Obama's Poll Numbers Bump Up As Democrats Consolidate

In the first sign that voters are coalescing around Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, two daily tracking polls notice a widening of the gap over his Republican rival John McCain. Both Gallup and Rasmussen now have Obama holding a gap of 6% over McCain. The numbers in parentheses show the point change from last week:

Gallup
Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-4)
Margin of error: 2%

Rasmussen
Obama 50% (+4)
McCain 44% (-2)
Margin of error: 4%

Chris Bowers notices that the gap grew significantly after Hillary's concession speech on Saturday, which suggests that the spread has only just begun:

Obama appears to be rising even faster following Hillary Clinton's concession speech on Saturday than he rose from Wednesday through Friday. Since Clinton's speech, despite only a two-day sample, Obama has gained 5% relative to McCain in Gallup, and 3% relative to McCain in Rasmussen. Cumulatively, that is more than half of Obama's gain, despite only having a two-day sample (the tracking polls measure three days, according to both websites).

Rasmussen also notices that Obama is not doing poorly among women voters, as is commonly presumed in most coverage:

Pollster Scott Rasmussen says that as of today, based on 3,000 automated telephone surveys over the past three nights, Obama gets support from 52% of the women in his national tracking poll compared with 40% for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. He says that's better than Democrat John Kerry did with women against President Bush in 2004.

Scott attributes Obama's performance to unification within the Democratic Party over the past few days. "Before last Tuesday, Obama routinely earned around 70% of vote from Democrats," he tells us in an e-mail. "He's up to 81% today. Clearly the party has been coming together."

All of this, of course, should be taken with a grain of salt. A bump is one thing, but it remains to be seen is Obama will sustain this lead over McCain.

Comments

[VOTER]

Good news but only the beginning of work yet to be done.

Remember, we ended up with Bush for 8 long debilitating years...................... FREAKED OUT!

The GOP will do ANYTHING to WIN.

MCCAIN IS AN EASY LAUGH BUT SHOULD BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

VOTE OBAMA!

[drec1500Madrid]

It's mind boggling that the race is this close. There's a global economic, humanitarian and ecological meltdown in play and McCain and Co. are still concerned with tax cuts. Talk about fiddling while Rome burns....

[socks1]

For most folks, the only thing they know is McCains' Viet Nam story, heck, its been a History channel movie type documentory. All we have to do it tell the "rest of the story".

Most folks hardly even know Obama's name, and the media story that he has policies just like some Liberal nut job would.

You see, most folks get their 'news' from faux nus and can't tell you why 9/11 happened, with any kind of real understanding. They parrot the propaganda---"They hate our freedom" kind of drivel.

WE have to reverse the ignorance factor and right now there is time. Write your town's editors and write your own articles for the local paper too. Have a little fundraiser garage sale with home made signs in the yard and send at least a % to Obama's election fund. Believe me, if you read HuffPo, you know more than the average citizen.

[ddharder]

Nothing at all wrong wit tax cuts. The problem is that neither party is talking spending cuts like they need to be.

[jonboy3000]

You can't have tax cuts and fight a war at the same time. Our federal debt (not deficit) is over 9.4 trillion dollars. We increase it at a rate of 1.58 billion today. Each citizen's share of the debt is over 30 thousand dollars. Bush chose to fight the war in Iraq and then give his rich friends over 2 Trillion in tax cuts. This was fiscal irresponsibility. The government borrowed against our social security funds. That's the big joke in that the politicians talk about the underfunding of social security when in fact the problem is with the general ledger and our country's deficit spending. Social Security was changed in 1986 making the fund sound for quite some time (it does need to be adjusted some on the indexing, age, contribution limits) but is other wise pretty sound. Ending the costly war in Iraq would help along with revoking all the the Bush tax cuts for the very rich. I think we could have the same rates as during the Clinton administration when the economy was booming. Things are going to be hard and we do not want to pass our debt to future generations.

[Squirtapotamus]

Uh, no. There is a fundameental problem with "tax cuts". It is a slogan used by Republicans to pander to the selfish even though Republicans have no intention on delivering on this promise. The working class have not realized any relief from Bush's tax cut and we're paying more for insurance and gas, this a kind of private corporate tax which profits the Republican sponsors.

The only people who have realized real tax relief are those in the Military/Industrial complex making billions off this war. The Republicans have given them corporate tax relief so that during the 8 years of Bush the windfall profits they make will be even larger. Combine the tax cuts for the filthy rich with the windfall profits of the Military/Industrial and Oil companies and you'll understand the true reason for the Iraq war.

