Obama Holds 16-Point Lead In South Florida

In a sign that Democrat Barack Obama will be competitive in the nation's largest swing state, he is beating Republican John McCain comfortably in South Florida and has a slight edge among Hispanics, according to a new Miami Herald poll.

Obama is ahead 46-30 percent over McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the survey of 807 people conducted by Zogby International. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

''Obama's 16-point lead in South Florida could springboard him to make it a competitive race statewide,'' said pollster John Zogby. ``I really think Florida is in play.''

About 24 percent of South Floridians favors another candidate or haven't made up their minds -- a large group that could tip the race in the coming months.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[Marlyn]

"shows a tone-deafness to the Cuban American community's concerns."

I am SICK of the Cuban American community, with their right wing extremist views.

Establish normal relations with Cuba! Then maybe they will all go home.

[heal57]

That would be nice. I used to live in South Florida. If you didn't speak spanish; no job for you!!!!

[pie8ter]

I couldn't agree with you more!

[LucieLee]

I thought this article was about Barack ahead in S. Florida by 16-pts! Good gosh, there is hope for us Floridians yet! How in the world did this even get to be a rehash of the Elian Gonzales story? The boy who is now a teenager is where he belongs, with his dad. he lost one parent, he should not have lost his other because of political expediency. I do hope that Obama wins Florida, and wins it big. It will silence all the naysayers-including Hillary Clinton who said Obama couldn't win. Just think of what the Cubans in Miami-Dade would have done if Hillary was the nominee~It was President Clinton after all that gave the order to send that little boy back to Cuba, not Greg Craig, who was the attorney for Elian's dad, or Eric Holder the Deputy Attorney General at the DoJ. Why were these 24 or so Cubans protesting Obama or Mr. Craig.....they hated Mr. Gonzales so much because he wanted his son back, or were they just misguided folks lashing out at Fidel Castro, and Gonzales' attorney, via Obama was the closet thing they could direct their schizophrenic distain to??

[Researchguy66]

Hate to be the party-pooper here (OK, not really), but an examination of the 2004 general election results in the same area shows that Ke'rry WON South Florida by 18%. That's 2 points better than his lead in this poll...and we all know how that turned out...a 5 point loss in the general.

County Bush Kerry
Broward 244,674 453,873
Miami-Dade 361,095 409,732
Palm Beach 212,578 328,553
Total 818,347 1,192,158
% 41% 59%

[1099]

As a native Floridian I can tell you that once you go north of Palm Beach County you might as well be in another state.

[GuyFawkes]

That's what I hear from my friends who are from Florida. As one of them said to me once, "There's nothing in the northern part of Florida but football and rednecks."

[Hagrid]

There are about 800,000 Cuban americans. Many are republicans.
The next generation are leaning towards Obama.

300,000 - 500,000 votes against can't harm Obama when he is doing so well with other sections of Florida.

[CalGoldenBear]

So what you're saying -- and the self-proclaimed "pundits" are either too lazy or too stupid to realize -- is that due to a generation gap, the Cuban-American community (like "Hispanics") is NOT monolithic.

Just because the oldsters are Repubs, especially the "historicos" who fled Cuba in the years right after Castro took over in 1959, that doesn't mean that their offspring or grandkids who have no memory of life in Cuba hold the same political views.

But the pundits continue to disseminate their Bushwa on TV and radio.

[Alfannell]

One word pick Bill Nelson for VP!

[leftoflennon]

U ARE joking......right ?!

[SouthFloridaDem]

Are you kidding me? I'm over Bill Nelson and will vote against him when he's up for reelection next. He's been enabling the Bushies for the past eight years. He's one of those Dems who needs a permanent vacation from the Senate.

[Alfannell]

How about Debbie Wasserman Schultz for VP!

[GravitonX]

Bastista Cuban exiles would like everyone to believe that they are the Latino gatekeepers to the entire Hispanic vote in Florida. This is far, far, far from the truth. They own alot of business and have a bit of money, but they don't have the population.

[SouthFloridaDem]

The younger Cuban population (those of voting age) don't share the same politics as the older ones, too. The younger Cubans are pro-Obama.

[gditty]

Obama lifting the travel ban will do more to help ALL of the Elians in Cuba than the present policy that McCain endorses.

[Desdemondo]

Way to go Bam.

Obama 08.

[tel8034]

The Elian story has come and gone, and no longer relevant. Recently another child was returned to Cuba, and that story was a mere blip on the news cycle........... If you blinked, you missed it.

