Obama Doing Better Among Hispanics Than Kerry In 2004

One of the key constituencies to watch in the general election will be Hispanic voters. The Republican Party made a mess of its relationship to this group after taking a hard-line stance on immigration reform one year ago. But Barack Obama also has had his troubles recruiting Hispanics, due both to Hillary Clinton's popularity and, to a lesser extent, racial concerns.

While conventional wisdom holds that John McCain, a border state Senator, could make inroads among Hispanic voters, a new tracking poll shows that, historically, Obama is in a very strong position.

A Gallup Study released today shows that in a hypothetical general election match up Hispanics break by a greater than two-to-one margin for the Illinois Democrat: 62 percent to McCain's 29 percent.

To put that in context, in 2004, Hispanics favored Sen. John Kerry over President Bush by a margin of 59 to 40, meaning that Obama is already ahead of his Democratic predecessor. This, of course, is a welcome development for a candidate hoping to win Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, states with large Hispanic communities.

"The narrative that Obama is weak and McCain is strong among Latinos is simply not reinforced by the Gallup numbers," wrote Andres Ramirez, of the NDN, a progressive think tank. "Also, it is clear that McCain has been unable to differentiate and/or distinguish himself from the Latino community's negative view of the GOP. If these trends continue, this will make the five heavily Hispanic states of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida much more democratic - a shift that, alone, could give Barack Obama the presidency."

There are, to be sure, areas where Obama can improve his standing among Hispanic voters. In the 2006 congressional elections, for instance, the Democratic Party on a national level won 70 percent of the groups vote. Moreover, there is heavy indication that McCain's camp thinks they can woo these voters as the election progresses.

"There are some non-Republican Hispanic leaders who aren't looking at us right now because they are supporting Sen. Clinton," said McCain adviser Charlie Black. "If they become freed up, we're going to talk to them."

But at this point in time, the Hispanic community may not poise the major political obstacle for Obama that was once believed. As Gallup concludes:

"Obama did not fare well against Hillary Clinton among Hispanics in the 2008 primaries, but the early indications are that he will do well among this increasingly Democratic group in the general election."

Comments

[joeyp404]

But how is he doing with the bitter and resentful white folk?

[PatrickforO]

We need to face the fact that about 20% of voters will not support a bi-racial candidate. This is because of ignorance, plain and simple. As Dickens wrote in A Christmas Carol, "This boy is Ignorance, and this girl is Want. Beware them both, and all of their degree, but most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom, unless the writing be erased."

[jrterrier]

perhaps after bush, voters don't want to take a chance on another untested guy who can read a teleprompter well

[SanityClaus]

They're still clinging to Hillary. For now.

[nonofyabusiness]

and clinging to sanity by a hair....

[mybostonjack]

¡Si se puede!

[GeorgeGlass]

"Si, se puede!" actually translates as, "Yes, it is possible!" Not "Yes, we can!"

"Si, podemos!" is "Yes, we can!"

Close enough!

[mhopgood123]

It really doesn't matter-they are the same idea.

[catfood]

McCain's stance on immigration last year is one of the only actual instances in recent memory when he wasn't in lockstep with the rest of his party. I am certain Hispanic voters realize that as was the case with all his other alleged principals, he will flip-flop in a heartbeat if he thinks it will help him in November.

[Mitchell4A]

This is one of many serious mistakes that the Republicans are making this time around, that is, wrong assumptions about the Hispanic vote. Among a (baker's) dozen reasons for why McCain will not win:

3. The Last War Syndrome. McCain and the operatives running his campaign are like generals fighting the last war. They are still convinced that negative advertising will be as successful against Obama as it was against Kerry. However, “The Times They are A-Changin.­” And this leads to the next factor.

4. The Change Factor: Hillary tried experience, but this race is about change and the future. McCain appears to be operating a time machine that has only a reverse gear.

"A Dozen Reasons Why McCain Won't Win: Money-Back Guarantee"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/page/2/

[mhopgood123]

Wer forget that many of the Iraq war dead are hispanics. All we need to do is remind the hispanic population of the toll this war has taken on their people and that McCain is for war and they will run from him like bats out of hell.

[puffhost]

Bill Richardson for VP!!! He will make a difference with Hispanic voters and help balance the ticket. He has a wealth of experience, is qualified to be President, supported BHO early, and is not a senator (which I think we need all Dem Senators to stay put so we can get to 60).

