Ickes At The Alamo: Clinton's Delegate Counter Warns Of Defections At DNC Meeting

The major dispute over the Florida and Michigan delegations to the Democratic convention in Denver has now boiled down to Hillary Clinton's demand for full seating with no sanctions, and an alternative proposal, likely to be backed by Obama, to seat the delegations with either half a vote granted to each delegate, or to cut each delegation in half.

The Clinton proposal -- which now faces tough, if not insurmountable, odds at the Saturday, May 31 meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) - would give the New York Senator 55 more delegates than would go to Obama.

The alternative of either halved votes or halved delegations would net Clinton only 20 or so delegates, depending on the details. Obama could afford to concede a 20-plus delegate gain to Clinton without endangering his overall delegate advantage.

Harold Ickes, Clinton's chief delegate hunter, warned that there may be some defections among the 13 RBC members who have endorsed Hillary. If Ickes and his allies cannot hold all their troops in line, a motion before the RBC to seat all 210 Florida and 156 Michigan delegates with a full vote each would face certain defeat.

If defeated at the RBC on Saturday, the Clinton forces are expected to file an appeal to the Democratic convention credentials committee and possibly, failing that, to the full convention.

One of the publicly unstated reasons that Clinton is remaining in the race is to be positioned to step in immediately in the increasingly unlikely event that damaging new material emerges about Obama. In such an event, retaining the right to force pre-nomination fights over credentials becomes crucial to a delaying strategy to allow any conceivable controversy to gain momentum.

Clinton won the January primaries in Florida and Michigan, but the national party has stripped the two states of all delegates in punishment for holding primaries before February 5 in violation of party rules.

On the RBC, there are a total of 28 voting members, along with two co-chairs who can vote only in the event of a tie. To win, then, Clinton needs at least 15 votes, or, if both co-chairs cast ballots, 16 votes.

Those numbers appear increasingly hard to reach, especially after Democratic National Committee lawyers issued a ruling earlier this week that the RBC does not have the power to fully reinstate the two disputed delegations. The Clinton forces contend that the DNC ruling is wrong.

Ickes argued that all is not lost as the RBC session fast approaches. One of the recognized experts in party rules, Ickes said a number of the RBC members have been misinformed about the rules governing the powers of the committee, and he intends to correct the situation before the votes are taken starting on Saturday afternoon.

Comments

[fourex]

"Clinton won the January primaries in Florida and Michigan, ..."

No she didn't. She pledged not to run or acknowledge their votes.

[mairs]

Clinton HAS to win. She can't disappoint Mellon Scaife, Murdoch, and the King of Dubai, apparently. There is too much loot riding on this for her and Bill. Imagine the riches headed their way if they can pull this off. Who cares about destroying the party when the payoff is potentially so fantastic?

[obamagal]

I think a great deal of her desperation is because of the law suit hanging over her head.... It's lucky, isn't it, that the Judge had been benched by none other than Bill Clinton when he was POTUS. Hillary doesn't have to "face the music" until this process we're in has finished.

.... hmmm....

[WretchedEtcher]

I dunno Obamagal. According to the ole Wiki sounds like the lawsuit is not much of a threat.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_v._Clinton

I think it is ego, power lust, and a sense of entitlement that keeps her going. Part of that "win at all cost" mentality.

[Cunningham]

Please, do defect. The DLC should separate from the Democratic Party as it is really a republican organization.

You won't be missed.

[iLogos]

As troubling as the cheating would be... let's put this into perspective. If Sen. Clinton had Florida and Michigan instated as votes were cast AND wins 100% of the last three primaries, she still can't pull ahead of Sen. Obama in pledged delegates.

Wait... it gets WORSE!!!

Even with all of that she still needs more than 77% of the super delegates to vote for her to prevent Sen. Obama to win, and 82% for HER to win.

This is completely unrealistic.

[findingthetruth]

So think about it! Aside this REVELATION (which even her supporters are aware of this) --- what could Hillary possibly be wishing? Scary ---isn't it?

[suzyhein]

this whole thing is just an act so she can appeal the decision and take it to the convention. wake up people.

[oogabooga]

I'm just trying to figure out why Hillary's camp thinkx they can change the rules in the last inning of the game so they can come from behind and win? Obama played by the rules and won fair and square. Game's over Clintonites.

[donnajane]

Hillary is the lizzie borden of the dem party....lizzie borden took an axe....

[WFV]

For all the posters who have something to say today about the 'Chicago Way' of politics, have a seat.

You're going to see something tomorrow that trumps anything coming out of the Windy City: Harold Ickes. He is the ultimate insider - he helped write the rules, so he can certainly bend the hell out of them. Harold is Hillary's ace in the hole.

If they can pull off a big one tomorrow, it is a sign the Clintons still hold sway in the Democratic party. If they are defeated and forced to compromise, we will see the big fade I have been predicting for weeks now. Should be very interesting.

[obamagal]

Just like all the other times, huh?

Fear tactics, threats.... desperate measures for desperate people.

