Obama's Appalachia Problem Is Real, But Does It Matter

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The Huffington Post
First Posted: 05-26-08 11:59 AM   |   Updated: 06- 3-08 05:12 AM

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Appalachia

After months of pundits breaking the electorate into racial categories, the factor of geography is slowly being added to the mix. Obama's alleged problem with white voters is being modified; now the problem seems to be with working class voters in the Appalachian region.

Newsweek recently tried to quantify how race and geography could affect Obama in the fall. They note that while the Appalachian problem is more focused than simply a failure to connect with white working class voters, it is still a big problem:

Appalachia is a big place, encompassing 13 states: southwestern New York, western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, West Virginia, western Maryland, western Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, western North and South Carolina, and northern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. You cannot afford to lose all those states and still win in November. Other pollsters have suggested that the race factor is at least noticeable in a much wider swath of rural America, where 60 million voters reside. One recent Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of rural voters in battleground states showed that you are trailing McCain by 9 points (and that Clinton runs even with him). Dee Davis, president of a Kentucky-based advocacy group called the Center for Rural Strategies, points out in a recent article on Salon.com that in June 2004, John Kerry trailed George W. Bush by the same 9-point margin in the same rural battlegrounds.


Your mission is to not wind up like Kerry, who ended up losing the rural vote by 20 points. The "reality," writes Davis, "is that when Democratic candidates run competitively in rural America, they win national elections. And when they get creamed in rural America, they lose."

But Democrats to not need to achieve parity with John McCain among this voting bloc in order to win the election. And one analyst says Obama currently, "is clocking in where he needs to be":

Ruy Teixeira, a Democratic analyst of voting trends, wrote the book on the core issue in the endgame of the party's nomination fight. Its title is "America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters."...


Al Gore lost working-class white voters by 17 percentage points in 2000, even while winning the national popular vote. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts lost them by 23 points in 2004, while running within three points of President Bush over all. Mr. Teixeira suggests that Mr. Obama can win the presidency if he comes within 10 to 12 percentage points of Mr. McCain with these voters, as Democratic candidates for the House did in the 2006 midterm election.

Still, what can be done to shore up support? Greg Sargent has an idea:

All this renewed talk about Appalachia reminds me that Obama privately promised John Edwards that he'd undertake a poverty tour in the general election. Why not take that tour, with Edwards at his side, right through the heart of Appalachia?

And Will Thomas reported on Sen. Jim Webb's intense interest and knowledge about the troubles faced by the Scot-Irish community that makes up the Appalachian population at issue. Webb has been repeatedly mentioned as a vice president for Obama, and could help to balance out support.

After months of pundits breaking the electorate into racial categories, the factor of geography is slowly being added to the mix. Obama's alleged problem with white voters is being modified; now the ...
After months of pundits breaking the electorate into racial categories, the factor of geography is slowly being added to the mix. Obama's alleged problem with white voters is being modified; now the ...
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- mrmemory I'm a Fan of mrmemory 2 fans permalink

A good start to connecting with this group of voters would be to not wear a dress shirt and tie while going bowling. He comes off looking too much like the professorial figure that he is, and if he doesn't fix this he's going to suffer. He needs to learn to get his hands dirty.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:12 PM on 05/26/2008
- Syco I'm a Fan of Syco 4 fans permalink
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then we would hear comments about how unprofessional he is

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:42 PM on 05/26/2008
- lmrgreen I'm a Fan of lmrgreen 3 fans permalink
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If I remember right, Obama the bowling trip was a spur of the moment thing. If you check out more recent appearances, he is seen more and more in shirt sleeves (Oregon - 75,000 - still gives me goosebumps).

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:09 PM on 05/26/2008
- lorla I'm a Fan of lorla 10 fans permalink

He has won this primary because his approach has been consistent. Why change what works?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:16 PM on 05/26/2008

please explain to me why and how being percieved as professional would be negative in a man who would be president of the united states? i'll wait.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:43 PM on 05/26/2008
- kay I'm a Fan of kay 172 fans permalink

I read some of the comments.

