Swing State Polls Give Hillary Last-Minute Boost

A Gallup Poll released on May 28 gave a last-minute boost to the central claim of the Hillary Clinton campaign that she would make a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain, prevailing in swing states that have twice as many votes as those in which Obama trounces her.

In a conference call for reporters, Howard Wolfson, Clinton's strategist and communications director, read key paragraphs from the Gallup report entitled "Hillary Clinton's Swing-State Advantage"

The Gallup report found:

"In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.

"In contrast, in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain. Both Democrats are statistically tied with him for the fall election."

The Gallup findings were music to Wolfson's ears, so much so that he reread the first graph aloud to make sure it sank in.

Gallup presented the survey findings in a set of charts:

The Gallup analysis becomes more complex when it focuses only on "swing states" - those that George W. Bush or John Kerry won by less than five percentage points in 2004.

Clinton won primaries or caucuses in eight swing states, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arkansas, and disputed contests in Florida and Michigan. In surveys of those states, which have a total of 105 electoral votes, Gallup found that a hypothetical general election matchup put Clinton ahead of McCain by an average of six points, 49 to 43, while Obama runs an average of three points behind McCain, 43-46.

Conversely, in the swing states that backed Obama -- Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri with a total of 54 electoral votes - Obama holds a solid eight point lead over McCain, on average, while Hillary is nearly tied, 45-46.

The Gallup report concluded: "Clinton's main advantage is that her states -- including Florida and Michigan -- represent nearly twice as many Electoral College votes as Obama's."

Comments

[mesuki]

At this point I don't give a damn what the polls say. I just want Hillary to just go away. I don't care where she goes,how she goes,I just want her to vanish off the face of the earth. I'm sick and tired of her lies,,her whinning,her accusation­s.I'm sick of McCauliffe with his hyperactive personality and his elaborate lies. I'm sick of Wolfson with his bold face lies and accusations,I'm sick of Bill with that wagging finger and red face lying and misleading his supporters­.I'm sick of them all,but most of all I'm sick of people walking on eggshells around Hillary trying not to upset her supporters for fear that they won't vote for Obama if Hillary doesn't get the nomination!

[jpetaluma]

Amen!

[marco34la]

I don't think anyone on the Huffington Post is walking on egg shells around Hillary supporters.
And the reason that her supporters are more apt not to support Obama in the fall should he be the nominee... is because of people like you. Obama might be a nice guy and people might be willing to overlook his inexperience and vote for him in the fall... if it weren't for the malicious and vile
comments coming from Obama supporters that are part of "Obama's Campaign". Obama looks clean but is filthy because of people like you and people are aware of that.

You want Hillary to go away... well if Obama could win... then she would. You don't go to a baseball game and get angry at the other team because they won't quit so your team can win.

[HWNA]

Perhaps if she hadn't said all those vile and ugly things about Obama, the majority of Obama supporters wouldn't feel such antipathy towards her.

As for your baseball analogy, there is a lot more at stake in this year's election than a pennant or trophy.

[JimR]

If this is a baseball game, Hillary is trying to convince the officials to credit her with a touchdown.

[TheKnownTruth]

Well let's see now. Who's this Clinton person ? And Who's this Gallup organization ? What was the demographics ? And how does this compare with similar polls. ? I have found each poll supplier biased. I usually take the data from several and average them. Gallup for sure has its own built in biases to Hillary's based demographic.

Tom put your hat back on. You're down to the single digits again.

Think ...have a nice day

[Marcospinelli]

What a tool Edsall is.

For the last month, Obama hasn't been campaigning against Clinton. How is it a professor of journalism is so dishonest as to not explain the "bump" a candidate gets when she's not being campaigned against?

[olivia]

McCain hasn't been campaigning against Clinton either.

She's getting a free pass, not being campaigned against by ANYONE, and she's only marginally ahead in only some of the polls? What a terrible candidate she is.

[rooks]

Isn't that great? Everyone is ignoring her. Get the fly out of the room.

[marco34la]

I don't know how "terrible" a candidate she could be -- since she has won the biggest swing states and blue states in the country. I do however, think your assessment and
divisive, hypocritical comments "terrible.­"

[xcrunner77]

It's already over. These polls mean nothing.

If you had all the primary contests (including MI and FL) one year ago today, Hillary would have won in a landslide. Now she's stumbling blindly for the exit.

The general election landscape -- including polls -- will look much worse for McCain six months from now, just as it looks different for Hillary now than it did a year ago.

