Obama's Appalachia Problem Is Real, But Does It Matter

After months of pundits breaking the electorate into racial categories, the factor of geography is slowly being added to the mix. Obama's alleged problem with white voters is being modified; now the problem seems to be with working class voters in the Appalachian region.

Newsweek recently tried to quantify how race and geography could affect Obama in the fall. They note that while the Appalachian problem is more focused than simply a failure to connect with white working class voters, it is still a big problem:

Appalachia is a big place, encompassing 13 states: southwestern New York, western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, West Virginia, western Maryland, western Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, western North and South Carolina, and northern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. You cannot afford to lose all those states and still win in November. Other pollsters have suggested that the race factor is at least noticeable in a much wider swath of rural America, where 60 million voters reside. One recent Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of rural voters in battleground states showed that you are trailing McCain by 9 points (and that Clinton runs even with him). Dee Davis, president of a Kentucky-based advocacy group called the Center for Rural Strategies, points out in a recent article on Salon.com that in June 2004, John Kerry trailed George W. Bush by the same 9-point margin in the same rural battlegrounds.

Your mission is to not wind up like Kerry, who ended up losing the rural vote by 20 points. The "reality," writes Davis, "is that when Democratic candidates run competitively in rural America, they win national elections. And when they get creamed in rural America, they lose."

But Democrats to not need to achieve parity with John McCain among this voting bloc in order to win the election. And one analyst says Obama currently, "is clocking in where he needs to be":

Ruy Teixeira, a Democratic analyst of voting trends, wrote the book on the core issue in the endgame of the party's nomination fight. Its title is "America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters."...

Al Gore lost working-class white voters by 17 percentage points in 2000, even while winning the national popular vote. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts lost them by 23 points in 2004, while running within three points of President Bush over all. Mr. Teixeira suggests that Mr. Obama can win the presidency if he comes within 10 to 12 percentage points of Mr. McCain with these voters, as Democratic candidates for the House did in the 2006 midterm election.

Still, what can be done to shore up support? Greg Sargent has an idea:

All this renewed talk about Appalachia reminds me that Obama privately promised John Edwards that he'd undertake a poverty tour in the general election. Why not take that tour, with Edwards at his side, right through the heart of Appalachia?

And Will Thomas reported on Sen. Jim Webb's intense interest and knowledge about the troubles faced by the Scot-Irish community that makes up the Appalachian population at issue. Webb has been repeatedly mentioned as a vice president for Obama, and could help to balance out support.

Comments

[Haig]

There are alot of patronizing comments here about the Scots/Irish in Appalachia. Calling them hillbillies,bigots,etc. Comments and attitudes like that are precisely what will lose the election for Obama in November and usher in McCain (i.e Bush lll). Barack Obama needs to join statesmen like Webb and Edwards and reach out to these people. The best thing he could do is take Edward's so called poverty tour thru the region - and emphasize that we are all, in the end, Americans first. Remember Kerry lost in 2004 because of one state - Ohio. And he lost Ohio largely in the eastern, Appalachian region of the state.

[Sabreen60]

Is Obama posting here? No? Well how can you blame him for what a hand full of people are saying on this blog. No one has said that all people in Appalachia are racist. However, a good percentage admitted to being racist on exit polls. Obama cannot be blamed for those people who are racist and he cannot be blamed for what someone said on some blog. I am sure he will attempt to win over as many people he can.

[Daisy1111]

To the poster named 'HappyBlackMan"...

You asked me for a link about Colin Pwell defending Obama. It was here on HuffPo:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/09/colin-powell-says-obama-h_n_95940.html

Also, note that Powell has been silent on McCain. He has openly admitted he is an Obama advisor.

Keep in mind many Generals register Republican for political reasons.

Colin Powell grew up in Harlem. I guarantee you he's not a Republican at heart.

(I'm a native NYer transplanted to FL & have friends who grew up in Harlem)

[olivia]

First Obama has to morph into Hillary, now he has to morph into Colin Powell? Good grief!

None of this is helpful - to anyone.