I'm going to put my faith in Barack's campaign being ahead of the game. Ickes may try - and I have no doubt he will - but I will also put my faith in those on the committee, and more importantly, the super delegates which have not yet endorsed, that they believe in the rules of law, and respect the dignity and integrity Barack has demonstrated throughout this 'joke' of a race.

Oh, I forgot. If you go to www.barackobama.com, you can read about the two Texas super delegates that announced their support of Barack first thing this morning. *41 to go*.

[jdkjdk]

I'm just saying that Obama's people have to be ready for a battle that is more "legal/parliamentary/procedural" than "political".

O's a reasonable, rationale and honorable fellow. But we are dealing with unreasonable, irrational and tenacious opponent in Clinton. So rationale decision theory will not predict what they are willing to do. As such, Mutually Assured Destruction is not a deterrent to Clinton.

[jdkjdk]

Obama's people need to be very careful of this kind of snooker:

Delegates get seated (so they can vote on platform and VP and other procedural matters), but don't get right to vote or to have full vote (i.e. they get a half vote) on first Pres. Nom ballot.

This sounds reasonable but probably isn't because
1. It arguably shifts the number needed to get Nomination out of reach for anybody on the first ballot; i.e. you need 50% +1 of "the delegates" not 50% +1 of "the counted votes". If they are "delegates" then the are "delegates" regardless of their voting status.

2. It would also give the Clinton delegates a chance to vote on credentials challenges.

[OhioJan]

SO, AGAIN, this is PROOF POSITIVE that clinton & her minions are CHEATING, HOLDING UP THE RESOLUTION of the FL/MI fiasco (brought on BY the clinton campaign), doing "ANYTHING TO WIN", and NOT Barack Obama - as they claim EVERY SINGLE DAY!!! Good luck with THIS "candidate", clintonobots!!! She's going to throw YOU ALL under the bus after she gets her spoiled bratty juvenile way! Then, you can ALL sit back on November 4th & watch either John McBUSH or Bob Barr waltz inton the White House in January '09!!! Good going, clintonobots!!! You'll get what you wished for : 4 MORE YEARS OF BUSH!!!

[obamagal]

Well said.

[ScandalousCandice]

This is ridiculous. She singed a contract with the DNC agreeing to the punishment of seating these delegates there should be no fucking way she is allowed to contest any decision the the RBC comes up with. And the fact that she is threatening this should have the Super Delegates coming out in droves to stop her. I simply don't understand why anyone who is anyone is allowing her to get away with. This is what the 4th threat from her camp? Threatening to withhold money from the DNC, threatening protests of women for sexism and protests from her supporters, suing caucus states like Texas, and now this with Florida and Michigan. How is she still a member of the democratic party? She agreed to all of the rules even Terry McAullife her main cronie, talked about a book about punishing Florida and Michigan and is now added double meaning to his words. It's so messed up and I hope Clinton loses everything for these tactics. I hope she loses her seat in the senate or something awful happens to her career. She deserves it for her selfish and destructive campaign.

[Chapmanp2]

Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop...

[flydoghead]

which is it ? Flip or Flop ?

[111]

HRC = flop

[Gericault]

The real irony here is that Florida and Michigan could have really played a part had they run their primaries at a later date. They pushed them ahead vying for relevancy but got disqualified in the process. To reward them for their mistake is disingenous at best.

Hillary is going to have to run as an independant and ruin the whole Democratic partys chances for the presidency.

Side note; had an eighty plus year old woman come into my store the other day wearing an Obama button. I asked"I thought older woman were supporting Hillary". With a twinkle in her eye and without missing a beat she replied," I'm educated."

[obamagal]

[obamagal]

I'll try again:

With a twinkle in her eye and without missing a beat she replied," I'm educated."

Made my day and put a huge smile on my face. Thanks.

[uffdacyd]

I'm educated. LOL! That made my day. I had a similiar experience the other day with an eighty plus year old woman. I saw her get into car with an Obama "08 bumper sticker. I remarked I liked it. She told me she was tired of being told to vote for HRC because she's a woman. This woman remarked she was a "Smart Woman" and had a brain so that was why she was voting the way she was.

[obamagal]

There are a lot of us out there... it doesn't make the news though...

[oscarp]

Gericault, what card are you playing? I am educated and support Hillary

[kathyhussien]

Throughout this Democratic campaign I have notice several things that helped me make a decision as to who I would like as President of the United States. One issue that stood out was the issue of divisive politics. I looked back at the fight that took place when Bill Clinton was in office over health care. Hillary’s refusal to accept any input from democrats or republicans spoke volumes; her determination to do it her way was paramount. If someone disagreed with her plan she sought to destroy their ideas. This kind of attitudes soon divides people; you are either with her or against her. Then I notice this same tactic being used in this campaign to divide democrats you were either with her or against her. Anyone who stood in her way was attacked and ridiculed. It brings to mind her ridicule of Senator Obama about “the heaven will open up and celestial being will descend and all will be right.” In Senator Clinton’s world it has to be her or nothing, anyone who goes against that will have hell to pay; including all democrats who voted against her, thus giving us President McCain.

[fedupwithpolitics]

In that way she is a clone--not of Bush--but of Dick "take no prisoners" Cheney.

