$200-A-Barrel Oil: Envisioning What The World Would Look Like

The more expensive oil gets, the more Katherine Carver's life shrinks. She's given up RV trips. She stays home most weekends. She's scrapped her twice-a-month volunteer stint at a Malibu wildlife refuge -- the trek from her home in Palmdale just got too expensive.

How much higher would fuel prices have to go before she quit her job? Already, the 170-mile round-trip commute to her job with Los Angeles County Child Support Services in Commerce is costing her close to $1,000 a month -- a fifth of her salary. It's got the 55-year-old thinking about retirement.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[Blutus]

Look, Americans simply buy too much crap they can do without.

You don't need four TVs and five cell phones. Cable TV. Tobacco.
Every fast food joint you can name.

It's wheat and chaff time.

Movies, golf, etc. Drain the pools. Force every golf course to use astro turf.
Invest in mass transit.

The rest of America needs to learn what the poor already know:
what they can live without.

[gonavy]

So what will they be selling at WalMart?

I agree with your assessment, time to cut out the fat and get to the basics. For some of us this will be a learning experience. I have had a cr@p filled life since I was 10. I will think of like an adventer, experiencing life as my grandmother did. But, I am seriously worried about my mother, the WalMart cr@p is her therapy, her life blood.

[KillTheMessenger]

Here is an interesting thread... some good ideas about speculation in there. Not exactly mainstream, though. If you need your daily "It's speculators, godamit!" fix, don't go there:

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4224#comments_top

[walk0nwalls]

Ladies and gentlemen, the death of consumerist culture just came about its natural end.

I'd like to thank the academy...

[walk0nwalls]

Globalization ate itself.

Words cannot describe the... I'm just so mirthfully happy.

[JoeBlough]

High gas price does have a silver lining. The back of my house faces a busy street. I"ve noticed that traffic is a lot lighter and quieter on the week-ends. I"m loving it.

[francoise]

What you noticed is the silence.

What you didn't is the lower level of polution and the smaller number of particules from exhaust fumes you're breathing.

High gas price has many silver linings, because sadly we're acting out of greed when our wallets suffer, and not out of reason.

[balance]

So far, middle class consumers may be able to weather the high fuel costs.
However, as these fuel costs continue to eat into debt, savings or equity, the accumulative effect over time will further damage the American economy.

Has the MSM done a few impact studies concerning which groups, businesses, & occupations will be most affected?

Here's for starters:

High fuel costs are a greater percentage of income for the middle class and poor, -- especially in certain demographics in the United States where average incomes are lower.

Those most hurt as a percentage of income:
African-Americans
Hispanics

And in states where average incomes are lower and commute distances are longer.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States)

In addition, worldwide there would also be negative impacts. Agriculture would become more expensive as costs for petroleum based fertilizer & fuel for agricultural vehicles increases.
(Will there be food-aid programs that develop small, shippable bio-diesel converters so that poor farmers can become self-sustainable? Also, how about programs that promote & teach alternative fertilization sources & soil replenishing methods?)

Tourism to less developed nations may also decline, and some undeveloped 3rd-world nations may see an increased hurdle to become 2nd-world, as industrialization costs increase.

[Paul]

What you are describing is the end of the suburbs as a viable model for a middle-class lifestyle.

Back to the cities - like it was in the first half of the 20th century.

It will likely be an improvement.

[ErnestineBass]

Expect the murder rate to skyrocket.

[KillTheMessenger]

The suburbs were developers cashing in on the dreams of millions for a home of their own. It was a non-sustainable rush into overbuilt real-estate. And for the inhabitants it's a nightmare. Having said that, many suburbs can be grown into full sized communities with jobs and recreational offerings. But that will take another 20 years and trillions of investments. The ones that are too far out can probably become the suburbs of the former suburbs that turned into viable communities.

[francoise]

Tourism is a luxury. The American Middle Class, as the European one, waste a lot on luxuries.

We could do without many useless luxuries if we have to spend more on energy.

It all comes down to a question of choices. Whether one prefers to travel, or to be cool in summer and hot in winter, or to drive a big hummer, or to eat a hell of a lot of meat, or to live in a remote suburb.

Obviously those Chinese kids who got up at 4 am to paint our kids' barbie dolls, or those African kids who walked all day to bring back some water home, might not be given much choices.

