GOP Southerners Fear Obama Wave

New York Times:

The sharp surge in black turnout that Senator Barack Obama has helped to generate in recent primaries and Congressional races could signal a threat this fall to the longtime Republican dominance of the South, according to politicians and voting experts.

Should Mr. Obama become the Democratic nominee, he would still have to struggle for white swing voters in the South and in border states like West Virginia, where he lost decisively to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in Tuesday's presidential primary. In West Virginia, where more than three-fourths of white voters chose Mrs. Clinton, 20 percent of the white voters said the race of the candidate mattered in their choice.

Read the whole story: New York Times

Comments

[biwee]

Only racist bigots will vote against Obama simply because he is a black man. But, it will happen. Fortunately, there are enough decent and unbiased people in the South who know that Obama represents the only chance to cleanse the Zionist NeoCon pimples from the face of America. I am a 60 year old white Southern male, and, yes, I will vote for Obama.

[EspritDeVoltaire]

Obama will carry the South and Texas. These folks have a strong military tradition and they realize now that Bush sold them out for nothing in Iraq. McCain and his "victory" BS is not going to be believed. They have too many friends and relatives who have served there and know the truth.

Bush violated the primary, basic compact with the military of them not being put in harm's way thoughtlessly and condescendingly. Now McCain is going to pay for the lies and the abuse they and their families suffered in November. The cowardly armchair commando cheerleaders may buy his song and dance, but the actual military and their families know now that it's all a lie.

[ldsrapha]

I believe this too. I am not from the South, but I don't ever buy it when people try to break people up into demographics. I am a 39 year old white woman and I would never have voted for Hillary. I like to think that most people are evolved enough to look past gender and race to identify with the overall character and message of another person.

[riverhouse]

The problem with the Southern GOP is that not just Southerners live in the South these days. And young Southerners aren't necessarily the narrow minded bigots the GOP depends on for their Southern victories. Obama is a far better choice for working class people than McCain, given that McCain nothing more than another GWB term in office and no one in their right mind could say GWB/McCain have done anything but destroy the working class in America.

[kay]

Conservatives aren't afraid that Obama will take southern states in a Presidential election. They are afraid they'll lose Congressional and state races, if he's doubling turnout in AA voters.

They're afraid of that because it just happened, twice. If AA turnout doubles in districts with AA populations, they lose Congressional races. They also lose statehouse seats and judges.

[gladys46]

Yep, drip, drip, mississippi latest lost making it 1,2,3 seats ... these were special elections too!

[cmeans29]

You're 100 percent correct.

[Midnightrain]

Sending prayers for peace. This nomination process has brought out the worst in many Americans.

[HumeSkeptic]

It is good. It is always better to get the truth out. If there is a way to defeat racism, first it must be brought out in the open, in all its ugliness, before it can be confronted.

[Gma11]

Sending prayers for the Obama family and for the Secret Service.

[jmpurser]

Well said.

[bygollymissmolly]

I agree. But in the end I think it will bring out the best in this country. What a way to start a new era for this country.

[MBFLA]

Many people understand that McBush will bankrupt this country with his endless wars mantra. Do not underestimate Obama's campaign and message. The more people get to know him, the more they like him. The more people know McBush, the more they think he is senile. Obama will out debate McBush easily since he is so much brighter but remember that Americans have voted for some not so smart Republicans ("W", Reagan, Nixon) so Obama has to be careful not to come off as too smart which may be a challenge.

[Midnightrain]

"Too smart" = "uppity"

[dct1999]

Haaaaaaaaaaaaah! Exactly.

[dollars2donuts]

Yes, but it's not just a danger for a black candidate, look how they did Kerry and especially Gore, they rejected them because they were supposedly not "the guy I wanna drink a beer with"....America has historically, from the beginning been a profoundly anti-intellectual country, and Billary's campaign encouraged that, especially toward the end of it (see: swilling whisky)...

[gladys46]

Okay as of year 2000 curriculum vitae submitted for consideration of president of united states of america must include mental health diagnosese plus any and all psychotropic drug treatments, must be C or D student finishing bottom half, very bottom of any class of any school .... all vitae including anything remotely related to "smarts" just forget about applying since america has no acquired appetite for SMART!!

