGirl]

It is rather curious to see Hillary's last ditch hopes depending on those white working class Southerners whom she said "screw 'em" about in the 90s.

I don't expect Obama to win them this time, but he wilol in 2012 when even they have seen what a fine president he will be.

[Hajji]

It is essential that those Obama supporters in Kentucky hit the streets this weekend to Get-Out-The-Vote there. Not only will it more quickly put BHO over the top, (Oregon aside) it will set the tone for the massive registration effort to win the general election.

The beauty of the grass-roots organization to win the Democratic nomination for Obama lies in the continuity of community involvement, leading through the general election and lasting thereafter.

People coming together to support BHO are finding a new empowerment in their relationships with like-minded people who are going to turn such organization into the kind of activism that Obama has professed his entire professional life.

We've done the "IMPOSSIBLE", (defeating a self-professed incumbent for the nomination) we CAN do the "UNSPEAKABLE", (electing a person of color to the highest office in the nation even from places like Kentucky or even here in South Carolina!), we must continue to the "UNTHINKAB­LE"...re-t­aking local, regional, state AND federal governments for the PEOPLE they were formed to serve, in the first place.

Do NOT surrender Kentucky! Get OUT the VOTE!

http://action.barackobama.com/page/s/volunteer/

[ebanks84]

Wow, that hoorah is kinda late isn't it? The game is over!

[Hajji]

Not late at all. The game is hardly "over"... the teams are just being chosen. What happens now, with the democratic voters, the indies, the crossover repuglic..­..hell, gotta get out of THAT habit... crossover REPUBLICAN­S... will be essential to what happens in November..­.

I've noticed that November, seems a long way off on the calendar, but gets closer every day.

And I'm serious about the continuity even AFTER the general elections. Obama is asking us to continue to hold him accountabl­e... And I, for one, plan to do just that! I'll be deep in "Hillary Country" this weekend, (Ashland, KY) just to let her supporters know we haven't forsaken them. Where will YOU be?

-Tom from Pickens, SC...

[Raymondf]

Although Hillary will win the popular vote. Obama will steal the election, Unless the DNC does the right thing and count the Florida and Michigan outcome, if not those states will vote against Obama in the general election.

[AMJordan]

Raymondf, you are aware that Obama is ahead in the popular vote. BTW we count delegates not popular votes.

[Roose]

Raymond --- I hope you don't have children, because what you're saying is that they should not follow rules, lie to get their way and steal if it's not given to them.

Once again, Clintons name was the ONLY one on the ballot in Michigan. Florida: all the names were on the ballot and Clinton won, the RULES were not to campaign there because the election wouldn't count. Clinton had the name recognition and therefore won.

I say DNC follow the rules laid out we're not the Soviet Union where the only person on the ballot wins.

[ebanks84]

Is playing "unfair" the only way you wish the delegates to do? That's not only WRONG, it is a LIE because all the candidates chose NOT to run in those states. To do anything else would be just another form of CHEATING. So, you approve of cheating, I assume. That shows your character.

[bygollymissmolly]

The only way Hillary can win the popular vote is if all the popular vote from MI and FL are given to Hillary and zero popular vote is given to Obama. And you think that is right or fair? If so, I feel very sorry for you because you are seriously ethically challenged.

I also don't believe that MI and FL will vote against Obama if the votes in those two states are divvied up equitably. I don't think the voters in those two states would want Hillary to get all the votes considering the fact that neither candidate campaigned in either state (thereby giving the votes to Hillary on name recognition alone) and Obama wasn't even in the game in MI.

Do you teach your children that when you agree with a rule you follow it but when you disagree it's ok to break the rule?

[neocon666]

Only if Hillary is given ALL of the delegates from MI and FL as she's been trying to get. Michigan has already offered a proposal to distribute the delegates based on Hillary's votes (remember all of the candidates agreed not to campaign there, but Hillary added her name anyway) and Obama getting the "uncommitted" votes (note that his name wasn't even on the ballot) resulting in Hillary netting ony 3 more delegates than Obama (she rejected it of course). The MI party reps said that they will bring that point up at the May 31 meeting. As for Florida, if John Edwards were to give his delegates to Obama, Obama would be virtually tied with Hillary there. And there is no scenario (even from Hillary's campaign) where Barack Obama does not reach the delegate count required to secure the nomination before Hillary.

