Obama's Appalachia Problem Is Real, But Does It Matter

After months of pundits breaking the electorate into racial categories, the factor of geography is slowly being added to the mix. Obama's alleged problem with white voters is being modified; now the problem seems to be with working class voters in the Appalachian region.

Newsweek recently tried to quantify how race and geography could affect Obama in the fall. They note that while the Appalachian problem is more focused than simply a failure to connect with white working class voters, it is still a big problem:

Appalachia is a big place, encompassing 13 states: southwestern New York, western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, West Virginia, western Maryland, western Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, western North and South Carolina, and northern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. You cannot afford to lose all those states and still win in November. Other pollsters have suggested that the race factor is at least noticeable in a much wider swath of rural America, where 60 million voters reside. One recent Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of rural voters in battleground states showed that you are trailing McCain by 9 points (and that Clinton runs even with him). Dee Davis, president of a Kentucky-based advocacy group called the Center for Rural Strategies, points out in a recent article on Salon.com that in June 2004, John Kerry trailed George W. Bush by the same 9-point margin in the same rural battlegrounds.

Your mission is to not wind up like Kerry, who ended up losing the rural vote by 20 points. The "reality," writes Davis, "is that when Democratic candidates run competitively in rural America, they win national elections. And when they get creamed in rural America, they lose."

But Democrats to not need to achieve parity with John McCain among this voting bloc in order to win the election. And one analyst says Obama currently, "is clocking in where he needs to be":

Ruy Teixeira, a Democratic analyst of voting trends, wrote the book on the core issue in the endgame of the party's nomination fight. Its title is "America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters."...

Al Gore lost working-class white voters by 17 percentage points in 2000, even while winning the national popular vote. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts lost them by 23 points in 2004, while running within three points of President Bush over all. Mr. Teixeira suggests that Mr. Obama can win the presidency if he comes within 10 to 12 percentage points of Mr. McCain with these voters, as Democratic candidates for the House did in the 2006 midterm election.

Still, what can be done to shore up support? Greg Sargent has an idea:

All this renewed talk about Appalachia reminds me that Obama privately promised John Edwards that he'd undertake a poverty tour in the general election. Why not take that tour, with Edwards at his side, right through the heart of Appalachia?

And Will Thomas reported on Sen. Jim Webb's intense interest and knowledge about the troubles faced by the Scot-Irish community that makes up the Appalachian population at issue. Webb has been repeatedly mentioned as a vice president for Obama, and could help to balance out support.

Comments

[vsign]

Obama demonstrates flashy urban values and all talk but no action.

Why trust him?

[Cookie100]

Because he's the only Progressive running and he's not a war monger like HRC. Also, who cares who these people vote for anyway. They're poor, uneducated and gave us Bush, twice. They always vote against they're own best interests.

[Daisy1111]

Obama needs every vote he can get. Don;t be naive.

[speakingtruth2power]

That may be overgeneralizing but manipulating the poor into voting against

their own self interests is a major ploy of the fear and loathing party (GOP).

[marijam]

I think you are missing the point entirely. Hillary Clinton has half the votes in the Democratic party, more than half if you count Florida. I don't think the Democratic party can afford to "throw voters away as if they are employees being outsourced."

[MzTerri]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/reportsfromabroad/champblog/2008/05/for_democrats_the_black_vote_i.html

Let's not forget that the black vote is key!

Also, I think hard-working white OR black Americans would be disappointed to know that with the stroke of a pen, Bill Clinton threw them all under the bus when he repealed the Glass-Steagall Act which was put in place to PROTECT Americans from predatory loans. Yes, he had help with this repeal, but by whom? Republicans.

Now he brags about Hillary is going to fix the Foreclosure Crisis.....HIS MESS!!

Just stop believing that their goal is to restore the American dream when they could care less about you. They want to restore their AMERICAN DREAM of being back in power so he can tell her who to pardon this time.

Oh and create new jobs? Look up Tata Consulting, a group they hired in Buffalo, NY to figure out which jobs could be outsourced.

Why trust THEM??

[Fabienne]

New York has lost 30,000 jobs since Clinton became Senator there after promising to add 200,000 jobs to the state.

