Obama's Appalachia Problem Is Real, But Does It Matter

After months of pundits breaking the electorate into racial categories, the factor of geography is slowly being added to the mix. Obama's alleged problem with white voters is being modified; now the problem seems to be with working class voters in the Appalachian region.

Newsweek recently tried to quantify how race and geography could affect Obama in the fall. They note that while the Appalachian problem is more focused than simply a failure to connect with white working class voters, it is still a big problem:

Appalachia is a big place, encompassing 13 states: southwestern New York, western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, West Virginia, western Maryland, western Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, western North and South Carolina, and northern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. You cannot afford to lose all those states and still win in November. Other pollsters have suggested that the race factor is at least noticeable in a much wider swath of rural America, where 60 million voters reside. One recent Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of rural voters in battleground states showed that you are trailing McCain by 9 points (and that Clinton runs even with him). Dee Davis, president of a Kentucky-based advocacy group called the Center for Rural Strategies, points out in a recent article on Salon.com that in June 2004, John Kerry trailed George W. Bush by the same 9-point margin in the same rural battlegrounds.

Your mission is to not wind up like Kerry, who ended up losing the rural vote by 20 points. The "reality," writes Davis, "is that when Democratic candidates run competitively in rural America, they win national elections. And when they get creamed in rural America, they lose."

But Democrats to not need to achieve parity with John McCain among this voting bloc in order to win the election. And one analyst says Obama currently, "is clocking in where he needs to be":

Ruy Teixeira, a Democratic analyst of voting trends, wrote the book on the core issue in the endgame of the party's nomination fight. Its title is "America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters."...

Al Gore lost working-class white voters by 17 percentage points in 2000, even while winning the national popular vote. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts lost them by 23 points in 2004, while running within three points of President Bush over all. Mr. Teixeira suggests that Mr. Obama can win the presidency if he comes within 10 to 12 percentage points of Mr. McCain with these voters, as Democratic candidates for the House did in the 2006 midterm election.

Still, what can be done to shore up support? Greg Sargent has an idea:

All this renewed talk about Appalachia reminds me that Obama privately promised John Edwards that he'd undertake a poverty tour in the general election. Why not take that tour, with Edwards at his side, right through the heart of Appalachia?

And Will Thomas reported on Sen. Jim Webb's intense interest and knowledge about the troubles faced by the Scot-Irish community that makes up the Appalachian population at issue. Webb has been repeatedly mentioned as a vice president for Obama, and could help to balance out support.

Comments

[CAPTAINSKIPPY]

The whole flavor of this seems fundamentally wrong. The planning here seems to be finding a way to triangulate a sufficient slice of rural America, nothing more. So do real Democrats care about the poor, not to mention the causes of poverty, or not? Are we turning into "moderate" Rethugs? those neoCon centrists who have done very well disregarding the concerns of the poor?

[Vern58]

I would include the people of Southern Indiana in this region. And from my own experience working for Obama in this state- the race problem cannot be ignored.

[iluvsam]

Yes, it matters. Since when does every vote NOT matter? Aren't the Democrats the Party of INCLUSION? These people SHOULD matter to Obama.

Obama better bring the army of 17 million Clinton voters, or he's screwed in November.
I know the Obama supporters have problems with this, but it's true.

The Clinton supporters right now are very bitter at the way the Clintons have been treated. Rejection of her as VP will be seen as a slap in the face. As a result, they are not going to want to take the time to get to know a new/different VP candidate. That VP choice won't have the level of name recognition as Hillary, and a lot of the Clinton supporters are NOT going to want to take the time to get to know the history and politics of someone new-- let alone campaign for or go to bat for Obama at the family dinner party or the Labor Day picnic when their candidate was treated so badly by Obama supporters. They will pick the recognizable name, McCain, over Obama, because they WILL be bitter at Hillary's treatment. So, keep spewing the hate Obamaites. Watch how it works out in the long run. It may be all fun and games now, but it won't be when you have 4 more years of hell.

I will vote for Obama, because I'm a loyal Democrat, and I like him. However, those on the fence, won't be as loyal.

[SusaninIN]

I'm an Obama supporter who would rather see him lose in November without Hillary than win with her. I don't want another 4 to 8 years of Drama that the Clintons always seem to bring. And no, my problem with the Clintons has nothing to do with my support of Obama. My dislike of Bill and Hillary dates back 16 years, but my support of Obama has just been a few months. I have seen nothing this campaign to make me think that my original opinion of them was wrong. In fact, just the opposite. I believe that respect is earned and so far Hillary has not earned mine. When and if she ever does, I will revise my opinion.

[iluvsam]

What? You would rather see the entire country suffer economically, see innocent people continue to die in Iraq, a continual increase of the national debt, etc., because you hate the Clintons? Wow. THAT is amazing.

