Polls: Obama Improving In Key General Election States

UPDATE: (5/27): SurveyUSA's continuing polling of swing states has produced this Iowa poll, where Obama holds a 9-point lead over McCain.

UPDATE (5/23): Survey USA has an Ohio poll suggesting a sizable 9-point lead for Barack Obama in a matchup against McCain.

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Original Post: A series of recent polls suggest Barack Obama has begun to open big leads in some states that will be crucial to the a Democratic win in November. But in at least two swing states, Clinton continues to outperform John McCain while Obama lags behind.

California: Obama Opens Big Lead Over McCain, Clinton's Unfavorability Rises

According to a survey conducted over the past 10 days by the Public Policy Institute of California, 59 percent of likely voters here now have a "favorable" impression of Democrat Obama, while a majority view both of the other candidates unfavorably. In a state whose Democratic primary Clinton won in February, 51 percent of voters now say they have an unfavorable opinion of her; 53 percent of voters feel the same way about Republican McCain.

Obama, meanwhile, seems to be making strides across nearly every constituency. If the general election were held today, 54 percent of Californians say they would vote for him, compared with 37 percent for McCain. That gap has widened by 8 points since March. Obama enjoys the support of more than 80 percent of Democrats here, along with over half (55 percent) of independents. He leads McCain among men and women and is viewed favorably by nearly 70 percent of Latinos--a powerful political group, experts note, not just in California but in several other western states, including Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

Virginia: Obama Beats McCain By 7

In October of 2006, John McCain led Barack Obama among Virginia's registered voters by 20 points. Today, 19 months later, the same question, using the same methodology, as you can see in the table below, shows Barack Obama defeating John McCain by 7 points.

Florida: Clinton Beats McCain, McCain Beats Obama

Clinton: 48%

McCain: 41%

Obama: 41%
McCain: 45%

Ohio: Clinton Beats McCain, McCain Beats Obama

Clinton: 48%

McCain: 41%

Obama: 40%
McCain: 44%

Pennsylvania: Clinton, Obama Beat McCain

Clinton: 50%

McCain: 37%

Obama: 46%
McCain: 40%

Comments

[republiscum]

09:54 AM on 05/28/2008

MCsame is delusional just like Bush. Republicans are ANTI MIDDLE CLASS AMERICANS...check this link out>
http://therealmccain.com/?utm_source=rgemail

[mhopgood123]

12:00 AM on 05/28/2008

I am going away on Thursday and when I come back I hope to see that Obama has won the nomination. I will then volunteer to campaign for him in the general election and being bilingual I will work for every Latino vote out there. We will win in November with the help of the hispanic vote. We will kick Bush and Cheney out of the WHite House and all their right wing conservative friends who have taken this country from the people and paralyzed us with fear.
My son Julian who is diabetic may finally get that stemcell transplant he wants. He may be able to continue his DNA research at University of Chicago without worrying too much about his student loans. His girlfriend may be able to get that much wanted biomedical job so they can get married.My other son, Ryan may be able to pay for his student loans without fear of rates getting out of control. I may be able to get a decent job that will allow me to do meaningful volunteer work without risking a secure retirement. So many possibilites.........what a wonderful future for America with Obama in the White House

[humuhumunukunukuapuaa]

11:45 PM on 05/27/2008

Don't forget that both McCain and Hillary lead Obama in the "hard working, evangelical, white, gun-owning, redneck, lower-middle class, high-school educated, multi-pet owning, blue-collar, ranch-home dwelling, FOX News-watching demographic", which comes to about three dozen voters.

[going2ireland]

11:52 PM on 05/27/2008

Heh heh!!

[abby4ever]

07:09 AM on 05/28/2008

This is one of the funniest posts I've read in about a week. And God knows we need the humor, given some of the anti-Obama posts here.

[beboy]

11:00 PM on 05/27/2008

McCain being behind in Iowa isn't much for him to worry about. He skipped the Iowa caucus because his stand against ethanol subsidies is so unpopular there. A much bigger problem for McCain is that he is only 3% ahead of Sen. Obama in todays Gallup Poll. His lead should be much larger against a candidate who is basically unelectable.

[UnbiasView]

11:11 PM on 05/27/2008

At some point someone needs to act like a man and tell the farmers banking off of ethanol and government subsides that corn ethanol isn't going to work.

[going2ireland]

11:48 PM on 05/27/2008

And just why won't it work? YOu have a lot invested with the oil companies?

[AMJordan]

11:58 PM on 05/27/2008

You are right, sir! Sugar beet ethanol is going to be the wave of the future.

[EvoMan]

11:46 PM on 05/27/2008

If he's unelectable, how come he keeps winning elections?

[beboy]

11:55 PM on 05/27/2008

Yeah, against Alan Keyes and Hillary.

[CommentSense]

10:56 PM on 05/27/2008

There's a simple reason Obama is improving in these key states; the reason this will be an historic year that will reformat the red and blue states- at this moment in each of those states (and the other key states) people are meeting with each other, donations are being made, the groundwork is being laid. It's not reported each day in the media but it is quietly happening way underneath the radar. The organizational pyramid is slowly rising.