Did anyone read the article? Gore lost this group 17 points. He didn't lose them on "elitism" he lost them on guns.

Comparing Obama to Bill Clinton is ancient history in terms of politics. It's simply no longer relevant. It was too long ago.

Obama can lose by between 12 and 17 points in Appalachia and still win the Presidency.

Democrats lost this group by 12 in the '06 elections and still took Congress.

I think it's a tempest in a tea pot. Bill Clinton's map is 12 years old.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:11 PM on 05/26/2008
- Raymondf I'm a Fan of Raymondf 4 fans permalink

But can he win with a 30 to40 point lose.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:22 PM on 05/26/2008
- duze I'm a Fan of duze 23 fans permalink

Obama does not have a problem in that part of the country. Obama has a problem convincing people that Hillary brainwashed with her "elitist" "bitter" remarks that they don't want to give Obama a chance.
His problem is never with the people, its with the person who brainwashed them against him. She played the game that she and she only related to them. She identified with them in every way.
Sure she does, she rode her motorcade right down the middle of their roads. Can't wait to hear their reactions when they visit their long lost community leader Hillary in Chappagua, N.Y. Talk about identifying with one another. Now that's a story

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:02 PM on 05/26/2008
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This is so terribly sad and ironic since Obama is half white working class himself and was reared solely by that side of his family! Do your homework--he has shown nothing but deep love and respect for them. Purely because he has a little extra melanin in his epidermis from his father's side, people just cant see that side of him. But by his works shall they know him. Fresh out of Harvard Law he could have become a big corporate lawyer making many millions of dollars, but he decided to become a community organizer and activist to help struggling inner city dwellers and laid-off steel workers in Chicago. I am looking forward to the day he and Edwards go to the coal mines of West Virginia and the Appalachias on a fact finding mission--don some mining headlamps and have the miners take them on a tour of a few mines so they can look into the deplorable safety conditions, stagnant wages and etc that are rampant in that industry. The working poor in the South have very legitimate concerns & struggles and will not be denied. Obama, (and Edwards!) from his impoverished background is just the one to properly address these issues and his record of service up to this point strongly indicates he will do just that!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:54 PM on 05/26/2008
- kay I'm a Fan of kay 172 fans permalink

It's over-hyped. Obama gets every slice and dice "concern" study. It's apparently the main job of political pundits to use Bill Clinton's ancient map to make invalid predictions.

You can't start with a 12 year old map. That's crazy.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:18 PM on 05/26/2008
- Daisy1111 I'm a Fan of Daisy1111 8 fans permalink

It's a 4-year old map.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:55 PM on 05/26/2008

Actually, Sen. Obama did his community organizing after he graduated from Columbia. After Harvard Law, he went back to Chicago to work in a small firm that did a lot of civil rights work. But he for sure could have written his own ticket just about anywhere after Harvard Law.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:34 PM on 05/26/2008
- MarciL I'm a Fan of MarciL 3 fans permalink

"Fresh out of Harvard Law he could have become a big corporate lawyer making many millions of dollars, but he decided to become a community organizer and activist to help struggling inner city dwellers and laid-off steel workers in Chicago."

Exactly! And that's why I decided in 2002 to vote for him when he ran for President. I knew then that he would make a great President and everything I've heard him say since then has just cemented that belief.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:44 PM on 05/26/2008
- apoyo I'm a Fan of apoyo 40 fans permalink

No it doesn't matter. The young people will more than make up for that. It's their future.

Hope and Peace 08

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:46 PM on 05/26/2008
- Daisy1111 I'm a Fan of Daisy1111 8 fans permalink

Young people?

Are they all in one state or spread all over the country.

College kids are registered to vote in Appalachia?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:52 PM on 05/26/2008
- qdog112 I'm a Fan of qdog112 68 fans permalink
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If you believe the polls - young educated people vote Obama in huge numbers.

