When people talk about how MSNBC's Chuck Todd would be an ideal candidate to take over the reins at Meet The Press - and they're out there - it's precisely the sort of balanced, intelligent, and detailed work that he offered up on today's Morning Joe that enthuses them. Todd has served MSNBC well as their go-to "poll whisperer," his keen eye divining the trends and truths that often go hidden amid the hype.
This morning, he lent his insight to some of the recent polls that have Senator Barack Obama staking out a double-digit lead. Todd's big takeaway isn't that a rout is necessarily in the offing - a couple national polls have Obama up by only six points, and there are closer races on the state level that more directly inform how the electoral votes will be tallied - but one thing that Todd noticed across all the various polls was a wide "enthusiasm gap" between Democrats and Republicans. "Republicans aren't excited about calling themselves a Republican right now," Todd said.
But Todd was quick to caution against making any foregone conclusions in June, noting the comeback swells that nearly salvaged Gerald Ford's candidacy in 1976 and that did carry George H. W. Bush to the presidency in 1988. "Both campaigns had one thing in common and that is they made it a referendum on the challenger," Todd said, "It became about: is Jimmy Carter really ready for the job? With Dukakis, it became about: is he one of us? With Obama it will be both of those things."
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TODD: The thing that I would be nervous about if I were the McCain folks and I heard you had Rick Davis on. And he was right to point out something about the Los Angeles Times poll and that is this massive party identification gap, where there's sort of a 15 point gap between people identifying themselves as Democrats versus Republicans. While that's true that won't be what election day looks like and if it did it would be 400 members of Democrats in Congress, 75 Democratic U.S. Senators. Pretty much Obama would carry every state but Utah. That said, it is pointing to an enthusiasm gap. Republicans aren't excited about calling themselves a Republican right now, so maybe they are calling themselves an independent. Maybe they are just, you know, not identifying at all. They are just not enthusiastic. And that's the one thing all of these polls have in common. whether it's the Newsweek that has him up 15, Los Angeles Times 12, USA Today/Gallup 6, our own poll 6, the thing that we all, that they all have in common, massive enthusiasm gap between the Democrats and the Republicans.
SCARBOROUGH: Put this in historical perspective for us. When you go back to 1988, where Michael Dukakis had a huge lead over George Bush Senior. Yet he came back. Talked about Jimmy Carter, 1976 way ahead and ended up very close. Or would could talk about, this could be like 1996, where Bill Clinton stayed way ahead of Bob Dole and endsed up trouncing him. What are you looking at right now as far as a historical perspective?
TODD: Let me take 1988 and 1976 for a minute because what is interesting there is the big comebacks. When you talk to people, Ford might have been one day away from finishing his comeback. Obviously, George Bush Senior did finish his comeback. But both campaigns had one thing in common and that is they made it a referendum on the challenger. It became about: is Jimmy Carter really ready for the job? With Dukakis, it became about: is he one of us? With Obama it will be both of those things, is he ready for the job and is he one of us. But I look at this, you think, don't ignore 1980 as a potential example, where it feels like a fairly close race right now. Ultimately, I know 15, in some polls, but I think single-digit race and certainly you look at the battlegrounds and it feels closer. And that 1980 race between Carter and Reagan and you had the John Anderson factor - which was a real factor in that year, and the independent candidate. All of a sudden if broke at the last minute. In the last week it went from a dead even race and broke and Reagan went from basically being neck and neck to winning an electoral landslide and somewhat of a popular vote landslide. All Reagan had to prove was that he was ready. It was the same thing, Carter was trying to make it a referendum on Reagan. Reagan, the guy might be too conservative, or with Reagan, the guy might be too trigger happy. May not be ready to be commander in chief. And then, of course, they have their one debate. Reagan proves he can stand on the stage with Carter and that was it and they swamped it. And I think that's sort of what's going on here with Obama. It's a referendum on him. If he proves, if he hits, if he does his C-plus work - and I think the country is only looking for C-plus work for him, that may not be fair to McCain but that could be what's happening - that's what happened in the primary. If he hits it, all of a sudden this whole thing could turn in his direction in a big, big way.