[UnbiasView]

11:14 PM on 05/27/2008

If he wants to "reformat the red and blue states" he needs to get some white people to vote for him. Since the whole Rev Wright thing he has only won the white vote in OR & VT.

[dawn2dusk]

11:26 PM on 05/27/2008

Only? are they more or less white?

vote the issues not the spin

[incontempt]

11:30 PM on 05/27/2008

oh please...he has won many states...you just cry because we can see through the RUSE...no one cares about crazy preachers(technically all crazy) and i'm pretty sure No states have changed their priorities over that mudslinging, you can't get much whiter then maine and we pulled for obama!

[ATFIllinois]

11:15 PM on 05/27/2008

The next revolution in America will not be televised!

[CommentSense]

11:26 PM on 05/27/2008

Oh yeah... Gil Scott-Heron WAS a visionary.

[AMJordan]

11:59 PM on 05/27/2008

Nope, it's going to be on the YouTube, Ipod and laptop.

[SpaceCadet]

10:44 PM on 05/27/2008

These polls are certainly encouraging, but keep in mind that the GOP has not yet opened its sewers to unleash the full fury of their well-funded Swift Boat Liars. Obama is going to have a hard time not keeping from being drowned in the sea of lies.

[UnbiasView]

11:12 PM on 05/27/2008

Please remember that polls are a snapshot in time, in May of 2004, John Kerry had a double digit lead against Bush . . . how did that turn out?

[ATFIllinois]

11:16 PM on 05/27/2008

Not with so many millions researching those lies.

[paganmist]

09:44 PM on 05/27/2008

After Bush/Gore, we discovered that it's possible to have the popular vote, but lose according to election metrics. But this system of delegates and caucuses made Hillary's husband the nominee - twice - and she did not complain. She has made no effort to protest or change these processes since then.

She knew that MI/FL would not count. Spoken October 11, 2007:

"You know, it's clear this election they're having is not going to count for anything." Audio here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULxxBz-PAjg

At first, the ruleswere undeniably in her favor, and by that mutually approved metric, she was winning. It is completely fair that by this same metric, any one of her competitors could gain the lead.

The media/pundits/supporters have all been biased and vicious all around. But each candidate knew the risks going in, and knew that pressure or unfair news coverage has no effect on the rules: MI/FL stripped 100%. Delegates determine nominee. The rest is up to good campaign management, good luck, and the American voters - none of which changes the set rules.

To change the rules at this stage of the competition is dishonest. To embrace these rules while Hillary was winning, then call them unfair once she began losing, is to declare that she *deserves* to win, whether it is fair or not.

And that very idea counters every notion of fairness and equality that is supposed to define this party and this country.

[rr52]

09:34 PM on 05/27/2008

Obama improving against McCain? Maybe that's why so many superdelegates haven't cast votes yet. The idea is to elect the candidate that is in the best position to win against the Republican opponent. Look at the stats. Hillary is that best candidate, like it or not! And she has the popular vote by the thousands. Obama is already gaffing way too much. They will pin flip flop to him easily because I've watched him do it. He tends to stretch the truth and has already been caught, first on single payer health insurance, to his claim to Iowa about passing nuclear legislation that never went anywhere in reality, to the latest WWII memories of his grandfather, ur um uncle, or make that great uncle. The Repugs will eat him alive on his foreign policy alone. When Trent Lott was resurrected everyone should have been on alert that something was up. Lott and 30-40 obstructionists in the senate have managed to keep a Democratic majority at bay. Obama is a walk in the park for them.

[Wingit]

09:52 PM on 05/27/2008

What will Hillary be saying when she has to answer questions about Whitewater, Monica Lewinsky, the WH travel office firings, Her inability to pass a health care program even though she was the leader of the process? Those are just a few of the man items in the HRC baggage that the Repubs are ready and eager to bring up. Just because Obama didn't stoop to bring them out in his campaign, does not mean the Repugs will play nice also.

[pilgrim7]

11:34 PM on 05/27/2008

Not to mention her delayed-until-after-the-election Peter Paul $17 million fraud trial, the "media coverup" of the century, that's all over YouTube:

Clintons to face fraud trial
Judge setting date, testimony to include ex-president, senator

� 2008 WorldNetDaily

While Hillary Clinton battles Barack Obama on the campaign trail, a judge in Los Angeles is quietly preparing to set a trial date in a $17 million fraud suit that aims to expose an alleged culture of widespread corruption by the Clintons and the Democratic Party.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=56868

[going2ireland]

11:36 PM on 05/27/2008

And don't think that the GOP hasn't seen and isn't aware of the Clinton Machinery shown in the movie "The Clinton Chronicles". How is Hillary gonna lie her way out of all of that mess? Huh?