Colleges are scarce in Appalachia, but where they exist, Barack does OK

Where isolation is the order of the day - he does not.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:58 PM on 05/26/2008
- PAposter I'm a Fan of PAposter 119 fans permalink
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.....yeah, but they don't vote like their parents, thank God. And many of them attend college out-of-state, and most do not return to the area to live. If these parents want their children to stay in the area, and if they want to improve their conditions, there has to be a compromise.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:45 PM on 05/26/2008
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Senator Obama should at least pay a visit to the hollers. As President, he does represent all Americans, not just those cherry picked liked the Bush administration caters to. But, his campaign can and most likely will pull out a win without them. The 50 state voter registration drive will boost voter registration and general election turn out. Neither Crazy Clinton nor John McCain have the financial nor ground forces to compete in that arena. Those votes will be Senator Obamas come November.

The Poblano Model
paints a very good analysis of how he can win. Without or without the neanderthals in the Appalachian hollers.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:40 PM on 05/26/2008

The Poblano Model is based on wishful thinking! See link:

http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/features/obama-over-the-top

The model is deeply flawed because it starts with the wrong assumption that ALL the 2004 Kerry voters would vote for Obama. Exit polls reveal that, if Obama is the nominee, 28% to 55% of Hillary voters would either abstain or vote McCain. On average that represents about 20% of Dem voters.

I downloaded Poblano's spreadsheet and tried a "what-if" scenario assuming the following:
- half of those voters would "come home" and vote Democratic.
- one quarter would abstain.
- one quarter would vote McCain.

The result is that the election is turned around with McCain easily winning with 294 Electoral Votes! You can download Poblano's Excel file and experiment with it.

For more realistic projections of the Electoral-Vote map based on averaging of recent, reputable-source polls see links below:

For Clinton vs. McCain:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May26.html

For Obama vs. McCain:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May26.html

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:43 PM on 05/26/2008
- lmrgreen I'm a Fan of lmrgreen 3 fans permalink
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Hillary voters will not abstain or vote for McCain once they get over the grief they are going through now because she will not be the nominee. Once they realize that abstaining or voting for McCain means that the Supreme Court will be stacked against ROE V WADE - they'll come back in droves. Right now, by saying they won't vote for Obama no matter what is a means to blackmail the SD's in her favor. No one really believes that women in their fifties and sixties that fought hard (like me) for pro-choice issues all these years will allow McCain to take away everything we've worked for. Not to mention, many are mothers with sons in Iraq. Are we really saying those women who now say they support Hillary in part because she promises to get us out of Iraq, will vote for McCain who wants to keep us there forever?

So, yes, I believe Obama will retain Kerry's votes.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:17 PM on 05/26/2008
- luvthelaw I'm a Fan of luvthelaw 4 fans permalink

Current projections are as meaningless as the projections a year ago that had Hillary winning it all by Super Tuesday - the inevitable candidate.

You make the assumption that all the women who voted for Hillary still support her but I know many who changed their minds after seeing how she ran her campaign. I was one of them. There is a hardcore that won't go for Obama but when gas is $6 and the east is trying to figure out how to pay for heating oil, the war drags on and the dollar is devalued even further, that hardcore will dwindle in size that can be overcome with disgruntled repubs and independents.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:59 PM on 05/26/2008
- starrianna I'm a Fan of starrianna 50 fans permalink
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DUH!

The entire Obama campaign is on crack.

Honeys, it's not an Appalachia problem...­it's an
AMERICA
problem.

There are plenty of mildly racist places in this country.

1) The suburbs of Orange County, California, where MANY people talk about how if McCain gets his act together, they would consider voting for him. Translation: They will NOT vote for Obama, they just don't feel comfortable. They are not liberal enough.

That's Obama's problem: people are not liberal enough, and they talk to their friends who are not liberal enough.

Obama's other problem: he is too much of an elitist, a liberal who has had too many scholarships, too many $2 million houses, too many grants, too many handouts, too many lofty ideas, too many wealthy liberal friends, to identify with mainstream Americans who don't have these advantages. Obama is the face of the new elite who is taking away opportunities from these Americans, and they will retaliate in the voting booth.