[marijam]

Last time I looked at statistics, white voters were still in the majority. I don't believe that half the Democratic party is racist and I'm tired of this race-baiting by the Obama camp. If you think you can win with half the votes, more than half if you count Florida, go ahead, lose another election.

[vsign]

Every vote is KEY. The votes that the Democratic Party has lost since it was the great majority in Congress and the Presidency - are the working class votes. The labor unions got diminished but the biggie is that LBJ signed the voter's law and forfeited alot of working class votes with that one single act. The jobs that men had that supported a family were lost. The additional pressure on the working class was great.

If the Democrats ever want to govern again or in other wards - win a General Election again - they have to have a message for the working class. It does not work to have an intellectual snob from the city tell working people what is supposedly good for them.

I'm talking both the working and middle class. We need a leader with our values.

Hillary is like Cherry Ames the Army Nurse. She will get us health care or die trying. That's my kind of gal!

[Cyndee1113]

We should all try to pass a bill that prohibits same family Presidencys. One in the family is enough unless they are distant.

[sandiaview]

Amen! Please keep educating us. Don't forget the proliferation of private prisons under Bill's Presidency. A little something for his dear "brothas".

[Tropiholic]

He was "flashy" and "urban" when he and his Mother lived on food stamps.

[Daisy1111]

That food stamps claim is being challeneged.

Hawaii had no food stamp program.

And Obama was essentially raised by his well-employed grandparents.

[JackLivigni]

"Flashy Urban Values" is a euphemism for "Black values".

Obama has called for increase in pay for teachers, and for an army of volunteers in inner city schools who can get help for their tuition in college by volunteering.

Obama has called for parents to turn off the TV and read to their children.

Obama has called for a healthcare plan that covers the millions who can't afford healthcare today.

Obama has called for benefits for Veterans that the Republican candidate rejected.

These are the Urban Values? Your race baiting post is poor on content just as I would imagine.

[AnnieinOR]

why trust two people who have been complicit in the deaths of 4000 plus soldiers who no longer have a vote in who is president? Do you think their parents, spouses or children will be voting for Hillary or McSame knowing that they are the reasons their loved ones died? Appalachia is poor country, I am sure they lost MANY soldiers.

[Daisy1111]

This is the type of progressive ideology that creates a disconnect between bluecollar workers and Obama.

OBAMA: 'We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK'...

Middle class and blue collar workers are suffering economically right now. And Obama is telling them they still consume too much.

The economy is slumping because consumers ARE buying less. Because in many states they have to drive to work and they scrimp on groceries to make ends meet.

He's also telling them to worry about what other countries think of the USA.

This quote of Obama's shows is just as out of touch with the working class as Kerry was.

[nonconformist2]

It is the Clintons that are responsible for NAFTA which was devastating to the working class.

[Daisy1111]

Is that your strategy for the General Election when it's Obama verses McCain?

"Oh, but the Clintons ..."

Not smart.

[Daisy1111]

I have conceded Obama will be the nominee.

Can the DNC win against McCain by saying, "But the Clintons were bad bad bad."

It's a whole new ballgame.

I'm talking about why there is a disconnect between Obama and the blue collar worker.

He's oblivious to their problems. Just like Kerry was.

[GoodGuysandBadGuys]

"This is the type of progressive ideology that creates a disconnect between bluecollar workers and Obama.

OBAMA: 'We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK'..."

how is that a disconnect? as I said below, when 5% of the worlds population uses 25% of the worlds resources then it's clearly time to change. if people have become accustomed to lifestyles that are wasteful and consume more than necessary, then they're in for a huge reality check, as we are starting to get now. people who think they can consume excessive resources on a planet with finite resources are the ones who have the "disconnect" problem..

[Daisy1111]

A typical porgressive response. I wonder wwhat kind of car you drive. I know more progressives with big SUVs than anyone I know called blue collar.

You are as tone deaf to the working class as Obama is.

In all these rural states cars are not a luxury -- they need them to drive to work.

So now they pay double for gas.

