Obama Leads In First General Election Poll

Wall Street Journal:

Barack Obama begins his presidential race against John McCain with a lead in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, but not so great an edge as might be expected, given the gale-force political headwinds against Sen. McCain's Republican Party.

Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain by 47% to 41%, a spread that is twice the edge he had in the previous poll, in late April. Still, that lead is significantly smaller than the Democratic Party's 16-point advantage, 51% to 35%, when voters are asked, without candidates' names, which party they want to win the White House.

Read the whole story: Wall Street Journal

Comments

[kellygrrrl]

from the mouths of ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNPm5w_btx0&eurl=http://

[VicPerry]

"Barack Obama begins his presidential race against John McCain with a lead in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, but not so great an edge as might be expected, given the gale-force political headwinds against Sen. McCain's Republican Party." What utter hack-journalism nonsense!!! "Not so great an edge as might be expected"??? after months of shrill anti-Obama attack from the mainstream media? after all the efforts of Hillary Clinton and her supporters to bring him down??? And how has the media treated McCain, other than with deference? Given all that I'd say a lead that size is kind of stunning...

[WLA]

It's refreshing to find that a lot more people are thinking for themselves this time and ignoring the media smear machines.

[BlueOnBlue]

I've been listening to MSNBC spin this poll today. All they're focused on are the demographics in which Obama is behind.

Suburban white women? Heck, why not left-handed suburban Escalade drivers?

The fact is that Obama is leading in this poll among women. And he is leading among all registered voters. This is despite Obama having been hammered for months in the primaries.

At the same time, McCain, who everyone admits had greater name recognition going in, is trailing and dropping daily.

But, I guess that's less interesting than Obama losing among women with large lawns.

[CrazyDemocrat]

Interesting polls, BUT, if Hill doesn't get the VP nod how will that impact them ?? Will they defect to McClain or stay home ??

[votenik]

Actually, the FIRST General Election Poll started back in Sep. 2007 at http://www.votenic.com. The've been doing a weekly poll ever since then.

[WLA]

The "dream ticket" will never happen. You need to let go of that. The primaries were too damaging to the party. Only the media and the right wing wants to keep bringing that up.

There might be a small, immature and vindicative fraction of ex C-linton supporters that are still so rabid that they vote against their best interests, but by November that is going to be a pretty insignificant number. Public opinion doesn't lock-in after the primaries and most people won't hold a silly political grudge that long.

[jsarets]

It doesn't matter that Obama is leading by 6 points and rising. McCain is still polling at 41%, proving that Obama has major problems in the general. If Obama were even a remotely viable candidate, then McCain would obviously be polling under the margin of error.

If McCain is polling at any significant percentage, it will cast serious doubt on the legitimacy of Obama's candidacy. McCain is polling at nearly 10% among blacks and 30% among Jews. Why can't Obama win blacks and Jews? Why can't Obama win McCain voters? If Obama is so great, then why hasn't he already been elected president?

[leftoflennon]

Get off it already

[RoloTomassi]

All polls are out the window on this one, sparky; Obama over McPain by 60%. Remember where you heard it first.

[LeaveArtieAlone]

You are pulling at strings. Funny does not a fact make!

[thepoliticalcat]

The REAL issue is that the O-man is rising in the polls and Mc Ancient is dropping.

[oafishcad]

Your math is a little off. If McCain is getting 10% of blacks and 30% of jews, then Obama is getting 90% of blacks and 70% of jews. You said he isn't winning blacks and jews.90% is losing? 70% isn't winning? Is this the GOP math that got our economy in the toilet? No wonder our nation's in such a mess.

[sillyseason]

McCain's Voting Record On women's Issues

http://www.womenforbarackobama.com/McCain.html

Take the time to verify his voting record over the past 25 years, ladies.

[Vantunow]

From NBC's Mark Murray - Putting Obama's lead in perspective

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/12/1135634.aspx#comments

In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Obama leads McCain by six points (47%-41%) among registered voters. While polls can't accurately gauge an election five months out -- after all, so much can still happen -- it's worth putting Obama's lead into this perspective: Bush never trailed Kerry in the 2004 NBC/WSJ polls that measured registered voters' preference for Bush, Kerry, and Nader. And Bush's lead was never bigger than four points.

[SaskiaStars]

This should really scare the Repugs because anyone in the system who understands how polls work knows that there is a certain cross section of people who 1) answers their phone without knowing who is calling 2) are home to be able to answer the phone 3) have land lines 4) will spend the time on the phone answering questions. Typically these people are older and traditionally more conservative, and LOOK at the numbers - old grumpy is losing ground even with the traditional conservative voters.

The fact is there probably isn't a single person under the age of 30 who even has a land line these days and if they do they are not home during the day because they are working, playing or going to school. The other fact is lower income people do not have land lines either because it is cheaper to have pre-paid cells.

[HotATL]

I think that the lead will widen once they have their first debate. McCain forgets too many facts to be effective in a detail debate. Also, if they ask him what he will do about the economy other than “making the tax cuts permanent”, he doesn’t have any answers.

[WLA]

I think you are correct.