[NeoStar9]

The US government can fix this for the American people but they don't want to or even care to. It's very simple in the end I feel. Just tell the oil companies to take a hike. Then simply funnel in as much money as possible into alternative fuels, solar power, wind, etc. The US will take a massive hit for a few years but the end result will be worth the price we pay in the short term. The government simply has to go on TV and radio constantly and explain the situation and ask the American people to sacrifice and to please bear it for the time being. Try to put in some sort of population control as well. That is another thing that is hurting us I think but it's something no one wants to talk about or bring up. There are way to many people in this country and the number of resources are dropping not increasing.

In a few short years I think we could be energy independent. It however requires real leadership to tell the American people what is going to be done and actually do it and ask the people to sacrifice for the betterment of the country.

This will never happen since the US government is bought and paid for by corporations and those in elected office are simply to greedy and selfish.

[rikki52b]

Right now it is not as painful to all folks as it could be, when the pain the pocket dial is turned up only then you will see the changes. It's a waiting game.

[drzoon]

no.... not even a fantasy in ANY world of reality.

we needed to get a handle on this after 9/11. we needed to come out and say we are going to be energy independent by 2010.... and we will be out of the middle east for good then!

not only would the saudis have found and killed Bin Laden for us... but would have kept oil low to undo our ambition of energy independence.

its the same in any business when you know your favorite client is going to stop using your services... you have to scramble and either kiss a lot of "you know what" or find a new client.

[KillTheMessenger]

It's not that simple. You can't just turn a switch and convert a country's infrastructure over night. This will take two to three decades of very serious investments. Basically, the baby boomers have left the bill for their lifestyle on the table after getting up from a lavish meal. And now their kids will have to pick it up and pay for it all, including the interest.

[kingcityguru]

If you want lower oil prices give US producers a tax exemption for each new barrel of oil pumped. Crazy? No. I own a small Tunisian oil producer (Candax cax.to) that started drilling offshore Tunisia year ago and is now pumping. In return for paying NO taxes or royalties until they recover all their costs, the government of Tunisia gets the nat gas by product for next to nothing to fuel an electrical generating station. Win win win.
Why can't the US do the same? Reward those that give you what you want, not punish them with silly windfall taxes.

[KillTheMessenger]

This is nonsense. We need to push people to conservation, not pay the cost of their unwise decisions for them. A 100% gas tax like in Europe will quickly do the trick. There will be some hard feelings and some people will be hurting like crazy, but at this point there are no good options left on the table.

[Vyvjala]

Well, aren't you a caring soul...................

[francoise]

Maybe our kids and grand kids will call the day when the barrel hits $ 300 "the day our ancestors stopped acting out of their minds".

[vippy]

I hope that our grandkids then have the new technology where hardly any gas will be used for cars.
We are being held hostage on that, the US Government dictated the low CAFE Standards and therefore we cannot buy a car that gets 66 mpgs like cars do in Europe. Our American Specifications call for more gasoline usage. This price for oil won't hold because technology will
run away with it and the refineries will not buy this expensive oil to process. Besides, it is our
congress who created this ENRON Loophole and is holding on until the election, whereby they
can blame the whole mess on the Republicans. The DEMOCRATS are just as lousy as the
other party but what choice do we have?

[KillTheMessenger]

You wouldn't buy a car that gets 66mpg. You are raging against cars that get 47mpg and call them "plastic toys".

;-)

[Mogamboguru]

The music has only just begun - read (You must copy and paste the URL to your browser) :

http://www.forbes.com/finance/2008/06/23/crude-biderman-margin-pf-etf-in_tt_0623trimtabs_inl.html
Sky-High Oil Will Make U.S. Go Broke
Stratospheric crude oil prices precipitated by speculation are wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy.

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=19066
American 'meltdown' reason for money injection Fortis.
Fortis expects a complete collapse of the US financial markets within a few days to weeks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/27/cnbarclays127.xml
Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles
US central bank accused of unleashing an inflation shock that will rock financial markets, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

If the USA was the Titanic, I would start scrambling for the lifeboats NOW!

[KillTheMessenger]

They sold the lifeboats as scrap. They said this ship can not sink, so we don't need them.