[SpawnOfJerry]

I don't know if anyone has answered this already, but. . .

"Obama's Appalachia Problem Is Real, But Does It Matter"

No.

Brought to you by "Simply Answers to Simple Questions."

Carry on.

[Anonani]

It matters. It really matters because every time any person of color speaks of race, racism, and ongoing bigotry there are those who dismiss it as the ravings of a generation who cannot see the progress that we have made. The generation of the Jeremiah Wrights are dismissed as being stuck and daring to make the larger society "uncomfortable" by bringing up historically ancient incidents that have no bearings on 2008. All I have to say about any of this is hmmmmmmmmmm.

[williamg]

I think we make a mistake of writting off a whole region as racist. We aren't doing alot of good people in the region any justice at all.

[Podewumun]

Thank you, williamg. Yours is one of the few intelligent and truly compassionate posts I've read in four pages.

[srtjsrtj]

DIVIDING UP AMERICAN IS EXACTLY WHAT THEY DID 400 YEARS AGO. WE ARE AMERICANS BLACK, WHITE, ASIAN, CHINESE, HISPANIC, ETC. WE WILL NOT ALLOW THE MEDIA TO DIVIDE US EVER EVER EVER AGAIN.

THEY SAID THE SAME THINGS ABOUT JACK KENNEKY, BUT HE WON DIDN'T HE.

[olivia]

That's an exaggeration. Appalachia is being discussed as an electoral difficulty for Obama, and the reason based on exit polls is a LOT of people who have a problem with his race. That's all.

I know there are many people in Appalachia who are not racists. Again, it's a electoral problem.

[GeoNorth]

I find it hard to believe that there are still that many racists out there. But they are. When I hear the networks referring to KY and WV voters as white non-college educated blue collar workers, I'm insulted. That's their euphamism for mountain bigots. Just call them for the bitter racists that they are. And while we're at it, I still hear dropshots saying that they want a President that they could have a beer with. The last time they did that , they elected an alky. What a party the last seven and a half years have been. What's wrong with having a professional, well educated intellectual run the country. Better than the well educated idiot who currently runs this place.

[Podewumun]

Just because Bush received a diploma, that doesn't necessarily mean he was well educated.

[Myshkin57]

Good thing. Otherwise, he'd be an elitist.

[NotMcCain]

CNN interviewed some of these people and it was pretty bad. ("I don't want no more 'Hussein'. We've had enough 'Hussein'." or "I can't vote for no Muslim for president." etc.)

Nevertheless, even though Bush carried West Va. and Kentucky both times, I think that an Obama/Webb ticket might get through to a lot of people. Maybe I'm naive, but I believe a lot of it is misinformation and mistrust. I never would have thought the election would have worked out like it has, so...people can learn, people can change.

I'm tired, though, of the media talking about white blue collar workers not supporting Obama. My family's that way, and they ALL support him. He's split that group 45 / 54 many times with Hillary, even surpassed her in some places, like Oregon. So, I wish they'd stop with the stereotyping.

And just because someone's "blue collar" doesn't mean they're "unintelligent".

[Raymondf]

West Virginia is a Democratic state too. 2 to 1 dem. We hold our Republican conventions in a phone booth.

[BlackandProud]

You seem to have forgotten that Bill Clinton's poll numbers began to surge after he went on MTV and talked about his underwear, and went on Arsenio Hall and played saxaphone.

Unfortunately that's the way way 90% of American pick a president these days, in my opinion.

As a jazz & soul music producer, I can tell you that most of the young urban kids I work with are going to vote Obama because his skin is black. You might say "hey, that's racist"... and you may be right. I don't know. I'm just saying... that's how most people vote today. That's why Obama gets 9 out of every 10 black votes.

The last poll I read regarding this said 6% of whites will consider skin color when casting their vote this year, and 28% of blacks will consider skin color when casting their vote.

Does this mean blacks are more racist? I hope not. I hope it's just the uneducated sector that acts this way. It's unfortunate. I try my best to urge people to learn about a candidates policies, beliefs, and record.

