$200-A-Barrel Oil: Envisioning What The World Would Look Like

LA Times:

The more expensive oil gets, the more Katherine Carver's life shrinks. She's given up RV trips. She stays home most weekends. She's scrapped her twice-a-month volunteer stint at a Malibu wildlife refuge -- the trek from her home in Palmdale just got too expensive.

How much higher would fuel prices have to go before she quit her job? Already, the 170-mile round-trip commute to her job with Los Angeles County Child Support Services in Commerce is costing her close to $1,000 a month -- a fifth of her salary. It's got the 55-year-old thinking about retirement.

Read the whole story: LA Times

Comments

[Krikkit]

This article said, "Consumer spending has held up surprisingly well in the face of skyrocketing pump prices -- bolstered in part, perhaps, by federal tax rebates. "

What morons! People are buying LESS but spending MORE for those purchases because every item is shipped by truck, and fuel costs get passed on directly to the item price, so it looks like spending hasn't been affected -- it has.

Are they really this stupid, or are they spinning "The economy is strong" again?

[KillTheMessenger]

Katherine, is that a Porsche you are driving? And you have an RV? Oh, my. The world is falling. And the NYT is rapidly becoming a showcase for the above average American whiner.

Just why am I not moved? Maybe because this article completely misses to discuss the real problems: inefficiency and gluttony.

[FogBelter]

Famine, is what the world will look like. The change in climate coupled with the rise in expense of fertilizers and diesel to run water pumps in many areas of the developing world will result in farmers leaving their fields fallow and growing just enough to feed their immediate families or relying on their crop seed for nourishment. For the consumer. food prices, due to the cost of cultivation and transportation. will rise to a point that many will be reduced to a state of bare subsistence.

We need innovation FAST or the World will swiftly become a brutish, violent place.

[KillTheMessenger]

Did you notice that Kathie has a Porsche? I don't think she will be starving.

[darthdarcy]

I have a Porsche, it's my third one, some of us are born to drive Porsche other Prius..

"I can't help it if I'm lucky..."

[Krikkit]

And the truth is that the fields already in production have enough oil in them to last about another 140 years. The speculators are crushing us.

Why hasn't the fed opened the strategic oil reserves to calm the oil speculation? Maybe its because they WANT us worried about oil enough to be complacent when they rape Iraq and go after Iran.

Oil corporations and their shills, the GREEDY Old PERVERTS are killing us.

[TurgidCaterwauling]

I love how the blame is always placed on the doorstep of average Americans. I wanted mass trans and high mileage cars when this nation got bent over in the 70s. Big business and politicians didn't do a thing. Here we are almost 40 years later wondering what we'll do now. Doesn't say much for vision and leadership.

[lornejl]

It's a fairly simple process to screen the politicians you vote for, the corporate pigs can be spotted a mile away with 2 minutes of research. Why can't voter invest 2 minutes time to research who they vote for ?

[OlongapoEd]

Dude! Politics is like, boring, ya know? I wanna know what's happenin with Amy Winehouse!

[iheardthisbefore]

MANY people share the blame for the lack of a coherent and sensible national energy plan.
MOST of them, YOU elected to the Presidency and to the Congress.

The chickens have come home to roost, and it will be a VERY expensive stay.

A national concentration on energy conservation and alternative sources
SHOULD have been developed YEARS ago.....remember the lines at the
gas stations in the seventies?

Boy are WE ALL stupid, but particularly stupid are the one's who think that it's
just a matter of drilling for more oil, that will SOLVE our problem.

[richardgordon]

I know I am in the minority, but I am thrilled the price of oil is going through the roof. Believe it or not this is the only way the world will change direction. And incidentally, if you think its just America that is getting slammed, every other economy in the world is getting slammed by these oil shocks.

The fact is that all of our economies have centered around the production and consumption of oil and automobiles. This is ruining the global atmosphere. With high oil, the whole structure of society will change. No longer will we be shipping papaya from the other side of the world and commuting vast distances to go to work. The world economies will adapt and become more energy efficient.

Of course, there will be much pain, which is unfortunate, but no politician in the world is courageous enough to force the kinds of changes that are necessary for the future of this planet. Personally, I am hoping for $300 a barrel oil. That should do it.