And then they go to the grocery store with LESS money for food. LESS money to buy their kids shoes. LESS money to pay for soraing power bills.

They have this problem NOW. When you offer them a not-now-but-later solution they write you off.

[MrKINOKO]

And your post shows a blue collar lack of understanding of true macro/microeconomics.
One only has to go to Europe, as I have numerous times, to see exactly what Obama is talking about...and why it works so well. In Europe, the refrigerators are half the size of ours. People shop 3 times as much as we do, but in daily increments, so the food is usually fresher also. My friends mother in Estonia has a 200 year old wood burning stove, and every spring fills up the shed with dead scrap wood for it for the winter. She cooks on it, makes tea, and heats the whole house with old wood. Think about that. And then think about how damn greedy we Americans really are. We absolutely do consume too much. It's not even a matter of buying less, it's buying foreign, and buying garbage, which are the issues. Why not buy an American made bicycle, and ride to the store with your kids sometime, instead of driving the Hummer? I just bought a bike last week, a Gary Fisher, and plan to ride it for the duration of the summer.

YOU are the one who is out of touch, and I can almost guarantee you will vote for McBush 3 no matter who is the Dem nominee.

[Daisy1111]

SO you're going to tell blue collar workers they should travel to Europe and then Obama will make sense to them?

Do you want a democrat in the WHite House or do you want to talk macro-ecnomics at Starbucks?

[Angelus2007]

I will eat as much as I want, and I will drive my SUV(I don't have a SUV, no kids, no point), and I never keep my house at 72, I like my AC/Heat at 68. Do you know why? Because this is America and I have the feedoms to do this. I have the right to drive my SUV just like you do your bike. I can heat or cool my house however I want. It is my money, and if I go broke because I have large electric bills, then thats my problem, not Obamas, not yours, and no somebody living across the ocean.

When Obama lives in a $200,000 or heck $300,000 house, and drives a Civic I might listen and not think of him as a hyppocrite. When he asks his family to wear sweaters in the house so he can keep the heat down, and when drives with his wife and kids to campaign events instead of planes, maybe I will listen about saving. I don't care what other countries think, just like I don't care what they do, nor should we. When we have mothers with 3 kids an no job taking my tax dollars, fix them before you fix my eating habits! We always hear "Illegals do the jobs Americans won't" well tell a welfare mother, if you want your welfare, pick these apples, or clean these toilets or lose your benefits.

[marijam]

Not everyone has woods, not every one lives within bicycle riding distance to a grocery store, and you are wrong. People don't want to vote for McCain, they want to vote for Hillary. Many just won't vote if she's not on the ticket. The Democrats could have 8 years of Hillary, 8 years of Obama, then 8 years of Obama's V.P., but they are stupid, as usual and they are trying their best to force out the HIllary supporters, supporters they are going to need during the general election. Sure, people are turning out in record numbers, but half, more than half, those record numbers are Hillary's.

[mhopgood123]

You are twisting Obama's words. He did not say what you are saying, and once the general election campaign starts, and voters see the BIG differences betweeen Obama and McCAin, those blue collar workers will start moving to Obama's column. How can you be suffering and vote against raising the minimum wage, healthcare coverage, college tuition credits, a sound economic policy plan, tax cuts for the middle class and much more? If you vote for McCAin, the white working class will not advance much.

[Daisy1111]

that was a direct quote.

No words were twisted.

Google it,

[marijam]

Like they moved to Al Gore, right?

[marijam]

and John Kerry. Remind me, how many times have the Democrats thought they'd win won? How many times have they lost?

[AMJordan]

The facts are just something that happens to other people, right?

[realpolitic]

This is another part of the country which Democrats have to target and reach out to to gather their votes, besides the evangelicals. After, the last election Democrats became a little more comfortable at speaking about their faiths. Now they may have to learn to speak with this part of the country and their individual concerns.

[Pammy1151]

I want some Hillary person to tell me why her plan to reduce the gas tax holiday is not working. I got gas yesterday and it was still the same price. I thought she was going to give us a break. Hell, if that would have happened I might have thought about voting for her because she would have pulled off a big one!!! NOT

[Daisy1111]

As an obama supporter it's your duty to drive and eat less. Also, turn off your air conditioning.