[tiredofhillary]

I am an Obama supporter, African American and a woman. I am not, and many people that I speak with, voting for him because he's black.

I, like many AA's have been listening to the issues. There is not a lot of difference between the two candidates, but that small difference is what tilted me to Sen. Obama. When I speak with people about this election and their chose, we all talk over the issues and the likes and dis-likes.

Many of us in the AA community are politically savy voters. The thought that most AA's are voting for him because he's black in an insult. It implies that we aren't smart enough to make an intelligent decision. We know when we've been taken for granted by a certain candidate, we know when race is used by a certain candidate for political gain and division, we understand that when a certain candidate brings assassination into the political conversation, that they are saying more about their true feeling, we also understand when a certain candidate tries to change the rules because they could not win the primaries on the merits.

We deserve a little more credit.

[pupbayer]

It IS surprising in this day and age that so many racists still exist. Without going into a long speech, I think Bush has made it OK to speak out about prejudice whether it be race, gender, sexual orientation, religion. He has taken us back decades.

That being said, I think people make a mistake thinking racists are centered in WV or KY. I live and work in rural southern Ohio which is very much like WV and KY and while there are racists here I think there were more in the white upperclass bedroom community where I grew up farther north. My friends in GA and MS always get on me about the North being much more racist than the South. I'm not sure they're wrong.

My point being that it is invalid to paint these areas as so much more racist than others...maybe they hide it less but unfortunately racists are everywhere in our society...every geographical location and every social level.

[AnotherTry]

Is there a reason no one here wants to discuss a real strategy? What's going on here? Can't you handle an open debate? Do you have to control everything?



http://www.youtube.com/user/msbuch72

[Chillinout]

And what, exactly, does that link have to do with this story here?

Nothing, that's what.

[AnotherTry]

If Obama can't get white working class men, women, and gays. How do you suggest he win?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOb4YQyXiwM

[Freedomscap]

Senator Webb was on MSNBC and he informed me that these folks in the Appalachian region are the Scots/Irish.

[Podewumun]

And?

[BeyondGoodAndEvil]

He's Scots/Irish. Perfect Vice President material.

[PuffAndStuff]

Off topic, but your comment made me think of something ...

I remember seeing a documentary once about the Appalachian inhabitants, much pertaining to the original settlers.

And yes, these settlers were originaly came from Northern Ireland (or 'Scottish/Irish') - or to say, in other words: they were protestants -- not to be mistaken for Catholics, and they're lineage can be traced back to Scottland before their ancestors had invaded Ireland and settled in North Ireland.

What I found really very interesting about this documentary is how after these people came to the 'new world' they settled in the Appalachian trails and mountains, so removed from other settlers/people. They lived, and many still do, like 'mountain people', and even developed their own unique dialect.

I found it interesting, as people usually seem to refer to 'rednecks' and 'hillbillies' as one in the same -- but, actually, after seeing this documentary I realized that 'hillbillies' -- these Appalachian people traced back to Scots/Irish lineage -- are not one in the same with the term 'redneck'.

[Raymondf]

Well I'm from the Appalachian region, and I'm not scotch-Irish. I'm half Cherokee, half British.

[Nofoolhere]

The educated and responsible voters across this tormented nation need to look past the bigot belt to elect the most competent, ethical, and compassionate candidate of the three. Only those qualifications can lead us out of this mess that too many of us voted to put in power, and then numbed and oblivious to the developing disaster in 2004, reelected the criminals.

Now not only must we overcome the bigots and fools, we must also overcome the corporate criminals whose stranglehold is intended to permanently deprive of us of our democracy, and place us under the heels of a fascistic corporate dictatorship.

SLEEPERS AWAKE!!!

