Ickes At The Alamo: Clinton's Delegate Counter Warns Of Defections At DNC Meeting

The major dispute over the Florida and Michigan delegations to the Democratic convention in Denver has now boiled down to Hillary Clinton's demand for full seating with no sanctions, and an alternative proposal, likely to be backed by Obama, to seat the delegations with either half a vote granted to each delegate, or to cut each delegation in half.

The Clinton proposal -- which now faces tough, if not insurmountable, odds at the Saturday, May 31 meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) - would give the New York Senator 55 more delegates than would go to Obama.

The alternative of either halved votes or halved delegations would net Clinton only 20 or so delegates, depending on the details. Obama could afford to concede a 20-plus delegate gain to Clinton without endangering his overall delegate advantage.

Harold Ickes, Clinton's chief delegate hunter, warned that there may be some defections among the 13 RBC members who have endorsed Hillary. If Ickes and his allies cannot hold all their troops in line, a motion before the RBC to seat all 210 Florida and 156 Michigan delegates with a full vote each would face certain defeat.

If defeated at the RBC on Saturday, the Clinton forces are expected to file an appeal to the Democratic convention credentials committee and possibly, failing that, to the full convention.

One of the publicly unstated reasons that Clinton is remaining in the race is to be positioned to step in immediately in the increasingly unlikely event that damaging new material emerges about Obama. In such an event, retaining the right to force pre-nomination fights over credentials becomes crucial to a delaying strategy to allow any conceivable controversy to gain momentum.

Clinton won the January primaries in Florida and Michigan, but the national party has stripped the two states of all delegates in punishment for holding primaries before February 5 in violation of party rules.

On the RBC, there are a total of 28 voting members, along with two co-chairs who can vote only in the event of a tie. To win, then, Clinton needs at least 15 votes, or, if both co-chairs cast ballots, 16 votes.

Those numbers appear increasingly hard to reach, especially after Democratic National Committee lawyers issued a ruling earlier this week that the RBC does not have the power to fully reinstate the two disputed delegations. The Clinton forces contend that the DNC ruling is wrong.

Ickes argued that all is not lost as the RBC session fast approaches. One of the recognized experts in party rules, Ickes said a number of the RBC members have been misinformed about the rules governing the powers of the committee, and he intends to correct the situation before the votes are taken starting on Saturday afternoon.

Comments

[ntmessage]

Frankly, Obama and the DNC have flip-flopped more than Clinton did on the issue of the rules or the voters’ intent. Pelosi first said that the voters should decide and then reneged. So there is plenty of BS to go around about who is right. Obama deserves credit only for gaming a flawed system and claiming overwhelming victory in a close contest before the game was actually over.
She still won 8 out of the largest 10 states in the country representing 60% of the population. Only gaming the arcane DNC rules does Obama prevail. Everyone knows that in a more democratic system like the general, Clinton, would have clinched the nomination some time ago. Obama still has not sealed the deal.
Obama supporters think everything is a game and do not seem to understand or get Principle of Democracy that must be true regardless of ideology or politicians. Most people over 35 get that this is a principled stand, nothing else. Principles, something we can all learn from, even if the lessons are fleeting.

[TurnThePageGA]

You Clinton supporters continue to insult Obama supporters that we are all a bunch of children. FYI, I am a life-long 52 year old Democrat. Get it through your skull that over half of the people who participated in this process do not want her. Futhermore don't blame the Obama campaign for intelligently understanding the RULES of the primary process and intelligently crafting a campaign in accordance with the RULES. You accuse Obama supporters of being children when it is you who act like children who want your way in spite of the RULES. I have five children ages 19 to 31 and they weren't raised on your kind of principles.

[huffy2001]

No...over half WANTED her. You just don't want to count a bunch of them Right out of the Republican playbook.

I bet Rove, Baker and co. are rolling on the floor laughing at how stupid we all are.

[Waltb31]

Must be nice in your world; when you're losing, you just change the rules midstream, so presto! you're winning! Anybody that can argue such a bogus argument is irrelevant to the process.
It is over.

