Hezbollah Now Most Powerful Force In Lebanon

The Washington Post determines that Hezbollah's recent show of force In Beirut has carried the group to the forefront of power in Lebanon:

Hezbollah today stands unquestioned as the single most powerful force in Lebanon. By routing government-allied militiamen in hours last week, as the army stood by, it proved it can occupy Beirut at will. Its show of strength forced the government into a humiliating retreat from decisions that targeted the group. And the group itself has ensured that the independence of its sprawling military, political and social infrastructure -- deemed a state within a state by its opponents -- will remain untouched for the foreseeable future.

By doing so, Hezbollah, once a shadowy, Iranian-inspired band born in the civil war, has decided a question that has divided Lebanon since Hariri's death: whether it would embrace a culture of accommodation with Israel, as a mercantile Mediterranean entrepot, or one of confrontation that Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons exalt.

Meanwhile, Lebanese factions in Qatar for peace talks today traded accusations while attempting to end Lebanon's political crisis:

Feuding Lebanese factions traded accusations Sunday while meeting a second day in Qatar for talks in the country's 18-month political crisis.

In discussions between the government, which has U.S. support, and Hezbollah-led opposition in Doha, Hezbollah's chief negotiator, Mohammed Raad, accused the government of trying to "blackmail" the opposition by raising the subject of Hezbollah's weapons.

"No one opens the door to a debate about" Hezbollah's arms, Raad told the Iranian-backed group's private Al-Manar Television. He said the group's "weapons and capabilities are beyond any discussion" and were not supposed to be on the table in Doha.

However, a member of the pro-government team said no political deal was possible without "serious progress" on the issue of Hezbollah's weapons.

The Lebanese need "reassurances" the militants would not again "turn on the people" as they did last week, the official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media. He said almost no progress had been made and that the talks were "still at the beginning."

Comments

[awcbuddy8]

Israel needs to invade again and get this over with.

[Rog49Thomas]

Been there, tried that. Failed.

From the Winograd Commission Report on the July 2006 war.

11. Overall, we regard the 2nd Lebanon war as a serious missed opportunity. Israel initiated a long war, which ended without its clear military victory. A semi-military organization of a few thousand men resisted, for a few weeks, the strongest army in the Middle East, which enjoyed full air superiority and size and technology advantages. The barrage of rockets aimed at Israel's civilian population lasted throughout the war, and the IDF did not provide an effective response to it. The fabric of life under fire was seriously disrupted, and many civilians either left their home temporarily or spent their time in shelters

[kraznet]

it it is therefore very strange that, because of their rabid anti Israel (and US) views, the so called progressives on this site have turned into apologists for Islamic fundamentalists (such as hezbollah) who loath and despise every progressive belief that these folks hold dear.

As the Wall Street Journal wrote on May 6th,
"For reasons both telling and mysterious, Israel has become unpopular among that segment of public opinion that calls itself progressive. This is the same progressive segment that believes in women's rights, gay rights, the rights to a fair trial and to appeal, freedom of speech and conscience, judicial checks on parliamentary authority. These are rights that exist in Israel and nowhere else in the Middle East. So why is it that the country that is most sympathetic to progressive values gets the least of progressive sympathies?"

[racom]

And you quote from the WSJ to prove your point? Wow, that is pure desperation.

[Boobaloo]

What the Washington Post has to say about anything is irrelevent especially the Middle East.

[eddietru]

We must call those who label as liars those who call Hezbollah a "terrorist organization" because they have no facts to back up their assertions. That Hezbollah defeated the Israelis is a fact, that the Israelis were an illegal occupying force in southern Lebanon (the area of the Shi'a) is a fact, that Hezbollah is now part of the Lebanese defense forces is a fact, that Hezbollah ever attacked American troops is an out and out lie.

[JonSmiley]

Let's clear up some things:

Hezbollah is not an American problem. Iran is not an American problem. We have to recognize these facts, because I'm not prepared to see one American die for Israel.

[charley0008]

HUH?? What do you mean NOW!
Try the last 10 years!
People need to get out of from under the bubble of American media if you want to be informed.
If you want the history and facts as it relates to the middle east in general and Lebanon in particular check in with Robert Fisk at the Independent (UK) or read some of his books.
We really are out of touch.

