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Obama Leads McCain In Four Battleground States
"An emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to leads of five to 17 percentage points over Arizona Sen. John McCain among likely voters in the battleground states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin," according to four Quinnipiac University polls released today, conducted with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com.
Sen. McCain's lead among white voters in Colorado and Michigan cuts the gap to single digits, but doesn't offset Sen. Obama's strength among other groups. The Democrat also leads by eight to 21 percentage points among independent voters in each state. Overall results show:
* Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 - 44 percent, including 51 - 39 percent among independent voters;
* Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent, with 46 - 38 percent among independents;
* Minnesota: Obama buries McCain 54 - 37 percent, and 54 - 33 percent with independents;
* Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 52 - 39 percent, and 50 - 37 percent with independents.Democrats would like Obama to pick Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate, but voters overall reject the idea. Independent voters oppose Sen. Clinton by 16 to 29 percentage points.
More details here. Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has more:
Democrats held an edge over Republicans in three of the four states -¿ ranging from an 11-point gap among self-identified partisans in Wisconsin to an eight-point edge in Michigan. In Colorado, the survey found that Republicans comprised 29 percent of the electorate, compared with 28 percent for Democrats and 38 percent calling themselves independents. That dead heat on party identification, however, marks a major gain for Democrats from 2004, when exit polling showed Republicans with a nearly ten-point edge in the state.
Independents, who were widely written off during the 2004 election in favor of appeals by the candidates to their respective party bases, look likely to play a central role in picking the next president in these four battleground states. And for now, Obama has a clear edge over McCain among independent voters in all four states. That lead is largest in Minnesota, where Obama takes 54 percent among independents compared with just 33 percent for McCain. The Democrat's lead was 13 points in Wisconsin, 12 in Colorado and eight in Michigan.Obama's lead among independents is all the more important given the large number of voters eschewing the two major parties in each state. In Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, roughly three-in-ten voters identify as independents; in Colorado that number is closer to four in ten.
The political environment in each state suggests a decidedly uphill climb for McCain in the general election. In Colorado, just 31 percent of voters approve of the way President Bush is handling his job, while 63 percent disapprove. In Michigan, the numbers are even more dismal, with a meager 26 percent expressing approval of Bush and a whopping 67 percent disapproving.
Asked whether they were satisfied with the "way things are going in the nation today," more than eight-in-ten Michigan voters said they were either "somewhat" (27 percent) or "very" (56 percent) dissatisfied. In Colorado, 76 percent described themselves as "dissatisfied".
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The Huffington Post | June 26, 2008 10:18 AM