Obama's Appalachia Problem Is Real, But Does It Matter

After months of pundits breaking the electorate into racial categories, the factor of geography is slowly being added to the mix. Obama's alleged problem with white voters is being modified; now the problem seems to be with working class voters in the Appalachian region.

Newsweek recently tried to quantify how race and geography could affect Obama in the fall. They note that while the Appalachian problem is more focused than simply a failure to connect with white working class voters, it is still a big problem:

Appalachia is a big place, encompassing 13 states: southwestern New York, western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, West Virginia, western Maryland, western Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, western North and South Carolina, and northern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. You cannot afford to lose all those states and still win in November. Other pollsters have suggested that the race factor is at least noticeable in a much wider swath of rural America, where 60 million voters reside. One recent Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of rural voters in battleground states showed that you are trailing McCain by 9 points (and that Clinton runs even with him). Dee Davis, president of a Kentucky-based advocacy group called the Center for Rural Strategies, points out in a recent article on Salon.com that in June 2004, John Kerry trailed George W. Bush by the same 9-point margin in the same rural battlegrounds.

Your mission is to not wind up like Kerry, who ended up losing the rural vote by 20 points. The "reality," writes Davis, "is that when Democratic candidates run competitively in rural America, they win national elections. And when they get creamed in rural America, they lose."

But Democrats to not need to achieve parity with John McCain among this voting bloc in order to win the election. And one analyst says Obama currently, "is clocking in where he needs to be":

Ruy Teixeira, a Democratic analyst of voting trends, wrote the book on the core issue in the endgame of the party's nomination fight. Its title is "America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters."...

Al Gore lost working-class white voters by 17 percentage points in 2000, even while winning the national popular vote. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts lost them by 23 points in 2004, while running within three points of President Bush over all. Mr. Teixeira suggests that Mr. Obama can win the presidency if he comes within 10 to 12 percentage points of Mr. McCain with these voters, as Democratic candidates for the House did in the 2006 midterm election.

Still, what can be done to shore up support? Greg Sargent has an idea:

All this renewed talk about Appalachia reminds me that Obama privately promised John Edwards that he'd undertake a poverty tour in the general election. Why not take that tour, with Edwards at his side, right through the heart of Appalachia?

And Will Thomas reported on Sen. Jim Webb's intense interest and knowledge about the troubles faced by the Scot-Irish community that makes up the Appalachian population at issue. Webb has been repeatedly mentioned as a vice president for Obama, and could help to balance out support.

Comments

[themodernleader]

Those people in Appalachia are good red blooded Americans who expect to be courted with the the same due respect afforded other Americans. And they will come out in droves for Obama once he meets with their informal leaders and interested citizens and defines himself, rather than being defined by his detractors and opponents. Appalachian welfare citizens, subsistent workers, disguised unemployed worders, miners, public employees, farmers, teachers and so on will vote for Obama once they are apprised of his character and program for renewing citizentry opportunity. Race will be an unfounded factor. This year even racially bigoted and prejudiced Americans will recognize and vote for a candidate who as unhyphenated American is as red blooded and patriotic and courageous as are Appalachians.

[hopeforchange]

Or in other words do poor white people matter. Yup-Obama will win-no doubt about it...yup....hmmm

[ErnestineBass]

Hallelujah, ModernLeader!

I was gittin' plumb tuckered out totin' all this water by meself! LOL!

[army193]

I feel we still must reach out they bleed red when there cut. Now if they will realize we bleed the same.

[marignymitch]

Correction! Sen Obama doesn't have an Appalachia problem. Appalachia has a racist problem.

[edwarvir]

I couldn't agree with you more.

[JackND]

Well, to be sure Obama does have an Appalachia priblem (synonomous perhaps with a racial problem). The thing is, it isn't his problem to fix.

[brooklinme]

I completely disagree. I support Senator Obama 100% but I believe he make a big mistake by not putting more effort into Kentucky and West Virginia. The people who he is having problems with in these states are naturals for his message and vision of the United States. He can win their support just as another candidate from Illinois did by the name of Abraham Lincoln. As an ethnic group these people historically did not perpetuate our national disgrace of slavery and did not benefit from it. If we allow the powerful Washington elite to continue fostering the devision of the poor and middle class in this country along racial and ethnic lines they will be able to maintain their power and poor and middle class Whites, Blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans will continue to die for "Our National Interest". Only when each of these groups will come together will we return POWER TO THE PEOPLE.

[vshdst]

CORRECT!