Whether you like them or not, Bill brought the greatest prosperity to this country, balanced the budget, helped enact the Family Medical Leave Act, developed a huge love affair for the U.S. from our allies around the world, etc., and you don't like them because "they bring drama"? UGH. They may bring drama, but they bring MANY tremendously fabulous things with them too.

[katzooks]

The anti-Obama and anti-Hillary propaganda has provided ample ammo for the zillions of hateful missives strewn across the web. It's a shame that any candidate is judged by disinformation and outright lies. Obama will need to work hard to extricate lies from truth.

Sen. Jim Webb recently spoke on Obama's lack of support among the working class, particularly in Appalachia. A native Appalachian, Webb believes that, once these voters have an opportunity to meet and actually hear Obama, they will understand that he speaks (and has all along) for them, which would diminish the race issue. I agree.

The "poverty tour" is a necessity -- not just for Appalachia, but the whole country, embedded throughout with abject poverty. John Edwards made the war on poverty part of his platform, and Obama has agreed to wear this mantle. John Edwards and Jim Webb have powerful voices to lend this cause, which has less to do with race than with the disintegration of American manufacturing, which has hit hardest among working class Americans, no matter what their race, gender or region.

I believe that, once the people in Appalachia meet Obama and hear that he speaks for them, they'll understand this: their plight, shared by many families across this country, has gone ignored by the "compassionate" conservatives. Obama has made clear his intention to fight poverty. Now, if only working class American could hear his actual voice, above the chatter of rumor, innuendo, disinformation and lies circulating the internet.

[Lesjoan]

Obama is full of hot air!

[Pammy1151]

I just read your profile and you are one angry person. I live in Florida and voted Obama so I guess we cancelled out each other vote!!!!

[Felicty]

Poor, ignorant white people in that part of the country won't vote for him.

Why is that a problem?

[surrytops]

Because poor, ignorant white people have the right to vote too and they do. I am voting for Obama because I believe that he cares about poor, ignorant white people. That is the main reason I am voting for him. Watch who you're calling ignorant. Do you have any idea how many amazing Americans are from Appalachia? Abraham Lincoln, just to mention one.

Obama should come here and show people who he really is. He should look us in the eyes, shake our hands, worship with us and learn about us. We have been an exploited minority ourselves. We have also been some of the strongest, hardest workers for change in America. Has your family ever worked in a coal mine? Do you know how important we were to the union movement? We in the border states are more united racially than many of you imagine. Don't you dare count as out!

[robeson]

The steady decline of the middle-class since they turn to Reagan shows that the problem is bigger than Appalachia. Will the middle-class continue their decline by voting their fears and prejudices, or will they vote their interests and stop the fall?

[Krikkit]

This scenario of taking a poverty tour may be the reason why Hillary decided to start hitting on the "assassination" theme. Could Obama risk such a tour if Hillary's comments inflamed racial hatred in these states to the point where it could be too risky to do?

And for those of you who insist that Hillary's comments were a mere gaffe, a mistaken choice of words, let me remind you that the SD interview was not the first time she's brought the subject up. RFK jr. pointed out that he'd heard her make those comments before. We now have heard that she used the word "assassination" once before and referenced it more obliquely at least two other times.

Clinton's "gaffes" have a way of being deliberate.

I don't believe that Obama needs to risk this. He can win the general election with Kerry's map plus the addition of one or a few Western states, plus Virginia. And he is polling well ahead of McLame in Ohio.

[heeth]

I'm so sick of people talking about the "white working class vote". Hillary's supporters don't seem to understand that this is the democratic party. No democrat will get that many of these voters. Do you really think these voters will vote for Hillary over McCain?

Hillary can't win the General when a huge chunk of the party that being African Americans stay home. That is a fact, She won't win PA.or OH. AA are the most loyal to the democratic party. White working class voters aren't.

[CocteausTwin]

OK if Obama has a problem with voters within the Appalachia mountain range, then he should by all means take a tour following its route through America. It would a beautiful journey. It is one of the many beauties our great nation contain. I truly believe Obama message does even better when there is that personal connection.

I am not talking about only large venues and I do not think he should try to to act like them. He should show his ability to listen to others and speak to his own personal background. Be the wondering traveler who interacts with other cultures to reinforce his own beliefs that there are distinct "flavors" between people of different locale, but how we all share many common bonds and attitudes. Attitudes shared I believe would include values such as honesty, mutual respect, a fulfilling job, an honest wage, security for one's family, and celebration of what makes us unique.

Do I come off as too idealistic? In the eyes of some that would certainly be the case, they could be correct. But I do believe we could attain more of the values mentioned if we try as hard as we can to speak with one another. Remember there will always exist people who do not want or hold true these values and are more than willing to try to prevent the attainment of these values, even if it only entails posting divisive or untrue posts on some anonymous comment section.

