Swing State Polls Give Hillary Last-Minute Boost

A Gallup Poll released on May 28 gave a last-minute boost to the central claim of the Hillary Clinton campaign that she would make a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain, prevailing in swing states that have twice as many votes as those in which Obama trounces her.

In a conference call for reporters, Howard Wolfson, Clinton's strategist and communications director, read key paragraphs from the Gallup report entitled "Hillary Clinton's Swing-State Advantage"

The Gallup report found:

"In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.

"In contrast, in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain. Both Democrats are statistically tied with him for the fall election."

The Gallup findings were music to Wolfson's ears, so much so that he reread the first graph aloud to make sure it sank in.

Gallup presented the survey findings in a set of charts:

The Gallup analysis becomes more complex when it focuses only on "swing states" - those that George W. Bush or John Kerry won by less than five percentage points in 2004.

Clinton won primaries or caucuses in eight swing states, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arkansas, and disputed contests in Florida and Michigan. In surveys of those states, which have a total of 105 electoral votes, Gallup found that a hypothetical general election matchup put Clinton ahead of McCain by an average of six points, 49 to 43, while Obama runs an average of three points behind McCain, 43-46.

Conversely, in the swing states that backed Obama -- Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri with a total of 54 electoral votes - Obama holds a solid eight point lead over McCain, on average, while Hillary is nearly tied, 45-46.

The Gallup report concluded: "Clinton's main advantage is that her states -- including Florida and Michigan -- represent nearly twice as many Electoral College votes as Obama's."

Comments

[ATLiberal]

Like many analyses, this is a recitation of dry facts with no context. Since the May 6 primaries, when the vast majority of realists understood the math did not work for her under any plausible scenario, Obama has been duking it out with McCain. Hillary has had a completely free ride to say anything and make any argument she wants about her candidacy, including inflammatory rhetoric like the FL/ MI situation is akin to the struggle for Civil rights and elections in Zimbabwe. This takes a toll when it is not countered on a daily basis.

Second, does anybody seriously believe that polls taken in May will predict the actual election in November?? Because I have a couple of sobering reality checks for you. Check the polls for Clinton vs the entire Democratic field in Dec of last year. Finally, don't forget that Dukakis led Bush Sr by 17% in the June '88 polls. We all know who got the landslide victory in that one.

[mouve]

ATLiberal wrote: Like many analyses, this is a recitation of dry facts with no context.

Right... btw, did you notice that the error margins are missing in those polls? And the number of interviewed people, too. So I wouldn't count too much on those polls (or did i overlook something?).

Anyway, as abby4ever states, there's a lot to happen in the next months. And in my opinion it's a different situation if you just _imagine_ there are only two contestants left or if this is really the case. So let's just hope the remaining uncommitted supers decide in a sensible way (that is, in a democratic nation, respect the will of the people).

[hussein]

It's all there. They interviewed 11,000 people. That's more than turnout in some caucuses.

[abby4ever]

Hillary knows full well that the polls flucuate with every political wind that blows, that what they are today
might be different than what they will be tomorrow. As another poster remarked, Hillary's standing in the polls in December of 2007 indicated thatg she was just about a shoe in for the Presidency, but that is no longer the case.
Aside from this, she has rejected the delegate count as the decider for the nominee when she knows full well that's the way it's set up.
Hillary is a cherry-picker---and an outlaw when it comes to obeying the rules.
A maverick.

[AxelDC]

Clinton has a fundamental problem that makes her election difficult in any scenario, and impossible now: 45% of the electorate does not like her. It's not a recent thing brought out by the campaign. We've known her for nearly 20 years, and she has very high negatives.

Obama would have never had a chance if Clinton were well loved. His core supporters turned to him after they rejected her. She would have an extremely hard time getting his core supporters to not only vote for her, but work for her, volunteer for her, lobby for her and donate for her. Her antics the last few months have really ossified the anti-Clinton sentiments among key components of the Democratic base: blacks, liberals, young voters and the college educated. Without these voters, not only would she lose, she would cost the Democrats across the board. She would have a hard time even maintaining a properly functioning campaign, just like she is having now. Does she want to self-fund a General Election race?

She needs to exit with grace or else she risks forever alienating the heart of the Democratic party. This race is lost for her, unless the Super Delegates want to commit electoral suicide. She needs to worry about Obama supporters turning against her in NY if she wants to keep her seat or run for governor. The idea of Chelsea running for office makes Obama voters even more annoyed with this elitist, narcissistic family.

[TopDog]

Obama will blow McCain away in November.

[AxelDC]

This race won't be close. The only thing keeping McCain alive right now is Clinton. This past week, Scott McClellan completely undermined his case for Iraq, an already unpopular stance. Phil Gramm is threatening McCain's weak resume on domestic issues. Bush is political poison this year.