I know it sounds crazy, but it's the same beer-drinking philosophy that got GW Bush elected. Twice.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:38 PM on 05/26/2008

You are assuming Americans, as a group, are too stupid to distinguish between $2 million Obama made from writing two books, and the $109 million his wife inherited from her beer distributor father, and which McCain dumped his first wife for (married to Cindy six weeks after divorcing his disabled 1st wife), so that he could do a younger woman AND marry into a huge fortune.

Sorry dude. Maybe the low info voters in the back hills won't hear the truth, but the rest of us know what it is. I wish the appalacianites would wake up, but numerically, it really won't matter.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:47 PM on 05/26/2008

If marrying an ugly, rich Woman was a disqualifier for the Presidency, LBJ would never have made it and important legislation would never been passed.
This, along with "electing the First Black President", "electing the "first Woman President" or "electing the oldest President" are not things I consider. Why do you?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:17 PM on 05/26/2008
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And I don't want our next President to be chosen by these low info voters.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:34 PM on 05/26/2008
- pupbayer I'm a Fan of pupbayer 23 fans permalink

I don't know that it is people are not liberal enough. I honestly think Obama has not made his case on why he is the best person for the job. He spends so much backtracking and correcting what he said or what he meant and then answering/attacking Clinton and McCain, he really hasn't communicated what his message is. "Change," is not a message. What change? How will he accomplish this change? This is what I've heard from so many in southern Ohio. They just don't know what he wants to do or how he wants to do it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:50 PM on 05/26/2008
- PAposter I'm a Fan of PAposter 119 fans permalink
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Wow pub, are you serious? Then southern Ohioans are refusing to hear. I'm so sick of your same old argument on why you won't vote for Obama, just be honest with yourself.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:49 PM on 05/26/2008
- karela I'm a Fan of karela 85 fans permalink

Hey So Cal, latest polls show Obama beating McCain handily in California. There may be mild racism still there, but it's outnumbered and outdated. I'm a transplanted California girl and I'm proud to hear it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:16 PM on 05/26/2008

What intrigues me about this is, how come this doesn't also apply to the Clintons - multi, multimillionaires who spend their entire time in the elitist milieu you could imagine?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:48 PM on 05/26/2008

Probably the same people who cheered Bill Cosby's statements about the need for blacks to take responsibility for their children; failing to realize that Barack Obama's life story is of a man who literally did pull himself up by his own bootstraps.

How many of the truly "elite" class have to rely on scholarships and student loans to get an eduction?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:49 PM on 05/26/2008
- Daisy1111 I'm a Fan of Daisy1111 8 fans permalink

Let me tell you something, Appalachia is more concerned with their WALLET than they are about racial divides.

These people are the ones who suffer most with high gas prices -- they don;t have mass transit.

Obama needs to REMIND them how the Bush tax breaks hurt them and allowed Bush's buddies to funnel money into offshore accounts. .

He needs to REMIND them their kids were sent to Iraq along with Black and Hispanic kids.

He needs to REMIND them that Bush economics were never intended to help people who do NOT OWN stocks and DO NOT trade on Wall Street.

Obama has to stop talking about his days in the south side of Chicago and REMIND them he grew up in small town America.

If Obama continues to sound like John Kerry he will have a huge problem in November.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:30 PM on 05/26/2008
- pupbayer I'm a Fan of pupbayer 23 fans permalink

He also needs to tell them exactly how he is going to help them. These people may not be educated but many are not stupid and they are not easily swayed by a lot of rhetoric and big cheering crowds. They're meat and potatoes not a lot of fancy looking and sounding dishes. I taught in this area for 30 years. They listen and they think. He has to tell them what he wants to do and how he will do it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:54 PM on 05/26/2008
- NorVaGal I'm a Fan of NorVaGal 13 fans permalink

These are great points, pupbayer. I am sincerely hoping that you are right about most people of Appalachia being willing to listen, think, and fairly compare the pros and cons of each candidate's proposed policies. I am honestly mystified at how millions of voters have voted against their and their families' own best interests in past elections. It may be the same in November, but I hope for all of our sakes that this year will be different.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:39 PM on 05/26/2008
- StillIRise I'm a Fan of StillIRise 564 fans permalink
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Daisy, I agree that Senator Obama has to KEEP reminding them of these things, but these are issues he HAS BEEN talking about. I understand what you're saying, but you have to also acknowledge that for many in this demographic, what he says is less important to them than the color of his skin.

