Polls: Obama Improving In Key General Election States

UPDATE: (5/27): SurveyUSA's continuing polling of swing states has produced this Iowa poll, where Obama holds a 9-point lead over McCain.

UPDATE (5/23): Survey USA has an Ohio poll suggesting a sizable 9-point lead for Barack Obama in a matchup against McCain.

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Original Post: A series of recent polls suggest Barack Obama has begun to open big leads in some states that will be crucial to the a Democratic win in November. But in at least two swing states, Clinton continues to outperform John McCain while Obama lags behind.

California: Obama Opens Big Lead Over McCain, Clinton's Unfavorability Rises

According to a survey conducted over the past 10 days by the Public Policy Institute of California, 59 percent of likely voters here now have a "favorable" impression of Democrat Obama, while a majority view both of the other candidates unfavorably. In a state whose Democratic primary Clinton won in February, 51 percent of voters now say they have an unfavorable opinion of her; 53 percent of voters feel the same way about Republican McCain.

Obama, meanwhile, seems to be making strides across nearly every constituency. If the general election were held today, 54 percent of Californians say they would vote for him, compared with 37 percent for McCain. That gap has widened by 8 points since March. Obama enjoys the support of more than 80 percent of Democrats here, along with over half (55 percent) of independents. He leads McCain among men and women and is viewed favorably by nearly 70 percent of Latinos--a powerful political group, experts note, not just in California but in several other western states, including Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

Virginia: Obama Beats McCain By 7

In October of 2006, John McCain led Barack Obama among Virginia's registered voters by 20 points. Today, 19 months later, the same question, using the same methodology, as you can see in the table below, shows Barack Obama defeating John McCain by 7 points.

Florida: Clinton Beats McCain, McCain Beats Obama

Clinton: 48%

McCain: 41%

Story continues below

Obama: 41%
McCain: 45%

Ohio: Clinton Beats McCain, McCain Beats Obama

Clinton: 48%

McCain: 41%

Obama: 40%
McCain: 44%

Pennsylvania: Clinton, Obama Beat McCain

Clinton: 50%

McCain: 37%

Obama: 46%
McCain: 40%

Comments

[republiscum]

MCsame is delusional just like Bush. Republicans are ANTI MIDDLE CLASS AMERICANS...check this link out>
http://therealmccain.com/?utm_source=rgemail

[mhopgood123]

I am going away on Thursday and when I come back I hope to see that Obama has won the nomination. I will then volunteer to campaign for him in the general election and being bilingual I will work for every Latino vote out there. We will win in November with the help of the hispanic vote. We will kick Bush and Cheney out of the WHite House and all their right wing conservative friends who have taken this country from the people and paralyzed us with fear.
My son Julian who is diabetic may finally get that stemcell transplant he wants. He may be able to continue his DNA research at University of Chicago without worrying too much about his student loans. His girlfriend may be able to get that much wanted biomedical job so they can get married.My other son, Ryan may be able to pay for his student loans without fear of rates getting out of control. I may be able to get a decent job that will allow me to do meaningful volunteer work without risking a secure retirement. So many possibilites.........what a wonderful future for America with Obama in the White House

[humuhumunukunukuapuaa]

Don't forget that both McCain and Hillary lead Obama in the "hard working, evangelical, white, gun-owning, redneck, lower-middle class, high-school educated, multi-pet owning, blue-collar, ranch-home dwelling, FOX News-watching demographic", which comes to about three dozen voters.

[going2ireland]

Heh heh!!

[abby4ever]

This is one of the funniest posts I've read in about a week. And God knows we need the humor, given some of the anti-Obama posts here.

[beboy]

McCain being behind in Iowa isn't much for him to worry about. He skipped the Iowa caucus because his stand against ethanol subsidies is so unpopular there. A much bigger problem for McCain is that he is only 3% ahead of Sen. Obama in todays Gallup Poll. His lead should be much larger against a candidate who is basically unelectable.

[UnbiasView]

At some point someone needs to act like a man and tell the farmers banking off of ethanol and government subsides that corn ethanol isn't going to work.

[going2ireland]

And just why won't it work? YOu have a lot invested with the oil companies?

[AMJordan]

You are right, sir! Sugar beet ethanol is going to be the wave of the future.

