West Virginia Primary: Clinton Expected To Win

West Virgina Democrats go to the polls Tuesday, where Sen. Hillary Clinton is expected to win easily over rival Barack Obama. Clinton has been campaigning hard in West Virginia, despite the fact that most Democrats now believe that Barack Obama will be their party's nominee:

The two candidates campaigned across West Virginia on Monday, with Mrs. Clinton's motorcade driving more than two hours through the winding hills of Appalachia, where she courted a relatively small number of voters in hopes of driving up her expected margin of victory. She is counting on a big victory to impress undecided superdelegates, the party leaders who will most likely decide the nomination.

Mrs. Clinton also wants to show strength in Kentucky and West Virginia -- states Democrats have struggled to carry in presidential elections -- not to mention, advisers say, pointing up what the Clinton campaign sees as the weakness of the Obama coalition. But advisers acknowledged that even if she won those states by wide margins, it was probably too late to change the dynamic of the nominating contest in her favor.

Poll Closing Times: Polls in West Virginia will be open from 6:30am to 7:30pm ET.

Pledged Delegates: 28 pledged delegates are at stake on Tuesday.

Latest Polling: A Suffolk University poll Monday showed Hillary Clinton with a 36-point lead over Barack Obama. Clinton leads Obama 60 to 24.

Comments

[Kalima]

So she is expected to win WV and it still won't make a dent in Obama's delegate count.
Here, take it Hillary, take all the bigots and racist too, The rest of the world will not be
happy to see America spiral backwards ,but if you lose our respect, don't be surprised,
you will have earned it.

[Ohioliberal]

Let's be honest about this. The reason she appeals to the lesser educated folks (and will win in West Virginia and Kentucky) is because it is the lesser educated voters who won't question, fact check or compare and contrast her statements and claims. She spoons feed these folks on what she believes they WANT to hear without worrying about ever being called on it. Obama is more apt to tell you what you NEED to hear and sometimes that's not the most popular thing to do. Clinton supporters supports false and misleading statements as long as they are pleasing to the ears, to me that shows a complete lack of regards as to what is best for this country. But if you think about it, She is a carpetbagger from Arkansas, so why not?

[ethancorso]

Great post! Most voters say that they want honesty from a candidate, but what they really want is someone who tells them what they want to hear. Take the gas tax holiday, for example. Hillary panders to her base by touting the illusory benefits of an intellectually dishonest sham, but Obama is branded 'elitist', and accused of turning his back on the working class.

[TheDoc]

We pretty much know that Clinton is going to win West Virginia and Kentucky. But what will be interesting is how the margins work out. Especially in Kentucky and Oregon, although we know the race is pretty much over now we have to surmise when she'll actually jump ship.

I'm thinking if Kentucky margins (Clinton) are slimmer than expected and Oregon margins (Obama) are higher than expected we won't have to wait till Puerto Rico. Clinton might not want to leave but the supers will force her out.

Some of the most interesting prediction markets out there are regrading when Clinton gets out cause it's really a crapshoot. Right now on Hubdub between June 3 and June 15 are trading at 41% and before June 3rd is trading at 20%.

When will either Clinton or Obama end their campaign for the Democratic nomination?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/When_will_either_Clinton_or_Obama_end_their_campaign_for_the_Democratic_nomination_6473/view

What will be the margin of victory in the West Virginia Democratic Primary (May 13)?
http://www.hubdub.com/m7070/What_will_be_the_margin_of_victory_in_the_West_Virginia_Democratic_Primary_May_13

[misterbone]

Hillary's West Virginia strategy is simple enough....to prove she's the presumptive Veep candidate.

[Lycaos]

Hillary, drop out after your "win" in West Virgina. Go out on a high note.

[Mygirl]

These people in WV are not voting for Hillary. These people are saying they would rather be broke, hungry and White than have a Black become president.

[Brinkman]

I think it ironic that the generality of supposed racism is used to make the generality that all or most West Virginians are racist. Ironic, yes?