[cubs325]

plain and simple - repub do not and can not run on the issues - look around - what issues or policies have they implemented or proposed that are successful

They run on making you afraid and telling you whose to blame!!!

Start with Michelle Obama and put her side to side with McCain's wife - what do you see???

I have not been proud of our american electorate for many many years until now - seeing that a candidate with a real personality has real issues and talks to us like we need to be talked to - is at the forefront of our electoral process - FINALLY!!!

[jmpurser]

Relying on the issues or indeed any argument that has it's foundation in "reality" is a sure way to lose against the GOP. They haven't had reality on their side at least since the 1980's but we keep putting them back in office.

[ntmessage]

Well this is the pink elephant in the room, isnt it?

Perhaps we will know for the last time if the Black vote within the Democratic Party can actually perform in line with its overrepresentation and power with in the party itself. Meaning can they really deliver a general election alone.

To date it has not done so. Ever.

This article is from the NY Times completely in the bag for Obama, perfectly evidenced by the fact that the Wright issue was buried on page 21 and then the Obama speech to defend him was on page one above the fold. There is no better proof of non-objectivity, especially now that the landmark speech is worthless.

Now with a potential Black candidate we may know the answer 100%. If the DNC and the Black voting block cannot deliver this election, it should then let go of some of the power in order to get more mainstream leadership in there, that reflects more of the main issues of all Americans, like Reagan Democrats and Latinos, today considered the enemy by many of the Black and new Nader activists.

The kind that helped the DNC regains slight control of congress in 2006. If the party cannot adjust to new realities as opposed to developing inaccurate rhetoric as a political tool, the Democratic majority rule will be short lived.

Will respond to all non-flame and thoughtful posts that understand this comment as a racial, but not racist debate.

[kay]

Did you read the article?

Obama's voters elected Childers. A white conservative Democrat. Black turnout doubled, in a special election, and Childers was elected. That's what carried the white conservative Democrat.

That's the point of the article.

That Obama's doubling of the AA voter turn out is helping white conservative Democrats.

[rabiabidabi]

That's what I got from the article. Almost a challenge to me, a white, fairly conservative Democrat. The Party of the People has and will always fight within itself, tooth and nail.
We are many factions, with diverse concerns. Our strength is in our ability to take the fight to the next level of diplomacy and compromise. That is why we govern better. The AA vote has taken the challenge to heart, as shown in the results of recent special elections...any and every D needs to get elected. We'll settle our differences later.

Come November, I am voting for every D from President on down to the local Water District Manager.

[ntmessage]

Of course I read the article, and every word, and read it carefully. That comment demonstrates the duplicities of the Obama camp. You cannot have it both ways. Either the Black vote is one of the hard core constituencies of the democrats, or these are Obama voters. What is the net gain overall.

Either way, that is exactly the point of my post. The democrats are ripe for taking down ticket contests because of the sea change in 2006, when they ran more centrists candidates. Now the party is moving left and less inclusive. In political terms this is a real knee jerk reaction and relfects the split in the party.

[dollars2donuts]

"If the DNC and the Black voting block cannot deliver this election, it should then let go of some of the power in order to get more mainstream leadership in there, that reflects more of the main issues of all Americans, like Reagan Democrats and Latinos, today considered the enemy by many of the Black and new Nader activists."

Where do I even start? First of all if you are so tired of blacks and so hostile toward us, why not be a Republican, where most anti-black people go? You would feel so at home. Second of all, what hold on power are you talking about--examples? Blacks only have power *maybe* equal to their numbers in the party. In case you hadn't noticed, AA's are the most loyal Dem voting block, the ONLY demographic that CONSISTENTLY votes >85% Dem, unlike say, oh I don't know-blue collar whites, who consistently vote Repub, and Latinos, who vote 50-60% Dem. Thirdly, please give ONE example of blacks considering reagan dems or Latinos the enemy? What? Didn't think so. Lastly, it will be hard to "deliver" this election if half-ass fake "Democrats" like yourself, and many of the racist and uninformed HIllaryites, vote for McCain as you've threatened. I strongly suggest that if you belong to a club where you look down on the members, find a new club...

www.rnc.org

[ntmessage]

Not hostile in the least. The party needs to understand that it must walk the big tent instead of just talk about it. The debate is not that this constituency is not hard-core as are some others by the way; it is that there is an inability to connect with other groups because the issues must debated be on certain terms and with certain political correctness that simply repulse and exhausts other groups who may just want to be more relevant in the party.