[Gracehoper]

Why even bother having the unimportant, small states vote? They're not important, right? Let's elect our president every 4 years by polling the 10 largest states. As a Californian, this sounds great to me! Actually, California is the most populous state, so must be the most important. Let's just poll California when we need to elect a president.

[huffy2001]

The thing is, most of the small states didn't vote...they caucused. It's hardly a democratic process when everyone around you knows your choice, shut ins, poor, elderly and the sick are excluded, and only those who can get off work at a certain time are allowed to express their opinions.

[rleroygordon]

Okay, lessee if'n I unnerstan this.

Hillary "won 8 out of the largest 10 states in the country representing 60% of the population" but is still trailing Obama by nearly 200 delegates, and more than 500,000 votes.

Yeah, I guess she really does have more of a chance of beating Zippy Jr. in November.

[cattletracks]

SMOKE AND MIRRORS! What is going on? Not only is Hillary trying to hoodwink 40% of us from Michigan out of our Noncommitted votes, but the rest here that didn't go to the polls because our vote "wouldn't count". "Count Every Vote" but ONLY IF YOU VOTED FOR HILLARY. Why has everyone seemed to have forgotten THE POPULAR VOTE MEANS NOTHING the way the game is set up. We'll just change the rules of the game if it doesn't fit our plan. How many of you would allow you children to play that way? More of the same Washington Politics. Enough is Enough! Hillary is indeed splitting the party and galvanizing her supporters against Obama's FOR WHAT? Her ego has gotten way out of control, not to mention Bill's. She is doing nothing but dragging this race on to argue her erroneous belief that she's ahead in the popular vote (she is not) -- a point she can only claim by leaving out some of the contests and adding in others that the voters were told would not count. I can tell you, the outcome in Michigan here would have been different had we been warned of this scenario. DO WE REALLY WANT HILLARY COUNTING ALL THOSE REPUBLICANS THAT CROSSED OVER AND VOTED FOR HER ONLY TO GET HER ON THE TICKET AS THEY EITHER WANTED TO PROLONG THE TURMOIL WITHIN OUR PARTY OR FELT SHE WOULD BE EASIER TO BEAT AGAINST MCCAIN? Please, people, don't buy into her lies!

[speechteach]

You have said precisely what I have been thinking since Pennsylvania! I just can't believe that so many Americans are so gullible that they buy into the Clinton arguments about changing the rules over and over, depending upon the Clintons' numbers. Her popular vote is flawed on two counts, the operation chaos Republican votes and the illegal MI and FL votes. What about the rest of us who played by the rules and live in a caucus state (who Hillary ignored)? What about the Obama supporters who didn't vote because they knew their votes wouldn't count? This is a joke! The worst part about this is that if Hillary doesn't get full seating (totally ignoring the rules), I have no doubt she will keep campaigning until the convention and wreck havoc there. Since Ickes has done this in past election years, to lead the Dems to defeat, he surely will do this again. The superdelegates and pledge delegates have to end this soon. I urge them and the people of Montana and South Dakota to vote for Obama so we can get on to the general election and have a chance to win there. Bill and Hillary Clinton want this election for themselves. Don't be fooled! Their egos know no bounds! Don't forget about all the lies they told while Bill was in office and how many lies they have told in this campaign alone.

[LeonBNJ]

One of the most important things that should happen is to repair the Presidential nomination procedures to prevent another such problem as we saw this year. Clearly Florida and Michigan wanted the attention and promises of those running for President of their respective very serious social and political situations.
I think there should be a Federal law so that any Presidential primary election or cacuese may not be held before March 15th or after June 7th. There must be protections that all procedures in each state meet civil rights standards, to make sure a cross-section of voters in a state are properly represneted and can participate. There should be required that among the first round of elections or cacuses include a medium sized state with a population that 'looks like America', with major urban areas and not mainly rural, with significant Black and Hispanic citizen populations.
I don't have any magic ideas on how to fix the current conterversey as to Florida and Michigan but clearly a balance must be achieved to allow for representation but not 'reward' for attempting to have early primaries.