[arvay]

Frankly, I'm not looking forward to hyperinflation, and economic recession and/or depression. But I know what you mean -- we've proven as a species so unable to deal rationally with this and move to new , renewable energy sources. Bush has wasted eight years, Clinton didn't do much ether. Now pain and suffering and wrenching changes will probably force us.

Just think how things will improve for the world if an energy source like solar or fusion can be economically tapped. Over time, it amortizes into free energy -- what a boost for the economies of the world!

Unfortunately, I agree we're going to have to be punished into a better future.

[lornejl]

Americans have to be kicked in the teeth until they take action, thats how its been, thats how it is, and thats always how it shall be.

[Idiocracy]

Agreed.

The price of alternative energy is now compeditive with Oil. This is gonna hurt for a while but we can do this... Its time for BIG change. Bring jobs back home and lets rebuild what has made America great for a long time.. : Independence.

Obama 08

[Krikkit]

Richard, you are naive in the extreme if you can't see through to the profit motive behind this.

The oil corporations wouldn't let oil dependence decrease after the 70s fiasco, so what makes you think they will just roll over this time when their profits have never been higher?

People will wake up all right, to find they can't feed their kids that day. Some dream!

[KillTheMessenger]

Naa. Richardgordon is right. We need this pain to change direction. But you just keep hoping that the drug dealers will give the good stuff away for free one day.

[richardgordon]

I think its naive to blame these problems on the oil corporations. They just drill the oil and find the oil. The oil corporations got rich on $5 a barrel oil. Its not in their interests to impoverish their customers. It just pushes their customers to find cheaper alternatives they don't want that.

The price of oil is where its at because of the following dynamics in the market place.

Reason 1: The $US is losing its international reserve currency status. Notice how all the commodity prices have gone through the roof lately? This is because the world, who would have bought $US are instead buying commodities as a de facto currency.

Reason 2: There are more consumers in the world who need oil (and the other commodities) and are competing for them. That's why the price is going up. Demand is beginning to outstrip supply.

So the reality is that the oil companies have little if anything to do with the price of oil. On the other hand the Bush Administration through neglect, indifference and incompetence has turned the $US from one of the strongest currencies in the world to one of the weakest. That's why oil is where its at.

[realityczech4u]

I have an 84 year old housebound neighbor. She's thrilled too, Last winter, just to keep her house heated to 60 degrees, she would have had to eat dog food several times a week if I hadn't helped her out. It was the old starvation/hypothermia dilemma. Now with fuel oil at over $4.50 and predicted to go over $5 by winter, it looks like she's SOL. Any thoughts on that? I was already worn out from paying my monthly tribute to the medicoes. And I've got to pay that. Not having health insurance is more dangerous financially than not paying protection money to the mob is physically. And now, with what the commodities speculators are bleeding out of me for food and fuel, it is really getting serious, Once the handiwork of those parasites has it's full effect and has filtered down into the cost of just about everything I buy, I will probably have collapsed from exhaustion. Of only one thing can I be sure, at this point. That I will outlast old Matilda. The first major cold spell and she's a goner.

[KillTheMessenger]

Your 84 year old was in her fifties when she and her generation voted for Reagan.

In a democracy you get who you vote for. Sometimes it just takes 30 years to play out. So what? That does not make her decision back then to abandon energy efficiency measures correct.

And no, we are not pawns in a game of kings. If that is what you think, you need to find a dictatorship and live there for a while. Then you will appreciate the difference.

[richardgordon]

You know they can design houses that retain 98% of their heat so we should all be living in more energy efficient homes. Listen, I am not saying that an oil shock is good for our economy. Its not. It will create massive problems. And untold misery for millions of people. And this is unfortunate. But the way we live our lives is simply not sustainable. The whole planet's economy is designed around the burning of fossil fuel. Bear in mind that the US has 5% of the world's population and burns 25% of the world's fossil fuels. And now you have countries like China and India coming on stream who want to emulate the American Dream. If this happens then our planet is in deep deep peril. And nobody can stop them. Certainly the west does not have the moral authority to tell China or India not to buy cars and squander resources the way we have been for the past 100 years. But if the price of oil goes $200 to $300 then by default that way of life becomes unsustainable for EVERYBODY. No longer is there the issue of the West having the gall to tell the Chinese or India that they should consume less oil. Its almost like God has decided this issue for us. This is good news for the planet and good news for your children and our decedents. They deserve to live in a planet that hasn't been ruined by our generation.