[Boobaloo]

Charley0008: You're absolutely right, I think Robert Fisk needs to be read by all Americans.

eddietru: Hezbollah was created in 1982 to defend Lebanon against Israels invasion that killed thousands of innocent people, destroyed the country and resulted in a 20 year military occupation by Israel. Israel seems to think it has the right to do whatever the hell it wants to other peoples nations and people and Hezbollah is a formidable resistance force to Israel crimes and aggression.

GZLives: Yawn.

[ResidentChimp]

There are a lot of anti-Zionists on HuffPo, mostly Obama supporters. Boobaloo, you pretend to have read about Lebanon during this period and then go on to completely misrepresent what happened. In 1972 a civil war broke out in Lebanon that lasted 15 years and caused much destruction and killed over 100,000 Lebonese. During this time the PLO started attacking Israel from within the Lebanese border. The Israelis went in twice and drove the PLO out. They remained in a buffer zonee until 2000 when they made the mistake of withdrawing. In every case where Israel makes concessions they have been rewarded with more attacks. Obama thinks appeasing these terrorists is the way to go. Nothing can be further from the truth.

[eddietru]

Hezbollah is a social, political, educational, medical and military organization based primarily among the Shi'a of Lebanon. In addition, Hezbollah also includes many Sunni and even Christians who ally themselves with Hezbollah because of the good this organization does in Lebanon. Many of the doctors who work in their centers, as well as teachers in their schools are Christian and Druze.

[GZLives]

Robert Fisk ?
Why bother ?
Just make a list of every single bad event that ever happened in the world - no make that the universe ie earthquake, typhoon, war, drought, all poison wells, failed banks, floods, planets colliding, orbits gone astray etc. - you get the idea
AND BLAME ISRAEL, ZIONISTS and all the usual code words for Jews.

[racom]

Please, try to be responsible here.

[mickyx65it]

That is despite the israeli terrorist attack against Hezbollah's leader.

[Boobaloo]

And despite Israels invasion of Lebanon that killed 1200 civilians and destroyed billions in civilian infrastructure, both are war crimes.

[munimula]

...and left thousands of unexploded cluster bombs strew across southern Lebanon, most of which were delivered to the IDF by the USA with the caveat that they not be used in civilians areas... which they were... and still are.

I've seen one of these cluster bombs up close shortly after the summer 2006 war ended in southern Lebanon. They are bright yellow spheres, about the size of a baseball, that float down to earth on little white parachutes... just the kind of thing a curious kid would be drawn to.

I'm sure they were not intending to make these things look like some kind of Easter treat to entice - and kill - children, and maybe the designers of these weapons thought is was enough to prohibit their use in civilian areas, but none the less, it made me sick to my stomach to see them.

[S1m0n]

The problem of the government in Lebanon is that the power-sharing formula, which reserves parliamentary seats and cabinet positions to various demographics in Lebanese society, theoretically on a proportional basis, no longer does so. The population ratios have changed dramatically in Lebanon, and because of the volatility of the question, no census has been conducted in decades.

Hezbollah's powerbase is among the Shi'ah, a group who had formerly been in third place behind Christian Maronites and the Sunnis. As a result, they are were allotted a third-place share of power. No matter how they vote, they can never be anything but a junior partner in any coalition behind the maronites, who are guarranteed the largest number of seats and the presidency; and the Sunnis, whose portion is the prime ministership and the second largest block of seats.

The problem is that today the Shi'ah are in reality now the dominant group in Lebanon in terms of demography, but because of their junior portion of seats, the US-backed government has been able to freeze them out; a 'power-sharing' coalition that isn't sharing any power.

So, the 'democracy' game is fixed: no matter how the Shiah play it, they can't win. Thus, they have turned to Hezbollah. Being the group with a plurality of the population, they feel they deserve more--make that 'some'--of the power in governing. When 'democracy' denies them this (as it has) they find alternate means. That's Hezbollah.

[Boobaloo]

S1mon: Great post.

