West Virginia Exit Polls: Early Highlights

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B | May 13, 2008 05:21 PM EST | AP

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Highlights from preliminary results of exit polls in the West Virginia Democratic primary on Tuesday. The polls were conducted for The Associated Press and television networks:

___

THE BILL CLINTON FACTOR

Three quarters of Hillary Rodham Clinton voters said Bill Clinton's campaigning was important to their vote. More than half of Barack Obama voters said the former president's campaigning was of little or no importance.

THE REV. WRIGHT FACTOR

Two in 10 voters said Obama shares the views of his fiery former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, "a lot" and three in 10 said Obama shares Wright's views "somewhat." Nearly a quarter said Obama shares Wright's views "not much" and a quarter said the candidate doesn't share his one-time preacher's views at all.

GAS TAX HOLIDAY

Seven in 10 Hillary Clinton voters supported her idea to suspend the federal gas tax for the summer. Obama opposes the plan and a little more than half of his voters called it a bad idea.

ECONOMIC WORRIES

More than six in 10 voters picked the economy from three choices as the most important issue facing the country. About one in five picked the Iraq war.

Clinton voters were more likely than Obama backers to say the economy was hurting their families a lot. Half of Clinton voters said the current recession or economic slowdown has affected them and their families a great deal. About three in 10 Obama voters said the slowdown has affected them a great deal and more than half said it affected them somewhat.

RACE, GENDER AS VOTING FACTORS

One in four Clinton voters and about one in 10 Obama voters said race was an important factor in their vote.

About one in five Clinton voters said gender was an important factor in their vote. Nearly as many Obama voters said that.

CHANGE VS. EXPERIENCE

As in earlier primaries, most Obama voters said the candidate quality that mattered most to their vote was that he can bring about needed change _ a signature of his campaign. A third of Clinton voters cited experience but as many picked change.

UNFAIR CAMPAIGNING

As in other states, West Virginia Democratic primary voters were more likely to accuse Clinton than Obama of unfair campaigning. Even half of Clinton's own voters said she campaigned unfairly, as did three-quarters of Obama backers. Three in 10 Obama voters said their own candidate campaigned unfairly while more than half of them said Clinton hit below the belt.

COMMANDER IN CHIEF

About one in 10 Obama voters acknowledged Clinton as more qualified to be commander in chief. Very few Clinton voters said that of Obama.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE NOMINATION FIGHT ...

If they had to choose, seven in 10 voters said they'd prefer that their candidate wins the Democratic presidential nomination, even if the race continues for months. A quarter said they'd prefer the race ends as soon as possible, even if their candidate loses the nomination.

... AND LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER

Barely a third of Clinton supporters say they'd vote for Obama over John McCain in a November matchup. As many claim they'd vote for Republican John McCain and a quarter said they would not vote for president. If that horse race were Clinton vs. McCain, half of Obama backers say they'd vote for Clinton, about three in 10 say they'd back McCain and the rest would stay home.

DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS

As expected, roughly 95 percent of West Virginia Democratic primary voters were white. Half of voters were from rural areas.

It was one of the oldest electorates among 31 Democratic primaries with exit polls to date, with four in 10 over age 60. The only other states with somewhat similar numbers were Arkansas, Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma _ and Hillary Clinton won all four states.

It also was the electorate with the highest proportion _ just about seven in 10 _ of people who lack a college degree thus far this primary season. The same held true for whites without a college degree _ again, historically a strong Clinton group.

___

Preliminary results from exit polling by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks. Partial samples of 1,016 voters in 30 precincts around in West Virginia; sampling error plus or minus 4 points.

 
 

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Exit polling reportedly showed that 81% of those white people voting for hillary said that race mattered to them! The only antidote Obama has to insure his nomination is millions of new, progressive "educated" voter registrants ... he'll sweep many states demonstrating the educated reasoning of a new and better america.

I guess most believe that Dr. King was just a one liner, "I have A Dream" ... not ... Dr. King, on the very night before his murder he stated in a sermon "Why America May Go to Hell!" I was very young then ... now, I get it! Dr. King said that most americans are unconsciously racists!

However, some say that Dr. King's view of america was always told with a hopeful edge.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:07 AM on 05/14/2008

Will the question ever be asked why hillary can't get the african american vote. why is it that obama is now responsible for 81% of WV exit polling reflecting "race" matters to those voting for hillary???

is he being told that his skin is THE ISSUE?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:37 AM on 05/14/2008

Yep. If you listen to the pundits, the racism that pervades 'blue collar' America is Obama's problem. Go figure, others' racism is HIS problem ... okie dokie.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:46 AM on 05/14/2008

It's astounding!! Bill plows through every american state highly populated, "so-called" hard-working white americans only preaching racist code (and sometimes blatant) and that's somehow obama's mountain!