[Midnightrain]

There's no such thing as racial without racism. The two are synonymous: without race, racism doesn't exist.

Now, please go have some breakfast and pray to let go of your toxic animosity.

[ntmessage]

You have it backwards, my friend.

[dct1999]

Your question implies that it is ONLY the black vote that will help Obama in these southern states, when it is actually the black vote combined with other voting blocs that is making the difference and worrying the republicans.

Two questions for you:

Can a democrat take the white house without high black voter turnout?

If GWB earned 18% of the black vote in 2000, why can't Hillary win at least that much?

[ntmessage]

Agree that the Dems cannot win w/o the Black vote. However that constituency alone and other die hard democrats is just not enough for them to win the general. That is the thesis. You need Reagan Democrats and Latinos for the party to win.

That is the thesis, anyhow and if Obama is the nom, we will see unless miraculously (at this point) things change.

[julieeiluj]

finally joining the world unitl we can lead the world in the war against our ravaging the delicate balance our world needs to sustain life, our human life. is the number one issue.

[julieeiluj]

The Republican Party not only needs to be defeated in the fall, it needs to be crushed. This country cannot survive their lying, thieving, and murdering policies that only benefit the riches of their party.
gay marriage is not an issue.
fear is not an issue.
our economy is an issue.
american jobs is an issue.
health care is an issue.
ending this rotten horror called the war in iraq is a paramount issue.
finally joining the world unitl we can lead the world in the war against our ravaging the delicate balance our world needs to sustain life, our human life.

[dct1999]

If the Clinton camp hadn't panicked after the SC primary Hillary probably would have won the nomination. If they had continued to campaign in black communities, and talked about their civil rights records their candidate would have probably received about 20 - 25% of the african american vote.

Instead Bill made his wrongheaded comment about Jesse Jackson and the rest is history. Why didn't Hillary make an attempt to fight for black votes? Lack of funds? Bad campaign management? Bill's anger? Lack of planning?

It seems to me that the Clintons took the black vote for granted, and it is one of the main reasons that Hillary is losing. Hell GWB received 18% of the black vote in 2000, why couldn't Hillary at least match that?

[Veman]

. . . to see the seeds of the civil rights movement (voting rights & esp. Loving v. VA), Affirmative Action (in higher education), the hip-hop/rap movement - spawn this unexpectedly unifying, and triumphant, "strange fruit" ( yes, Billie, you too would be proud, I'm sure).

When "the other" is undeniably me, then, and, only then, will my eyes stop deceiving me. Only then, will I see myself in him, and in doing so, truly understand that we are, in effect, one and the same man.

[e2008usa]

Usually, fear occurs mostly in response to a negative excitement. NOT THIS TIME

Obama is made of Black and White parents. Genetically you cannot dissociate this human and put him on the black ballot and reject him from the white ballot. THIS A THE FEAR WE HAVE TO WIN OVER

IF YOU ARE NOT ABLE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THEN YOU CANNOT UNDERSTAND THE SUBSTANCE OF CIVILIZATION, HUMAN RIGHTS, VALUES AND STATEMENTS

Obama symbolize you and me in the world we share together. Like it or live it but If you know peoples with colors problem " Just tell them that: The sky is blue, trees are green, earth is brown and there are all kind of colors in a flower but if they don’t appreciate all the beauty of the nature around them then they cannot live in harmony with themselves and they do not deserve to belong to this world.

Any HUMAN BEING with common SENCE can understand that, Don’t YOU think so?

[inthecolour]

I think that the writer of this piece is doing some wishful thinking. Obama can probably put some southern states into play (North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia). But "fear the Obama wave" is stretching it.