Only point is this: Shia, population wise are still a small minority of Lebanese society, 10-15% of the population. 80% of Lebanese are Christian and Sunni. The power sharing is based on actual population not popularity which is why Hezbollah will never have a majority rule however, they have strong alliances with about 15% of the Christians and a lesser portion of the Sunnis as Sunnis are not fans of the Shia.

I think Hezbollahs power grab is more about Israel then anything else.

[Rog49Thomas]

Three comments on your post.

(1) Not sure where you got your numbers.

The Shi'ah are 40% of Lebanon by numbers, maybe more than 50%.
The Christians are maybe 20% and the Sunnis maybe 20% with the Druze about 6%,
There hasn't been a "honest" census since the Christians realized they were a minority.

(2) As to the allocation of political power in Lebanon, the Christians have 50% of the seats in Parliament, the remaining groups share the remaining 50%.
The President of Lebanon must be a Christian (Maronites preferred).
The PM a Sunni.
The Speaker of the Parliament a Shi'ah.
The Minister of Defense a Druze.
Not exactly one man one vote.

(3) If Hizb wanted to overthrow the Siniora Regime and take power, it could quite easily have done so as evidenced by its quick and decisive defeat of its opponents. Hizb did not.
It was reacting to the Govt's decision (prompted by its Saudi and US masters) to dismantle Hizb's secure communications network.

While Hizb is a resistance organization, it also has domestic goals - a fair share of political power for the Shi'ah. And for the government to work for all Lebanese - not just the Sunnis and Christians. It has been staging a peaceful protest in Beirut for over one year on the latter.

[Peabodies]

Well this is more useful for an understanding of the situation in Lebanon than anything I have read on the situation to date. Thank you, S1mon.

[Rog49Thomas]

The WaPo's analysis is about 8 years late: Hizb has been the major force in Lebanon since 2000.

Is there a Pulitzer for stating the obvious?

One of the major preconditions for conducting a successful foreign policy is a firm grip on reality. Understanding facts for what they are and putting aside one's cherished and childish delusions.

Until we do so, whether it's President Pan or President Neo, we are doomed to failure in the ME.

[dbdzen]

i wonder which leader is responsible for idiotic foreign policy that so strengthened Hezbollah's and Iran's hand so much.

[Rog49Thomas]

Pan had little to do with Hizb's strength.

The Shi'ah are at least 40% of Lebanon if not an outright majority.

Hizb is one of the most effectively organized national liberation movements - certainly in terms of the Arab world.

So to quote the old commercial "They earned it".

As to Iran, Pan's bone-headed invasion of Iraq was a gift to the Ayatollahs.
Resulting in a strategic advantage they will enjoy for years. Simply put, with Iraq "broken", there is no effective counterweight to Iran.

The countries of the Gulf are a military joke - best summarized in the pre Gulf War 1 joke. Saddam and his generals are meeting to plot the invasion of Saudi Arabia. Tariq Aziz says, "Mr. President, what about the southern flank, the Gulf countries." Saddam replies, "Good point, Tariq. Will you send them faxes, please?" (Meaning all that was needed for their armies to crumble was receipt of a fax).

[GZLives]

Hizb is one of the most effectively organized national liberation movements

What are they liberating these days?

These are thug killers like the other two Iranian proxy gangs in the region - Hamas and Sadr's group of thugs and all they're after is whatever Tehran tells them.

[Bluedog12]

Iran fearing US attack positions its strawman on Israel's border. GWB didn't mention this situation during his Knesset speech.

[Rog49Thomas]

I believe if you ask the IDF they will tell you that Hizb is not a "strawman".

[Kirby]

An implicit warning to Israel and the United States, should either the U. S. and/or Israel bomb Iran's nuclear reactor site? You bet it is, and it ought to give pause to both countries in their combative stance. The reactor might be destroyed, alright, but at what greater cost, not only to the Israeli People, but to our very own sons and daughters in Iraq.

Enough saber rattling, lest we cut off our nose to spite our face. The Prince of Peace will eventually help us in an equilibrium for all of His Children, be they Jews, Muslims, Christians, in the Middle East,; in the meantime is there no call for the use of reason based on common sense and the need of all humanity?

The U.S. needs to face the real "reality." Our might might not gain us the right to dictate to others what is going to be. The Prince of Peace for the Middle East is not a Neville Chamberlain.