I realize that this is a huge challenge for Senator Obama to try to overcome, but it is not his challenge alone. The media also seems to put the burden of responsibility on him, as if it's his fault or his weakness that these voters hold these attitudes toward blacks. But the weakness lies within the community itself, and therein within the nation, and to suggest that it is Senator Obama's responsibility to turn around generations of entrenched racial fear and racial hatred, that time itself has been unable to turn around, is expecting a bit much. Shifting responsibility onto Senator Obama does not make the problem within the community go away, it simply condones it; and it will never go away until we are willing to honestly talk about it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:56 PM on 05/26/2008
- Daisy1111 I'm a Fan of Daisy1111 8 fans permalink

Still Rise--

He can't skip showing up in states like Kentucky and West Virginia.

To them it seems he only wants to be photographed in front of big crowds.

You under-estimate how much he can impact them -- even if it's only a small percentage, then they will spread the word.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:16 PM on 05/26/2008
- realpolitic I'm a Fan of realpolitic 149 fans permalink

Senator Obama does not sound like John Kerry at all. Kerry was stiff and often defensive. Obama has a great sense of humor. He is very witty and a great speaker. Kerry was unfortunately a rather lame speaker. Obama reaches people and excites them He must tailor a message to that segment of the community in Appalachia, but perhaps they have not come far enough to hear his message. We will see in November. Until then, he is educating many voters on basic issues and running an outstanding campaign.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:49 PM on 05/26/2008
- the964kid I'm a Fan of the964kid 61 fans permalink
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First of all its only a problem in about a 3rd of this region. Obama wins or is extremely competitive (according to recent polls) in most of these states. He has a problem in Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, the southern part of Ohio and the western part of PA. I think his problem is less significant then Kerry's or Gore's since Obama is currently winning other traditional red states like Iowa, Colorado, even Kansas. Obama always does better when he has time for a state to get to know him. Obama's central theme is a lot more populist then Kerry's or Gore's and if these voters actually examine the issues (maybe thats asking too much!) they'll see that Obama clearly represents their own economic issues much more then John McCain.

That all being said, I can say that the level of ignorance in parts of this region is exceptional. Many of these voters simply are not willing to open themselves up to a more modern mentality. Im surprised by the number of voters in this region that will admit to pollsters that they won't vote for a black man period (in WV and KY that number was around 20%, or 1 in 5 voters). I think Obama should make an effort to allow all voters get to know him BUT he shouldnt spend too much time or money in places where the voters are hopelessly living in the past.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:11 PM on 05/26/2008
- pupbayer I'm a Fan of pupbayer 23 fans permalink

If he shows people he cares about them, ALL of them, and that he can do something to improve their lives. They'll listen. Maybe I just have more faith in my fellow human beings than he has.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:35 PM on 05/26/2008
- Daisy1111 I'm a Fan of Daisy1111 8 fans permalink

I agree pup - with all your posts.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:17 PM on 05/26/2008
- realpolitic I'm a Fan of realpolitic 149 fans permalink

To suggest Obama does not have much faith in his fellow human beings is very disingenuous. He made a sategic decision not to campaign in a few states in the primary. All candidates make a decision where to invest their resources. Obama will be back to these states before the general election. He will talk of raising the minimum wage and ending the war in Iraq. Too suggest he does not care about the people in that region is very unfair. He has worked his entire live to better the lives of people from similar circumstances as the people who live there.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:01 PM on 05/26/2008
- StillIRise I'm a Fan of StillIRise 564 fans permalink
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I think I just read a post from one of these voters, or I may be doing this community a disservice by suggesting this poster is one of them ... but she charged Senator Obama with playing the race card because he wrote his book, "Dreams From My Father," and wrote about his white mother and grandparents, thereby misleading the American people into thinking that he's not black! She suggested that the only reason [white people] are voting for him is because they think he's white! And this, to her, was evidence of the race card he played in this primary!!!

