Huffpollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For May 16

Polls have come to dominate the media's horse race coverage of political campaigns. Pundits and reporters constantly use them to tell us who's hot and who's not -- but skip over the fact that plummeting response rates and variables like undecided voters and margins of error and often render these polls useless as anything other than lightweight diversions on par with horoscopes and political betting lines. Our HuffPollstrology chart helps keep you up to date on the latest poll results, along with the latest horoscope predictions, and the latest online political betting lines - and will hopefully help the polling junkies in the media keep polls in the proper perspective.

Democratic nomination
clinton	44% Gallup Poll (National)	SCORPIO October 26, 1947 From a financial point of view, you could experience a bumpy ride. It may be that you've underestimated a bill. It could also be that a community challenge is revised and works against you. On the positive side, you could achieve closure on a matter that you've struggled with for a couple of years. Changes within the family might also need to be addressed, - but could bring pleasu	6.8% chance of winning
obama	50% Gallup Poll (National)	LEO August 4, 1961 The possibility of some houseguests might have you checking out your house to see what needs to be done to make it presentable. A few minor repairs may need to be made, dear Leo, and you could do some shopping in order to dress the place up a little. Books might give you some workable ideas that you can use. Your mind might be working faster than your body can, however. Take care not to push yourself too hard.	91.5% chance of winning
Mccain vs obama in the General election
mccain	45% Gallup Tracking Poll	VIRGO August 29, 1936 Today you might decide to participate in community activities involving children, dear Virgo. Field trips for either pleasure or educational purposes may take place, and you could enjoy it as much as the kids. Letters and phone calls could come from far away, bringing good news, which you'll almost certainly want to pass on to others. In the evening: Curl up with the latest best-selling mystery. Intrigue should be especially appealing right now.	37.1% chance of winning
obama	45% Gallup Tracking Poll	LEO August 4, 1961 Your slow and steady approach may need a sharp kick in the pants today, dear Leo. Don't hold back your opinions. This is a time to get it all out on to the table, despite the tension that this may cause. Strong forces are at work, so don't be surprised if things get a bit more heated than you are used to. The fact is that incredible breakthroughs can be made through the disagreement among different types of people.	57.2% chance of winning
Mccain vs clinton in the General election
mccain	45% Gallup Trackng Poll	VIRGO August 29, 1936 Try to seek freedom and new experiences today, dear Virgo. This is an important time for you to spread your wings and explore. Keep in mind that emotionally, something or someone may be working to hold you back. An opposing force is promoting war while you insist on keeping things peaceful. Perhaps there is an important lesson that you need to learn. Be more assertive in your actions, and don't let people walk all over you.	37.1% chance of winning
clinton	48% Gallup Tracking Poll	SCORPIO October 26, 1947 Recent developments have brought new interests into your life, dear Scorpio, and as a result, you might be seriously considering enrolling in a formal course of study involving these subjects. If you really want to do this, this is definitely the right time to start. Others in your community might want to do the same, so a get-together to discuss this subject and others might help all of you to clear your heads. Books and magazines could also be of help.	7.1% chance of winning

weather report
East		Washington, DC 60 degrees (F), 90% chance of rain. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph.
south		Nashville, TN 69 degrees (F), 20% chance of rain. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
midwest		Chicago, IL 71 degrees (F), 20% chance of rain. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph.
west		Portland, OR 96 degrees (F), 0% chance of rain. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

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Sources:

Democratic Nomination Poll: Gallup Poll

The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from May 12-14, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,234 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is +/-3 percentage points.

General Election Poll: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll

The general election results are based on combined data from May 10-14, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,372 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points.

Horoscopes: horoscopes.co.uk and astrology.msn.com

Weather: Weather.com

Betting Lines: Intrade Prediction Markets

Comments

[kiga]

i believe you Anita!! How much of Oprah's money did Huffy get so far?

[Kantinflas]