I actually (stupid) me thought we had grown as a nation just a little bit!

Although as reported WV is mostly "uneducated"!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:54 AM on 05/14/2008

Wait a minute...Hillary's whole argument about how Obama might not carry the swing states in a general election, rests on this: that he didn't carry them in the primaries. But as we know, voters don't always vote the same way in a general election as they do in a primary---and that can be applied to Hillary as well! What makes her so sure that all the people who have voted for her in these primaries, will vote for her again in November? There could be as much risk in selecting her as the nominee as she wants the superdelegates to think there is in selecting Obama as the same. She is trying to snow the superdelegates with an argument that isn't that strong.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:04 AM on 05/14/2008

Well I was going to stay despite the posting problem but it's beginning to drive me potty.
I wish you a good night, a Oyasumi nasai and a Gute Nacht too. Chins up, stay safe.
See you later.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:36 AM on 05/14/2008

I'm betting it's a traffic-related glitch. My favorite site screw-up was several weeks ago, when the first page of the comments repeated itself three or four times. Huff-Po is paying the price for popularity.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:49 AM on 05/14/2008

Look people are going to hate me for this, and I may hate myself for it. I cannot stand this Clinton character. If she is included on the tickect --- da-mnation I cannot bring myself to declare it. Let it suffice that I do not want her to have anything to do with Obama's ticket or campaign I will SERIOUSLY reconsider my decision.

If this is what American politics is at present, and I have been involved in it for twenty four years, I do not want to have anything to do with it anymore. I suppose I must attribute this to watching any of the MSM again. With her on the ticket the election is lost. She has way to much baggage, it will bring out about every rethug ( I cannot blame them at this point.) Look at her negatives for God's sake. I am sick of politics as usual. I can swallow any pride and work for a Fortune 100 again for a couple of months, get a quick 20k and leave this doomed country. I've reached my limit!!!!! This is not what I was taught in school regarding what America is and should be. I will be content to start a small family somewhere where we either live in peace or are annihilated with the rest of the world.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:40 AM on 05/14/2008

Anos, Kalima, abby4ever thank you for taking the time and showing the care to respond. What I didn't put in the response to Anos, I'll just put the rest here in one swell foop ( I have to vent for my sanity at this point.)...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:58 AM on 05/14/2008

The rest is still pending review. Three parts hopefully to follow...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:07 AM on 05/14/2008

(1 of 3)

...Then Bushie came along and wallah -- the new form of the "Red Scare," the war on terror. Knew it was bullshit on teh day of 9/11 not the tragedy but the posturing. I begged people online to understand that this wasn't done by an entire religion or people, just more power hungry a-holes. Of course I was vilified. But I kept talking to the ones that would listen.

Anyhow the one thing that I cared for, or put the most faith in, was the Constitution. Then of course the Bush administration and Congress just started tearing it apart. People were breaking major laws. Infractions I consider possibly worst than murder. Everyone knew about and no one was doing a f'ing thing about it.

I am rambling and I apologize. I see having Obama as being the kind of leadership needed to help us reclaim this country. I watched CNN for 18 months straight (12 hours a day/ every day of the week). Then so called "bitter-gate" came and I had enough. Off went the MSM. Then I switched on to watch the ABC debate, to watch my new hero for justice. We saw how that turned out. He didn't disappoint me at all. again it was the bought and paid for MSM. I turned off again. My optimism shot up again.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:57 AM on 05/14/2008

(2 of 3)

Then came my primary, NC. I just had to tune into MSM to watch the results and watch them eat sh*t. Hey they actually did. My vote had mattered. Up all night watching the wonderful results of what our nation had done and overcome. Turned MSM off again.

Then the hard-working white comment. I just had to see the head cut off the beastie. Kept MSNBC in the background again. Terry Mc-A-hole, Bill and Hillary, Mathews, wolfson, Buchanan, Abrams, etc. The lies just kept coming (Oh I forgot to mention I hate with a passion liars.)

And now Hillary's dumb ass speech tonight -- F'ing pitiful. "I'll keep coming back." she says. Now watching most of the MSM keep shoving this pyrrhic victory in WVa as some sort of major game changer. It's a total of 28 delegates in the seemingly most backward state in the nation. She gets a net ten delegates. And if another piece of sh*t tells me about the popular vote, I am going to go for their throat.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:54 AM on 05/14/2008

(3 of 3)
The argument that allowing everyone else to vote and holding back the SD pledging is turning into a bunch of scared pols tring to protect whatever power they might have left before Nov.