I am one of the WV voters that the pundits are lumping together into one big, backward bigoted pile, and it's unfair. Yes, our state is poor, yes it's rural, but the people of this state are not all uneducated and we're not all bigots.

There are six members of my immediate family and all of us - my father, my mother, myself and my three brothers are all college graduates. Two of my brothers have a second degree in addition to their bachelor's degree. My mother has a masters degree in education.

And today I will be voting for Sen Obama. And my dear sweet mother, who just celebrated her 61st birthday the day before Mother's Day (which makes her part of Sen Clinton's strongest demographic of support) will be voting Obama also.

Montani semper libri. - "Mountaineers are always free."

[rzan]

Thank you for your post. It is one of the few sane ones.

[PeterTheChanter]

Good post, Brinkman. I'm going out to canvass for BHO in Huntington WV later this a.m., and I'm hoping we get a decent turn out--one that exceeds expectations. I don't understand all the Appalachia-baiting (?) that's going on here--it's not going to win any support now or in the general when Obama is going to need it. Do folks realize that they're responding to WV's purported racism with an almost equally vile form of stereotyping and profiling?

[lorisc]

Thanks for a good post. I think that part of what people are reacting to is the statement made by Hillary and her campaign that her base is "hard working white Americans" that Obama can't win. Many of us didn't think of WV or Kentucky in racial terms until the Clinton campaign highlighted it. I agree we do need to quit reacting to that. Thanks for t he vote.

[MsDoc]

Thank you for speaking up... I was raised on a dairy farm in upstate New York and I don't think my intelligence was stifled very much by hard work. ( There are those who would disagree ;-) ). It's unfair to broadly paint an entire population with the same brush...it only tends to underscore the narrow-mindedness of the "painter".

I, too, hold multiple degrees...including three Masters' Degrees. It bothers me immensely to hear people cite facts that don't exist, [we call them 'insta-facts' in my family] quote as Gospel biased publications, and generally demean those who disagree. I have found that one learns absolutely nothing from people who think the same as oneself...for that you can talk to yourself in a mirror. Better to listen to those who disaagree and look for knowledge in their words.

Verbally slapping people around solves nothing at all.

[gwhizz]

"I think it ironic that the generality of supposed racism is used to make the generality that all or most West Virginians are racist. Ironic, yes?"

Thank you.

[e2008usa]

Before voting Read more here.... Hillary Clinton Personality:

Hillary Clinton runs a campaign into ridiculous matters out of the issues and won, without honestly but by dividing the democrats in order to cut down the OBAMANIA - New generation - New technology !

Hillary Clinton Skills on Economy: HOW CAN SHE MANAGE THE STATES ECONOMY?

She drove her campaign into bankruptcy with 22 Millions of debt + 11 millions loan of herself and She still want more money of her fellows donators.

Hillary Clinton - Skills on IRAQ and WAR

She won several States with kind of arguments like… She was the first who didn’t want the IRAQ WAR and not Obama! …then now few weeks before the end of the race, She opt for to withdraw the military troupes but not to really end the WAR

When We talk about Global warming – Clinton says: She will use Nuclear Weapon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAO4fH6g0g0

WHY NOT SHARE THE JOY WITH THE PEOPLES OF AMERICA - Welcome to Peoples of W.Virginia,

[e2008usa]

Summary of Hillary’s Experience (35 years): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuZhwV24PmM

1. Sniper fire, you remember how dangerous it was. Oh my God!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPOrnZHunRM

2. Jobs lost with NAFTA, Pennsylvania’s peoples loosed their jobs (10 years) when manufacturing jobs have left states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BrPZYbCdJ4

3. Lobbing for the Columbia, for companies interests instead of peoples interests
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120726769569388303.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

4. The Yes to Iraq War, then the No claiming She was first to disagree the WAR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkS9y5t0tR0

5. The Clintons BAD health care program, it just didn’t work previously and cannot work now in 2008 because they still work with the same Washington businessmen - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRBgA-3emRI

6. The Bad Gas Tax plans, no economists agree with her… It’s only too bad: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080430/pl_nm/usa_politics_gastax_economists_dc

Why Shall W. Virginia Not Be Part of The United States of America, just because they don't like the one Candidate who demonstrated that He can bring peoples together - THEN LOOK AT THE ISSUES NOT THE MAN (if you don't like him) - CARE ABOUT HEALTH CARE - THE BILLION OF $$$ IN THE WAR AND BE A PART OF RESTORING THE IMAGE OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE eyes OF THE WORLD

Read more...