Floridians have more problems to worry about - Home Foreclosures, Gas Prices, The McCain Plan For Off-Shore Drilling, just to name a few.

The number of Cubans who came to the USA in the 1950's after Castro took over, are now totally outnumbered by 2nd and 3rd generation Cuban-Americans who go on with their American lives, and only "hear" the stories about the Cuba their grandparents knew ................ Attitudes among this "younger" generation have changed ...... They have no desire to sign up and join the revolution.

Obama just needs to stay on course and he'll be quite fine in Florida and indeed in the rest of the country.

[musselmanm]

Hawaii is one of our states, lets drill there! We at least need to set up oil rigs in the ocean just of the shores!

[CalGoldenBear]

Since when has there been any evidence of oil -- other than what's imported from overseas -- in Hawaii?

Big Oil geologists would tell you that drilling for oil offshore (or even on-shore for that matter) in Hawaii would a waste of time and money.

[gwhizz]

I am sick to death of cubans holding us hostage.

[desertdweller]

When the Castro regime ends in a few years with the death of Raul, thousands of Miami Cubans will return to Havana and will lose interest in American politics, much to the detriment of thge GOP.

[Josefina]

I am Cuban and the Elian event touched our emotions and made some of us vote for the freak. The GOP milked it. Having said that, the demographics of the Cuban vote demonstrate that the Cuba obsession is dying off at the same rate its proponents are dying. Three entrenched Republican seats filled by Cubans are being challenged by Cuban Democrats and so far looks really good. The emails are re telling the Ilean sob story and I keep thinking of how pathetic that the GOP has to use this obsolete card to get attention and how they seem to think that people that are losing their homes, cant pay for gas, ect will be concerned with Elian!!!!!!

[Flagal]

I was born and raised in Miami, if you think for one minute that Cubans who return to Cuba are going to stay you are clueless. Yes the Cuban businessmen and women will return to see how they can profit, and many will return to vacation and visit loved ones, but maybe a handful will return permanently.
As far as Elian is concerned, what a dog & pony show that was. He should have been returned to his biological father, period. Politics have no place in family matters, but thats what the Cubans did, they turned this boys sad plight into a political brouhaha, disrupting traffic and impeding on citizens rights to live their life as they please.
It was sickening.
As far as Cubans and the GOP are concerned, the old time hard liners who still hold a grudge from "the Bay of Pigs" fiasco are a small number. The younger Cubans dont decide their political affiliation from old history but instead vote in their best interest.

[vippy]

I agree. A child belongs with the parent unless the parent does him/her harm.
What idiots some people are. How would they like to give up a child because politics
think it should be on the side of "freedom." What freedom, ask some of the American
Children!

[Cookie100]

SMART, always vote your best interests and unless you make more than $2.8 a year, the GOP is NOT YOUR FRIEND!

[TrueIndy08]

I would love to see Obama win FL!!!

FL should be miffed at the GOP.... look what happened in 2000! Now look, housing market in shambles, inflation like no other... please remember Floridians.... Bush has done this to you... and if you think McBush is any different, please think again!!!!

And please remember, Obama did not send Elian Gonzalez back to Cuba.... vote your interests, than means voting for Obama... not the old war monger... he's Bush in a much older suit!!!

[crossoverwriter]

GO OBAMA in FLORIDA!!!!!!!!
Maybe they are finally coming to their senses!
Take it back from the neo-cons!

[billrott]

I do not think the proposed oil drilling off the coast will help the Republicans.

[RoloTomassi]

I think you are correct, and that will likely be the case in any state with significant beach/tourism concerns. Rethugs keep touting the nonsense about how Katrina hit the oil platforms in the gulf and nothing major happened, so that means technology has now rendered oil platforms impervious to bad weather/oil spill risks, which is complete nonsense.

[AMJordan]

And here I never knew there was a state named "South Florida".

[ThunderclapNewman]

South Florida is a suburb of New Jersey.

North Florida is an extension of Georgia.

Central Florida is a fish out of water.

Hence the regional polling.

[wm1066]

Funny!
But with a ring of truth.
Thank you for the laugh.

[Myshkin57]

That's not bad. I used to live in south Florida, and currently live in north/central Florida. you're pretty right-on.

[naschkatze]

No. . . but if the population is concentrated there or a significant part of the population. . . just saying. Here in Oregon if you say the three counties including and around Portland are for a certain candidate or ballot measure, that means he or it will be voted in, but if you looked at a map, those three counties look a pretty small part of the state. What part of demographics don't you understand?