But yes the answer is to turn of the darn tv again. And do what i can to help Obama and our country. But I will not live in this country with a Clinton in the white house or maybe even with her as Majority leader. I don't think it will happen, but then again she is evil, blind ambition, and greed personified so it is still possible.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:50 AM on 05/14/2008

Take a look at this Kos diary, Cocteaus, it might cheer you up and give you renewed perspective, I know it did that for me. Here's the link:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/13/20401/9789/544/515069
Abby

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:32 AM on 05/14/2008

Listen to Kalima. Don't watch the news for a fortnight. I've done that, and my depression is just lifted away and I get a whole new outlook. The news about politics can drag you down, for news outlets have an agenda, just as individuals do; and because of that they are often unfair and they even lie. I know what you mean about Hillary, but Kalima is right: it will be over soon. In my experience, the Clintons have a way of just wearing people out, for they will never let go. But this time they will have to. If I am wrong, you will survive, we all will--and live to vote another day. The MSM is not God, it only thinks it is---and you obviously are a person of independent thought, not gullible, not vulnerable to propaganda. Don't go just yet. OK?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:12 AM on 05/14/2008

Thank you abby and yes, this works for me every time and not just in
politics either. Get away from whatever it is that is bringing you down,
if for some reason you can't do it physically then try to do it mentally.
Try long walks in quiet places, listening to your favourite music or just
taking long baths or saunas. For me it's closing the curtains, lighting a
candle, burning my favourite incense while cuddling of of my 6 cats.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:27 AM on 05/14/2008

Six cats? Cool! We have a bunch, ourselves.

Cats are the finest, most loving companions on earth. Life without cats isn't life, imo.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:58 AM on 05/14/2008

Reply to your post below. No problem abby and good night you.
We have had a few earthquakes last week and it seems we have a
leak from the main water pipe so they are coming to check today and
hopefully fix it tomorrow. I haven't been able to sleep, thinking about
all that wasted water, when there are so many around the world, who
have so little of it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:44 AM on 05/14/2008

Sorry, Kalima, I meant for my reply to come after yours, for him to read yours first---will I ever get the hang of this posting stuff? You can tell I haven't been doing it that long...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:37 AM on 05/14/2008

Let's wait and see what happens by june. Please don't do anything desperate
just yet. We've stood it out this long, we can stick it out until then I'm sure.
Do something nice for yourself and get away from the news, newspapers and
the crazies taking up too much space on the TV. You will feel better after a break.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:58 AM on 05/14/2008

The number one problem with Clinton being on the ticket for me is that it hits Obama at one of his weaknesses, which is also his strength- he hasn't been in washington long.

If Hillary gets anywhere near the white house, her and her husband will run shit because they wield more power than he does- Obama becomes a sheep amongst wolves then.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:45 AM on 05/14/2008

I couldn't agree more. Bill had a huge part to play with how we got here today. I voted for the man twice. It seems as though I wasn't paying much attention at the time. I was going through several levels of personal maturing/ Getting most of the news from CNN, and about the only voices of dissent were coming from Rethugs who were off course lying about everything under the sun.

Then I started doing computer programming contracts for Fortune 100 in '95. I was coming into companies that were down sizing. I was seeing people who worked with commitment for twenty years and being thrown to the side. I was making 8 times most of the employees there on the factory floor, and I felt what I did was much easier. Made me feel like crap.

Anyway over the next decade I saw what outsourcing and profit driven agendas were doing to America. Didscovered this was done with major aid of the Clinton machine. We were nothing but pawns in their selfish little world. And I believed him when I barely ever beleive a politician.

They will do anyting and I do mean anything for themselves. This race bating BS and the rest of Her/their campaign just undersores it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:52 AM on 05/14/2008

I'm not much for conspiracy theories---although I'm not among those who think that if a theory is the conspiracy type, it must be false, either. What I am wondering is if we have been set up, we who support Obama. Suddenly everyone was using the word 'inevitable', not about Hillary but about Obama. It ruined Hillary, as we know. I now wonder if it will ruin Obama. The MSM knew it ruined Hillary, maybe those in the MSM who are biased toward her, hoped it would ruin Obama too.
I doubt this, I just raise it as a possibility. One thing I know: overconfidence is dangerous---and many Obama supporters have been talking as if it is, yes, inevitable that he is the nominee. My Dad used to say that declaring victory too soon was a fast way to defeat.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:07 AM on 05/14/2008

Let's take a deep breath. I don't know anyone that supports Obama that is taking this thing for granite. Look at this situation... Obama is giving the Democratic Party establishment a run for it's money (literally). He's taking on the Clinton's. He's changing the face of politics. He's motivating people. He raising money like no one has ever done before. This is pretty amazing and I think most people including myself looks at this and says today was a good day and move on. This should not be easy, this task is exceptionally hard. The MSM can spin Obama's problems any which way they want but people are making the numbers speak. Overconfidence isn't in the vocabulary of an Obama supporter.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:08 AM on 05/14/2008

I agree that we shouldn't be overly confident, but Clinton was the "inevitable nominee" before the primary even began and before the first election was even held. It was a delusion. Obama, on the other hand, has become the "inevitable nominee" based on the reality that he is leading in all of the metrics that will determine the nomination and on the very realistic unlikelihood of Senator Clinton being able to overtake his lead or to take it away from him through the super delegates.