Personally, I "fear the racist-vote wave" for the general election. I can just imagine the mere thought of having a black president freaking out a bunch of rednecks in the fall and then these people come out in droves to vote against Obama for this very reason. Racial paranoia will drive these freaks to the polls. I hope to goodness I am wrong.

[lizr]

I think the Obama wave is real. The Republicans are definitely on the decline. The status quo politicians are scared. Both the DLC types like Schumer, the TV media types like McLaughlin who is pushing Hillary so hard it's ridiculous,, and the media will be piling on in the days to come.

We will need to stand very strong.

But the Rep brand is down in the 20's now. And the smart indie and Rep voters will go w Obama too...

Believe it. We are due for a massive change in this country.

[rabiabidabi]

As we say in Jersey...fuckin' A-right!

[stoneworks]

We have to find a way to effectively reach out to those people who can't seem to see it any other way. Their problem is not so much hatred as it is the lack of direct contact with people outside their race and the lack of good information sources. That's the problem - how do we solve it?

[deb3mscapecod]

I don't think it is wishful thinking. Georgia, Virginia and NC have become more progressive. Since Iowa AA now know that Sen. Obama has a good chance of winning. Before Iowa Hillary beat him in the polls in SC. I was going vote for Hillary. I liked Obama but I didn't think he had a chance until after Iowa. After SC I changed my view and began to support Obama. Actually, I thnk if Hillary was running it would energize the conservatives. Obama has a growing movement which is now registering voters. The west of the U.S. is ripe for the picking. All of this will depend on outside events. If gas gets any higher, (and I think it will) and if Bush keeps putting his foot in his mouth, the election will turn just as it did after Watergate.............Yeah!

[TurnThePageGA]

The article is about making other races more competitive because of massive turnout by African Americans and youth.

[missjabez]

I think Obama has a chance of beating McCain. Obama is more vibrant and youthful than McCain, and I've noticed that once people get to know Obama, they like him. McCain represents the Old Guard, and he is unwise to support Bush's policies. Most importantly, Obama has come out swinging against McCain. This is good;he's not going to lay down and play dead and allow the Republicans to attack him. However, I am also worried about the rednecks who will vote against Obama because he is black. It is still early and all we can do is hope for the best.

[biglover]

intecolour. I hope you are wrong too. I think he knows he has to do a better job of communicating to thse people to allay their fears. I mean really, what is there to fear of this man. Do these yahoos really think one Black man is going to be able to (if that was his agenda) take over the country. I mean the President has just so much power and the fact that this country is run by rich white powerful people, the real chance of anything remotely happening like that is ridiculous and that is not even realistic. This man is the real deal.

Unfortunately we have too many dumbed down citizens in this country because they get all their information from the boob tube.

Goddamn americans!!!!

[likeicare]

First of all, it's not a wave -- it'll be a tsunami.

Second, they should be scared -- of losing their iron grip on power -- much like the thugs running Myanmar.

And last, hopefully those knuckle-dragging bigots who want to see the US return to the 1950s (or even the 1800s), will follow thru on their threats to leave and go live in another country if Obama's elected. Then, everbody will be happy.

[AMJordan]

How many Democrats ran across the border when Bush got re-selected? Can you imagine Repulsives living in a nation with SOCIALIZED MEDICINE? OMG they would prefer to take poison.

[lizr]

LOL- where will they run?

Not to Europe or Canada. Most civilized developed countries HAVE single payer insurance!

[Mogamboguru]

Who the the heck cares about West Virginia in the GE? Put up a fence around it and make it a Republican reservation. They have to live somewhere, anyway.

Get Texas, New Mexico, Florida and like. That'll do.

[lizr]

LMAO.. we could sweep the South.. IF we can make sure the elections are fair. AND if we can get voter IDs to all the peopel who will now need them.

Anyone have time to take on that project?

if we could sweep the south we could change the landscape for poor blacks all over the country.

This revolution.. the possibilities of the ripple effects are electrifying!

GO OBAMA!

[sparkandy]

In today's climate, all poor people, all low wage working people, are suffering. The very best way to make sure a majority of those people vote for McCain is to remind them that Obama's candidacy is about 'changing the landscape for poor blacks'. That way, they'll feel left out and have nowhere else to turn.