Obama Doing Better Among Hispanics Than Kerry In 2004

One of the key constituencies to watch in the general election will be Hispanic voters. The Republican Party made a mess of its relationship to this group after taking a hard-line stance on immigration reform one year ago. But Barack Obama also has had his troubles recruiting Hispanics, due both to Hillary Clinton's popularity and, to a lesser extent, racial concerns.

While conventional wisdom holds that John McCain, a border state Senator, could make inroads among Hispanic voters, a new tracking poll shows that, historically, Obama is in a very strong position.

A Gallup Study released today shows that in a hypothetical general election match up Hispanics break by a greater than two-to-one margin for the Illinois Democrat: 62 percent to McCain's 29 percent.

To put that in context, in 2004, Hispanics favored Sen. John Kerry over President Bush by a margin of 59 to 40, meaning that Obama is already ahead of his Democratic predecessor. This, of course, is a welcome development for a candidate hoping to win Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, states with large Hispanic communities.

"The narrative that Obama is weak and McCain is strong among Latinos is simply not reinforced by the Gallup numbers," wrote Andres Ramirez, of the NDN, a progressive think tank. "Also, it is clear that McCain has been unable to differentiate and/or distinguish himself from the Latino community's negative view of the GOP. If these trends continue, this will make the five heavily Hispanic states of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida much more democratic - a shift that, alone, could give Barack Obama the presidency."

There are, to be sure, areas where Obama can improve his standing among Hispanic voters. In the 2006 congressional elections, for instance, the Democratic Party on a national level won 70 percent of the groups vote. Moreover, there is heavy indication that McCain's camp thinks they can woo these voters as the election progresses.

"There are some non-Republican Hispanic leaders who aren't looking at us right now because they are supporting Sen. Clinton," said McCain adviser Charlie Black. "If they become freed up, we're going to talk to them."

But at this point in time, the Hispanic community may not poise the major political obstacle for Obama that was once believed. As Gallup concludes:

"Obama did not fare well against Hillary Clinton among Hispanics in the 2008 primaries, but the early indications are that he will do well among this increasingly Democratic group in the general election."

Comments

[Janemas]

Why does the media keep lumping all Spanish decendants into one imaginary monolithic category? Spanish Caribbean Americans do not vote like South Americans or Spanish North Americans (the Mexicans in case your wondering). Even within geographical groups, Cubans do not vote like Puerto Ricans. The only reason Obama did not get more votes in PR (for the primary of course) was because he only spent one day on a caravan, otherwise he would of received more. In NYC Americans of PR decent will vote democrat no matter who is on the ticket. They will never vote McCain into office just because Clinton lost. PR's rarely choose a candidate that goes against their values and ideas. Are the pundits talking idiocrasies because there is nothing else to discuss worth evaluating?

[ominous]

They may be lumped together cause they represent a small percentage of the voting populaton. While they're a very large part of the overall population, less than 30% of them vote and only represent 6% of the overlall voting population.

[karela]

Woo Hoo!! Another huge voter registration opportunity. Do you mean to tell me that 70% of the total Hispanic population may not even be registered to vote or inspired to want to? We have work to do children. Whoopee!

[mhopgood123]

Cubans in Puerto Rico get along fine with Puerto Ricans. It is only in mIamai that you see that animosity. I have many members in my familoy who are married to Cubans. Many ethnic groups do not like PRicans because we didnt fight to have the citizenship. It is granteds to us automatically and we have all the benefits that any American citizen has. It is a little bit of envy....that is all.But Puerto RIcans herein the USA will vote for Obama.

[robXdion]

He needs to actually go to El Paso, Laredo, Brownsville and talk to people. Work on some Spanish phrases. It's easier than the Indonesian languages he knows. Then go to NM, AZ, SoCal, NV. He relied too heavily on black voters in Texas. They love the hype, but only the HBCU's voted en masse. Obama can turn the Southwest blue. Put Bill Richardson, George Lopez and Carlos Mencia on the payroll and make it happen. I feel he is may squander opportunities trying to figure out how to convert his primary strategy into a GE strategy. He needs to stretch McCain out and chase him through key states. McCain can't win an attrition battle, so he wants to keep Obama close; like a boxer with no reach or power wants to smother and tie up his stronger opponent. Obama needs to keep distance and make McCain chase him around the ring, then knock him silly as he comes in.

[agett12]

Also I believe other minorities seeing a minority gain the nomination is a big signal. They will start saying if a black man can do it an hispanic, asian, native america, and even a woman can do it. This message absorbed will at least give Obama a textbook democratic victory.

[personalpolitical]

All I got to say is this: Obama-Richardson '08 (and for a lot more reasons than just the Latino vote)

[neocon43]

Bring that on.It sounds like a big loser ticket.

[personalpolitical]

But....but....didn't Terry just say a few days ago that Obama has a Latino problem?

Oh wait, he didn't actually base that on anything, I forgot.

