Zogby Says Political Junkies Should "Take A Deep Breath" On Polls
How much stock should a political junkie put in any one poll? For the hardcores who live and die with each burp from Gallup, Rasmussen, or any other public opinion entity, polling icon John Zogby has some advice this season: take a deep breath.
"First of all, it's early," the President and CEO of Zogby International cautioned. "Believe it or not, there are a lot of people who are uninvolved. They're more in the center and less polarized, certainly than [voters were] in 2004, when we clearly saw American voters divided into hostile camps very early on -- over the war, over Bush, the 2000 election, lots of things.
"Combined with the fact it's early, that means that there's some floating taking place. It's remarkable, I've been watching this as I poll ... in addition to saying [to a pollster] 'I'm not sure,' people can say they are leaning one way and then the other over a short period of time."
But even beyond the extremely unsettled nature of public opinion this year, Zogby said news consumers should be wary of reading too much into any one poll, at any time. "I don't place too much stock into polls as predictive, anyway," he said. "They're more like a snapshot, a photograph of a moment. And it's possible to get two different camera angles [at the same moment] because there is that volatility. I try to make up for it by stabilizing my sample through weights. But that's a whole methadological thing. Quite frankly, we all get 'em wrong."
Referencing questions raised last week by The Huffington Post about the methodology behind the latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll -- which purported to show a big lead for John McCain over Barack Obama among "suburban women" -- Zogby said he tries "not to lead with demographic subgroups, especially smaller demographic subgroups."
"So when I see, 'Oh so and so's ahead among women,' yeah, all right, I gotta look at the methodology. .. That's absolutely correct; it's worthwhile to take a look at those numbers. It's probably legitimate to ask 'Could Obama have a problem?' [with that group] and that it's something we may want to take a look at. ... But it's definitely a paragraph six [finding], and probably better to put in the form of a question."
But Zogby had harsher words for the media's increasing dependence on polls as the driver of campaign coverage. "I think it's become downright abusive," he said. "It's one thing for us to use polls to fill in the news hole. It's a whole other thing to just completely abuse them, and use them as firm conclusions -- and talk about tectonic shifts. The most notable sample in this [election] cycle was the two days leading up to New Hampshire primary. I got it wrong. I'm one of the guys who had Obama leading by 12. But in the last five hours of polling, I saw a surge for Sen. Clinton.
"I didn't know what to do with that. I didn't know if that was a trend, or an anomaly. It was only 123 or 124 people. Polling responsibly, I had to fold it in. That did not mean that it was legitimate. Then, for Keith Olbermann or Chris Matthews or whoever else to write Hillary's obituary -- 'What is it we're going to say about her 35 year career in public life?' -- [was premature]. You always have to let people vote. ... There's so much about this that has been sensationalized."
Asked about what would need to happen in order to correct the media's coverage of polls, Zogby said it wouldn't necessarily require a Herculean effort. "Let's assume the worst, which is broadcast news in particular. They're not going to have the time to issue the long disclaimers. But I don't think it has to turn into a Zoloft ad: 10 seconds of product and 50 seconds of 'it can cause death in farm animals'. On the other hand, the screens are loaded with information. I don't think it's a bad thing to say: 'Obama leads by six, and that's within the margin of error. And also understand, this is a snapshot of a moment in time. There are factors that can cause errors. It's early.'"
Until that happens, however, Zogby said he would simply advise voters to read several polls and try to capture the trends. "Be a good consumer," he said. "As with everything else."
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First Posted: 06-16-08 11:17 AM | Updated: 06-24-08 05:12 AM