[okmama]

I agree with you that they need to repair the procedures. Being a lifelong KS resident (until 3yrs ago). I can tell you that they do a very poor job of educating people on the caucus process. Democrates in KS have been disenfrachised for years, though it does seem that they are doing better since they have a Democratic govenor.

Truth is I believe the only real solution to this is closed primaries in all states. No open primaries where Repugs can interfer. No caucus that people do not understand or can't get into. No TX two-step. If they keep the delegate split in place I think it will then give a good cross section of the voters. I do like your March 15 to June 7th timeline. I think the voting started to early, and has lasted way to long. By shorting the timeline and bunching more states together....more (Super Tuesday's) every state becomes more important and every vote matters more.

[ResidentChimp]

Obama is too much an elitist and can't admit when he is wrong. The right thing to have done long ago would have been to seat the Delegates from both states. The the Supers could have went for Obama and it would have been all over. But the Dems are so incompetent that they have totally screwed themselves. It shouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure oout that Hillary's supporters are much closer to McCain than Obama. Pissing them off by denigrating Hillary and rubbibg her face in the dirt is not going to get Obama any votes.

[knighthowl]

I know that there is a village somewhere in Texas that is missing its idiot. Is there a zoo somewhere missing a chimp?

[CheneysACoward]

Actually two Chimps, the one at 1600 and the one here who loves the first soooooo much he named himself after his hero. Some people have low self esteme.

[huffy2001]

What...are you from Texas?

[Wolfwoman]

Closer to McCain? I disagree. It seems there is a fantasy in operation that if enough Clinton supporters will threaten to vote for McCain, it will bring the nomination to Hillary. Clinton has lost the nomination. Obama will get votes from Republicans. Did you see the news that former Bush donors are donating to Obama's campaign?

[tutmoo]

why one-half.why not 75.05 %

[LettuceB1]

"One of the publicly unstated reasons that Clinton is remaining in the race is to be positioned to step in immediately in the increasingly unlikely event that damaging new material emerges about Obama."

Don't forget the stated reason she's staying in..." we all know that Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June."

[huffy2001]

Give it a rest.

[Gracehoper]

Oh come on, you know Hillary fantasizes about it.

[Gayleann]

As a 60 year old black female raised in Berkeley, California. I started out in support of Hilary. I studied Clinton when he was running, and that was the last campaign I was interested in, until now. I got to know the Clinton’s well. I remember watching the whole Soldra?? incident when he scolded a young black woman in the music industry. We all dismissed his affairs, thought the women were sluts. I did the whole emotional ride. With this campaign, it was very early on when I started to feel how it feels to be on the “opposite side” of the Clinton’s. It’s being on this side (for Obama) that you begin to realize that they set a new high in saying and doing anything to win! Let me put it this way….. They go far out of bounds. Believe me when I say this as a black woman, they go way farther out of bounds than any republican I have seen in today’s politics. They can go toe to toe with the best of the racists Helms, Wallace, and the Duke! .

Now look at Obama, raised by a white mother. Today you will find very few Black men in his position married to a Black woman. His mother and her parents from Kansas raised him to show him who he is. And I might add that they made him proud. My hats off to them. For what ever reason, many Hilllary supporters just can’t see it.

[neocon666]

Well said.

[speechteach]

I only hope that this long procedure will affect more people like you, who have now seen how the Clinton's operate when things aren't going their way. I am an older white woman and I, too, supported Clinton while he was in office. I was embarrassed by his personal actions, but I supported him as President. In retrospect, however, I believe I was blind to his other actions. Now I see them more clearly, and it is not a pretty picture.