The only way the "inevitable" concept can hurt Obama is if his supporters are so confident that they don't come out to vote! So, while I agree that we should not be too presumptuous, especially knowing the Clintons, I believe we have every reason and right to anticipate Senator Obama's nomination.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:21 AM on 05/14/2008

You mention " the very realistic unlikelihood of Senator Clinton being able to overtake his lead or to take it away from him through the super delegates."

This is too circular, mainly because Obama's lead, at least as reported by the media, INCLUDES the SD vote. See what I mean?

The press is lying when it insists we know the results already. We don't. They're managing that lie primarily via superdelegate vote counts. Any meaningful predictions have to be based on the "numbers" as they stand PRIOR to the convention. Once we start projecting and mixing those projections into our math, we may as well be using Tarot cards, imo.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:19 AM on 05/14/2008

Yes, but what about the independents and cross overs who haven't yet decided? Lots of voters are psychologically drawn to the underdog, and if Hillary is now portrayed as the underdog and Obama as The Inevitable One...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:26 AM on 05/14/2008

This is a great point. I think that in many races the independent voice has been lost. I wouldn't worry too much about independents viewing HRC as underdog. Most independents already view her as part of the establishment... that's why they're independent.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:12 AM on 05/14/2008

Hm. Actually, the MSM did the reverse--it forecast doom for Hillary, and has been doing so in a big way since the latter part of February. Prior to that, we had yakking TV heads making sarcastic comments about "Queen Hillary" and her alleged nerve and hubris. In the absence of the media repeating that Hillary is toast, she very probably would have done much better--as in, better than Obama. That's what the media didn't want. As it stands, it's nothing less than incredible that she's done so well against Obama (something that pisses off our almighty press). Had Hillary not done as well as she had, Obama would have won the required no. of delegate votes and, with them, the nomination.

The press has worked overtime to confuse voters in regard to whether or not Obama has won, and exactly what "numbers" are needed to win the nomination. Their elementary Arithmetic (sorry, "math") is based on wishful thinking. It also gives Obamites an insult to toss at any HRC supporters who dare to question the rumor mill. (E.g., we don't care for "math.")

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:20 AM on 05/14/2008

British Columbia is beautiful

great sailing out out Victoria

nice educated people.....

I'm just saying........

It's alway good to have an escape plan

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:53 AM on 05/14/2008

Zanti, It's not about the "Math"

It's about the fact that the Clintons' have shown their true colors

during this campaign disappointing many former supporters.

The largest factor is that we have a much better candidate in Obama, otherwise

we would support her over McCain.

The only math that matters right now is how far in debt she is willing to go.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:42 AM on 05/14/2008

And I feel we have to be careful that we're not talking about a media construct. Everything anti-HRC on this board seems straight out of the MSNBC/NPR/Huff-Po handbook. When I listen, for instance, to Russert and Olbermann and Fineman and Matthews going on and on about the corruption of the Clintons and how she has no right to succeed, etc., I have to suspect people are taking all of that in without critically analyzing it.

No one will admit to being influenced by the press, but what can I make of the total congruence between what I read on line and what the TV pundits are repeating?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:09 AM on 05/14/2008

I meant long before February, I meant all last year. Lots of the news I watched in 2007 seemed to assume she wouldn't have any real competition.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:22 AM on 05/14/2008

That was before Obama showed up and the press decided to join his campaign....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:29 AM on 05/14/2008

MSM;s method of grabbing ratings for as long as possible is the simplest explanation. But I seem to be losing my bearings -- what do I know at this point?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:12 AM on 05/14/2008

The press declared Obama the likely winner more than two months ago. Then he became the winner. Now he's back to probable winner.

Either the media is pulling something, or those folks are not entirely sure of how our system works. But it's their job to know....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:13 AM on 05/14/2008

Hi, kcam44.

Yes, but their predictions were sarcastic. It was like "Queen Hillary is going to win--we all know it." It was meant, imo, to turn people against her.

The press' tone was one of "Who does she think she is?" And it worked like a charm, Obama-wise.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:46 AM on 05/14/2008

The press also decided early in Jan, before Obama shocked the country in Feb, that Hillary would win the nomination. He was a nobody, but he proved them wrong.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:43 AM on 05/14/2008