Obama's Poll Numbers Bump Up As Democrats Consolidate

In the first sign that voters are coalescing around Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, two daily tracking polls notice a widening of the gap over his Republican rival John McCain. Both Gallup and Rasmussen now have Obama holding a gap of 6% over McCain. The numbers in parentheses show the point change from last week:

Gallup
Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-4)
Margin of error: 2%

Rasmussen
Obama 50% (+4)
McCain 44% (-2)
Margin of error: 4%

Chris Bowers notices that the gap grew significantly after Hillary's concession speech on Saturday, which suggests that the spread has only just begun:

Obama appears to be rising even faster following Hillary Clinton's concession speech on Saturday than he rose from Wednesday through Friday. Since Clinton's speech, despite only a two-day sample, Obama has gained 5% relative to McCain in Gallup, and 3% relative to McCain in Rasmussen. Cumulatively, that is more than half of Obama's gain, despite only having a two-day sample (the tracking polls measure three days, according to both websites).

Rasmussen also notices that Obama is not doing poorly among women voters, as is commonly presumed in most coverage:

Pollster Scott Rasmussen says that as of today, based on 3,000 automated telephone surveys over the past three nights, Obama gets support from 52% of the women in his national tracking poll compared with 40% for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. He says that's better than Democrat John Kerry did with women against President Bush in 2004.

Scott attributes Obama's performance to unification within the Democratic Party over the past few days. "Before last Tuesday, Obama routinely earned around 70% of vote from Democrats," he tells us in an e-mail. "He's up to 81% today. Clearly the party has been coming together."

All of this, of course, should be taken with a grain of salt. A bump is one thing, but it remains to be seen is Obama will sustain this lead over McCain.

Comments

[Countdown09]

At the end of the day democrats will always be democrats. McCain is not an option if you truly believe in the democratic party principals, we are one nationm we are our brothers keeper and together we stand divided we fail and fall.

[Independent007]

I promised not to say a negative thing about the Clintons and I have.
I figured the Dems would unite around Obama.
This independent while not a Dem, but who will vote Dem in the upcoming elections, predicted this all along. The other option is just not realistic given the country's problems.

One caveat: Look for Bush to involve the country in another "terrorism threat" or even a "confrontation" with Iran before the elections are over. That in my opinion marks the October surprise that the Repubs have primarily directed towards the women who tend to vote security of the country over their own interests year after year. Only thing, with the new voters, including many younger/older women mavericks who have "been there done that", Obama's lead should hold for November.

Count the senior women out mostly and some men. This is unfortunate, because this Republican stunt of fear mongering right before an election, seems to get this group of voters everytime. Only this time if they buy the googi juice McCain is selling, they will end up with a reversal of Roe v. Wade and zero woman's rights in the McCain/McBush Presidency. What is sad is that the majority of these groups don't even know what I wrote, because they are still old school like my mother who can't serf the net and can barely send me an email despite me setting it up for her.
Not a slam, only the unfortunate reality.

[IndependentMynd]

I really think that it would be a HUGE mistake for the Republicans to pull something before the elections because it would only REMIND the American public that the Iraq war was based on a HUGE LIE. The Republicans might want to do their very best not to lie to the American public before the elections if they want to hold on to ANY of their seats in Congress. If they get caught in a lie, they would lose in a landslide and President Obama would have a mandate to make sweeping changes. I doubt the press would play along this time and they would be caught lying AGAIN to the American people. Quite unpatriotic to manipulate elections through fear and would only expose their true cowardice AGAIN. Look at YouTube and McBush's flip-flopping, lies exposed.

[fflores]

Nothing has been won yet....... we can not take our eyes off of what is to come... as O said... this is only the beginning.... we need to make sure that we get ready for all the calamity that is sure to come, if you think the primaries were part of the "silly season" just wait until McLame tries everything and then some to get the POTUS

Stay alert, stay ready.

[donaldw6]

Stop celebrating, stop celebrating! Get down off those tables and put the cork back in that champagne!

We need to stay lean and mean all the way to November. We need to get everyone registered, we need to toss every voting machine without a paper trail, and we can never get overconfident!

They've found a way to keep our goose cooked practically the whole of my lifetime, and they're not going to go quietly into that good night. This is going to be a dogfight every step of the way, so get used to it. These are great signs, but we can't take anything for granted this year, and we're going to have to scrap for every single vote.

Game faces on!

[Countdown09]

I'm with you donaldw6 -- it's way to early to start drinking the champaign. The republicans are not going down without a fight. Let's turn our inspiration and joy into action for now, donate and volunteer people!!

[kellygrrrl]

yep!

this is pure strategy

they're all crying "Underdog'

hoping we let our guard down

don't fall for it

[CaptainVideo]

What is needed now is an intensive education campaign to make it clear to voters that McCain is not some kind of moderate Republican but, rather, is a hard-line rightist. Once the people in the center understand this, McCain is toast.

[ChiGuy]

That's gonna be a tough sell considering that far right conservatives find him too liberal.

[TXOBAMAGIRL73]

Hillary did win in Munchkinland .....Where the delegates are tiny and half is normal ...Even full delegates in Munchkinland still wouldn't count because they were against Munchkinland rules so half is good

[Countdown09]

Go home troll - your attempts to stir up the fight again just ain't going to happen.

[Bluejay00234]

Hopefully we all can start uniting around O.

[littlepuffycloud]

That is one handsome future president! Hubba hubba

[StarkRavingNakedEmperor]

You wouldnt believe how powerful and important that can be to a candidate's success--Hollywood Star Power, je ne c'est quoi--the two Kennedy brothers had it, Clinton (believe it or not!) and Obama definitely has a massive measure of it!

[IndependentMynd]

Isn't that sexist? Sexism can sink a candidate, you know. :)

[juevosrancheros]

Something to celebrate and build on. Let's turn this campaign into a party, people!

Obama '08

[littlepuffycloud]

How about tsunami?

[coolkraft]

cool photo for cool soon to be president

[southernsepia]

Let's not get carried away here it's only 6 points.

That's close and the Republican 527s haven't even gotten started yet.
And don't forget the David Dinkins factor.

This race is going to be won the way the primary was, organization an volunteers.
Don't take this for granted, volunteer in your area and register new voters.

[nonconformist2]

Can you say "landslide" in November? I sure can!

[Trogenhorse]

I think the republicans HOPE we will not do it this time, but I strongly believe they are wrong. The numbers will increase and be sustained. I like the sound of Obama/Webb08 or Obama/Nunn08 Either way, it's a winner!

[jimdog1954]

Nunn is a loser. He is waaaaay to conservative, and would not carry the progressive mantel if anything horrible should happen to our president.

[BobEvansZombie]

Here's hoping that he doesn't screw up, and that those around him are honest, and that he doesn't become corrupt.

If Obama wins the presidency and becomes a corrupt, or inept administration, I fear that the typical ruling class, (rich white guys), will use a failed black president as a cudgel to bludgeon the public in order to take control again.

[boltaflex]

Only a curmudgeon would use a cudgel to bludgeon.

[M.S. Bellows, Jr. - Huffpost Blogger]

Especially to bludgeon a cur.

[Independent007]

Ouch!

[aquarius2001]

BO is looking good in that picture! =)

[XME]

Reminds of of MiB! = )

[edwarvir]

aquarius2001 I agree Senator O is fine.