[lazywhiteamerican]

Actually algae is the answer. It is about 30 times more efficient to grow and process than the nearest competition which I guess is rapeseed. Its volume doubles every 24 hours, the photo bio reactors to grow it are closed systems do not need to be place on good farmland and can be used anywhere there is sunshine. An acre and a half can produce 1 to 2 tons of biodiesel a day. America needs to start raising this stuff and stop pumping our wealth into buying sky scrapers for sheiks in Dubai.

[EvoMan]

If he's unelectable, how come he keeps winning elections?

[beboy]

Yeah, against Alan Keyes and Hillary.

[mhopgood123]

Unelectable to you......not to millions who have voted for him

[ldsrapha]

LOL! Whatever! Obviously he is electable enough to have a 187 delegate lead on Hillary and he didn't even have to CHEAT to get it.

[beboy]

What on earth makes you think Hillary is electable?

[abby4ever]

Well the thing is, if he's only 3% ahead, that suggests that Obama ISN'T unelectable.

[CommentSense]

There's a simple reason Obama is improving in these key states; the reason this will be an historic year that will reformat the red and blue states- at this moment in each of those states (and the other key states) people are meeting with each other, donations are being made, the groundwork is being laid. It's not reported each day in the media but it is quietly happening way underneath the radar. The organizational pyramid is slowly rising.

[UnbiasView]

If he wants to "reformat the red and blue states" he needs to get some white people to vote for him. Since the whole Rev Wright thing he has only won the white vote in OR & VT.

[dawn2dusk]

Only? are they more or less white?

vote the issues not the spin

[incontempt]

oh please...he has won many states...you just cry because we can see through the RUSE...no one cares about crazy preachers(technically all crazy) and i'm pretty sure No states have changed their priorities over that mudslinging, you can't get much whiter then maine and we pulled for obama!

[going2ireland]

White here and an ardent Obama supporter. Come on, white Obama supporters. Join the train and show UnbiasView just how many whites are "not" voting for Obama!!

[AMJordan]

OR and VT are like the most non-white areas you've ever seen, correct?

[mhopgood123]

Not true. He has won the white vote in many states.The Wright controversy hasn't really hurt him

[ATFIllinois]

The next revolution in America will not be televised!

[CommentSense]

Oh yeah... Gil Scott-Heron WAS a visionary.

[AMJordan]

Nope, it's going to be on the YouTube, Ipod and laptop.

[Outofnowhere]

I wonder if another reason is that those Limbaugh DooDoo Heads have to fess up now that we're talking about the general. I have a strong feeling Obama actually won some states like Texas and Indiana if only the true Democrats are counted. Apparently some of the match up polling between him and Clinton counted those mischief makers too.
I think the independents will determine the outcome of the election in November, with some conservatives abadoning McCain and some Dems (though not as many as being reported) refusing to back Obama. The number of each is what's sketchy now.
I do think Obama will win in the end, through organization, funds and the fact that he's much more the change candidate.

[SpaceCadet]

These polls are certainly encouraging, but keep in mind that the GOP has not yet opened its sewers to unleash the full fury of their well-funded Swift Boat Liars. Obama is going to have a hard time not keeping from being drowned in the sea of lies.

[UnbiasView]

Please remember that polls are a snapshot in time, in May of 2004, John Kerry had a double digit lead against Bush . . . how did that turn out?

[ATFIllinois]

Not with so many millions researching those lies.

[going2ireland]

He has put up with the Clinton Machinery and done himself proud by not wallowing in the same muck.

I am sure there will be a sheetload of lies thrown at him. But he will conduct himself as he has all along. With honesty and integrity. McCain and his flunkies will be made to look like idiots if they try any of Hillary's tricks. And if the people of the United States have learned nothing else this election season, they have learned to see through the smoke and mirrors to see the truth.

You know - truth - that thing that Hillary knows nothing about. That McCain struggles to bring back into his fold.

Yes, it is going to be a struggle, but Obama is up to the challenge.

[ldsrapha]

Agreed, but didn't McCain promise to run a clean campaign. Gosh, I know he would never flip flop.

[olivia]

The manhole into the sewer of McCain has not been opened yet, either. Just a crack and a whiff, so far.

[paganmist]

After Bush/Gore, we discovered that it's possible to have the popular vote, but lose according to election metrics. But this system of delegates and caucuses made Hillary's husband the nominee - twice - and she did not complain. She has made no effort to protest or change these processes since then.

She knew that MI/FL would not count. Spoken October 11, 2007:

"You know, it's clear this election they're having is not going to count for anything." Audio here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULxxBz-PAjg

At first, the ruleswere undeniably in her favor, and by that mutually approved metric, she was winning. It is completely fair that by this same metric, any one of her competitors could gain the lead.