[lorla]

When looking at the news coverage in these rural areas, it is obvious that they should vote for a democrat rather than a republican. How have they ever advanced under a republican administration?
This demographic is racist, and they are being pimped by Clinton and the repubs.
There is also a big problem in poor urban areas that do not participate in politics, because no matter who is in the WH, their situation does not really change.
The difference between the two groups is that there are many volunteers covering the urban areas, helping to register new voters, and willing to do what it takes to get them to the polls in Nov.
The racists will never change their view, but the urban voters can be successfully encouraged to engage in the process.
Count on it.

[ErnestineBass]

Darlin', you can engage both the urban poor and the rural poor in the political process all you want, but it won't amount to a hill of beans if the politicians they elect to REPRESENT THEM turn around and ignore them and their needs once they finish taking the Oath of Office.

Rent "Bulworth" and watch it. One of the most brilliant political movies ever made.

[paganmist]

It's up to the politicians that represent them to create the methods for them to better themselves.

It's up to THEM to utilize those methods.

People love to tell blacks to "get over it", and I (being black) agree to a certain extent. Opportunities are available to anyone who wants to reach out for it, be they in KY or NY.

Hell, I have moved to a new state before when opportunities seemed scarce.

When you really want to achieve things in life, you will make the effort to do it. Blaming it on anyone else is a cop-out.

[lorla]

The results that I am seeing during this campaign is that Obama supporters are gathering and taking on weekend projects, not only to register voters, but to volunteer to improve living conditions for homes with people with disabilities, and choosing to meet in places planning for the campaign, backing it up with donations that go directly to the places that house the meetings.
It is not about what D.C. is going to do to directly help us, it is about putting someone in office that inspires us to participate in improving our communities.
You can watch any movie you want, but I am seeing a difference in my community already, just because like-minded people have been introduced to each other because of Obama s campaign.

[Lagniappe]

Lorla,The War on Poverty initiaten in the '60's was a direct result of his visit to Appalachain Kentuvky.That was over 40 years ago. The black population is less than 10% in either W.Va. or Kentucky,If this is representative of Hilllary's base,she can have them.Go Obama(I/m white.)

[Lagniappe]

Part of my post disappeare­d-----Lynd­on Johnson and the Kennedys initiated the War On Poverty to address these issues of grinding poverty in Appalachia 40 years ago. How does one explain other mostly white rural folk who DO progress ,despite odds? Rural blacks? Anyone-yet generations of these Appalachains seem congenitally incapable or unmotivated.

[happyblackman]

Now that he isn't a congressman, touting a failed republican agenda, I really like Joe Scarborough on his morning show. He said something interesting a few weeks back. He was discussing how people with low incomes vote for republicans, and he admitted that there was no way that the Bush tax cut was going to benefit anyone who considered themselves poor to mid - middle class. He said it would benefit them to vote for democrats, because they would have their needs met.

I do not think Obama's fate is going to rest with some racist, unemployed coal miner. He is not going to get their votes no mattere what. He has to try though, but it shouldn't be his focus going into November. I think he has to do more to connect with elderly voters of all races, cause there are a lot of elderly blacks who believe he's muslim, also. He needs to quash that quickly.

[KillTheMessenger]

Appalachia's Obama problem is real. But it does not matter. Neither today nor in the future.

[Lagniappe]

I find it interesting that the term "white voters' suddenly became "Hillary's base" when she stared campaigning in Appalachia. I dont recall she or Bill referring to that demographic when campaigning elsewhere-suddenly all the black,Hispanic and Asian vote she already got elsewhere were chopped liver?Who's playing the race card there?

[paganmist]

Hillary and Bill have focused since Pennsylvania on how they have the "blue collar white vote". They've been driving it home since then. Hillary went out and shot whiskey with some blue collar whites. She passed out buttons and told blue collar whites that Obama is an elitist.

And then kicker is when she outright said that "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans" are her "winning coalition".

I've never heard Obama say ANYTHING like that. He's never boasted about having the support of ANY demographic over another, actually - that's all been media hype and pundits.

You can bet that if he'd ever said that he had the support of "working, hard-working Americans, African-Americans" he'd be out of the race this very instant.

[Lagniappe]

I know that's right! If he would have started a Black and Blue rhetoric,(black , blue collared) as opposed to red(neck),­white(vote­r) andblue(collar) rhetoric --you think the Clinton's would n't have cried RACISM?

[Daisy1111]

If Colin Powell was running as GOP candidate Appalchia would turn colorblind.

Ask yourself why.

Military.

Pro-America.

Warrior.

Hero.

Centrist. I repeat Centrist.

Look around, I saw some polls way back when, Powell had like a 95% approval rating.