If you are a patriotic citizen you will have no problem paying your share of the cost supporting the infrastructure of this country. Republicans would rather the infrastructure collapse than admit they owe anything to this country. Half the people in this country maintain this selfish ideology even after all the years of lies by the Republicans. If pandering to their selfish nature doesn't work, Republicans will pander to their bigotry.

[NYCdowntown]

I agree, it is a shock to see that there is even 10% of people who want 100 years more in Iraq, tax cut for the rich, I mean...People wake up! it hurts you doesn't create any jobs the Bush policy hurts the middle class, stop the nightmare, today McSame wants to send more young people to Iraq, what is it whith you???

CAN some one that disguise of McSame, now with the hat and sunglasses to hide his old looks, it is really a translation of what he is a disguised BUSH

[mhoiles]

What have the dems done in the last two years with Pelosi and Reid! NOTHING ! Bummbling do nothing congress. News Flash they hold the majority and have lower approval ratings than Bush.

[veracity]

Sad but true. Just look at those West Va. & Kentucky voters.. arguably in as much need of good government as anyone in America. But remember, the Hatfield & McCoy fued allegedly started over a single pig!

The bigger problem is the Big Pig press/media. Those soulless bastards are out to do nothing but butter their own bread and kiss their corp. master's behinds
Given the MOUNTAINS of Bush Co. atrocities to talk about, Chris Mathews, as usual, prefers to talk about the "he said, she said" horse-race aspects of the latest news, and of course framing them in terms of his stale, tired, noninformative spit-all, "WHAT IF B.O. does NOT get that all important bump.. will Hillary's gang be saying 'I told you so'?"

The rest of the media is even worse than Mathews. Call it the "Olbermann affect" - with Olbermann asking tough, well directed questions almost every night, even Mathews has had to step up his routine from (for example) his formerly slavish fascination with Republican
"Manly Manliness". Hell, even the eternally fawning Howie Fineman was forced to ask some sensible questions instead of parroting that horrific WP / DC "conventional wisdom".

Obama's #1 task this campaign is to FORCE the corporate media to be even 33% honest.

Since they are all followers who like being fawned over, it really shouldn't be that hard.

Just DON'T take that Pelosi or Hillary notion, NOT to talk to liberal talk radio because you are "too busy" or whatever.

[LA2000]

The real danger here is that the dems start to feel invincible and get lazy. Or all those young people who have never participated before feel like its a done deal and don't show up.

This time last year, McCain was in third place behind Guliani and Thompson.

Just sayin'.

[ilcapo]

in a week s time,Obama will be up 8-10 points,wait and see,the Democrats will unite....a few months ago the right was complaining and bitching about McCain but now they ve all have gotten behind him...this election will be all about the ground game and enthusiasm,we a democrats have the decided edge on that,now let s get out there and kick the GOP s ass!!!!

[nene]

I think we can expect a higher than 80% african american turnout. As a 22y/o AA female, I caucased for Obama where I live which is about 76% AA. Dallas had never seen an AA turnout like that in areas where we live they thought it was going to be the usual and the city was overwhelmed it was to the point they had to call the news. That is why I would not depend on the current electoral map. People have to remember over the past 20 years or so there are a lot of AA's in the south that haven't voted due to the fact that they did not have a reason to. Now, a lot of those who have not voted now want to vote. Southern states from Georgia to Texas, excluding Florida have the tendency to be 20% AA or more in total state population. So don't be shocked to see a couple of southern states turn blue in November.

[KeysDan]

"..over the past 20 years or so there are a lot of AA's in the south that haven't voted due to the fact that they did not have a reason to. Now.. a lot of those who have not voted now want to vote." Why is that? Did some people in Dallas really believe that Reagan was not different that Mondale, or Daddy Bush the same as Dukakis or Clinton? Dole better than Clinton? Or W. Bush no better than Gore?

[MichaelTempler]

I Think George Will said it best any poll is based on a certain turn out model

when we are expecting a high turnout among young people and probaby 80 to 90 among African Americans

there is no way for them assume that so therefor they are off

I was thinking this was either a close McCain or Blowout Obama but Electoral college speaking it may be a landslide either way.

