Ickes At The Alamo: Clinton's Delegate Counter Warns Of Defections At DNC Meeting

The major dispute over the Florida and Michigan delegations to the Democratic convention in Denver has now boiled down to Hillary Clinton's demand for full seating with no sanctions, and an alternative proposal, likely to be backed by Obama, to seat the delegations with either half a vote granted to each delegate, or to cut each delegation in half.

The Clinton proposal -- which now faces tough, if not insurmountable, odds at the Saturday, May 31 meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) - would give the New York Senator 55 more delegates than would go to Obama.

The alternative of either halved votes or halved delegations would net Clinton only 20 or so delegates, depending on the details. Obama could afford to concede a 20-plus delegate gain to Clinton without endangering his overall delegate advantage.

Harold Ickes, Clinton's chief delegate hunter, warned that there may be some defections among the 13 RBC members who have endorsed Hillary. If Ickes and his allies cannot hold all their troops in line, a motion before the RBC to seat all 210 Florida and 156 Michigan delegates with a full vote each would face certain defeat.

If defeated at the RBC on Saturday, the Clinton forces are expected to file an appeal to the Democratic convention credentials committee and possibly, failing that, to the full convention.

One of the publicly unstated reasons that Clinton is remaining in the race is to be positioned to step in immediately in the increasingly unlikely event that damaging new material emerges about Obama. In such an event, retaining the right to force pre-nomination fights over credentials becomes crucial to a delaying strategy to allow any conceivable controversy to gain momentum.

Clinton won the January primaries in Florida and Michigan, but the national party has stripped the two states of all delegates in punishment for holding primaries before February 5 in violation of party rules.

On the RBC, there are a total of 28 voting members, along with two co-chairs who can vote only in the event of a tie. To win, then, Clinton needs at least 15 votes, or, if both co-chairs cast ballots, 16 votes.

Those numbers appear increasingly hard to reach, especially after Democratic National Committee lawyers issued a ruling earlier this week that the RBC does not have the power to fully reinstate the two disputed delegations. The Clinton forces contend that the DNC ruling is wrong.

Ickes argued that all is not lost as the RBC session fast approaches. One of the recognized experts in party rules, Ickes said a number of the RBC members have been misinformed about the rules governing the powers of the committee, and he intends to correct the situation before the votes are taken starting on Saturday afternoon.

Comments

[Shelly1970]

I frequently play board games with friends. Last I checked, if the loser were to argue tooth and nail that the rules should be changed at the end of the game such that the loser becomes the winner, he or she would not be called a "fighter", but a "sore loser". I must admit, it's amazing how the Clintons can spin an issue and, not only get people to go along, but manipulate them into aggressively pushing their agenda. Sounds a little like what Scott Mclellan has been pointing out lately about another spinster we know. I understand the importance of persuasion, but the outright warping of reality is an entirely different matter.

[SeekerOne]

Well said!

[JimR]

I, for one, welcome the new Clinton math. The Patriots had 22 first downs in the Super Bowl, the Giants 17. According to her math, my Patriots won the Super Bowl!

[Grunty1]

Good luck convincing your bookie

[Burrito]

To all Hillary and Obama supporters :

I am convinced that several of the post made here are made by Republican trolls with the aim at causing division and animosity within the party ... Why do I say this ?? Because of the racial and gender undertones that these posts have ... they all start : "I am an African-American ..." or "I am a white woman ..." or similar ... I believe that these posts are geared to further divide the Democratic party ...

I recommend that you ignore these posts and don't waste your time by answering to them ... at the end, the Democratic Party will unite against John McCain ...

[obamagal]

Hmmmm, good points.

[AUNTIEDAWN415]

Unfortunately what you call "trolls" are really other Democrats who support Hillary and try to get their voices heard in this sea of Obama supporters. Granted there could be trolls but I know when I try to state my opinion and what I beleive in I am usually attacked as either being stupid or drinking Clinton kool aid. When we were all fighting against the radical right wing we were united but no that we have different views about our perspective candidates somehow we are now the enemy. Please don't forget you will need people like myself if Obama is the nominee .

[GeorgeP922]

GOP Concern trolling is in full effect at mydd.com

ignore them and call them out as such. With a nominee it should be easy to decipher who is who

[wm1066]

I think the Democratic party is uniting against the Clintons!

[Lonestarmom]

It is not a defection....they are on the rules committee and are supposed to uphold the rules of the Democratic Party....this is not about Clinton or Obama...it is about MI and FL and playing by the rules. As a democrat I look to the RBC to have the backbone to make a decision based on the rules they agreed to long before the first primary took place. Clinton and her supporters are being very divisive with their language and need to remember that this is the Democratic Party and stop trying to destroy it! If you want to change the rules then run for committees in Denver and change them for next time. But you don't change the rules midstream to appease the losing side...imagine a Super Bowl where after half-time the losing side got the rules ammended that they should get a touchdown for everytime they passed the 50 yard line but the winning team should play by the set rules!

[JimR]

Even the Republicans penalized MI and FL, by stripping them of half their delegates.