[shothot]

Gay, how about discussing the issues. I am a black man,but often times this "race stuff" is more than sickening, whether from blacks or whites. It's divisive, small minded, unproductive, and a sign that we are not fit to call ourselves human being. Know it or not, we're human beings first and the rest is garbage that we wallow in to validate our small lives. Last night I heard a black woman say, "they've had their chance, it's our turn". Our turn? When Obama used that phrase, he meant the democrats, people ready for change.
Yesterday, a white woman at the DNC meeting, and avid HRC supporter, let it be known that if Hillary doesn't get the nomination, McCain will. If it were possible to relocate these sickos to an island, at least until after the election, we might have a civil election. Obama is not about that small mindedness. He's as much black culturally as he is white ( for lack of better terms). Bully for him that he has the experience.
His platform is not based on race or the color of one's skin. How sad you people refuse to let go of your garbage and move on, because if you (we) don't, If there's hell below, we're all gonna go.

[elcojonu]

Divide both Delegations in Half.
Is the obvious so hard to recognize and carry out ?

[vshdst]

Clinton's braizen sence of entitlement is appauling, unethical and we should be beyond that as a nation. If the situation was reverse, Obama would have been run from the campaign in lightning speed. The MSM would be ruthless. The Clintons would be demanding he leave the campaign claiming he would be ruining the Democratic Party by remaining.
But she is being handled with kit gloves and being coddled. What a double standard.

[FlowerGirl]

Has been Hellary can get lost. She wouldn't bget my vote if she became the nominee now. And she won't at any time in the future.
She is spending money she doesn't have to do her party harm. That is much too much like our current government is doing for the nation.

[knighthowl]

Excellent point as to spending money we don't have to harm the nation. Couldn't agree more.

[kwon35]

Th SD are flooding to either one because some are up for re-election in their states, waiting to see what they can get from either one of them. Plus, the fact that the Clintons helped some of the SD get in the senate so they are afraid to get burn by the Clinton's or end up missing.

Someone asked if Obama was following the rules, why didn't he take his name off the FL ballot?
In fact, he tried but a REP of FL said it was too late. I voted for Hillary in GA but everyday I'm starting to see the true her. When you basically go on record to say people who are un-educated & make less than 50k vote for me! Those people are really un-educated to realize she just called them stupid, easily persuaded, and hanging on false promises. (Ohio, Penn, WV)

Never the less, Saturday will be a circus show and I believe this is what the Clintons was banking on.
Why did she leave her name on the MI ballot when all the others took theirs off? She signed a plead not to and is on record saying they need to be punished. ( back when she was winning ) Hillary Supporter can you really be this dishonest or " non-educated " to understand she is playing ya'll to destroy Obama to loose in Nov.

Let's put on our thinking Caps and see the bigger picture.

[LettuceB1]

The SD aren't flooding to Hillary because it would feed into her argument that people are trying to push her out. I think it's a good idea that they wait till June 4th. That way everything is over and then they can endorse Obama without Hillary saying they're being sexist. Lets not forget that Hillary doesn't want Obama to get ANY delegates for MI. The only ones who took their names off the ballot in MI were Obama and Edwards. Edwards endorsed Obama so wouldn't all the people who voted "uncommitted" go to Obama even if some of them had voted for Edwards anyway. I'm with you kwon35, I don't like they way she I'm seeing the true her either.

[rc1900]

Actually 4 people took their names off the ballot: Joe Biden, Barack Obama, John Edwards and Bill Richardson. Also, the 30,000 who wrote in their candidate of choice only to be told their vote doesn't/didn'tcount.

[midknightryder13]

Actually, that's not entirely true re: Florida. Florida state election law states that if a candidate's name DOESN'T appear on the ballot in the primary, then THEY CANNOT be on the ballot in the general election.

[NotMcCain]

I read that Ickes helped draft the rules that punished MI and FL for the early primaries.

Is it true? (I hope so, as it adds a new level of hypocrisy that I didn't think was even possible).

[jungfookid]

it's true.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/archive/2008/05/27/ickes-agonistes.aspx

"But the most intriguing performance will come from RBC member and Clinton delegate guru Harold Ickes, who voted last August to strip Florida of all its delegates but is now pushing to reinstate them."

[Jer1957]

I read that the GOP-controlled legislature set the date of the Fla Primary--and that neither Dem candidate campaigned there and record numbers of Dems turned out to vote nonetheless--mostly for Clinton.