[CommentSense]

The Obama Team will not rest on these early poll numbers, and they will aggressively drill down to those key factors that sets Obama apart. Those supposedly angry Hillary women voters will come around, and I agree with an earlier poster that those voters were small in comparison to what the media has portrayed them to be.

My most vocal issue that I have been telling people about is three words...The Supreme Court. This is a generational election in which the judges that will be selected will affect our country for many, many years to come. We need to bring balance on all judicial levels.

[shanester]

Once the public takes a closer look at Mccain and see his out of touche with reality his poll numbers will continue to drop. I guess to him sinking poll numbers aern't "that important"

[bygollymissmolly]

Once the public figures out that Mc'Cain is not the "maverick" and "moderate" he claims to be, he will become unelectable. That's why I'm worried that the Republicans are going to pull a switch on us at their convention. I'm betting they go for Romney.

[thepoliticalcat]

At least one of the two electoral "base" groups -- conservative Christians -- will not vote for Romney, as the other "base" group -- big business -- discovered in the primaries.

[Angelus2007]

The only problem I have with these polls is they are so early, and mean so little. In January Hillary had a large lead over Obama, and 6 months later look where we are. On the republican side McCain and Huckabee were left for deal in November, and they were the last 2 standing after Super Tuesday. Kerry had a large national lead in polls in July and August, and lost them in September, where Bush pretty much had the lead afterwards. So what is happening in June is no indication what will happen in November. Too many things can happen, Obama could keep pulling ahead and win in a landslide (not of 1984 or 1972 with a 49-1+DC landslide, more like a 1996 379-159), or McCain could pull ahead. Right now according to state polls Obama leads 304-221, obviously enough to win, but Ohio, Michigan, Missouri & Wisonsin are all within the margin or error on Obama's side, and Virginia is even. McCain could get Virginia, Michigan & Ohio and that would give him 271. So it is too early to tell.

There may even be a swift boat, plus running mates may make a difference, Romney may give McCain Michigan, a Huckabee may give McCain Virginia & Missouri, bringing out the evangelical base to tip those states. Same thing on the Obama side Ed Rendell could solidify PA for Obama, or either party may have another Thomas Eagleton situation, collapsing their candidacy after the convention.

[WLA]

Romney would not give McCan't Michigan. I say this as someone who lived there for 35 years. Romney is not considered a homegrown guy in MI.

[emmaspeaks]

Obama will get more and more support, so a large bump isn't really needed. And that's from my husband, the republican.

[starboymikey]

Obama's lack of acceptance by white men is hardly surprising. But polls during the primaries showed Hillary having nearly as much trouble with this group.

I work for an engineering company that employs a lot of blue collar technicians and, almost to a man, they hate both Obama and Hillary. Ostensibly their reasons are the usual, trite Republican mantra of "tax and spend Democrats." But when I point out that Bill Clinton handed Bush the biggest federal surplus in modern history and that Bush turned it into one of the biggest deficits, they have no logical response, but to state again they would never vote for Obama.

Don't get me wrong. These are basically good guys, struggling to make ends meet and support their families. But sexism and racism are so deeply ingrained in our culture that they are simply part of the fabric of our collective unconscious. Often very difficult to bring into the light and look at objectively.

Also, they have been burned so many times by politicians that they have a basic mistrust of anyone who promises to "fix" the system. Bitter? Cynical? Duhh!

[NotMcCain]

I don't think 41% support among white men (vs. 47% for McCain) is exactly a "lack of support". The media keep spinning it that way, but it actually seems pretty close and pretty strong results to me, especially this early on.

Also, didn't Kerry have a similar spread vs. Bush in 2004? Maybe white males just skew a bit more heavily Republican. (Or maybe the polling sample skewed a bit more that way--I don't see party breakdown anywhere).

I actually think that 41% is pretty good, especially since the primaries only ended last week.

[Thereandback]

Last Democrat to win 50% or more of the white male vote in a presidential election was Lyndon Johnson. (Clinton got more white male votes than Dole, but it was under 50% because of the third party candidacy of Perot.)

[thepoliticalcat]

Um, the 47% is the O-man's number. Mac Ancient is pulling 41.

[Grunty1]

White Men have been going for the Republicans for a while now. Not THIS white man, but you know...

[ProgressiveThought]

It does our country a diservice when we attempt to slice and dice the numbers. The only number I am concerned with is that 47% of Americans feel Barack is the best choice to be president. And that is a testament to how great America is.

[going2ireland]

Big hugs to you!!

[sfbayani]

And they pay the price of voting for Repughs.
Well, the cost of that fell on everyone.
That is the irony of it all and our tragedy!

[SaskiaStars]

No Democrat has ever won the "white male" vote - not even Clinton. This is generational, I bet if we ask a thousand white males under 30 if they would vote for old grumpy or Obama we would see a huge majority go for Obama. This is the election when everything changes - the old traditional racists and xenophobes are not going to make the decision this time.

[cyndeewi]

Obama's new website: fightthesmears.com is awesome. I don't know who thought of it but now they if they start the smears, Obama will be using their names and telling the truth.