Obama supporters have to stop denying that it's Obama's liberal POV that hurts him with conservative voters possibly more than his racial background.

[ErnestineBass]

Yeah, waaaaaay back BEFORE he sat before the United Nations and LIED about Saddam's WMDs.

You find his current popularity rating, then get back to us, OK?

[macbabe]

he reporting on the info he was given!!!

[RobertaInCT]

I agree, his star has fallen....­..........­..

[Daisy1111]

That's right. Attack Colin Powell -- you do know he's an Obama advisor don't you?

You have noticed he has not supported any GOP candidate.

Harris poll has Colin at a 65% approval rating nationwide. (which is higher than Obama's at the moment).

goliath.ec­next.com/c­oms2/summa­ry_0199-71­0577_ITM - 33k -

[Daisy1111]

Colin Powell- 65% approval rating. Harris Poll.

Colin Powell is an Obama advisor.

I posted this earlier but for some reason it got scrubbed.

Colin Powell defended Obama on Rev. Wright.

[PAposter]

I personally think the misconception of his "elitist" views and gun issues, the Muslim factor, and his race hurt Obama with the Appalachia. I also think Colin Powell would have been hurt in the area as well, but it would not have mattered nationally.

[happyblackman]

I seem to remember forces lining up against Powell. Notably the religious right because of his abortion stance, and radical right wingers who pointed out his support of affirmative action. The repubs killed their best candidate for mass appeal. Powell had no chance of winning the repub nomination then, and I think he has been out of it too long to be considered in the future.

As for Obama and his Appalachian problem, it is something that will never go away. He could pump all kinds of money and programs to revitalize the poorest areas, and some would still not vote for him. There are just people who love to be racist. On the flip side, for decades, poor, urban blacks have voted for scores of white candidates. Partly because they had no choice, but also because the candidate paid a little attention to them.

[luvthelaw]

Just once, would you explain why you think he's so liberal? I am liberal, he's a centrist.

[pupbayer]

"Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., was the most liberal senator in 2007, according to National Journal's 27th annual vote ratings. The insurgent presidential candidate shifted further to the left last year in the run-up to the primaries, after ranking as the 16th- and 10th-most-liberal during his first two years in the Senate."

http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/

That's why she says he's so liberal. Because he is the MOST liberal in the senate.

[gaebolgaes]

Wrong my friend. Obama does not have an Appalachia problem, Appalachia has a race problem in the same way Hitler and the Nazis had a jewish problem.Blacks have never done anything to white Virginians and Ohioans except stop being slaves and demanding their civil rights.These people call them selves scotch-irish, born agains, christian evangelicals, blue collar whites and a lot of other things.In the 50s and 60 s, they called themselves the Klu Klux Klan, and they made no bones about it.Blacks have had the choice of either a white republican, whig, Dixiecrat, Tory or democrat to vote for since 1776.( which never mattered anyway since we were only allowed to vote 40 years ago) No white man ever had to make special arrangements with blacks to run for president--ever.Now Barack Obama is being asked to kiss every behind in Appalachia in order to get their vote, that they have seldom given to even a white democrat since civil rights were given to blacks.No one would ever expect a jewish candidate to get the skinhead vote...and no one should expect Obama to get the racist vote either.

[PAposter]

I can't wait until Senator Obama rewrites the map, so we can stop using one from over a decade ago.

[Daisy1111]

You mean the map that lost Kerry the election?

That map?

[PAposter]

The obsolete map, that one. It's a new era, get up to speed.

[pupbayer]

How many states will it have on it and will they be anywhere near where they're supposed to be?

[Nitsua]

I find it interesting that people pull the race card when Apalachia does not vote for BHO, but no one questions the racial motives when 90% of blacks vote for BHO. How is that any less racist?

[PAposter]

Tired of answering that question. So, do some research to find out how Blacks vote historically, and how often they have voted for a Black Presidential candidate. Ah-Kay!

[Aywaller]

Because African American's have a history of supporting white candidates for president. White Americans do not have a history of supporting Black candidates for president. Black people are not voting for Barack Obama because they are racist. They are voting for Obama because he is the best candidate. Simple.

[Susanfrom29]

Perhaps if our country wasn't so steeped in a racist past, there might have been more than one serious candidate for president in over two hundred years. Perhaps then they would have had choices.

BTW, it is really pathetic when the ruling class claim racism against a minority for voting in their own self interest.

[lolatheninja]

Probably because blacks have voted for tons of people of all races over the years but Appalachians only vote for white people which is racially suspect.