[pilgrim7]

10:17 PM on 05/27/2008

SAN FRANCISCO—A new poll released today in California finds political momentum shifting dramatically toward Barack Obama—and away from both Hillary Clinton and John McCain—in the nation's most populous state. According to a survey conducted over the past 10 days by the Public Policy Institute of California (nonpartisan group which surveyed more than 2,000 voters), 59 percent of likely voters here now have a "favorable" impression of Democrat Obama, while a majority view both of the other candidates unfavorably.

Obama… seems to be making strides across nearly every constituency…Obama enjoys the support of more than 80 percent of Democrats here, along with over half (55 percent) of independents. He leads McCain among men and women and is viewed favorably by nearly 70 percent of Latinos—a powerful political group, experts note, not just in California but in several other western states...

... Obama campaign…has faced questions—many of them from Clinton herself—about its candidate's general election chances after dramatic defeats in WVA/KY…In California, at least, Latinos and low-income whites—two groups who strongly supported Clinton in the state's primary—have rallied behind (Obama) in the months since February.

… the survey may offer a much-needed boost to the Obama campaign, which has faced questions—many of them from Clinton herself—about its candidate's general election chances after dramatic defeats in WVA/KY... For Democrats who supported Clinton…and looking at the general election…they are coming together."

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/05/22/new-poll-finds-big-shift-toward-obama.html

[NicoleAnonymous]

09:24 PM on 05/27/2008

Is Huffington Post having another "we must delete ANYTHING that is controversial because our reputation will be destroyed" day or am I imagining posts are disappearing because I'm crazy and can't remember which discussion I was in and went to the wrong place?

[NicoleAnonymous]

09:27 PM on 05/27/2008

It was my fault - sometimes I can't remember which discussion I'm in...

[pilgrim7]

11:52 PM on 05/27/2008

LOL. We're all losing it.

[ElPerro]

08:32 PM on 05/27/2008

....and along comes Bob Barr to seal the deal!

[Ariesjill]

07:31 PM on 05/27/2008

Slow and steady (& brilliant, principled, original, grounded, elegant, emotionally healthy) but mainly Real Deal....wins the race. This time table is part of the Natural World and EVOLUTION. Which, OK, is just a theory embraced by not God-fearing people who are going straight to hell.

The big white colonial on PA Ave NEEDS a lttle flame detailing!

[EvoMan]

07:21 PM on 05/27/2008

All of this arguing over polls is downright silly at this point. Think back to the polls of late last year. Did any of them predict where we are now?

It's time to get behind the nominee so that we do win in November. And that nominee is Senator Obama.

[DesertLight]

07:14 PM on 05/27/2008

That's it ladies and gentlemen we are calling Florida for John Kerry. It doesn't matter how the rest of you vote. It is over, President elect John F. Kerry ( aka. Lurch).

Keep the spin going boys.

[Ariesjill]

07:38 PM on 05/27/2008

We are not doing spin. You are.....tho your wheels came of the vehicle long ago.

[DesertLight]

07:52 PM on 05/27/2008

If you read some of my other posts, I can't stand McCain.

[DrDemon]

08:27 PM on 05/27/2008

Gee.. Brings back memories of 2000.

Afterall, that's exactly how it happened; except it was President reject George W. Bush, not Kerry!

[Kantinflas]

06:51 PM on 05/27/2008

Victory = 270 electoral votes. Who's winning now? Start with the Bush-Kerry 2004 Rep-Dem electoral vote distribution. Then, go to RealClearPolitics.Com (Election 2008 Latest Polls). Dating back to early May, it lists polling results by various organizations* for PAIRS of head-to-head match-ups, McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama, in 27 states**, some surveyed more than once. For each state, take the latest of the PAIRED outcomes and plug the commensurate apportionment of electoral votes into the Bush-Kerry template. As of May 27:

M - C - Tossup = 199 - 312 - 27. M - O - Tossup = 292 - 246 - 0.

In McCain v. Clinton, John flips no states; Hillary flips AR, FL, KY, MO, NV, NM, NC, and OH from red to blue. In McCain v. Obama, John flips MI from blue to red; Barack flips CO, IA, and NM from red to blue.

Other projections at Electoral-Vote.Com and FiveThirtyEight.Com. as of May 27:

M - C - T = 194 - 327 - 17. M - O - T = 248 - 266 - 24.

M - C - T = 251 - 287 - 0. M - O - T = 265 - 273 - 0.

Average of projections:

M - C - T = 215 – 309 - 14. M - O - T = 268 - 262 - 8.

* Behavior Research Center. Deseret News. LA Times/KTLA. Mason-Dixon. Quinnipiac. Rasmussen. Research2000. SurveyUSA. Virginia Commonwealth University.

** AL AZ AR CA CO FL GA IA KS

[Kantinflas]

06:55 PM on 05/27/2008

** AL AZ AR CA CO FL GA IA KS KY MI MN MO MT NE NV NH NM NC OH OR PA TX UT VA WA WI

[DrDemon]

08:28 PM on 05/27/2008

H**A**H ?

[levibatgirl]

06:36 PM on 05/27/2008

Go Obama!