[Rokjok777]

Nobody seems to get it. $200 per barrel oil will come for three reasons. First is that you have to buy dollars to pay for oil, and the world has lost confidence in the dollar so it has dropped 40% against the euro in the last four years. This is because of the criminal mismanagement of US finances by the Bush administration. America is now the largest debtor nation on earth and has to borrow $2 billion per day to stay afloat. We are the sub-prime mortgagee of the world.
Reason number two is that since the dollar is not trusted anymore (issued by banana republic America), investors & governments are viewing oil itself as a currency, a place to store value.
Last reason has to do with peak oil, supply & demand, and increasing demand from emerging China, India, Russia etc.
But the main story has to do with the dollar. After WWII, Germany was flattened, Japan was flattened, France was flattened, England was flattened, Russia was flattened, the only one standing was the US. So they based the world financial & commodity systems on the US dollar. That entire game is in the process of unwinding. Very very painful. Power flows towards money, and the ones with the money are China, Russia, Japan, MidEast, Brazil. Emphatically NOT the US. We are broke! If you voted for the Bush, it is your fault. Clinton left office with a surplus, and oil was $20 per barrel.

[totalliberal]

!70 mile daily commutes are a thing of the past. That kind of driving is absolutely ridiculous.

[KillTheMessenger]

You will love this:

http://www.transithell.com/commute/2006/04/americas-lomgest-commute/

Try maps.google.com with "from: mariposa CA to: San Jose CA"

Fun, isn't it?

[CaptainHowdy]

Not in a city, like LA, where even a modest home is over 500k.

[thegreatgiginthesky]

Why has the internal combustion engine ever been improved upon? We've improved guns and better ways to murder people but something helpful like the internal combustion engine, naw we can't spend money to research that.

[KillTheMessenger]

The ICE has been improved on many times. But there are physical limits to how efficient it can be. A roughly 50% efficient ICE looks like this:

http://people.bath.ac.uk/ccsshb/12cyl/

Not exactly what you need in your car, is it?

If we trust

http://www.cleangreencar.co.nz/page/prius-petrol-engine

the Prius engine achieves 34% efficiency at 13.5hp, which is probably pretty close to cruising speed on the highway. The hybrid system will try to keep the engine as close as possible to this ideal operating point. With regenerative breaking slightly higher system efficiency can be achieved in city driving.

Now, power plant size steam turbines can achieve up to 60% efficiency. So one would think that ICEs in cars can probably go towards the 50% efficiency regime, which for a Prius sized car would mean 80mpg. Any improvement beyond that will probably have to come from aerodynamics and a smaller weight.

[KillTheMessenger]

We've just been to Costco. People were mostly buying staples. Big screen tvs were not flying off the shelves. Shopping carts were mostly empty, a few were halfway filled. None I have seen were flowing over with items. Nothing people were buying looked like a luxury and the store was half empty on top of that. A year ago the picture was very different...

Looks like Americans are finally coming to their senses. Not by choice, of course, but by necessity. But even so, what a relief to see a nation regaining its sanity. The next step of recovery for our shoppers will be to notice that they are not filling the back of their SUVs any longer and that a smaller car would do just as well.

Let the healing begin.

[darthdarcy]

Smug alert..!

[KillTheMessenger]

You seem to be nursing a grudge against the truth, Darcy.

[Tom95134]

Open up ANWAR! Open up more offshore! The battle cry of the Republicans, BUT... "Every rig and every crew that's available is working right now," said Hal Bopp, the state's oil and gas supervisor. This is not just in California but in every state and off shore development ships.

Republicans are doing nothing more than trying to make sure that every possible advantage is made available to their "friend" before the Bush/Cheney robbers get out of office.

[kingcityguru]

If you want lower oil prices give US producers a tax exemption for each new barrel of oil pumped. Crazy? No. I own a small Tunisian oil producer (Candax cax.to) that started drilling offshore Tunisia year ago and is now pumping. In return for paying NO taxes or royalties until they recover all their costs, the government of Tunisia gets the nat gas by product for next to nothing to fuel an electrical generating station. Win win win.
Why can't the US do the same? Reward those that give you what you want, not punish them with silly windfall taxes.

[drzoon]

Knee-jerk Liberal HERE.

and ... i couldn't agree more.

for some reason we have lost all of our creativity in dealing with almost ANY problem. and this is a good example.

actually i think our really big problem is we don't have a plane. A PLAN.

i say lets drill and pump for the next 20 yrs.... but then shut her down. if we had done this after 9/11 we would be half there already.