[Lagniappe]

And where and what has the racist bigotry gotten their lives or their states but at the very bottom rung nationwide in income,edu­cation,qua­lity of life ? The price of ignorance and intolerance is very high,indee­d.Evidentl­y,they feel inclined to continue paying the price. Inbreeds.

[storeyy]

When women vote for a woman, a Catholic votes for a Catholic, a black person for a black candidate – this is IDENTITY VOTING.

When a guy will not vote for a woman candidate or a white person will not vote for a black candidate – this is BIGOTRY or RACISM.

When we have better schools, there will be less of this type of ignorance.

- anonymous

[luvthelaw]

Thank you for this. I hope people will read this and get the idea.

[hussein]

So you are saying everyone that has ever voted against a black candidate is racist? There are lots of reasons beyond race why people will not vote for Obama.

[Taaj]

No it does not matter.

[ErnestineBass]

Aren't they Americans, too?

Don't they deserve representation?

What is WRONG with you people? Good grief...

Here we go again, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

[lizr]

They will have representation in Obama. He will do a serious poverty tour and he will make thier lives better.

Now if they insist that the politician that does that for them be White.. well then they might have a problem.

They will have to learn and grow up and past their conditioning, like everyone else.

It's time for our country to move past its limitations.

[RobertaInCT]

When will we realize it about all of us, not a select few. Obama should make every effort to reach them...............

[tressie22]

who is denying these voters representation? they have the same tv stations and internet the rest of the world has. they are choosing another candidate - for whatever reasons - and that does not equate to lack of representation. lack of representation is what the millions of DC voters have or what those who are turned away at polling polls experience. Word choice check, please.

[paganmist]

"Here we go again, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory."

I'd like to call a moratorium on this statement. It wasn't clever the first time someone said it, and nothing has changed since then.

[Susanfrom29]

I like the thought of adding Webb to the ticket as VP, he could relate to Appalachian voters.

On the other hand, most of these voters have gone Republican in the past and it may be time for the Democratic Party to finally say goodbye to those who feel that a Muslim is a bad thing, that a black man would somehow damage our country and that the most important issues are gun control, prayer in school, abortion and gay marriage.

How about looking for support from the millions out there that are not currently claimed, like so many of my Republican friends who are totally disgusted by what havoc Bush has wrought?

For one, I'm tired of the tail wagging the dog.

[Daisy1111]

Susan:

Your republican friends are pro-choice? Anti-gun? Against prayer in school?

If they are your republican friends have been working against their own interests.

Your Republican friends have ANY rational reason why they voted for Bush twice?

Yeah - good luck convincing them to vote for Obama.

[lizr]

True Republicans are all about the money. Theirs. Keeping it.

Anybody knows that. But they can see that Bush has wrecked the country and they want someone smart in charge now. They might even be able to handle parting with some of their money.

Get it?

[lizr]

Totally agree. Independents and Smart Reps who still have some decency will go for Obama. And he will go after them in the general. He will smear McCain with the Truth. It will be messy.

[Tommygun264]

By all means, let's pander to the bigot vote! Sorry, but the Republicans have that all sewn up.

[LMorland]

To return to Senator Jim Webb, I've been saying for a week now that I think he's the best choice for Barack's VP, for a variety of reasons, but first and foremost because he's shares the Appalachian genetic and cultural background that is Obama's big weak point. As someone noted above, he's published a book (one of several he's written) about them. Chek out this interview on last week's Fresh Air: http://www.mediafly.com/Podcasts/Episodes/NPR_05202008_Fresh_Air_1

Oh, and of course you all know that he served as Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan (he was the youngest such Secretary ever). In my mind, Obama and Webb would be unbeatable!

Here's a great article about Webb, including a video clip (you can actually see his smile at the end, which I've not seen often -- his Scotch-Irish roots really show in his smile):
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/21/jim-webb-speaks-out-on-ra_n_102915.html

[Raymondf]

Lets put it this way, he has no chance, so he won't have to campaign hard, because it won't help.

[karela]

The tour is a great idea. Obama should take that trip with Edwards, Webb, Hillary, Bill and anybody else who can shore up the confidence. Hillary and Bill both pledged to campaign hard for the winner and Appalachia is a good place to start and tie it all in with the poverty tour. As both Obama and Webb have acknowledged, the poor people in Appalachia feel that they have been over looked. So make it an extravaganza of a tour. Bring everybody and add people in each state i.e. Casey and Rendell in PA and Rockefeller in West Virginia etc. The poverty tour to beat all poverty tours! I can see it.

[lizr]

GREAT IDEA!!