The Billionaire's Club called the 'Democracy Alliance' led by George Soros and his silent partner Rupert Murdoch have put their money behind an Obama sure-loser nomination. That explains the position of Dean, Pelo$i and Reid.

And, yes, as author Edsall insightfully suggests there are devastating new revelations against Obama in the offing. That is why the free-trade Billionaire's Club loves Barack--and Dean, et al are in such a hurry to ram through an Obama nomination.

As a lifelong FDR Dem I would prefer that the devastating revelations about the Chicago pol Obama be aired before the Convention.

The nomination of the seriously compromised--perhaps blackmailed-- Obama will surely result in a McCain or worse presidency.

[going2ireland]

What are you blathering on about? Sounds like a lot of hoohaa!

[Rita1]

Suspending her campaign weeks ago would have netted Hillary the same outcome as all the drama of haggling with the RBC and Credentials Committee and trying to hurt Obama. With a suspended campaign, she would have remained in line, if Obama stumbled, to pick up the nomination without any need for the committee chaos strategy she has preferred and that has done so much damage.

[rc1900]

Everyone who was sitting at that table voted to punish MI and FL. So Ickes (sp) was for it before he was against it.

[7NoTrumpXX]

(CNN) May 29
Sen. Barack Obama showed he was willing to use bare-knuckle tactics during his first race in Chicago.

...seeking a state Senate seat on Chicago's gritty South Side in 1996, Obama effectively used election rules to eliminate his Democratic competition.

As a community organizer, he had helped register thousands of voters. But when it came time to run for office, he employed Chicago rules to invalidate the voting petition signatures of three of his challengers.

The move denied each of them, including incumbent Alice Palmer, a longtime Chicago activist, a place on the ballot. It cleared the way for Obama to run unopposed on the Democratic ticket in a heavily Democrat district.

"That was Chicago politics," said John Kass, a veteran Chicago Tribune columnist. "Knock out your opposition, challenge their petitions, destroy your enemy, right? It is how Barack Obama destroyed his enemies back in 1996 that conflicts with his message today. But in that first race, he made sure voters had just one choice."

"He came from Chicago politics," Stewart said. "Politics ain't beanbag, as they say in Chicago. You play with your elbows up, and you're pretty tough and ruthless when you have to be. Sen. Obama felt that's what was necessary at the time, that's what he did. Does it fit in with the rhetoric now? Perhaps not." (CNN close)


Polling data: Obama wins 246 EV and LOSES. Hillary wins Ohio, WV, KY, Arkansas, and Florida and 312 EV and the Presidency.

[UrsaMajority]

I don't know the details of the the event 12 years ago, but it sounds like he employed the rules, as harsh as they may have been. Clinton wishes to evade the rules that she and her people helped draft. So, your point is?

And your "polling data" is? Right now, RCP Average has him 9 points up on her nationally, and climbing.

[pupbayer]

Check out the other polls at RCP.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

[shothot]

So?

[Glacial]

PROTIP: The election's in November.

Also, McCain's going to lose.

[Juneau1]

Good; thanks for the info! I'm glad to see that Obama knows how to play tough BUT BY THE RULES!

[Gracehoper]

The most recent polling data I've seen puts Obama at almost 300 electoral votes. Obviously, it's too far out from the actual election to matter much-- I just wanted to point out how wrong you are.

[Rosey]

Dear Harold Ickes,
Interesting that you back Hillary when she and Bill were so nasty to you.....
But really.... can you not seeing the writing on the wall? Enough already. I am SICK SICK SICK of seeing these arguments. Hillary ran a good campaign and she lost. But unlike anyone else, her ego is too big to let her accept defeat gracefully. CAN YOU NOT SEE THIS IS ONLY CREATING FODDER FOR THE FREAKS ON THE RIGHT?
We Democrats need to be united!!!! Not so divisive as the Clinton camp is continuing to make this election. This is sooooo SAD!

[BlueOnBlue]

Starting tomorrow, I understand Webster's is replacing the word "icky" with Ickes. Same meaning: offensive to the senses or sensibilities.