[Independent007]

I remember a caller to a talk show tell Maddow, or was it Ed Shoultz, that people in WV are not racist.
But that she will not vote for Obama because of Wright, and because of what Michelle said.
But she would vote for Clinton. And she is not racist.
Maybe not. I will give her and other WV's who voted for Clinton the benefit of the doubt, but 22-30 percent of them who voted for Hillary said race was a factor. I don't know how to classify those voters.
Not only that, but the stuff this caller said sounded like Republican talking points. They just needed an excuse(some not all of WV people) not to vote for Obama. But needed no excuse for accepting Hillary's Bosnia lies, assassination stuff, etc. I find that disingenuous at best.

[AJTheReverb]

2 words about Appalacha,

Meghan Williams

[Freedomscap]

2 of the defendants got sentenced to 10 years in prison. That's a reasonable sentence given that many people get lighter sentences for murder.

[Sabreen60]

I disagree. The crime was brutal. It included torture as well as murder. I agree with the family of the victim. The sentence was much to light. I know if she had been by daughter I would not have been satisfied with the sentence.

[Raymondf]

And their both out now.

[Freedomscap]

Hey, what did you guys think of the movie: Recount, on HBO?

[joyf1]

Excellent but frustrating and sad.

[Independent007]

I saw Recount. It should give the Dems a blueprint as to the ruthlessness of some in the Repub party. It shows you the importance of stacking the Supreme Ct with people that have common sense.

[kburlz]

I didn't watch it because I figured it would depress me too much.

[GeoNorth]

It was well written, directed and acted. When it was done, I had to walk off my anger.

[williamg]

I had my fingers crossed, hoping that the ending would be different - it wasn't.

[AshevilleVoice]

Excellent and informative. I had always thought that the Democrat Party was responsible for not pursuing this aggressively enough. The documentary shows Gore himself in charge. I remember Lieberman's collusion with the Republicans- made me angry to see him again. What a weasel.

[Suthngal]

These aren't progressive states. Their biggest fear is to see any non-white in power or highly educated. Like many older whites, these people who reside in the Appalachians will NEVER vote for Obama nor would they vote for Clinton over McCain.

[1rewd1]

Wrong.

Obviously you have no knowledge of the people of West Virginia.

Hillary Clinton would win easily here, crossing all ages and genders.

[CeeDeeCee]

No. Suthngal is right.

I live in Kentucky. This is not a progressive state. It is also state were, by tradition, many voters register as democrats to vote in the primary but solidly support republicans, especially for president.

In addition, sexism runs a close second to racism. If Clinton were the democratic nominee, she would lose most the hardworking, white males in Eastern Kentucky to McCain. I have also heard more than one democratic woman say that they don’t want a black president but they don’t want a female president either.

Bill may have carried Kentucky but most voters wouldn't be fooled by the pants suit in November.

[Independent007]

No Rewd1,
YOU are wrong. WV people are not progressive especially since 22-30 percent who voted for HIllary said race was a factor Suthngal actually got it right. And YOU got it wrong.

OF course HIllary would win there, she is WHITE.

[spiderbucket]

The rednecks had their guy for 8 years and look where he got them - and us.

They don't count.

No more pandering to the right wings' useful idiot NASCAR fans. They either don't care about what is good for the country or they are too stupid to understand it. I know - I come from Beckley WVA and I can tell you that the combined intelligence of that state would not be enough to figure out how to get through a revolving door. Their main export is bigotry.

[Freedomscap]

No more appealing to the lowest common denominator, I say. Look what that got us, Bush, twice.

[AnotherTry]

Not standing up for equality IS appealing to the lowest common denominator and look where that got Kerry and will get Obama. Not in the white house.

http://www.youtube.com/user/msbuch72

[Raymondf]

I glad you no longer live in Beckley wouldn't want you as a neighbor.

[spiderbucket]

I glad you not me neighbor too, Tarzan.

[longislandlol]

EDUCATION_ EDUCATION_ EDUCATION__ he has to go to these appalachian working class and promise these appalachian states $$ for educatin their youn

[Freedomscap]

Hey, Senator Webb said it: these folks begrudge black folks for getting Affirmative Action.

[nanotubz]

Don't know why. There have been at least two major Appalachian directed programs over the past seventy years. First under FDR, which was ended by WWII, and a second starting under LBJ, which was ended under the Gipper.

