Swing State Polls Give Hillary Last-Minute Boost

A Gallup Poll released on May 28 gave a last-minute boost to the central claim of the Hillary Clinton campaign that she would make a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain, prevailing in swing states that have twice as many votes as those in which Obama trounces her.

In a conference call for reporters, Howard Wolfson, Clinton's strategist and communications director, read key paragraphs from the Gallup report entitled "Hillary Clinton's Swing-State Advantage"

The Gallup report found:

"In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.

"In contrast, in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain. Both Democrats are statistically tied with him for the fall election."

The Gallup findings were music to Wolfson's ears, so much so that he reread the first graph aloud to make sure it sank in.

Gallup presented the survey findings in a set of charts:

The Gallup analysis becomes more complex when it focuses only on "swing states" - those that George W. Bush or John Kerry won by less than five percentage points in 2004.

Clinton won primaries or caucuses in eight swing states, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arkansas, and disputed contests in Florida and Michigan. In surveys of those states, which have a total of 105 electoral votes, Gallup found that a hypothetical general election matchup put Clinton ahead of McCain by an average of six points, 49 to 43, while Obama runs an average of three points behind McCain, 43-46.

Conversely, in the swing states that backed Obama -- Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri with a total of 54 electoral votes - Obama holds a solid eight point lead over McCain, on average, while Hillary is nearly tied, 45-46.

The Gallup report concluded: "Clinton's main advantage is that her states -- including Florida and Michigan -- represent nearly twice as many Electoral College votes as Obama's."

Comments

[ghd]

What are all you good people going to do after the general election? Mend your marriage? Take notice of your kids? Pay your bills on time? Go back to reading the sports news? Me? I am going to continue what I have been doing for 35 years now: read good political biographies and immerse myself in history. To me, all this political crap is just that. As for polls? Hmmmmm! All major polls said that Thomas Dewey would trounce Harry Truman in 1948! So much for polls.

[Zoolie]

So why are you here?

[WilliamGossett]

Like it or not, it is a strong argument.

The goal is winning

not being "right"

[eej]

Wrong.

That's how Democrats keep losing.

[111]

That was what Hillary based her campaign on and she lost

[mntnguy]

How is it a strong argument? I can tell you this I am glad we have such well educated people as superdelegates because if they were as dumb as anyone who puts faith in polls they would fall for such a stupid argument. A strong argument would be if she were ahead in the popular vote the delegate count, states won, money raised, that would be a strong argument. this is useless and will get her campaign nowhere

[abby4ever]

How can you even say this? As magnitude points out in a post above, Hillary was favored in the polls in December of 2007---and now look where she is, having to bite and claw her way to a convention she plans to hijack. If polls are so accurate, why isn't she in Obama's winning shoes now?
see Thunderclap's post for the answer.

[RENREVARD]

I live in Michigan.t­he gallup poll is wrong.The lastest poll in this state shows Hillary losing to Mccain by 11 points.Oba­ma beats Mccain by 4 points.The voters in this state are mad as hell at Hillary for all the games she has played in getting the states primary to count.Bill Clinton lost 13 primary states that he than turned around and won in the general election.H­illary was ahead 6 months ago in all the polls.Look at where she is at today.Hill­arys talking points this far away from the general are mute!

[KGinSanFrancisco]

Thanks for clarifying!

[rzan]

Thank you. I knew he was winning in Michigan, but of course Hillary wants to pretend that all you Obama supporters don't exist.

[hugs4u]

the only reason hillary would lead in a poll is because she is doing Karl Roves type stuff. She belongs in the repukeican primaries because really that is where her heart is.

[harriscrl3]

I keep saying HIlary has NOT been Vetted dont buy the hype once she gets into the general election if she gets intot he ggeneral as the nominee those numbers will start plummeting.

At this poiint I dont care what argument Hilary is using the only argument that matters are Pledge delegates they've doing it that way for a while nowI dont care if Hilary beat McCain in some poll by 20 Obama has the most pledge delegates he should BE the nominee. It wasnt that long ago that her and McCain was trailing Obama so now because she is doing better that means we should change the way things are being done. Sorry I disagree and if you think changing the way things are being done and then have Hilary be the nominee and think thats going to gurantee you a victory come November when you disenfranchise Obama supporters then its a deluded dream. His supporters are going to be angry and LEGITIMATELY so oppose to her supporters

Carol

[eej]

She has not been vetted. The Republicans have not opened their bag of dirt on her because they are still trying to get her nominated.

[WilliamGossett]

You know, you may be right

Ed Rollins on CNN actually acted angry (or indignant) that the Dems were choosing Obama. He was acting indignant by claiming that it would the same stupid thing that Democrats have done for years (chosen then wrong candidate or a weaker candidate.­)

That would be an appropriate emotion if he were a Democrat. Why would he act so indignantly as a GOP? Lord knows, he would seem happy that the Dems would be choosing the weaker candidate.