Our country is in dire need of education and honest dialogue. Since these voters are supporting Senator Clinton, I had hoped she would take this opportunity to begin this conversation with them, but instead she simply exploited their ignorance. I agree with you ... I think Senator Obama should make an effort to introduce himself to these voters and to give them a chance to know him beyond the color of his skin. But I don't think any of us should expect miracles!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:09 PM on 05/26/2008
- Daisy1111 I'm a Fan of Daisy1111 8 fans permalink

Still:

If someone said this about Obama then they are sincerely suffering twisted logic.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:00 PM on 05/26/2008
- lmrgreen I'm a Fan of lmrgreen 3 fans permalink
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Where was the post - that's amazing that someone could still think that!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:45 PM on 05/26/2008
- realpolitic I'm a Fan of realpolitic 149 fans permalink

I want to read "Dreams From My Father." It was written before Obama was famous and strikes a very personal tone. It is supposed to be an exceptionally written book.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:55 PM on 05/26/2008
- LeonBNJ I'm a Fan of LeonBNJ 22 fans permalink

The problem with the 'Appalachia' regional voters is that they have seen both government policies and economic changes hurt them, especially the huge losses in decent paying employment. Coal production has shifted to the Western USA (Utah, WY) as is cheaper to process, easier to extract, less unions, less enviromental hassles and easier to move to wanted markets. NAFTA and 'Free Trade' policies as well as demands from Wal-Mart and other giant retailers had meant losses of jobs in furniture making, cloth and garment making as well as some areas of manufacuting shifted to overseas or Mexico due to lower labor costs, less enviromental regulations. Most can't afford or want to move, many have siginficant health problems, local government programs for health and welfare are weak, a growing senior population with more needs and far too many with no or little pensions. Further many may feel that Obama if President will give more of the 'hard paid taxes' to Blacks, urban areas rather than cycle it all back to them.
Obama must realize that all working class Americans, white, black, hispanic and females - will not be forgotten in his administration; that he will change polices so they can have a decent jobs and income, end the flow of jobs outside ot America and direct government funds to them in equitable ways.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:58 PM on 05/26/2008
- Daisy1111 I'm a Fan of Daisy1111 8 fans permalink

Leon:

Excellent points.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:07 PM on 05/26/2008
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AMEN! You have nailed the entire issue! You've just moved to the top of my list for Vice Presidential pick!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:00 PM on 05/26/2008
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And if they vote for Republicans again, then they will be getting what they deserve. I never can understand why so many of these people vote against their own financial self interest year after year. They will vote for god, guns and gays while ignoring their pocketbook.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:35 PM on 05/26/2008
- Lagniappe I'm a Fan of Lagniappe 13 fans permalink

Prejudice takes priority over pocketbook. Their prejudice is an intrinsic part of their traditions­.Their traditions are closely held and guarded. Maybe some left over angst from the Civil War and Lincoln freeing the slaves-or so I've read.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:45 PM on 05/26/2008
- abt I'm a Fan of abt 4 fans permalink

The first number is the percent of white voters who said race was important; the second number is Obama’s margin of victory or defeat:
Oregon: 7% -- Obama +16
North Carolina: 8% -- Obama +14
Indiana: 10% -- Obama -2
Kentucky: 18% -- Obama -35
West Virginia: 21% -- Obama -41
The more white voters who think the candidate’s race matters, the better Clinton does.
But they're red states anyway, and won't matter to Obama in the fall:
In 2000, George Bush won West Virginia 52 to 46 percent. Four years later, he’d increased his margin to 56-43.
In Kentucky, Bush won 57-41 in 2000, and padded that to 60-40 four years later.
Obama will win North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia and change the electoral map for good.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:57 PM on 05/26/2008
- Daisy1111 I'm a Fan of Daisy1111 8 fans permalink

Obama will win the urban areas of Georgia.

