Make HuffPost Your HomePage
Get Email Alerts
Obama Competitive Against McCain With Key Voters
WASHINGTON — Barack Obama is competing strongly against Republican John McCain for women, Catholics and other groups that have shunned him in the Democratic primaries but will be pivotal in this fall's presidential race, early polling shows.
Significant blocs of voters who have been closely contested in recent presidential elections _ or veered from one party to the other, making them true swing groups _ have leaned toward Obama's rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton, in the primaries. Besides women and Catholics, these include the elderly, the less educated and suburbanites, leading Clinton to argue she is her party's stronger candidate.
Even so, polls this month show the Illinois senator _ assuming he clinches the Democratic nomination _ leading McCain among women, running even among Catholics and suburbanites and trailing with people over age 65. Results vary by poll for those without college degrees. And though Obama trails decisively with a group that has strongly preferred Clinton _ whites without college degrees _ he's doing no worse than the past two Democratic presidential candidates.
"There's a huge philosophical difference between Republicans and Democrats," said Roberta Stewart, 60, of Olmsted Falls, Ohio, who prefers Clinton but will back Obama. "I have to vote for the Democrat and hope for the best."
Obama is doing well against McCain with groups he has dominated in the primaries. Polls show him leading the Arizona senator with young people and college graduates, though the results vary by poll among independents.
Obama's pursuit of groups that have eluded him in the primaries could be complicated by the strong emotions his lengthy competition with Clinton has aroused. In recent contests, only half her supporters have said they would vote for Obama against McCain.
Yet by Election Day, voters will be more focused on party identification and issues than they are now. Obama won't necessarily need majorities of the swing groups Clinton has dominated; rather, he'll need enough support so that when combined with the young, blacks and his other strong backers, he'll win.
Women have preferred Clinton over Obama by 7 percentage points in this year's Democratic primaries, according to exit polls of voters. When matched against McCain this month, Obama was ahead among women by 5 points in the Gallup Poll, 13 points in a poll by Quinnipiac University and 20 points in a survey by CBS News and The New York Times.
Women voted for John Kerry by 3 points in the 2004 election, but favored fellow Democrats Al Gore in 2000 and Bill Clinton in 1996 by larger margins.
White women are especially in play in November, and they have voted for Hillary Clinton over Obama by 24 points. Polling shows mixed results over whether Obama or McCain leads with this group.
They solidly favored President Bush in 2004, split evenly between Bush and Gore in 2000, and tilted toward President Clinton in 1996.
In addition:
_Though Obama trails Hillary Clinton by 25 points among Catholics in the primaries, he and McCain are dividing them about evenly in national polls. Catholics, a quarter of the 2004 electorate, backed Bush narrowly that year, leaned slightly to Gore in 2000 and heavily toward President Clinton in 1996.
_Obama leads McCain slightly among suburban residents, though he narrowly trailed Hillary Clinton with these voters. This group favored Bush slightly in 2004 and 2000, while President Clinton had the edge in 1996.
_People without college degrees are tilting toward Obama over McCain, though they have preferred Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Whites who haven't finished college have favored Clinton over Obama in the primaries by 30 points, and prefer McCain over Obama, by up to 20 points in the Gallup Poll. Yet that's in the range of recent Democratic losses with this group _ Bush won them by 23 points in 2004 and 17 points in 2000, while President Clinton and Republican Bob Dole split them about evenly in 1996.
_Obama trails Clinton by 24 points among voters age 65 and older. McCain is well ahead of Obama in the Gallup and Quinnipiac polls, but they're about even in the CBS/Times poll. The elderly leaned by small margins toward Bush in 2004, Gore in 2000 and President Clinton in 1996.
In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll last month, about a quarter of Clinton supporters and one in six white Democrats who have not finished college said they would back McCain against Obama, with roughly a quarter of each undecided.
The exit poll data is based on responses from more than 44,000 voters in 33 states that have held Democratic primaries; nearly 14,000 people who voted nationally in 2004; about 13,000 who voted in 2000; and about 16,000 who voted in 1996. The margin of sampling error for each was plus or minus 1 percentage point, larger for some subgroups.
___
Associated Press Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.
(This version CORRECTS to show that Clinton, Dole split whites without degrees, not Dole winning narrowly in 1996.)
Loading comments…
ALAN FRAM | May 28, 2008 04:30 PM EST |
Compare other versions »Compare and versions