[karela]

Hillary will make a big difference with Hispanics for Obama and she will be working her heart out to help. You'll see that she will show up and fight like a tiger for the nominee of the Democratic Party!

[mairs]

Obama is gaining Hispanic support in California, and that's without Hillary's help as of yet.

[PLDgyrl]

I keep flip flopping on the who Clinton for VP thing. On one hand it would be good to bring in the votes but on the other I don't think she can be trusted as Obama's VP. Obama has more important things to do for our country then to have to deal with a untrustworthy, unruly VP and her crazy husband.

[PoliJunkie]

O and H are meeting at her home right now as I type. Watch MSNBC.

[BigLib]

If Barry is using Lurch as a barometer of success, than he and his wife are in for a sea of disappointment.

[nonconformist2]

BO is not using "Lurch" a journalist is using it. BO has higher expectations. Justifably so.

[PatrickforO]

Who's Lurch? The Addams Family "You raaaaang?" guy?

[jsarets]

The Cuban population in Florida is probably not going to come around for Obama, but the rest of the Hispanic demographics are very much in play. The important thing to remember about the Hispanic community is that it has a very high rate of self-employment compared to other minority groups. The challenge for a Democratic candidate is to present a domestic platform that provides opportunities for wage workers without placing a heavy burden on small business owners.

The rising tide that lifts both ships is education. Obama can only strengthen his support among Hispanics and the more traditional Democratic constituencies by calling for a societal reaffirmation of the idea that education is our fundamental engine of sustainable growth and widespread prosperity. Tie the economy to education, and connect the dots to family values.

[serena1313]

Obama transcends race, but if you listen to the pundits on TV you'd never know that. I think the reason Latinos voted in strong numbers for HRC was mostly name recognition.

I believe Texas should be in the toss-up column, too. While Hillary barely won the Texas primary, Obama won both Texas caucuses. [I was an alternate delegate but elevated to a congressional district delegate for Obama which he won my district 60% - 40% Hillary]. Texans are fed-up and angry here. A ratio of 3 to 1 -- democrats to republicans -- voted in the primary. That was more than during the 2004 elections -- and this was only the primary. We made history! Additionally both caucuses had record turn-out. Normally no more than a dozen at best -- usually 3 - 7 -- per district show up to caucus. This time hundreds per district came out to participate. It was amazing.

People who voted for Hillary will vote for Obama. Most did not have a chance to get to know Obama and had heard only what HRC and/or her surrogates said against him. The more voters get to know Obama the better they like him. It happened to me. But I only got to know Obama thru research and watching all 20 debates.

There is no doubt in my mind Obama will win. Change has already begun; people sense it and see it. It is phenomenal.

[karela]

serena1313--Thanks for your on the ground in Texas post. I think there has been a lot of Hispanic loyalty to the Clinton brand, but I think perhaps that that loyalty will be extended to her enough that they will at least listen to her reasons for asking them to support Obama. After that, I think things will be better because Mrs. Clinton is very persuasive with her people and we are all very grateful that she is willing to work for the Party's nominee. I'm glad to hear that Texans are fed up. Wouldn't it be cool if Democrats were able to make inroads in Texas? At the very, very least, it would require that the republicans spend their money defending. Thanks!!!!

[AdobePhsyko]

Hillary and her henchmen have No Respect for Hispanics .
They lump them All Together like sheep,But the Hispanics in America are from many differant countries and Have Opinions Of Thier Own as All Americans Do.
The same goes for black voters.
I think it's Rude and Racist to talk about them as ONE BIG VOTE.

[SaskiaStars]

Wow - if this is accurate then Florida should be in play - with the AA vote and the Latino population trending toward him that changes everything. Also, there re 6 major universities in Florida with huge young voter population. All he really has to worry about is the Jewish vote and with help from some of his respected Jewish supporters that should be ok. The rednecks are always going to be ignorant and racist - can't do much about them

[sanywhere]

the cubans in miami are strongly republican for the most part. i have been trying to get the word out on o.b.a.m.a. but it will be difficult. i am hopeful but do acknowledge that at the moment if the ge was held in florida, m.c.c.a.i.­n. would take south florida.

[ErnestineBass]

Exactly WHY the Cuban community in south Florida continues to vote Republican is a total mystery to me. Hell's bells, Batista was overthrown during Eisenhower's presidency, so they can't blame THAT on Democrats. Whaaaaaaat is it?