[e2008usa]

Obviously, these peoples are not voying for The United States of America -
They are voting for The Clintons Dynasty or may be to their next Governor!!!

Hillary Clinton thought that She only should worry about the big cities and forget the small towns in order to WIN the United States of America and She won 16 contexts, now She begs a win in W. Virginia

Obama thought, no one should be left behind and brought all kind of peoples in the race and the peoples of United States of America won 32 contexts in the race - Some of W.. Virginia are welcome !

Read more....

[Meliose]

It's true that Hillary's not out of the running yet. But it's hard to argue that Obama's not going to be the Democratic party's nominee. I've read posts by people suggesting writing Hillary's name in during the general election if Obama does get nominated, but that will just hamstring the whole party. (Assuming it's even possible to do write-ins) If something like that happened there's no way she could possibly get elected and it would do a lot of damage to her career in politics. (Remember Ralph Nader?)

On a tangential note, I understand the impulse to jump ship and vote McCain, but he is running on the neocon platform and is in no way the "maverick" he used to be. He's the antithesis of everything Hillary stands for, and voting for him would amount to contradicting almost every line item on her platform. Hillary's running for president because she wants to make her vision for America come to pass, and handing the White House to the neocons would be backstabbing her, even if she's not on the ballot.

Ultimately, both Hillary and Barack have almost identical ideas on where the country should go, so I don't understand why everyone is getting so heated about this. Vote for the one you feel will do the job best, but remember they're both on the same team and they'll both be in Washington working towards the same ends no matter which of them ends up in the White House.

[MsDoc]

You are right on target. I am not a Senator Clinton fan by any means...I pretty much gave up on them both after President Clinton's empeachment and near ( Al Gore's vote ) conviction...but a vote for John McCain will keep us in the dark ages of Republicanism, and a wasted write- in would do the same.

So I would gather my wits, vote for Senator Clinton were she the nominee, and hope for the best. As much as I respect Senator McCain's heroism, he is not the right person to lead this country. He cannot see beyond a military solution to International problems, and frankly, I'm tired of burying our young.

I have been an Obama supporter from the beginning, but I would rather see the issues they agree on enacted than to live in the fear of war without end... and the continued affluence of the few at the immense cost of the many.

[McPander]

I don't pretend to be an expert but it would seem that there has been a leader of the party for the last 16 years. That would be Bill Clinton. He has been behind the scenes controlling the party for the past 8 years.
He is responsible for all the weak leaders. Who was the head of the DNC for the 2004 elections? Gee it was Terry McAuliffe what a coincidence.
Its not very complicated. The weakness in the democratic party over the past 8 years has been due to the Clinton's desire to win the election in 2008 and take them back to the White House.
Did Mr. Clinton campaign as strongly for Al Gore as he has for his wife? no
Did Mr. Clinton campaign as strongly for John Kerry as he has for his wife? no
The plan has always been to have HRC serve 6 years in the senate then run for the white house. Everybody knows that.
Would that have been possible if Al Gore had been elected? no. Chances are he would have served 8 years and the his vice president would have had the shoe in for the nomination.
Would that had happened if John Kerry had won the white house? no.
There is a man behind the curtain in the Democratic Party and its Bill Clinton. Just look at who was on the campaign for John Kerry. All Clinton plants.
So i thank God for Howard Dean.
Think about it.

[CocteausTwin]

I think you may have hit the nail on the head.

[lorisc]

I don't disagree with you, but does that mean we'd be looking at President Lieberman? The thought makes my blood run cold.