It's over: get over it.

[andyboy]

Hillary has the "I've got a rich husband who cheats on me too" vote wrapped up.

[Kalima]

No wonder so many women are voting for her.

[oscarp]

Kalina and Roose, that is called forgiveness, something that you too , as many other, lack!!!

[oscarp]

andyboy, you have the "disrespectful brainless boy syndrome"

[Roose]

I guess that's it: The Stepfords whose husbands cheat are voting for Clinton.

Even my husband can't understand why would anybody stay with a cheating husband! lol!

[gladys46]

The one thingie a "strong" woman does not believe or rely upon is being the appendage of a man to claim that title. You do not use pillow talk and dube it your own experience!

[vincealy]

"We need to do well everywhere," Wolfson said. "Our hope is that superdelegates will look at the results in some of these states and recognize that Senator Clinton would be the best nominee against John McCain."

Sen Obama has ' played by the rules " now the Clintons want to steal this election just like Bush . Time to depart from from Bush ;Rove ;Clinton politics.

[mhoiles]

Huffington Post!!!! Why are you DELETING PRO CLINTON POSTS?????­??????????­????????

[gladys46]

Irene should say goodnight!

[AMJordan]

Oh, cry your eyes out, teeny-bopper.

[AMJordan]

You know I'm so dismissive of this? Because there are three sites that I know of, hillaryis44, MyDD and taylormarsh where if you write even a very mild pro-Obama post, you get banned from the site.

[blubastian]

They have been more aggressive at silencing Hillary supporters lately, haven't they?

[oscarp]

It's a reflection of what is coming with Obama as the possible nominee...­too bad Repubs will make his dream a nightmare

[bygollymissmolly]

No, I believe that most Hillary supporters have silenced themselves. Perhaps it is that they are seeing Hillary for who she really is. I noticed the drop-off in pro-Hillary posts after she made her race baiting comments about "hard working white Americans".

[poco767]

And yet they don't delete posts accusing them of censorship. I have lost a lot of posts to the ether of the internet, just repost them.

[Mogamboguru]

That's not correct. Pro-Hillar­y-comments have all but vanished in the last few days. This has also been noticed in other threads already.

Maybe, your wording is a little beyond boundaries­...? Try it politely. We welcome your contribution.

[oscarp]

Or perhaps the words reflect the truth, and they are not allowed to express themselves

[bobdob]

This Clinton argument is nonsense. Let's put this into sports terms. The game is nearly over. There's about a minute left to play, Obama is ahead by two touchdowns and he's got the ball. Suddenly, Hillary calls a time out and tells the referees that she thinks the team that carried the ball for the most yards should win the game--not the team that scored the most touchdowns.

I'd say her chances are about that good.

[polish]

I bet your attitude would change if it's your team. He's going to get crushed today in the WV election. He's going to get crushed in the Kentucky election. He hasn't won one big state yet that he needs to win as a democratic nominee.

[kamenwati]

He will win them in the general election. Take some time to look up the difference between a primary (where you're running against a member of your own party) and the general election (where you are running against the opposing party) before parroting that stupid "big state" Clinton propaganda.

[momofsix]

Well they are both republican states and by Hillary's rules those wins won't really count.

[AERO]

Yet Obama is winning by EVERY statistical measurement. We need a nominee who knows how to win and that's Obama. Hillary has misjudged the campaign at every turn. She is losing because she made broad assumptions and failed to have a backup plan. She has relied on old school consultants and lobbyists who are entrenched in a system that people are longing to change. Her negative campaigning has reinforced the high negatives that she entered the race with. She has run a campaign of arrogance that has not resonated with the majority of the voters. These facts are obvious to anyone who casually follows politics. Many voters see a parallel in the way she has run her campaign and the way George W. Bush has run hispresidency. Faulty assumptions, incompetent advisors, untruths, and fatalistic arrogance. We need a President who knows how to win, whether the issues are war, health, or the economy.

Many of us are ready for a change and Obama has convinced us that he can make it happen.

[cballen]

go back to Poland you moron

[kellygrrrl]

or better yet -- with 3 minutes remaining in the game, the losing team says, you know, when we were warming up on the practice field, we made two touchdowns. Those MUST count!!!!!

[AMJordan]

But...but.­.we're playing baseball.