The media/pundits/supporters have all been biased and vicious all around. But each candidate knew the risks going in, and knew that pressure or unfair news coverage has no effect on the rules: MI/FL stripped 100%. Delegates determine nominee. The rest is up to good campaign management, good luck, and the American voters - none of which changes the set rules.

To change the rules at this stage of the competition is dishonest. To embrace these rules while Hillary was winning, then call them unfair once she began losing, is to declare that she *deserves* to win, whether it is fair or not.

And that very idea counters every notion of fairness and equality that is supposed to define this party and this country.

[rr52]

Obama improving against McCain? Maybe that's why so many superdelegates haven't cast votes yet. The idea is to elect the candidate that is in the best position to win against the Republican opponent. Look at the stats. Hillary is that best candidate, like it or not! And she has the popular vote by the thousands. Obama is already gaffing way too much. They will pin flip flop to him easily because I've watched him do it. He tends to stretch the truth and has already been caught, first on single payer health insurance, to his claim to Iowa about passing nuclear legislation that never went anywhere in reality, to the latest WWII memories of his grandfather, ur um uncle, or make that great uncle. The Repugs will eat him alive on his foreign policy alone. When Trent Lott was resurrected everyone should have been on alert that something was up. Lott and 30-40 obstructionists in the senate have managed to keep a Democratic majority at bay. Obama is a walk in the park for them.

[Wingit]

What will Hillary be saying when she has to answer questions about Whitewater, Monica Lewinsky, the WH travel office firings, Her inability to pass a health care program even though she was the leader of the process? Those are just a few of the man items in the HRC baggage that the Repubs are ready and eager to bring up. Just because Obama didn't stoop to bring them out in his campaign, does not mean the Repugs will play nice also.

[pilgrim7]

Not to mention her delayed-until-after-the-election Peter Paul $17 million fraud trial, the "media coverup" of the century, that's all over YouTube:

Clintons to face fraud trial
Judge setting date, testimony to include ex-president, senator

� 2008 WorldNetDaily

While Hillary Clinton battles Barack Obama on the campaign trail, a judge in Los Angeles is quietly preparing to set a trial date in a $17 million fraud suit that aims to expose an alleged culture of widespread corruption by the Clintons and the Democratic Party.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=56868

[going2ireland]

And don't think that the GOP hasn't seen and isn't aware of the Clinton Machinery shown in the movie "The Clinton Chronicles". How is Hillary gonna lie her way out of all of that mess? Huh?

[pilgrim7]

SAN FRANCISCO—A new poll released today in California finds political momentum shifting dramatically toward Barack Obama—and away from both Hillary Clinton and John McCain—in the nation's most populous state. According to a survey conducted over the past 10 days by the Public Policy Institute of California (nonpartisan group which surveyed more than 2,000 voters), 59 percent of likely voters here now have a "favorable" impression of Democrat Obama, while a majority view both of the other candidates unfavorably.

Obama… seems to be making strides across nearly every constituency…Obama enjoys the support of more than 80 percent of Democrats here, along with over half (55 percent) of independents. He leads McCain among men and women and is viewed favorably by nearly 70 percent of Latinos—a powerful political group, experts note, not just in California but in several other western states...

... Obama campaign…has faced questions—many of them from Clinton herself—about its candidate's general election chances after dramatic defeats in WVA/KY…In California, at least, Latinos and low-income whites—two groups who strongly supported Clinton in the state's primary—have rallied behind (Obama) in the months since February.

… the survey may offer a much-needed boost to the Obama campaign, which has faced questions—many of them from Clinton herself—about its candidate's general election chances after dramatic defeats in WVA/KY... For Democrats who supported Clinton…and looking at the general election…they are coming together."

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/05/22/new-poll-finds-big-shift-toward-obama.html

[CocteausTwin]

The sad thing is that it might be possible that you believe what you've posted. If you take it in small doses, you will build a tolerance for reality. Try this first dose -- Hillary has lost the nomination. Get over it.

[pilgrim7]

Within the past five years, three nuclear power plants have reported missing spent fuel. Senator Obama introduced the Spent Nuclear Fuel Tracking and Accountability Act in 2005, which would establish specific and uniform guidelines for tracking, controlling, and accounting for individual spent fuel rods or segments at nuclear power plants, including procedures for conducting physical inventories. These provisions were included in the Nuclear Security Act of 2005, which passed the Senate Environment and Public Works (EPW) Committee in June of 2005.