I'm sorry the voters got screwed by their legislatures, but I don't think those states should get a free pass.

[PKSSK]

Harold Ickes needs to wake up and stop being the Clinton's garbage man and do the right thing for the party and the nation. Tell the Clinton's that it's over!!! Read the NYTimes article, Bill Clinton's garbage man, September 1997, found in the Harold M. Ickes wikepedia biography.

[basta]

go home Hillary.

[mellene]

If Clinton takes this to the convention, she and Bill will go down in history as ruining the democratic party. I hope they have a broader view for themselves in the history books. While I know I'd vote democratic, I'm not sure at all that I can stomach have her in the White House after all of these stunts that have pulled. I've become totally disgusted with politics as usual and have lost respect for almost all politicians at this point. Americans need to take control of how the country is run (right into the ground) but this may be unlikely to happen any time soon.

[suzyhein]

no "if". she's going to Denver.

[ChartWizard]

I thought this way for a long time too . . . that Clinton would damage the party by staying in until the convention. But now I don't think so. I think she will be roundly marginalized well before then, if necessary.

Many of her most ardent supporters now clearly see how petulant and selfish she is . . . how she and Bill are willing to say and do anything for power . . . even "re-write" rules she agreed to in writing if that gives her ANY desperate chance to "win."

I think that without any intention of doing so, Clinton has turned away many of her supporters. They are fair-minded people, not cultists. Same would be true if Obama had been such a poor loser for months. Give all the voters a chance to pick and on June 4th, the nominee will be clear. No more excuses, no more moving the goal-posts. It will be over. And I believe the Democratic Party leaders -- one of them also a woman so try claiming sexism there -- will slam Clinton back in line if she tries dividing the Convention. The stakes are too high now and her politics of the past just won't cut it.

[olivia]

After June 3 I believe the only reasonable approach to this is to completely ignore the Clintons.

They've dug their graves politically and ruined his legacy, and if they want to dig deeper, let them.

There is a general election around the corner and much work to be done. Let's help Obama.

[Grannysue]

OMG Obama played by the rules and has more votes and delegates, Hillary changes the rules and doesn't get enough votes or delegates and it's OBAMA'S fault. I think this is kind of like the movie with Tom Cruise as that agent that rips his mask off and it's someone else underneath. Come on Hillary, take off the mask, is that really Dick Cheney under there?

[leftoflennon]

Its all over Hillary...

U CANNOT beat Barack when it comes to RULES !

[ibsteve2u]

"The Clinton forces contend that the DNC ruling is wrong."

Although I despise what Bill Clinton did in the free trade arena, this is pretty much the biggest threat that the Clintons represent: More of the George Bush mindset that believes that they alone can interpret rules and, when they disagree, willfully disobey them.

George Bush didn't stop at the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.

And now you have Hillary displaying precisely the same behavior and all but screaming that she, too, would run an Imperial Presidency.

[CommonSensePlease]

I am fed up of the Bush-like Clintons! Period.

[gigi09]

I concur with your blog. In fact I was thinking the same ...that the behavior of the Clintons and their supporters is downright brutal and it will destroy the Democratic Party. The hatred the we feel for Hillary at this time is really getting to me for I feel that we are being held hostage, while they come up with other tricks. The Clinton are devious and to have her as president is frightening. I really believe that her main goal is to make SURE that Obama doesn't win regardless to the damage done to the party. With the economy in the shape that its in and to spend so much time dealing with devils is scary...If Hillary steals this by breaking and changing rules...I cannot for the life of me vote for her. So we may have to get ready for four more years of Bush. I wish she would just CRAWL BACK UNDER THE ROCK THAT SHE CAME FROM UNDER...

[Maddlizz]

Your hatred for Clinton pales in comparison my hatred of the intolerant vicious Obama supporters. Like you will never vote for Clinton, I will never vote for Obama. I don't want a cult leader as President of the United States.

[obamagal]

I agree, and as well, with what you wrote, gigi09. I still think I'd vote for her but boy, what a horrible, unthinkable choice it would be to make. I shudder to think of it.

[DWP]

The rules were established before Michigan decided to go ahead and conduct their primary early. They refused to play by the rules. Seating half their delegates is generous. The Florida people have a better argument because they did not decide their own schedule. Perhaps, they should be treated differently and get more delegates. But the math is still not there for the Clintons. They should put the party first. It does seem as if the Clintons want to go all the way to the convention and damage Obama and the party so much that the democrats will lose the general election and she can run in 2012. I am not sure she has not already done this.

[CuriousPerson]

Do you really think she'll have a chance in 2012?

[M.S. Bellows, Jr. - Huffpost Blogger]

Question is whether she thinks she has a chance. I sure don't.

[starboymikey]

Do you really think she'll have a chance in 2012?
_________________________________________________

About as much of a chance as that space alien video (that will supposedly be released today) has of being genuine.