But in a GE, those suburban and exurban areas may lose the state for him by a small margin.

General Election is winner takes all electoral votes, remember?

Dems have lost states like Georgia by a couple 100G votes. that's all it takes.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:01 PM on 05/26/2008
- RAGGEDSTEP I'm a Fan of RAGGEDSTEP 2 fans permalink

This blog has certainly brought out more than the usual number of ignorant bigots. I grew up in southeastern Kentucky and never experienced the racial animosity one finds in Boston and New York. Sixty years ago a coal mine was a place where a black man could find a job were he not fortunate enough to to be a share cropper. Post Civil Rights, most blacks move on. Who could blame them?

There are messages originating in the African American community which cause offense to many in the white working class. I can explain this by listing some things about myself:

I did not receive any benefit from slavery and Jim Crow so I don't owe reparations.

I don't tear up when someone driving an expensive car or shopping in an upscale store gets treated unfairly. If they think that's oppression, try a pick and shovel deep underground.

I don't owe my job to the fact that so many black men are in prison.

It's not me selling crack to black children. I think those that do should rot doing hard labor.

I am not the victimizer of people who have first class educations and live affluent life styles.

It is, perhaps, a form of racism that Obama gets tainted with all these idiotic sentiments spewing forth from those who exploit race for their own gain.
He is responsible for the "bitter' remark and sitting and listening to Rev. Wright all those years.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:56 PM on 05/26/2008
- qdog112 I'm a Fan of qdog112 68 fans permalink
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"I did not receive any benefit from slavery and Jim Crow so I don't owe reparation­s."

I will assume you are white and that you really believe you did not benefit from "The Peculiar Institution".

I will say to you that any Caucasian who does not recognize the benefits of being white in America cannot be of voting age. (I'm being generous)

OK you nor your ancestors had slaves. I assume you feel slavery was wrong. No one claims you owe a dime, but if the GOVERNMENT SANCTIONED the free labor and property rights - I would argue the government - not you is where the responsibility lies. That does not relieve America of its part in slavery.

What the hell am I doing trying to reply to your post?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:45 PM on 05/26/2008
- Knowitall I'm a Fan of Knowitall 74 fans permalink

I was feeling you some until you said "You" never benefited from slavery or Jim Crow. Understanding basic American history tells you that every American whatever race or ethnicity, whether they came on the Mayflower or just got here on a 747, must understand that America achieved its wealth and dominance in the world with chattel slaves and other exploited populations. When slavery was abolished Jim Crow laws ensured that there would continue to be a class of workers who would never achieve beyond a certain point. BUT, in the end, we ALL benefitted in some way from slavery and Jim Crow. Even today, the current administration has been lax in controlling the borders and outsourcing. Why? Their corporate friends need a steady stream of workers who will accept exploitation that American workers will no longer tolerate.

The vast majority of whites have seen little benefit from legacy wealth. That is why I think it is so unfortunate that too many low income whites continue to think that a wealthy candidate who will throw back shots with them is accepting them as one of the "club" and would be caught dead with them after the ballots are cast.
These politicians who've taken advantage of voters over the years, are laughing behind their hands at voters, while they use our hard earned tax dollars for personal gain and to enrich their friends. Wake UP!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:41 PM on 05/26/2008
- StillIRise I'm a Fan of StillIRise 564 fans permalink
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As a black American who's lived in the black community for over sixty years:

No one is asking YOU to pay reparations. Our government has never reconciled the deprivation black Americans suffered through slavery and Jim Crow. In fact, they refuse to even apologize for it. Most African Americans who support reparations, support it in some form of educational opportunity, not money.

African Americans are very familiar with oppression, and it has nothing to do with expensive cars and upscale stores. Try walking in our shoes.