[StillAmused]

The world would look like -- what's that squirmy, forced-smiling, white-haired guy's name, again? -- oh, yeah... John McCain.

Care to take another stab at relating to the rest of the globe by swinging a sledgehammer while reciting the Boy Scout Oath?

Check this graph, line up the inception of the 45-degree upward ramp in oil prices with Junior's televised "Shock-And-... Awww, Sheeit!" special, then forget EVERY other explanation for our fun oil riot.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/OilPrices.GIF

When you trash the restaurant, the management doesn't offer you free seconds and coffee on the house.

[leduck]

Kathrine Carver has been forced to give up RV trips
GOOD
She has to stop driving 50 to 60 plus miles twice monthly rom Palmdale to Malibu
GOOD
She also must stop living so far from work (she works in L.A., another 60 plus miles)
GOOD

housing prices are falling faster in Lancaster and Palmdale (exurbs of L.A.)
GOOD
Traffic falls 4% in L.A.
GOOD
Use of mass transportaion is up
GOOD
restaurants are turning to localization of food
GOOD

maybe we can build bullet trains to link up major cities and light rail for use in major cities
California crude is heavy with low flow -- so it will not change anything

[outnow]

From Truman to Nixon, real wages for private sector labor increased 40% From Nixon to present, real wages in the private sector decreased 5%. Average weekly pay for private sector labor is $600 per week, excluding benefits. The percentage that gasoline takes out of the paycheck is getting to be 10% for those people. With the deficit causing the dollar to fall, gas prices will go up and so will oil.

One half of the private sector workers are earning less than $600 per week. If oil goes to $200 per barrel, then many will not be able to afford to commute. Suburban housing prices will fall. try air conditioning your home in Arizona, for example, or try heating your home back east. during the winter months.

The political solutions will come to slowly. If people cannot pay their bills or find jobs, the banks are in big trouble because all of their assumptions are wrong. The Fed cannot fight inflation and a falling dollar at the same time.

[Krikkit]

Add to the percentage cost for gasoline. Add the surcharge on every item purchased that is shipped by truck to its destination (nearly 100%). Now recalculate the real income of that average American. Then remove the top 1% of people who are so wealthy that they never buy their own gas, and recalculate the average real income.

I work from home so my fuel costs are next to nothing. But I'm having trouble buying food and making my bills. I cannot imagine what it must be like for a family where both parents have to work outside the home.

[outnow]

Add the rising health care costs, too. How people can make ends meet is beyond me. The truth is that they can't. Doing the math for the average person tells the truth that you will never hear on the Fox News. There is a long recession. The only question is where it will end. I predict the failure of major institutions in the US.

[Andman0121]

Regulation anyone? Anyone at all? No?...hm, God bless America I suppose.
(shakes head in disguist)

[arvay]

Welcome to the world of post-strike-on-Iran.

Except, of course, you can add one or more sunken aircraft carriers, thousands of dead Americans in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf, and worldwide attacks on American interests by enraged Muslims. Plus all those unforeseeable consequences that so mess up the neocon world. Maybe Chavez will shut off oil exports to the US. Will we invade Venezuela?

Just a moment to reflect on the absolute craziness of what our glorious leaders have put "on the table."

[blueshield]

"Would" look like? "WOULD"? What kind of delusional thinking is this? "WILL" look like. Is there any responsible journalist or news outlet who actually doubts we'll see $200 bbl oil? No wonder we have problems with energy policy.

[OlongapoEd]

(sarcasm on)
Hey, not to worry! The right people would be making plenty of money and the smart men would do just fine. Why, it would be a great way to weed out the stupid and lazy!
(sarcasm off)

[tcagle]

To paraphrase another poster, Social Darwinism, si, Biological Darwinism, no.

[Idiocracy]

(sarcasm off)

Hey, leave the stupid people alone... Just dont let them vote.

(sarcasm on...)

[Krikkit]

Not to mention the perfect way to return American workers to the wage slavery of the last time Lassez-fair economics was in full swing, in the late 1800s.

Remember that old "iron law of wages"? How about "social darwinism"? Oh, yeah, the really wealthy liked those 'good old days' when life was good and no one was poor, at least no one that mattered.