Obama and Senator Lugar (R-IN) introduced legislation that was signed into law in January 2007 to help other nations detect and stop the transfer of weapons of mass destruction. The legislation also established the next generation of cooperative threat reduction efforts to destroy conventional weapons that could fall into the wrong hands. Senator Obama worked with Senator Lugar to ensure that funding was appropriated for the Lugar-Obama nonproliferation initiative.

Senator Obama also joined with Senator Hagel (R-NE) to introduce a broad bill that seeks to prevent nuclear terrorism, reduce global nuclear arsenals, and stop the spread of nuclear weapons and related technology. One provision, which was signed into law as part of the FY08 omnibus appropriations bill, requires the President to submit to Congress a comprehensive plan for ensuring that all nuclear weapons and weapons-usable material at vulnerable sites around the world are secure by 2012 to keep them out of the hands of terrorists.


http://obama.senate.gov/issues/

[ATFIllinois]

". Obama is a walk in the park for them"

They, just like you and everyone else have grossly underestimated Obama and his coalition of supporters. You're gonna see a walk in the park alright.

[NicoleAnonymous]

Is Huffington Post having another "we must delete ANYTHING that is controversial because our reputation will be destroyed" day or am I imagining posts are disappearing because I'm crazy and can't remember which discussion I was in and went to the wrong place?

[NicoleAnonymous]

It was my fault - sometimes I can't remember which discussion I'm in...

[pilgrim7]

LOL. We're all losing it.

[ElPerro]

....and along comes Bob Barr to seal the deal!

[Ariesjill]

Slow and steady (& brilliant, principled, original, grounded, elegant, emotionally healthy) but mainly Real Deal....wins the race. This time table is part of the Natural World and EVOLUTION. Which, OK, is just a theory embraced by not God-fearing people who are going straight to hell.

The big white colonial on PA Ave NEEDS a lttle flame detailing!

[EvoMan]

All of this arguing over polls is downright silly at this point. Think back to the polls of late last year. Did any of them predict where we are now?

It's time to get behind the nominee so that we do win in November. And that nominee is Senator Obama.

[DesertLight]

That's it ladies and gentlemen we are calling Florida for John Kerry. It doesn't matter how the rest of you vote. It is over, President elect John F. Kerry ( aka. Lurch).

Keep the spin going boys.

[Ariesjill]

We are not doing spin. You are.....tho your wheels came of the vehicle long ago.

[DesertLight]

If you read some of my other posts, I can't stand McCain.

[DrDemon]

Gee.. Brings back memories of 2000.

Afterall, that's exactly how it happened; except it was President reject George W. Bush, not Kerry!

[Kantinflas]

Victory = 270 electoral votes. Who's winning now? Start with the Bush-Kerry 2004 Rep-Dem electoral vote distribution. Then, go to RealClearPolitics.Com (Election 2008 Latest Polls). Dating back to early May, it lists polling results by various organizations* for PAIRS of head-to-head match-ups, McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama, in 27 states**, some surveyed more than once. For each state, take the latest of the PAIRED outcomes and plug the commensurate apportionment of electoral votes into the Bush-Kerry template. As of May 27:

M - C - Tossup = 199 - 312 - 27. M - O - Tossup = 292 - 246 - 0.

In McCain v. Clinton, John flips no states; Hillary flips AR, FL, KY, MO, NV, NM, NC, and OH from red to blue. In McCain v. Obama, John flips MI from blue to red; Barack flips CO, IA, and NM from red to blue.

Other projections at Electoral-Vote.Com and FiveThirtyEight.Com. as of May 27:

M - C - T = 194 - 327 - 17. M - O - T = 248 - 266 - 24.

M - C - T = 251 - 287 - 0. M - O - T = 265 - 273 - 0.

Average of projections:

M - C - T = 215 – 309 - 14. M - O - T = 268 - 262 - 8.

* Behavior Research Center. Deseret News. LA Times/KTLA. Mason-Dixon. Quinnipiac. Rasmussen. Research2000. SurveyUSA. Virginia Commonwealth University.

** AL AZ AR CA CO FL GA IA KS

[Kantinflas]

** AL AZ AR CA CO FL GA IA KS KY MI MN MO MT NE NV NH NM NC OH OR PA TX UT VA WA WI

[DrDemon]

H**A**H ?

[111]

Have you accounted for the Bob Barr effect???

[levibatgirl]

Go Obama!