OBAMA: 'We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK'...

[GoodGuysandBadGuys]

"As an obama supporter it's your duty to drive and eat less. Also, turn off your air conditioning. "

as a citizen of this planet it is your responsibility to consume resources wisely, not excessively.

[MrKINOKO]

The funny thing is, I installed ceiling fans years ago, AND HAVE NEVER IN MY LIFE OWNED AN AIR CONDITIONER. Think about that, Ms. Careless American Consumer. Us, the fattest, most-wasteful, gluttonous society on Earth....and you find that to be acceptable. I bet you don't even recycle...probably think that's "beneath" you, right?

[olivia]

Actually, it's our duty as Americans and as inhabitants of Planet Earth.

Obama has appealed to the very best in every one of us. He is not afraid to ask us to sacrifice. His message is a call to action.

[KYJurisDoctor]

Barack Obama's Appalachian problem exists ONLY once you cross the Mason-Dixon line!

[LeftLeanWing]

One statistical analysis shows that Obama wins primaries in states with a black population below 5% or a black population above 15%.

[speedingpullet]

I saw Chuck Todd's breakdown of this last week - IIRC the %s were under 4% and over 16%, but pretty much the same.

[harriscrl3]

Bill CLinton won 38% of the White vote in 1992 and 41% in 1996. Thats about how much Barack Obama is averaging but Obama has high turnouts rate amongh AA which goes in heaps to Democrat and Youth vote a vote that people didnt even care about.

So I say he is ahed but the way the pundits spin it you would think he is doing terribly that he is getting 20% of the white vote and less than 30% of the AA vote

WTH arent they talking about the McCain and the AA vote and the Freaking YOUTH vote with his DEAD AZZ events that put you to sleep.

Carol

[ejay579]

The problem with your analysis is consideration as to where the remainder went. Ross Perot received over 18% of the vote in 1992. My point being that to say Clinton won in 1992 with only 38% of the vote is not really saying too much. AA turnout and increased voter registration is more critical than it appears.

[olivia]

America may just have to give Appalachia a few more years to catch up.

[TheQuis]

This is a question for all of the folks that feel that they won't vote for Obama. If you were to vote for him, (I know you won't) but if you did, what would he have to do to earn that vote (asside from putting hillary on the ticket)?

Would he have to have more substantive speeches, or put another strong woman on the ticket, like Sebulius, would he have to embrace the health care plan of clinton? What are the circumstances that you would vote for Obama and a democratic presidency?

[Trollstakeyourmeds]

I'm sure their reply would be "If he contacted Michael Jackson's dermatologist". The people cited here will not vote for him because he is BLACK. Okay? He could give whatever speech, promise, refund, etc. that he wanted to, they will not vote for a BLACK man. Sad that there are still people who would feel that way, but that is the reality.

[NeoStar9]

That's exactly the issue. Policy wise there should be no real reason not to vote for him if they were willing to vote for Hillary Clinton. The only other reason they won't vote for him is because he's black. That's it in a nut shell however the media can't simply go out and say that. However I'm pretty sure they know this is the reason why as well.

[NoLove4HillaryAnymore]

It's being made a huge issue so that the pundits can talk about such things like racial divide as it seem a talking point that interests every sector of our race.

IT IS A NON-ISSUE!!

Obama will carry those Appalachia States to close the gap.

[nonconformist2]

I appreciate everyone's concern. But the truth is, either Obama or Clinton will crush McCain in the General Election. McCain is a dinosaur clinging to the issues of the past and has chained himself to Bush on the two most important issues that voters care about: the war and the economy. How Hillary Clinton helps Obama (who will be the nominee - math doesn't lie!) is that she has perfected the populist economic message to bring to the working class voter. Obama will adopt what works, including what worked for Hillary. Hillary will campaign for Obama, because that is what democrats do once a nominee is chosen. A month from now, we will have party unity. Of course, there will be a few bitter and angry supporters of the losing candidate who will refuse to let it go, but by and large, the American people are too invested in the ISSUES to let personal hurt feelings get in the way of electing the best candidate in the fall.