[donttasemebro]

Al Gore made the mistake of telling Bill to make himself scarce, thinking that Bill's recent blue dress impeachment issues would be a drag on his campaign.
I think Bill Clinton would have campaigned pretty vigorously for Al if he had been allowed to. After all, he did not want all his policies undone by the nitwit presently in office.
This in the interest of historical accuracy. Go Obama!

[OETKB]

Let me say that it will be an important advance in any case, and I am an Obama supporter, to see any person marginalized politically for no reason other than gender or race to finally step into the highest political position of the land. However to explain every aspect of this race in these terms will surely set us backward. Hillary Clinton worked hard to collect the support of the established Democratic machinery wherever she could find it and W. Virginia was one of those areas where it was particularly strong. This is why she will win today in that state. To kick someone when they are down is to humiliate in a way that interferes with reconciliation when it will be sorely needed. If the politics of Sen Obama is to retain its freshness it must counteract Ms. Clinton's own argument that you always have to be tough and fight off the enemy. Let's give this lady her due on this day for her hard work, and move on to make Barack Obama the next president of the United States.

[TN60]

Yeah, let's be sure and give this lady her due and kick her ass back to the Senate seat where she belongs or give her over to the Republicans of whom she is enamored. Maybe she can work for McCain who she praises or Bush with her vote on Iraq.

Four thousand plus dead is her due. Standing and cheering at the state of the union for the surge is her due. Bombing Iran is her due and the little lady sure did work hard for all of this.

Black out your TV watching tonight and let's not give this farce the MSM wants to keep going another minute of our time.

[prcleburne]

Hillary Clinton is an intelligent, articulate, very wealthy, Yale-educated white woman. Barack Obama is an intelligent, articulate, wealthy, Harvard-educated black man. Their policy positions are very similar. So why are lower income, less well educated white voters supporting Clinton and not Obama? Hint: its not because she's a woman.

[maxrebel]

Because Hillary, Sid Blumenthal and other human slime pushed the white, fright,
closet muslim buttons and they will be remembered forever for it.

Where else can a guy who headed the KKK become a U.S Senator ???

Yes, sirree West Virginia you make America proud (and others with conscience...puke).

[buske]

Senator Byrd may have a strange past, but, both of us, you and me, know, that he has been one of the most important figures in the U.S. Congress in saving the U.S. Constitution from the nazis that are now in the White House.

[Brinkman]

I think it ironic that the generality of supposed racism is used to make the generality that all or most West Virginians are racist. Ironic, yes?

I am one of the WV voters that the pundits are lumping together into one big, backward bigoted pile, and it's unfair. Yes, our state is poor, yes it's rural, but the people of this state are not all uneducated and we're not all bigots.

There are six members of my immediate family and all of us - my father, my mother, myself and my three brothers are all college graduates. Two of my brothers have a second degree in addition to their bachelor's degree. My mother has a masters degree in education.

And today I will be voting for Sen Obama. And my dear sweet mother, who just celebrated her 61st birthday the day before Mother's Day (which makes her part of Sen Clinton's strongest demographic of support) will be voting Obama also.

[gwhizz]

The most racist commets I've read have without exception come from Obama supporters accusing others of "playing the race card".

[buske]

To people who are about to lose their homes, voting for the right candidate is very important. Hillary and Bill are campaigning to save the U.S. and world economies. They realize that real people out there are losing their homes in the silent foreclosure tsunami and they are serious about keeping people in their homes.

[american2008]

Really? Voting for the right candidate is very important because they are struggling economically? The why are these same people almost always voting Republicon in General Elections? Why are these WV and Kentuckians saying that they will vote for McSame in Nov. if Obama is the Democratic candidate? Please, stop the BS and see them for what they are.

[flydoghead]

there is only one reason for her to continue now...

that is to raise money to pay off her bills

Clinton supporters please send her money

Mark Penn needs it

[Beowoof]

I know its moot, but Gore won without West Virginia. The refs just made a bad call.

[CocteausTwin]

Good point. I think the election will come down to Obama vs Diebold.