[marco34la]

That's very hopeful and optimistic considering the fact that Obama has lost most of the important and highly populated swing states...s­ome as you know, just a couple weeks ago... by 35pt and 41 pt loss. Not exactly a rosy picture of success.

Further, forget about a year ago, if all the primaries took place on Super Tueday 3 months ago...
she would have won then too. I can tell by your comments that you're just a kid and this is your first election. Let me tell you... 4 years ago we all thought Kerry was going to win and 4 yrs before that Gore was a shoe in... don't under-estimate the repubs, nor the popularity among her own fan base. Obama's chances are much slimmer of winning this fall than you think. 51% people voted in Bush 2x (white, conservative, religious, values folk) so that leaves 49% dems... and of that...
only 1/2 support Obama at this point. Like Hillary, it's turned out that Obama is a polarizing figure.

[obamagirl1968]

Number of states Obama won by more than 30 points = 11
Number of state Clinton has won by more than 30 points = 3 (WV, KY, AK)

Give me a break!

[blaqntelligence]

marco34la: "....if all the primaries took place on Super Tueday 3 months ago...she would have won then too".

"...if democratic primaries were like republican's she would have won by now.....
....if you count FL and MI she will have the popular vote......­.
....if people would stop being so mean, she could win.....
....if the SD's overturn the will of the people, she will win.....

And if pigs could fly, bacon would always be on sale.....

She can't seem to win from any scenario except on a "if"......­.
Why?
Oh, I forgot, if the media, Obama's camp, and the country weren't so sexist she could catch a break.....­..Yeah, right.

[unity08]

This is ridiculous; based on one set of polls in May! Why dont we just go ahead and give the Presidency to Clinton. Who needs a stinkin election!

Once there is a nominee the polls will change! duh

[ObamAtomic]

Florida court throws out suit against DNC

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/28/121143/922/613/524161

[Damon]

These polls only take into account those who intend to vote, the registered democrats, they don't take into account all the new voters that Barack has brought to the process, all the new voters who almost never voted before and decided to do so just thanks to Barack.
More importantly, they don't take into account the independent who will decide this election, a share of the voters Clinton cannot win. A lot of republicans will cross over to vote for Barack, what they'll never do if Clinton is the nomibee, do these polls take this into account ??

Polls don't mean anything right now, we'll see the real truth once this woman is out, she's misleading the voters; Barack has more money, a better and stronger organization, and most of all almost no debt, which is not the case of Clinton.

These polls arent' telling the truth right now, they aren't relevant..­.

[JHCowboy]

This is true. Barack has brought in millions of new voters in the states that are not traditionally swing states. It is in these states that the new Democrats are going to create new swing states and upset the demographics in many ways. The old way of thinking is going to shortly be a thing of the past.

[JJK]

You're right that polls this early are not accurate (they can point out things we should think or worry about, but they don't say much else).

My only caution to folks out here is that Democrats have counted before on "new voters" and ended up disappointed on Election Night (and, yes, every time we argue "But this time it's going to be different!" and have a list of reasons to support that argument). We have to think of the "new voters" as gravy, not the meal itself, which consists of holding Pennsylvania (the key state--today at least--in this election IMO) and all of Kerry's states and then picking up enough additional electoral votes among Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia.

[olivia]

If Hillary somehow got the nomination the Republicans would go to work on her, and they'd crush her in a week.

[Gmoney1]

Hillary is destroying the democratic party - she believes if she can't win, she will destroy the democratic nominee to the extent that McCain will win - if Obama gets the nomination, Hillary will pretend she is backing him - she is a snake in the grass - just think, if she had put this much energy in her marriage, bill clinton and monica lewinsky, she would not be so bitter now - she is on a mission to show bill clinton that she will make him sweat for what he did to her - we have to pay for Hillary's onging revenge against bill clinton -

[queensboro]

if she steals it from obama i and my friends will vote democrat down the line except president. and even if mcnuggets get elected the house and the senate will be ours

[olivia]

Good point. In some ways getting a veto-proof majority in both houses of Congress is even more important than taking the White House. A McCain without a supportive Congress would be a lame duck from day 1.

I can't campaign for Hillary. I'll pour all my energy and money into the House and Senate races. And I'll write in a candidate for President.

[marco34la]

Hillary wouldn't want your vote. She doesnt try extorting and educing votes from impressionable uninformed kids on college campuses..­. that's Obama's gig.
She'd rather support from individuals who know and care about the issues... than someone who's only interested in a running a popularity contest.