[SanityClaus]

Right, based on the results in Puerto Rico. Its 0 electoral votes will be pivotal in November.

[smurphette]

Listen where i'm from and this is a heavily populated area of hispanics every other car bumper and yard sign has an Obama sign on it or in it.Personally I really don't believe he had a real problem in the first place. Hillary is just that a brand,name recognition no more no less.The MSM likes to blow things out of proportion,say it enough and someone is bound to believe it. Don't believe the hype! even in PR the only reason he under performed is because of name recognition,even still he got some good numbers in a historically low turn out primary election. Hispanics will vote Obama.

[ksjohnso]

Gosh. Of couse they will back him. The importance of his candidacy is not that he is the first black man nominated by a major party. It is that he is different in a wider sense. I know many women felt that they lost their opportunity to see a woman as the POTUS, but if Obama wins he opens the door to all people to seek the office whether it is an hispanic man, a white woman, an Asian woman. His historic run proves that any one no matter where your parents come from can grow up to be the President of the United States. To this day in my grandparents home they have a picture of J.F.K. on the wall in their basement. I think if BO is elected, he will definitely be on my wall. I feel like I really the U.S. is really my country now, like I really belong.

[ErnestineBass]

Absolutely wonderful post, ksjohnso. The best I've read in weeks. Thank you. EB

[karela]

Wonderful Post. And just to get everybody in the mood, give a listen to this wonderful Viva Obama song. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[Busterdawg]

Obama will lose the Hispanics to McCain, seniors to McCain, working class whites to McCain, Ohio to McCain as well as Penn.

Thanks for screwing up a sure win in November.

[boogygran]

Well, this is one senior, working class white old biddy from Texas who is backing BARACK OBAMA. I also have some Hispanic neighbors who plan to vote for Barack as well, so don't write off all those groups and States on your list.

And there is a very good chance that Rick Noriega will defeat the Republican incumbent he's running against for Congress this fall as well - Go Democrats in '08.

[rowzeer]

Hillaryness is showing

[AMJordan]

But..but..Pat Buchanan says O has a real problem with Hispanics. He can't be wrong, can he?

[Bluejay00234]

Old fat Patty is always...oh I mean never wrong, no not he. How long before he says O-bama has an Asian problem?

[bosshogg]

he gona be so mad his white sheet will turn red................

[kellygrrrl]

Pat is gonna blow his fat white sclerotic head any minute

[sanywhere]

kaaaboooooom. i am waiting for the rachel maddow rant from pat. you know he does not like her.

[PatrickforO]

Yeah, Pat kills me. When our candidate lost in WV and KY, he kept saying, "What's his PROBLEM?" Hilarious! Oh, and SURE he can be wrong. He pretty much is all the time. I don't know why they have him on the panel, except to provide what sports announcing teams call "color.'

[TexasCrat]

That has been clear to most of us for months and months. The Latino community doesn’t vote as a monolith as much as African Americans but it was obvious to me that Senator Obama was making inroads on the Latino community when the message boards stop being filled with division between black and Latino’s over Hillary Clinton. During the Texas primary there was a HUGE push by Senator Clinton to cause the divide and both the Latino and AA community recognized it at the same time and began to quietly work towards a common goal after the Texas primaries. Also, the polls in LA show that Obama’s strenght among our Latino brothers and sisters has steadily strengthened as the divisive nature of Clinton’s campaign became more clear. Let’s be clear here. Voters in CA, FL, TX, NM and other cities with heavy Latino populations have OVERWHELMINGLY registered as Democrats due to this primary season. Things do not look good for Juan McSame and I hope the Latino community do not fall for the same tricks used by Bush to get their support and then he threw them under the bus. Fool me once…

[fflores]

I'm hispanic... a one time Republican.... I'm voting and supporting "O"

[notthistime]

good for you fflores. Yes we can!

[fev08]

You go ! Bring more hispanic friends over! Im Eritrean but my best friends are latinas and I have great admiration and love for Latinos. Im fluent in spanish and I am a going to use that to help bring in hispanic voters




Democratics 08

[justobserve]

I say: Lots of people are inspired by Obama to be better ourselves irrespective of race. It's true! In contrast, Clinton inspired in us the worse. The world would be a better place with leader like Obama.

[olivia]

Kerry would do better among Hispanics than in 2004, too.

[Probus]

I agree.

[PSD827]

That's Great! Now he's really starting to improve upon and build up further his already growing coalition.

[PSD827]

Also, this makes you question whether or not the opposing campaigns and the news media have blown the whole "Blacks vs. Hispanics" issue out of proportion.

[sareader]

They did - and if you go back and look at statements made by Hillary Clinton, she personally helped perpetuate the myth during her devisive campaign.

[loax]

EVERYONE can rally around our next President Barack OBAMA!!!

[thepoliticalcat]

Great news! I know the O-man can rally the major part of the Hispanic and Asian communities under his banner.