[ggmome]

The Civil War is about to be re-enacted for real! Get it all fired up to take action as projected by the Queen and King of Hate?

[Daisy1111]

Obam supporters -- sell me on your candidate.

What has he proposed to lower gass prices?

What has he propsed to help the home foreclosure situation?

What has he proposed to solve the loss of jobs through NAFTA?

What are his specific soultions on all the above?

If he can answer these questions he can get the bluecollar vote.

But to date my blue collar people I know say "Hope and Change" isn't enough for them. They want specifics.

[nonconformist2]

Obama and Hillary's stands on the issues are almost identical with a few minor exceptions. He refuses to pander on the gas tax holiday. She is more hawkish in reference to Iran. But by and large, they are the same on the issues and would pass similiar legislation if elected president. It's really a personality, and character difference between the two. It is important not to lose sight of the issues that matter in this country and not get caught up in the cult of personality, be it Clinton or Obama.

[Daisy1111]

I asked you to tell me how Obama will solve the gas price issue, among other issues.

Do you know?

[GoodGuysandBadGuys]

you'll find the answers to your questions at http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

[Daisy1111]

I've read it.

I want to see how many Obama supporters have read it.

[MrKINOKO]

1. Reduce our dependancy on foreign oil, via solar, wind, and alternate food/waste based bio-fuels. Force Detroit ( and by proxy, Japan and Bavaria, who will be forced to follow suit ) to raise MPG stats, which has been in their power to do for many years.

2. A "superfund" within the current FANNIE MAE system, whereas a homeowner will be assisted thru the fund, and owe said fund, as opposed to losing his house. I don't know the full details, but Volcker and Buffet have backed up the idea as valid.

3. NAFTA, if used correctly, can benefit all 3 related countries. I'm not sure of his exact views, tho. But i do recall him saying something during the debates about reviewing it, and maybe partially repealing it.
I notice you didn't mention Iraq, or Homeland security, so I guess I should assume the blue collar population isn't too concerned with stuff like that.

[Daisy1111]

1. Reduce our dependency on oil? This is a long term goal every DEM and REPUB says.
It's NOT a solution. Gas may well hit $10 a gallon before any significant oil consumption reduction appears.

Hillary advocates releasing oil from our strategic resevre. It forces prices down immediately.

2. Where does he get the money for the superfund? And how does that help people in the midst of foreclosure NOW. It does not. Yet another 2-years-down-the-road solution.

Hillary advocates a moratorium on foreclosures immediately.

3. NFTA -- compare Obama's Senate Nafta votes to Hillary's. You will find a huge difference. Obama is pro-Nafta.

[Womanvoter4Obama]

I really don't believe it's going to be that much of a problem. Why? The political maps people are using to judge Obama have been totally recreated. He has put states in play that weren't before. If people in WVA, PA, and KY want to let race be the determining factor of their choice for President..that's cool. But I personally am voting my wallet. I support Senator Obama..and I'd support Clinton if she were to win the nomination. I'm a Democrat.

[NoLove4HillaryAnymore]

You are my kinda of gal who asks excellent question and my salute is in order. This are the kind of conversation I wish those that are Hillary Clinton's supporters would ask and try to get an answer for.

Well, you shall find an answer for your question above at http://www.barackobama.com/issues/

Thank you!

[AshevilleVoice]

The fallacy in this thinking is that 'Appalachia' is sparsely populated, and Obama is ahead in every Appalachian city. WVa and Ky are the only 2 states in which the rural white Appalachian vote is not significantly offset by demographics that favor Obama, such as cities with educated whites, middle class whites, college towns, and concentrations of blacks.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Check this out!

Obama has huge leads over Clinton in NC, Va; is leading Clinton in Ga,SC,Ms. Look at the Swing State Analysis- Obama is favored over Clinton to beat McCain in Ohio and Pa!!

In Appalachian states, Clinton would LOSE NC and VA- where Obama would win against McCain. Clinton's primary prize- Ky- is going Repub anyway. Hill's only real gain by pandering to "white, undereducated working class Appalachians" is WVa.

[ggmome]

NO!