[patmancando]

queensborom
Hate to break the news to you that Obama doesn't have the nomination yet; so how can it be stolen from him. On the other hand, I can understand why you would think that with all the media and Obama campaign propaganda since March. With the polls showing that Hillary would beat McCain in the swing states that she carried in the primary for 105. In the states he won in the primary and now leads McCain would net 54 votes. Getting nervous...­yet. You don't think the SDs are pouring over these polls weighing the factors carefully. Fasten your seat belts kiddies, it is going to be a rough ride. Think in the end experience might win over charisma?

[Tinsdale]

What is the quality of Senator Clinton's expierience?
Her mangement skills in managing her campaign and its finances?
Her statecraft expierience in voting for the Iraq war, without the most modest examination of its consequences, such as simply reading the NIE?
Her expierience in economic issues in promoting the "No-tax-on­-gas-Summe­r-vacation­" which was even criticized by Paul Krugman, an economist and Clinton ally?
Her diplomatic experience in being coldly and sarcastically put down by Putin after a gratuitous antagonistic comment she made about him?
Her commander in chief experience by vowing to bomb the Iranian people into oblivion?
And finally, her extensive international experience as demonstrated in Tuzla as a leader of veracity and immense courage?

[loisinthepink]

As I have stated more than once to Dean, Pelosi, Reid, the DNC, etc, etc., if HRC bullys her way to this nomination, I will vote for her because I can't see McCain winning, and I am not stupid enough not to vote. But, I will NOT CAMPAIGN for her NOR WILL I DONATE TO THE PARTY. This in not a threat...i­t is just how I feel and I suspect there are many others in the same boat.

[DRaymond]

So we're letting Gallup select the nominee now?

Obama has better organization and way more cash. None of those count in the current polls, But they will make a big difference in how much they can be changed between now and November.

[patmancando]

It has got to better than letting the media select her/him. Look who the media backed in 2000 and 2004......­.......loo­k what it got us and he didn't even have a beer with his constituents.

[chronic]

This is because racists are screaming they would not vote for Barak but vote for McCaine


McCaine will be the next President because there is no stopping Americas slide into the ABYSS!!!

[patmancando]

You Obama supporters keep classifying anyone who doesn't support your candidate as racists, even worse, sometimes you define them as poor white trash racists. Did you ever stop and think that it might be that some us think Hillary is better qualified to take us out of the wilderness left by GWB and restore our economy and respect in the world. I am a post graduate from the U of Michigan..­...a good school and a good education provided to me; so I'm not considered white trash, but I am for Hillary because we need someone other than a dreamer to lead this country in these perilous times and in the extreme urgency of now. And yes she can! Bill did a good jog for his eight years, and she will do even better during hers.

[Peteyman]

If Hillary were better qualified, she would've won the primary race

[blaqntelligence]

patmancando: "You Obama supporters keep classifying anyone who doesn't support your candidate as racists, even worse, sometimes you define them as poor white trash racists."

Actually your girl said that, remember?
"Hardworking, white American's" "blue collar workers" in rural areas such as WV, KY,PA, OH etc.

[chefrasta]

Have faith we the people will get our country back.Just stay strong .

[Gericault]

I'm soooooooo glad we don't let our polls pick our democratic nominee.

I heard that Bill Clinton started the guys at Survey USA polls. Just a little FYI

[condew]

Hillary is not a team player. She endorsed the Republican and attacked a fellow Democrat. She lost. That makes her a loser no matter if she can find the occasional flattering poll.

She can lunch with Geraldine Ferraro, commiserate that racism just isn't the potent force it once was, and blame it all on men, because, as a woman, no criticism of her could possibly be justified.

Obama will gain as the Hillary distraction goes away and he can turn his full attention on McCain.

McCain will sink like a stone once Obama starts shining a light is McCains dark corners.

[chefrasta]

Could be because no one is campaigning against her right now.People this thing is over do you honestly thing if by some theft the Clinton's steal this nomination they would win?Its not enough post menopausal white women in Appalachia to win the general.

[olivia]

The Republicans are not campaigning against Hillary. They are trying to help her get nominated, so they can tear her down later.

[LeeScho]

So what are you saying? That Obama will actually have to campaign against McCain in order to win?
Okay. He will. And when he does, where are most of those Hillary Clinton votes going? To McCain? No.