[PKSSK]

Harold M. Ickes is the only one who can save the Clinton's from themselves and save himself at the same time. There is a great article in Mr. Ickes wikepedia biography that describes Mr. Ickes relationship with his father, who he is very much like, and the man who took advantage of him. The article is from the NY Times, titled Bill Clinton's Garbage Man, September 1997. Fascinating read for anyone interested.

[jdkjdk]

Before this is over we might even see Clinton running as a "New Democrat".

In that case, we can only hope that she'll only run in swath from from TX/OK to OH/WV (Southern/Ozark/Applachian strategy) plus MI, FL and NY. Of course, then a guy like Bloomberg would get in and this thing is in the House. But maybe a more parliamentary like choice of President would makes sense and was what the founders actually thought would be the norm.

Given that there remain so many Democrats who some how think that Obama needs a VP like Nunn or Webb or Clark (based upon a ridiculous belief that a Southern/Ozark/Appalchian strategy makes any sense), maybe it is time for Clinton and the rest to start their own party. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

It time for the Clintonistas to decide which side they are on.

[demfriend]

When all of the "reasons" and the "who did this to me" are gone for Hillary she will be left with the true reason why she has not won the nomination...herself. She declared herself the nominee long before the first vote and with the sense of entitlement she had she and Bill have banked on her winning so they could rule washington and the white house one more time. No doubt there have been backroom deals and promises made to big business and others to be given out once she won as that is how they "ruled" before. All of this very "old style" politics as Johnnie Mac is doing the very same thing on the republican side. With Hillary good friends with the far right people she blamed for the slime when Bill got caught with Monica she as the direct line into what they plan for Obama and so she has known about the most current "preacher" problem. Why else would she keep in the race "just in case" something happens to Obama? The assassonation mention brings up something deep and dark that she must think of.

[balkanboy]

Two questions we never heard Obama discuss -
A - Rising gas prices (his daddy got a gas station or what?)
B - How he feels about Affirmative Action - and how far is he going to take it?
He talks a great talk, but only in generalities. Shall we see him walk the walk?

[WMichaelTenery]

"A - Rising gas prices (his daddy got a gas station or what?)"

His "daddy" is dead and has been for most of Obama's life. Your insulation is offensive.

"B - How he feels about Affirmative Action - and how far is he going to take it?"

That is the Clinton/McCain political dream. Obama talking about affirmative action. He would be stupid to go farther than he already did which is acknowledge as he did in his race speech that affirmative action has hurt among under underprivileged whites.

He is not running the "racist victim" campaign. That's Hillary and her everyone's sexist theme.

[obamagal]

Try educating yourself.

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/
http://factcheck.barackobama.com/

Do please come back to us when you can join in with a meaningful observation.

Thanks.

[M.S. Bellows, Jr. - Huffpost Blogger]

Um... check out his website for a change. He's got a whole slew of detailed policy statements on all these issues. If you click all the links for more detailed versions you'll wind up printing a few hundred pages, just on these topics alone. So please stop spreading false claims about him not having policy details; he's a freaking wonk, is what he is, and it's all out there to read if you'll just bother to do so. www.barackobama.com

[Susanfrom29]

Then you haven't been listening.

[JimR]

You haven't been paying attention. IF you are really interested in his views on this, check out:

www.barackobama.com/issues

[kevinmcd]

THe media does a disservice when it reports that Florida and Michigan were "stripped" of their delegates because of party rules. THis makes it sound high technical and as if it was decided after the elections. But it was well known before the election that the votes would not count. The media also most often fails to state in the reports on this issue that Clinton agreed before the elections that the delegates would not count and that she only changed her mind when she realized she needed the votes. I have noticed for a long time that the MSM has been doing this but I expected a better analyses from Huff Post.. Many people who are not that into politics are probably reading these distorted media accounts which only foster Clinton's false argument of injustice.

[highlyamused]

They also fail to mention that the high turn out could have been due to other issues on the ballot that day.

[obamagal]

... and that so many civic-minded citizens knew it wouldn't count, so just stayed home.

[oscarp]

oh yes, that is the dumbest excuse I have ever read here! Now what? they were giving 1000 dollars to every floridian who showed up to vote?

[MarkieBee]

exactly...you think it's a coincidence that in Colorado they'll have an anti-gay marriage initiative on the ballot too? The Repugnantcans will be ramping that strategy up in all the purple states to try and drive voter turnout...otherwise a lot of Repugnantcans just won;t bother to vote because McCain leaves them feeling cold at best.

[WMichaelTenery]

The turn out was not that high. Especially compared to other states. It was quite low in Michigan and only respectable in FL. Definitely not historic.

[Saturdayboy]

Thanks for saying this. Hillary was against Florida and Michigan before she was for them.

[ChiGuy]

In early '03, I e-mailed Hillary begging her to run for POTUS in '04.
She would have beaten the entire field of challengers including Kerry, gone on to trounce Bush, and be running for her second term right now.

I have tried over, and over again to be civil about this, but frankly, I am so sick of her that don't care if Hillary ever serves another day in government.

[Cunningham]

If I never had to hear the name Clinton after 2008, I would be extremely happy.

[obamagal]

Can I join the chorus?