Your job is irrelevant to the inequities in our justice system that have placed so many innocent and/or non-violent young blacks in prison.

I agree with you about anyone selling crack to children of any color. Are you aware that our laws re: cocaine punish those who use the cheaper crack cocaine (generally black), but do not have the same harsh penalties for those who use the power cocaine (generally white).

Finally, many blacks themselves have first class educations and live affluent lifestyles, and we do not feel victimized by whites who have the same. Class envy is color blind.

Senator Obama did not make a "bitter" remark; his comments of compassion were twisted into something bitter, but the only the people who still twist his words are those who are still concerned with Reverend Wright, and they are in a growing minority.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:52 PM on 05/26/2008
- realpolitic I'm a Fan of realpolitic 149 fans permalink

Still, the comments made by raggedstep are so unfortunate. He should be glad we have available such a statesmen as Obama who may break the color line to achieve the presidency. Instead, Raggedstep resurrects age-old bigotries that he himself can not get past. This election is about war and peace, and restoring integrity to government and not who received some mythical benefits from slavery. Raggedstep, has such bigotries that I feel sorry for him. I hope his attitudes represent a small and disappearing segment of America.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:13 PM on 05/26/2008
- realpolitic I'm a Fan of realpolitic 149 fans permalink

Raggedstep, your statements are the new kind of racism among working class whites, as if everyone is trying to blame you for something. No one is saying most of the things you suggest anyway. Most in the black and brown community just want to make a living, as you do. Obama has, I believe, mentioned raparations to say he does not support it since no blacks living today were slaves themselves. You are simply prolonging a message of fear and bitterness. You should look inside yourself and quit blaming others for bigotry when it may strike closer to home.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:08 PM on 05/26/2008
- RAGGEDSTEP I'm a Fan of RAGGEDSTEP 2 fans permalink

My first comment was too long and I may have done a poor job editing. Subsequent comments are not showing.

The gist of my position is that the schism between working class blacks, browns and whites is manufactured by others for only greed and power. There is a commonality among the working class of this country that is not well served by exploiting race. I am a lifelong Democrat as are most African Americans, but I am just a little bit pissed that someone like Pelosi makes a fortune from investments that outsource jobs. That has nothing to do with race.

I do fault Obama for not campaigning in WV and KY. He made the "bitter" remark and put with the racist Rev. Wright. Rev. Wright is not only full of crap, he has the audacity to preach a Marxist philosophy while living so well as a capitalist.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:59 PM on 05/26/2008

caption should read, Appalachia's problem with Obama...no­t the other way around.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:49 PM on 05/26/2008
- kcam44 I'm a Fan of kcam44 13 fans permalink
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You're right, his problem is his blackness.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:04 PM on 05/26/2008
- BEHM777 I'm a Fan of BEHM777 13 fans permalink
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"Blackness" is not a problem.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:29 PM on 05/26/2008
- NorVaGal I'm a Fan of NorVaGal 13 fans permalink

kcam44: I'm not sure how to interpret your post. Either way, I don't think Obama had anything to do with his blackness or whiteness. That's an issue that was and is completely out of his control. No more so than you or I had any say in our gender(s) or race(s).

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:12 PM on 05/26/2008
- dr4Will I'm a Fan of dr4Will 10 fans permalink
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your wishful thinking that a large part of America doesn't matter for your black candidate is an arrogant display of left wing stupidity--you don't need Americans that are different than you and Husein--what a new change for America! you are sick people and elitist geeks!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:47 PM on 05/26/2008
- qdog112 I'm a Fan of qdog112 68 fans permalink
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COME ON TELL HOW OUR "BLACK CANDIDATE" CAN WIN OVER YOUR KIND.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:54 PM on 05/26/2008
- Aywaller I'm a Fan of Aywaller 5 fans permalink
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By being white. It's that simple.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:04 PM on 05/26/2008
- ystasino I'm a Fan of ystasino 2 fans permalink

It matters only if he has to spend a lot of time in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:42 PM on 05/26/2008
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