[era996]

Yes, he will lose all of them plus NJ and MO
McCain will be prseident, thanks to jelous and arrogant suppers like Teddy, Kerry, Richardson
Well , they just want another loser to join in

[EinChicago]

Obama doesn't need the appalachan vote; he will put new states in play. And Obama doesn't need those pesky hispanic votes whioch despise him so much; he puts new states in play. Nor does Obama need any of those women folk votes; he will put new states in play. And Obama certainly doesn't need those moderate swing votes; he puts new states in play. Nor does Obama need FL, MI,. PA, OH, he puts new states in play.

he doesn't need to worry about the south west because he puts the south east in play. And he doesn't need to worry that he will lose the south east because he puts the west in play. And he doesn't need to worry that he will lose the western hispanic majority, because even when he loses the west, he puts the midwest in play. And he doesn't need to worry about teh fact that he will lose the midwest states like OHio, PA, MS, etc, because, well, he will win Illinois. And Isn't that what the 50 state pln is all about? Win Illinois and nothing else? And of course, he doesn't need to worry that his 50 state plan exlcudes about 25 states that his supporters have written off as not being hip, urban centers, because after all Obama himself has visited 57 states.

[ntmessage]

Good post and it seems like some in the media are finally kicking around Obamas true issue, electability. Obamaweek as Newsweek is now recognized due to their amazingly unabashed desire not only to please but also campaign for Obama is simply trying to rationalize for Super Delegates that Obama is in better shape than he is, only to deflect from the obvious, at least to thoughtful and logical thinkers.

The Appalachian issue is more focused than the white vote by definition alone. Obamas weakness in the general it is not about race, it is about Reagan Democrats. This problem is across the board except in Illinois. It is structural.

After spending over a quarter of a billion dollars, Obama has only repulsed them in greater numbers. This means that he will likely never connect, especially against McCain. If this was Bush, he would have a chance to narrow his gap, but against McCain, many calculations demonstrate another outcome ignored by Newsweek and this post. He could easily do worse than Kerry with these voters.

Lastly, for all the shouting down of everyone with an alternate opinions, turnout of Reagan Democrats this cycle will blow away all predictions. Given they are already in place demographically in much greater numbers than the much touted new Obama voters Obama will likely do worse than already expected.

These voters are now more predisposed than ever to vote for Clinton or McCain and against Obama. Blowback is a drag.

[GodisHateSpeech]

Reagan democrats are a myth.

[ntmessage]

Ask Carter about that, before he completely loses his mind.

[letuckerchicago]

"It is not about race, it is about Reagan Democrats."

And who are Reagan Democrats? They are working class white Democrats who were once again snookered into thinking that race identity was more important than economic self-interest. In modern political terms, many white working class Democrats have, at least as far back as the Reagan era, preferred race identity and "social conservatism" even as their economic status deteriorates even more. These people are losing family members in Iraq, can't afford to send their children to college, are one job cut from foreclosure and can't afford health care. If they continue to refuse to acknowledge their common interests with their Black and Brown working class bretheren, and prefer to "cling" to mythical issues of lapel pins and secret Muslim agendas, they will, in four years, be poorer, sicker and less educated. John McCain has no particular interest in the interests of the "Reagan Democracts".

"We will live together as brothers and sisters or die as fools."

[Krikkit]

Clinton has a much harder time than Obama on the electoral vote front. According to matchup polls, Hillary would LOSE some of Kerry's states, making her election bid a certain failure.

Obama can take Kerry's map and add in the missing 15 electoral votes in Western states picked up, plus Virginia or Ohio where he is now polling well above McSame.

[patch61]

oh yes it will especially when its all sen.hillary clintons votes .....without them you will not win, mccain will.

[kay]

The Clintons have a credibility problem, but does it matter?

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That night, George Stephanopoulos, who was then a top aide to Mr. Clinton, declared that it was "mathematically impossible for Brown to get the nomination" " the start of a campaign to declare Mr. Clinton the presumed nominee, even as several other major primaries loomed.

"So, lightning would have to strike," Mr. Stephanopoulos, now with ABC News, said at the time, a phrase he repeated last week to describe Mrs. Clinton"s chances against Mr. Obama.

Mr. Clinton soon made a victorious visit to Capitol Hill, where he began trying to rally to his side the party leaders with automatic convention seats known as superdelegates.

And party members reported an effort by Clinton allies and ranking party officials to pressure uncommitted superdelegates to line up behind Mr. Clinton, a strategy he decried this past weekend when he accused "them" of bullying superdelegates early to choose sides between Mr. Obama and his wife.

"There"s this frantic effort to push her out," he said, adding, "I"ve never seen a candidate treated so disrespectfully just for running."

[Faxus]

I watched Stephanopoulos stand in for Gibson in ABC last nite. Both those guys can't hold a candle to peter Jennings. Pete! We miss you. ABC should fire them both.

[sparkandy]

Wow! A comment! Did the monitors wake up? Or did this one slip through?