That said in every state that was contested by Obama there was record turn out or a lot more than the republicans and in some cases he had more votes then all the republicans combine and this is when the Republicans still had a race.

if the general is like the primary as long as Obama doesn't have any crazy people talking his numbers go up.

the difference now is McCain is well liked in the media and by the public

he might lose because of age but most likely because he will be continuing many of Bush policies

and doesn't have his reformer message of 2000

[j0em0mma]

Uh, McCain isn't even well liked by his own party... lol, the presumptive nominee winning his remaining contests for the Republican Primary by ~70%. McCain is going to make Bob Dole look like Jack Kemp...

[flyfysher]

I suspect the 2008 general election for president will be quite close and that Obama may win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College. Ah well, never mind the prognostications. We will all find out soon enough anyway.

[macbabe]

Kucinich: Impeach Bush
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/06/kucinich_pushing_for_bush_impe.html
On the House floor this evening, the Ohio Democrat proposed impeaching President Bush. In language similar to that in the articles of impeachment he raised against Cheney, Kucinich sought support for a 35-count indictment charging Bush with misleading Congress and the American people into war with tales of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

They better take Cheney with him, because 6 months of Cheney as Pres will be worse!!!

[j0em0mma]

What's the difference? We either see the puppet or the puppet who is Bush's puppeteer... It's not exactly as if Bush has been holding Darth Cheney in check...

[LA2000]

Wouldn't Cheney just pardon Bush? It would just end up being a whole big circus for nothing. Better to put our efforts into clearing the republicans out of every position of power in november.

[donttasemebro]

We need the circus to wake the country up to the crimes committed by the B u s h administration. If people knew, they would have to care, wouldn't they?

[TN]

CNN reports today a 2.5% lead. Can someone start e-mailing faux and Cnn the current news? Seems they are weeks behind in their reporting, uh parroting.

[eden4barack08]

Oh what's the use? One is pro-right, the other anti-left, they would never get it!

[StarkRavingNakedEmperor]

Finally, the straight dope on this situation!

[Beachchick]

Someone should tell CNN.

[izAriver]

Why? They don't give a damn.

[MichaelTempler]

CNN is going to use their poll not someone else's on these snap shots

[Beachchick]

According to CNN’s website, their poll consists of an average of four: CBS, Gallup, Pew, and Newsweek. Newsweek and Pew haven’t conducted a poll since late May. The Gallop numbers are from June 3, before Clinton conceded.

It seems CNN out sources its polling and doesn’t update it in real time.

[NTO08]

It is way too early to predict anything now...

[izAriver]

Five months. Long way to go. If there's justice in the world then Obama will steadily put distance between himself and an obviously inferior candidate.

[TheRealMacDaddy]

Yup, hopefully by November even John McCain will be voting for Barack...LMAO

It don't get no sweeter than this! Some true change is coming and not change for the worse as we experienced in the last 8 years.

[izAriver]

Lmao.

[Oldbuck]

Guess we better watch those bumps Fox noise said the fist bump between Obama and his wife was a terrorist sign. The only people dumber than this bunch of Republicans are the dumb ass's who believe this stuff. I know they just say this crap to set us off. Will this is the only Mission Accomplished. by this bunch.

[eden4barack08]

Nah, I don't think they say it to set us off. They say it because dumb audiences listen to what dumb tv speakers (sorry, can't find a word opposite of journalists) say, that's at least 80% of the FoxNews viewers, and as you said they actually believe it!

I just don't think they're smart enough to wanna set us off!

:)

[thepoliticalcat]

There's a great photo of that other terrorist, G.H.W. Bush, giving that same terrorist sign to a young blonde.

[clintfatigue]

How about Bush chest bumping with the graduating cadets? Weird.

[ilcapo]

they are just preaching to their choir,those numbnuts were never gonna vote Democrat...what Obama has to do is refute those stupid remarks and not let it stand,not get swiftboated like Kerry did,gotta learn from that campaign s mistake...Obama 08

[JShankel]

Well, what do you know? Turns out that assuming that all women will vote the same way is the sexist point of view. Who knew?

[kevinmcd]

Nice little bump but Dukakis was well over ten points ahead in the Summer of 88 but lost big time. There is tons of work to do.

[drkazmd65]

We'll just have to see to it that there are no Willy Horton moments for Barak,... and that somebody keeps him the hell away from driving some tank with a helmet on.

Stick to the suits, dress shirts, or some non-descript polo shirts.

And - stay on the message!

[jimdog1954]

And counterpunch the slime machine INSTANTLY!

[thepoliticalcat]

Hmm. I think he's sensible enough to adhere to those guidelines without help.

[Oldbuck]

Don't hold your breath till McCain beat anything.