If you cede the economy and Iraq to Obama, what do you run on? Gay marriage?? That's going to be hard when Ellen Degeneres thumped you in an impromptu debate on daytime TV.

[stringer]

Honestly. Can we just pick whatever polls we want from whatever week we want and use that to boost our candidate?

Honestly. Look she's lost. Period. Deal with it.

You have two options: 1) respect the winner or 2) steal it for Clinton. People have made it clear they're not going for option 2. What do you want to do?

[AxelDC]

Right now, Obama leads her by about 11 among Democrats, and leads McCain by 3 nationally. She leads McCain by 2 pts. Is that enough to overturn the results of the primaries?

Obama's biggest problem is having a member of his own party daily tell voters that he is unelectable. Once she is gone, he will have a much easier case.

If she gets the nomination, she will have to spend the entire campaign explaining to Obama voters: blacks, college educated, young, etc., why America just can't support a black man for president.

[pupbayer]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107488/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Maintains-Lead-Over-McCain.aspx

[jkpcguru]

The only reason for her rise in state victories and polls is BARACK OBAMA AND THE REPUBLICANS HAVEN'T BEEN ATTACKING HER IN WEEKS!

Her and her supporters are in LaLa land. She's stuck in a suspended animation. She's in a dream world. Her opponents have been ignoring her to let her finish out her campaign. She has to fight to get in the headlines..AKA MI and FL

Barack Obama already started the general election! Come people, you know my argument is valid.

[marco34la]

Your argument is childish and ridiculous. The fact and the most important thing -- is NOT the poll -- rather it's that the states SHE won are the big swing states that matter most in the general election. The poll is irrelevent. It's just icing on the cake for her.

Obama won more states but they were much much smaller and are RED states that vote REPUBLICAN anyway. That's the problem he faces. Whether he's ready and moved on to the general doesn't matter. This info is about WINNING the general and the suggestion is that he might not be able to.

[AxelDC]

He does better in many of the states she won, like Indiana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Massachusetts, California, New Jersey, etc. He'll do even better once she stops telling voters how unelectable he is every chance she gets.

Winning the primary is not the same as winning the general election. Just because she got Republicans to vote for her in Ohio doesn't mean they will vote for her in the fall. You think Faux News would be so nice to her in the fall?

I'd love to see how black voters react to her stealing the nomination from him. Wanna see race riots at the DNC convention à la 1968?

[butchie65]

How can you say SHE won them when Limpball's had Repugs vote for her. How do you think she will win those states without their votes. Do you think the young people and the AA will vote for her ? Please explain how she will do it.

[bygollymissmolly]

Obama hasn't said a word about Hillary in weeks. He has been avoiding referring to her in any way other than complimentary.

Hillary has done it to herself. All the flack she has gotten in the last couple of weeks came from her mistakes and her scorched earth policies.

I would just love to see how well Hillary would be polling if Obama had been hammering on her they way she has been hammering on him for the last four months. He had plenty of ammunition he could have used. He could have simply run an ad:

"Hillary Clinton, presidential candidate. Do you really think that is where she would be if her name was Hillary Rodham?"

He could have brought up her involvement in the Paul case, something he has scrupulously avoided. That issue has also been avoided by that nasty press that is out to get Hillary. I wonder why that is?

[BluesDogLefty]

Look, the very idea that the polls have changed one way or the other suggest that over the next 6 months they will also change again to God knows what---so how is this relevant?

[marco34la]

It's not the polls... that's just icy on the cake. It's the info you should be looking at.
Obama lost in the biggest, most important and pivotal swing states in the primaries. The polls confirm that loss now... many weeks later. You say you're an inspired supporter... well use the information and HELP your candidate in those states by campaigning for him there... instead of just cutting things down or ignoring vital information for winning the general.

[ATLiberal]

Reality check. The superdelegates are not going to vote for someone whose argument is I lost the delegate race, but I won the most important states. If that were so, then we would just have a primary in states we deem to be important and screw the rest.

Your argument puts the superdelegates in a position they do not want to be in, which is overturning the delegate leader on an argument about "important" states and ignoring the preset rules that everyone agreed to. It just isn't going to happen that way.

[bygollymissmolly]

Yes, and if many of those states were allowed a "do over" today she would lose those states. Look at California. They are having a huge case of "buyer's remorse".

[AxelDC]

Five months ago, she had a 30 point lead over Obama. Today he has an 11 point lead over her.

There are five months until November. At this point in 2004, Kerry had a 15 point lead over Bush. In 1992, Bush was ahead of Perot, and Perot was ahead of Clinton. Are you saying that Clinton came n 3rd based on spring polling?

She is still in full-on attack mode with him, and yet he is still beating her and McCain. Imagine what he will be like when she finally stops attacking him.

Her cherry picking polls is no different from her cherry picking her experience from her husbands. It's disingenuous and she knows it.