[CalGoldenBear]

"[T]he [C]ubans in [M]iami" are not monolithic. Neither is any other American ethnic or racial group.

As has been shown quite a few times, it is the younger people who convince their elders/parents that Sen. Obama is "the one."

That is probably true for Cubans in Miami -- there is a generational gap.

So presumably, many of the "strongly Republican" Cubans are the ones who fled Cuba after Castro took over in 1959 or of that generation.

In the meantime, Sen. Obama recently visited FL and made at least two appearances with Cuban groups, if memory serves. Quite likely, the Obama campaign plans more appearances with both Cuban and Jewish voters in South Florida.

[SanityClaus]

But Obama got high marks for his speech in Florida "Todos Somos Americanos­." He spoke not only of Cuba, but Central and South America issues, and was seen as courageous for taking a stand that didn't pander to the old hard-line anti-Castro right.

[w8aminute]

I doubt I'll live long enough to see FL go Democratic. Republicans own us - how else do you explain Katherine Harris, Jeb Bush, etc...and Morning joe Scaraborough.
I don't know how I've survived here this long. My 4 Jewish friends are all O supporters. And honestly, there's almost as many racist rednecks in north FL as there are cockroaches.

[Pammy1151]

I live in central Florida and we have a great Obama group here because this is where Hillary won by a huge margin. If we can convince those voters for Obama we have Florida. We are working hard as we speak with GOTV and fundraisers. The area extends from Tampa across the state through Orlando to Cape Canaveral. I know it is a stretch but we are up for the challenge. Also Wexler is a huge Obama supporter and he is working the Jewish vote in his area. If we could get to the Cubans in the south we are a winner!!

[nonconformist2]

Cubans are different that the rest of the Hispanic population. They are staunchly republican. Also the jewish voters in Florida are older and thus less able to handle the idea of an AA candidate. I think OB should not rely on winning FL. He should try, but not rely on it to get the prequisite electoral votes.

[neocon43]

Good luck.Mccai­n will win Florida by double digits.Kee­p drinking the koolade!

[mhopgood123]

McCAin may win FLA but we will win Colorado , so you go drink some rum punch

[mhopgood123]

You are so right. There are some people who will never vote for a black man. But then we don't need those in the Democratic party. They can form their own little party

[smurphette]

where are my comments I think I'm being censored

[thecanadian]

Mine are not here either. For the 5th time today! Just passive comments - who knows.

[smurphette]

I tried posting again let's see what happens.

[kellygrrrl]

John Kerry deserves huge props for all he has done bringing Obama this far

Kerry was the first to put Obama on the National Stage

Thanks John!

[HuffinAndPuffin]

Say what? Have you heard of a woman named Oprah?

[Matt7]

Uhhhh "red, states, blue states, United States . . . "

[eXcommunicate]

Kerry was the one that gave Obama the Keynote address slot at the 2004 convention that propelled Obama into the national spotlight.

[Suthngal]

Why is there such an issue between Hispanics and Blacks? I have always asked this question, and never received an answer.

[Arleen1]

They compete for some of the same jobs. Who was here first and who is legal issues.

[robXdion]

Gang violence pouring out from prisons and innate xenophobia on both sides adds to it.

[Suthngal]

Okay, I completely understand the first part, but the second issue is at a lost for me. As a former historian, this is not even debatable. Plus, the Native Americans I know feel that this is a non-issue, and they get so upset when they hear this theory, which I don't blame them. It boggles my mind that Blacks and Hispanics would even be against one another when they have so much in common. One would think that they would try and come together for a greater cause.

When I was a practicing medicine before staying at home w/ my child, I had colleagues who didn't want to deal with Hispanics. It upset me so much that I constantly found myself in screaming matches over their blatant disregard for human being lives and the notion that open racism was fine.

[atila]

so where is terry mcauilffe???

[kellygrrrl]

Tweaker McAuliffe is in Rehab

[KPea]

Or locked in his house with his bottle of rum, pretending to be a pirate. I am sure he is depressed that his arrrggggg isn't quite what he had hoped.

[sanywhere]

tweak boy is hanging out with morning joe wishing they were more interesting.

[mhopgood123]

He had too many pina coladas in Puerto RIco. They can be deceiving in terms of alcohol content.