[paganmist]

The crazy thing being that Affirmative Action covers every ethnicity, women of any race, the disabled and veterans.

I've yet to figure out just how Affirmative Action became the sole province of blacks. Many white women would be surprised to find out just how Affirmative Action has played a role in their lives as well.

[deb3mscapecod]

It is more than education. The Dixiecrats hated blacks long before affirmative action. That is an excuse.

[vshdst]

White women are the main recipients of Affirmative Action.

[NotMcCain]

He's also said that if they got together with blacks and shared their feelings about being left out of government help, and marginalized in society, they would find they have a lot in common.

[LuckyDay]

Mega-Dittos to this comment. Education leads to illumination. The one thing that Hillary has been selling that has been snookering some people is the idea that she will do so much for them. Obama on the other hand has always emphasized citizens working together to lift themselves up. It is an idea that is not conservative or liberal, but very practical. The media talking mouths "accuse" Obama of dressing too nice and working class people don't appreciate that, and he's not the kind of person they could sit down with in a bar and have a few beers.

[Independent007]

For the most part I agree with this, even though I read about some lawyers who were racist in their comments about Obama. But education may actually help with the ignoramuses of WV.

[Raymondf]

According to my stepgrandsons, who are from texas, West Virginia is a year ahead of what they are teaching in Texas.

[AvgPseudoIntellectual]

I want to throw in a thought about the ways in which information travels in Appalachia that are hard to see from the outside. My whole family hails from WV, going back generations. The ones still there are well-educated and lean somewhat progressive, but I know there are scores of people in the hills who have no internet or cable, and barely receive a good tv or radio signal. What they do get on the radio are often the (righty) Christian stations, and there is certainly no talk radio other than Rush, et al.

What I glean from this is that they may in fact be intelligent or even good-hearted people, but they have far less access to information than any of us on HuffPost. In other words, their evolution has slowed to a crawl, and while it may be unfortunate and sad that they don't see things from a broader perspective, it's not really their fault.

That segment of the population may not be ready for Obama until his second term has long ended, but attacking them is certainly not helpful. I'll debate with any Hillary supporter on the internet -- I know they have the same access to info that I do -- but people who are farther removed can only get so far without resources.

[JackND]

That may well be...but we certainly shouldn't cast aside a candidate who won the process just to placate them.

[AvgPseudoIntellectual]

Oh, no. I totally agree with you.

[susiesorority]

How many people like this could there really be? Seriously, in 2008?

[ThunderclapNewman]

More that you can imagine.

[AvgPseudoIntellectual]

Not many, I expect, but the lion's share of those that do exist may just be in WV and KY. You have to remember that WV has a pretty low population, but it is getting attention equal to every other state without regard to the sum of the participants.

The reason we don't see these people is precisely because they are so isolated. I tried to do some quick research -- couldn't find hard numbers right off, but it looks like WV is in the bottom five out of all states in terms of the digital divide... For what it's worth.

[Sabreen60]

Someone linked a video on Youtube the other day. A young white guy (a reporter I assume) was going around asking people what they thought about Obama. I am not sure if he was in KY or WV. Anyway, one woman (thirty something) said she believed Obama was lying about being a Christian. She didn't care what he said she believed he is a Muslim. Another older woman (late 60's early 70') actually looked like she was going to throw up when asked if she would ever vote for a black man. Now, I'm not saying these people reflect the views of the majority. We do have the comments from the exit polls so we know that many people admitted to being racist. We don't know how many didn't admit to it.

[Toonadude]

An entire American sub-culture that is not brain dead due to constant exposure to American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, Survivor and (name any sit com) ?? And such people are allowed to vote ?

Frightening !!

[Raymondf]

Yes , but I do have more sence than to watch that garbage.

[Raymondf]

I live in West Virginia and get great TV suddenlink telecable 120 channels 25 movie channels, about 60 music channels, don't know many that don't have access to the same, maybe 2% of the 1,125,000 population. Also have high speed internet. Pay 102.00 for all that.