RealClearPolitics Latest Polls of the States in Play '08. As of 5/16, vs McCain: Clinton +4, Obama -65.
CO 9. 4/19 Rasmussen. M50 v C36. M43 v O46. C -9. O +9.
FL 27. 5/1 Quinnipiac. M41 v C49. M44 v O43. C +27. O -27.
IA 7. 5/16 Rasmussen. M45 v C42. M42 v O44. C -7. O +7
MI 17. 5/12 Rasmussen. M44 v C44. M45 v O44. M/C 0. O -17
MN 10. 5/12 Rasmussen. M44 v C 44. M38 v O52. M/C 0. O +10
MO 11. 5/8 Rasmussen. M45 v C43. M47 v O41. C -11. O -11
NH 4. 5/3 U of NH. M47 v C44. M49 v O43. C -4. O -4
NM 5. 4/17 Survey USA. M49 v C46. M50 v O44. C -5. O -5
NV 5. 4/24 Rasmussen. M49 v C38. M48 v O43. C -5. O -5
OH 20. 5/1 Quinnipiac. M38 v C48. M43 v O42. C +20. O -20
PA 21. 5/12 Susquehana. M38 v C49. M39 v O46. C +21. O +21.
VA 13. 5/12 Rasmussen. M47 v C41. M47 v O44. C -13. O -13
WI 10. 5/7 Rasmussen. M47 v C43. M47 v O43. C -10. O -10.

Recent Total Electoral Vote Projections:
3/6. SurveyUSA. M262 v C276. M258 v O280.
5/16. Electoral-Vote. M248 v C273. ? = 17. M290 v O237. ? = 11

[CarolynH]

As a white, 56 year old woman, I really like Clinton. I am a Math Professor - University Math Department calculated this.

REAL CLEAR POLITICS BATTLEGROUND POLLS, 5/16/08

Wisconsin (10): BO W + 2, HRC L to McCain + 3 BO
Iowa (7): BO W + 6, HRC L to McCain + 6
Colorado (9): BO W + 3, HRC L to McCain + 14
Michigan (17): BO W + 1, HRC L to McCain + 3
Oregon (7): BO W + 10, HRC L to McCain + 0. 3
Minnesota (10): BO W + 14, HRC Ties McCain
Nevada (5): BO W McCain, HRC L to McCain
Washington (11): Both win, BO + 10, HRC + 1

Ohio (20): HRC W + 5, BO L to McCain +3
Florida (27): HRC W +1, BO L to McCain +9
Washington (11): Both win

BO = 76, HRC = 58
Both take PA, CA, NY, NJ, MA, ME, CT, VT, DE, MD, RI, IL for a total of 186 votes.
**Webb as VP for Either Candidate gives them each VA (13) so BO = 275 while HRC = 257.
If HRC Wins the Tie in Minnesota then she gets + 10 = 267
Obama will win (275) and Clinton will lose (257-267).
The math tells the truth!

[kiga]

dear math professor (no telling as you hide behind a blog),
so sad that with your talents, that is fortune telling, you have not been able to do better. What is you who also calculated that senator Clinton would lose NH by double digit? As you know she won by that much! We all know about polls, and the verdict is that polling is fundamentally flawed because not everyone answers to polls. Very simple!

[CarolynH]

As a white, 56 year old woman, I really like Clinton. I am a Math Professor - University Math Department calculated this.

REAL CLEAR POLITICS BATTLEGROUND POLLS, 5/16/08

Wisconsin (10): BO W + 2, HRC L to McCain + 3 BO + 10 votes
Iowa (7): BO W + 6, HRC L to McCain + 6 + 17
Colorado (9): BO W + 3, HRC L to McCain + 14 + 26
Michigan (17): BO W + 1, HRC L to McCain + 3 + 43
Oregon (7): BO W + 10, HRC L to McCain + 0. 3 + 50
Minnesota (10): BO W + 14, HRC Ties McCain + 60
Nevada (5): BO W McCain, HRC L to McCain + 65
Washington (11): Both win, BO + 10, HRC + 1 + 76 votes

Ohio (20): HRC W + 5, BO L to McCain +3 HRC + 20 votes
Florida (27): HRC W +1, BO L to McCain +9 + 47
Washington (11): Both win, BO + 10, HRC + 1 + 58 votes

**Webb as VP for Either Candidate gives them each VA (13) so BO + 89 votes to HRC + 71.
Both take PA, CA, NY, NJ, MA, ME, CT, VT, DE, MD, RI, IL for a total of 186 votes.

TOTAL OBAMA= 186 + 89 = 275 and CLINTON = 186 + 71 = 257
If Clinton wins Tie in Minnesota then she gets + 10 = 267
Obama will win (275) and Clinton

[Kantinflas]

-- This year, the so-called "battleground" states which could go either way in the general election appear to be: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. A total of 159 electoral votes.
-- RealClearPolitics (Election 2008 Latest Polls) lists head-to-head matchups, McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama, for all the battleground states. Aggregately, the most recent state polls for each pair of match-ups through May 16 indicate Clinton would beat McCain by 4 electoral votes overall. Obama would lose by 65.
-- For about two months, Clinton has consistently done better than Obama against McCain in the battleground states by at least 50 electoral votes. Her current advantage is 61.