Could it be a feign? Is he really trying to fake the Dems into choosing Hillary?

Doesn't make sense or it does make sense, depending on how you look at it.

[KGinSanFrancisco]

All repugs praise Hillary, including Karl Rove, for obvious reasons. Do you think they'll vote for her? Not in a million years! They sure want to run against her and have an arsenal of dirt on both Clintons. That's why they are still pushing for her to be vp, they can destroy Obama by destroying the ticket with Hillary.
No Hillary for VP!

[MaineMike]

For the last couple of weeks Obama has been campaigning against McCain and not against Clinton. In fact Obama has gone out of his way to compliment Clinton. McCain is campaigning against Obama and not against Clinton. And then there’s Bill saying that Hillary has pretty much already won the general election.

So if you believe that campaigning can change poll results, then it makes sense that Clinton’s numbers are going up, since there is no one campaigning against her.

[Testtubebaby]

The Repubs are sitting back laughing just hoping she gets nominated. They haven't begun to open the bag of tricks called Clinton. She's whinning, *itching and moaning and everyone is supposed to eat it up. Please these polls are pure BS and this guy is still singing all things Clinton.

[FogCityJohn]

The problem with all of these polls is that they're being conducted in a completely artificial environment. Clinton has been benefitting for months now from a Republican cease-fire. The Republicans haven't said one bad thing about her because they're trying to prolong the Democratic primary contest. Obama hasn't been attacking her because he's likely going to be nominated and doesn't want to alienate her supporters.

Obama, on the other hand, has been on the receiving end of attacks from BOTH McCain and Clinton. He's been fighting a two-front war in which he can respond fully on only one front -- the one against McCain.

But of course, in a general election campaign, Clinton wouldn't be getting off so easily. Her opponents would be doing to her the same thing she's been doing to Obama -- throwing the kitchen sink at her. Believe me, if she were the nominee, the Republicans would let loose against her, and her poll numbers would drop. Contrary to what her campaign has been saying, she's not being "vetted." Right now she's getting a free ride. These polls reflect only the sheltered environment she's been living in since February or so.

[Dalpine]

Clinton is divisive, dishonest and disliked by a healthy majority of Americans. She can't win.

[hillarysupporter]

I suppose that's why why she has over 17 million voters!

[useyourbrain]

Why is a Republican hit job on HRC necessary? The Democrats are doing a better job then they could and they don't get any flack for seeming (I gag on the word) rational.

[rzan]

She prefers Republicans to Democrats, but the Republicans will betray her if they have the chance.

[FogCityJohn]

Not sure what "Democrats" you're talking about. If you think the Democrats are doing a "hit job" on Hillary, you likely wouldn't be able to deal with what the Republicans would do to her. She's been able to go negative on Obama without him going negative on her in the way the Republicans will. This is helping her poll numbers. But that would all change dramatically if she were to become the nominee.

[eej]

(I'm working up my best Edith Bunker voice)

Oh that's noice, it'll make her feel better!

[CTmom13]

This poll was before her RFK GAFFE!!!

[ObamAtomic]

The polls,letters created by........­Karl Rove.

[Maury66]

All those who wish to buy into various oversimplifications may do so, but here is something simple to grab onto.....O­bama will be the nominee, so we had best be about the task of getting him elected. I should point out, he is already hard at it, so get off his back, HIllary et al, and get to work.

[eej]

Hillary does not want Obama to win the general election. That's what this is all about.

[Heaphy]

Maury66 is a realist. We all should take his advice.
- Jim Heaphy

[Will2Win]

How about that poll called... the "Manage-A-­Masterful-­Campaign-A­nd-Raise-A­-Record-Br­eaking-Amo­unt-Of-Con­tributions­-POLL?" Senator Clinton was in the national spotlight for more than 20 years! And professes to have all this political experience­... YET! Senator Obama, new to the national scene, was light years ahead of her at every turn in managing and raising money for his presidential campaign. Every time I heard Hillary's spin masters say... "Well, they out spent us!" I would think to myself... "We'll Duh!" She has a 20 year advantage in the public view... isn't that what he's suppose to do? And why is it he is outspending you? Shouldn't you be the one with the ability to manage and raise the necessary capital so you are never in the position to be outspent..­. by a candidate that you consider a "novice"? Shouldn't the roles have been reversed? That Poll speaks volumes to me.

[AdamND]

chuck todd said it the other day. When people drop out of the race or people feel that a candiate lost their poll numbers jump a bit and this explains these jumps.

[EgbertSouse]

Why is this even relevant?

Hillary is not in the general election.

Period. End of story.

The only option is for Clinton supporters to say I told you so...

Unless, you (Clinton supporters) abet the loss. Then, SHAME ON YOU!

[2ez]

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics­." Benjamin Disraeli

Replace statistics with polls and it still rings true!

Hillary, the Queen of Spin and a Legend in Her Own Mind!

http://klintons.com