[highlyamused]

"the heaven will open up and celestial being will descend and all will be right."

Those were the words I thought of as I read the Clinton condemnation of what the pastor of Obama's church said recently. Again, it's always ok for Hillary to say and do whatever she pleases.....but she doesn't afford anyone else the same right.

[flydoghead]

highlyamused, you nailed it.

When Hillary mocked Obama with her, "the heavens will open up"

remarks I was deeply offended. She lost me for good at that moment.

[obamagal]

Does it not sound like another pResident we know? Hmmm.... which came first, the chicken or the egg, the horse or the carriage....

The Bush Crime Family, and the Clinton Machine. Two DyNASTY's. Surely there are not just 4 Americans who have the qualifications to be POTUS. Ya think?

[kathyhussien]

John McCain and Hillary Clinton represent a past era of political partisan that has kept this country divided. But corporate American needs one of these individuals in office, to continue down this road to true fascism. Additionally, the military war machine and the Bush administration needs this as well. I remember when Clinton took office after HW Bush, he refused to go after those in the HW Bush‘s administration who should have gone to jail for the crimes they committed. This administration will not stand before this country for the crimes they have committed, if Hillary or McCain are in office. I remember Clinton saying it takes a Clinton to clean-up after a Bush, but the clean-up her husband did was to sweep it under the rug, so to speak. It puzzled me as to why the republicans and Hillary were campaigning so hard to insure Obama does not get in to office. They have both used Rovian tactics, and Hillary has resorted to quoting Rove’s analysis of the race. Does anyone doesn’t find this a bit odd that the Republican machine and one of the democratic candidates have joined forces to eliminate another democratic candidate, why is that? Hillary has gone so far as to campaign for the republican nominee. Yes she is a fighter, but if the issue is not one of hers, forget about fighting, it ain’t going to happen.

[flydoghead]

thank you kathy, well said

[obamagal]

Agreed, in fact, I agree with Kathy, nerve, Gericault, highlyamused and you, flydog.... and still there is that percentage of the population that see none of it, so powerful is their *need* to see *their gal* get in.

.... get out of the emotion and use the brain you were given, folks.

[Gericault]

I was afraid to post the same theories feeling that they were a little too"conspiracy theorist" but I totally agree.

Obama = Change

[neve]

Agreed. Although HRC has used the "race" as a wedge, Pastor Pfleger notwithstanding, her true sense of entitlement in my opinion is preserving entrenched political/corporate/military industrial power. She doesnt care about those hard working white appalacian folks anymore than Bush does.

[highlyamused]

Oh I've more than thought about it..........I'm convinced of it. She's as right winged as they come.

[tellinya]

The Clintons cannot quit even if they wanted to. Who gives 700 million dollars and not expect something in return. She was up 30 points in the polls and all the Donors/Investors placed their bets and now they wont let them quit in a democratic year. They also know that Dems dont like losers so this is her last chance unless shes promiing them 2012.
700 million dollars buys alotta political clout.
But this is Hillary. Remember how she stabbed Kerry in the back? Always selling out due to promises of cash to folks once theyre in power again.
Shes the one thats boxed in.

[eej]

I fear you are right. She owes favors. That's one more reason we cannot let her back in the White House.

[AliHajiSheik]

The ultra wealthy clinton donors like Iscoll, et al were promised plush ambassador roles in places like France, England, Switzerland, Japan and Italy. They want what they're "owed".

[flydoghead]

I have been thinking the same thing.

She was the candidate of the powers that be, she can't give up, too much invested in maintaining the

status quo.

It is really unthinkable that the old school game of money and power could be overturned by

such a ridiculous notions as hope and real change.

[Levittown]

If all the votes from Florida are not counted the Republicans can take the credit for dividing and undermining the Democrats unity. Do they beat us again because they want it more or we want it less ? For seven years we have played catch - up with them. just like the administratiion playing catch - up with he enemy in Iraq, the Iraqi people.

[obamagal]

There's potentially much logic in what you say.

This may be, in part, why she has frequently said one thing (for eg. *if I don't win 'fill in the blanks', I'll pull out*, or *I won't do anything to embarrass the superdelegates*, or *I won't play dirty* but then she does anyway.

It begs one to sit back and seriously consider how much blackmail, favors being called, quid pro quo is going on in the background.... "you can't quit or....".

Sobering thoughts, huh?

[furryone]

One of the publicly unstated reasons that Clinton is remaining in the race is to be positioned to step in immediately in the increasingly unlikely event that damaging new material emerges about Obama.

or...she is staying in the race in case one of her KKK constiuents succeeds in assassinating Obama in June....whichever scenario is fine by her...

[speechteach]

Or to avoid having to face the Paul v. Clinton case in California. Did I read somewhere that the judge has delayed things until after the Nov. election? If she doesn't win, will she and her husband have to testify?

[obamagal]

Oh yes indeed, you did read that.... and what's more, guess who the Judge was that made that ruling?

He was appointed to the Bench by none other that Bill Clinton. Can anyone say collusion?

[seenitall]

and I thought the republicans employed the worst kind of politics....this is infuriating.