[ccrnjr]

(05-28) 20:17 PDT San Francisco -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she will step in if necessary to make sure the presidential nomination fight between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama does not reach the Democratic national convention - though she believes it could be resolved as early as next week.

[innerjuju]

Where did you get this from?? I would like to read this article.

[Vern58]

So the decision metric is now down to opinion polls in May. Hillary methinks you will be dissapointed this time too. Any old twist to get you a vote,cookie?

[marco34la]

Why is it that Obama supporters, the people who say they're for hope and change, have to belittle and spin anything that suggests that Obama is not the messiah? The decision metric is not based on polls - this poll as suggested is just icy on the cake for Clinton. The point is -- she has won the big, important and pivitol swing states that are necessary to win the general election.
Obama, has won more states, but he won the small pop of democrats in much smaller RED states which aren't going to do us any good in the fall.

Why can't you just take in the information and see and understand it for what it is. You are like a bigot who has to put down anyone who is black who moves into an all-white neighborhood. Just because Hillary has done better here -- doesn't mean that Obama is less. IF you were smart and
"inspired" like you say you are, then perhaps you should channel your energy into a campaign effort for Obama in these swings states INSTEAD of just trying to cut down Hillary's accomplishments.

[WandaBooneshaft]

Please take your iced cake and go away. Oh, and take HRC with you ...

[AxelDC]

Because half the reason I voted for Obama is that I can't stand the Clintons. If she steals the nominaton, I hope she loses. Therefore, her electability argument fails to impress me at all.

If she didn't have such high negatives coming into the primaries, Obama wouldn't have had a prayer. His victory, like most elections, were as much about his qualities and his opponents failings.

If she were serious about winning the nomination, she would be mending fences with Obama voters. Instead of attacking him and his supporters, she should be sucking up to us.

Instead, she belittles him and his supporters, many of whom are the core of the Democratic Party. How does she plan to win without blacks, liberals and college educated voters?

[bygollymissmolly]

No one has ever called Obama the "Messiah" other than Hillary supporters like you.

"Why can't you just take in the information and see and understand it for what it is."

Ok, why can't you take it and understand it for what it is, meaningless data five months before a primary. It is not proof that Hillary is the best candidate.

We will be working hard to elect Obama in every state. He has a 50 state strategy and that means that he considers every state to be relevant unlike Hillary who picks and chooses the states she thinks are relevant.

[RBChicago]

Thank you, nice to read something intelligent on here.

[funnyguy]

Polls do change, and during the past five months when they have not favored Clinton, her campaign ignored them or said they were not important.

The Clintons have put up a barrage of negativity during the past two months; some of it has stuck, but it will evaporate as soon as she leaves the stage and McCain will stop having a free ride. In fact, by July 15, Obama will be holding a national 6-8 point lead on McCain, which will become even bigger the more voters see the contrast with McCain.

This will be the first not-close election since 1988; Obama will win in a landslide.

[emory]

lets all collectively stop writing stories like this and Hillary will just go away. after all she lost so lets just report on the race at hand OBAMA vs McBUSH

[marco34la]

Emory. Why don't you set the example and just stop on your own. You sound like a 7th grader suggesting to her girlfriends that they ignore a classmate during recess and lunch.
Be constructive -- help your candidate in some meaningful way, like making phone calls or sending out fliers instead of wasting your time and words here.

[ccrnjr]

I worked for a political phone polling company a few years ago. The only people that would talk to me were mostly elderly and female. A few elderly and highly opinionated men would want to go on talking for hours. In thousands of calls, not once did someone my age want to talk. They always said they were busy. So, take polls with a grain of salt.

[KarateKid]

Five more days until Cinderella runs out of time and the carriage leaves without her. tick, tick, tick, tick, tick......................

[obamajusrocks]

Let's face it and call a spade a spade. Hilary Clinton only got this far soley on name recogntion. The more voters get to know Hilary up close and personal, and scrutinise her record, let alone her penchant for exaggeration if not outright lying, voters get repulsed pretty quick.

On the other hand, with Obama once people get to know him, they overwhelmingly shift to his camp.

So whatever the polls says, when the General Election comes in November, we can be quite certain Obama will be far ahead.

As for Clinton, it's almost certain she would lose any general election by a landslide.

[rooks]

I don't know. If it was Clinton vs. Mcbushie, I might bet on a rock as winning.

[MM5]

No one seems to note that these are Hillary's numbers based on practically no negative attacks against her. Meanwhile she threw all the dirt Obama's way and so this is the worst he will do. I will place my bet on him in a general.

[bygollymissmolly]

Absolutely. The same goes for McCain. The only reason why he is polling in the 40's is because he has had a free pass and most Americans still think that he is a "maverick". Once the Democrats introduce America to the real John McCain (the Democrats have to do it because the MSM won't), McCain is going to be toast.

Considering what Obama has had thrown at him by his fellow Democrat and by the Repubican party, I find it amazing that he is holding his own as well as he is.