"Whistling Past Dixie" Author: Obama Will Lose The South

THE interim between the primaries and the parties' nominating conventions is, according to ancient writ, a fertile period for presidential campaigns to talk about how they plan to expand the political map in the fall. This year is no different. Barack Obama's strategists are suggesting that the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party can parlay increased turnout among black voters into a string of victories in the South.

Given that roughly half of all African-Americans live in the 11 former Confederate states, the idea seems intuitive enough. It's also wrong. Prying Southern electoral votes away from the Republicans is not so simple.

Two pervasive and persistent myths about racial voting in the modern South are behind the notion that Mr. Obama might win in places like Georgia, North Carolina and Mississippi.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[4real]

And Mccane will lose the election.

[kinnycut]

From a strategy point of view it is not whether or not Obama can win states in the South. It is whether or not he can poll close enough in those states as the election nears. If he stays close in the polls in many of those states, it will force McCain to spend money and time in states that Republican Presidential candidates usually take for granted in Presidential elections. African Americans will vote in large numbers, so that is a known variable. The constant unknown variable is how many new voters will come out for Obama. McCain can't afford to assume absolute victory in those states, and neither candidate can afford to trust any poll because pollsters only poll those voters who are most likely to vote based on previous presidential elections. Voter drives and surges in Democratic registration in some states change that dynamic. The question that plagues the pollsters is not the number of voters that may come out among the voting blocs they are aware of, but the total number of voters that may come out to vote that have never voted before. This is the unkown variable. This is the potential November surprise.

[Retrofuturistic]

Well, I think he just lost me too, when he cozied up to the evangelicals and said he would continue a form of George Bush's faith-based initiatives. That is a deal breaker for me. If you have sworn to uphold the Constitution, you don't compromise with upholding the Constitution. If Obama cannot vigorously support the separation of church and state, he has lost my vote.

[SeanGardner]

He will lose most Southern States, but, I do expect for him to win Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Mississippi, and, Georgia.

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr (a former Republican) is one of the variables that will ensure these victories.

[Gary47]

Well that's a no-brainer. The South is a hot-bead of racists, hard-core conservatives, gun nuts and religious extremists. I think it'll take a little longer for education and tolerance to trickle through the barriers. But I hope I'm wrong.

[Ramirez]

You are, and bigoted as well.

[jsinclair]

Another conservative plant at the once-reputable NYT?

[Ramirez]

Absolutely! The author is hardcore.

'Thomas F. Schaller, a professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, is the author of "Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South."

[oliv0128]

I don't know about all this business. I live in NC, and things have been looking relatively good for O there. I'm hopeful. Plus, it's not all about the presidential race. It's also about mixing things up, giving normally neglected states attention during the campaign, and bolstering enthusiasm for downticket candidates. For example, we have a very important senate election in which Sen. Dole's seat might actually be up for grabs (fingers crossed!). It's important for the enthusiasm, organizing, and dollars that a presidential campaign can generate to be spread around in the South as well!

[Graywolf48]

In all probability he will lose the South. What's "news" about that? What would be "news" is if he did win the South, or even more of the South than any other Democrat has recently. If he can win Florida and Virginia, he'll be in the catbird seat. Obama will sweep the West Coast and all of the Northeast including Indiana, Ohio and PA. I predict, as do many others, he'll top McCain in overall popular votes and will win more than 300 in electoral votes. Unless, of course, he's caught in bed with a dead woman or a live man.

[southernfried]

i doubt that, i'm from the south, born here, grew up here, the has changed over the years

i think obama might win, we need some serious change

[leftoflennon]

Oh NYT, you all seem to have ur knickers in a twist!

He will NOT looose the south!

[naschkatze]

The NYT backed Clinton and McCain in the primaries so they will cut of their nose to spite their face and back McCain over Obama in the general. They are probably in a real snit that the local girl didn't win. I agree that he will take some southern states. NC, GA, and MI do look good, and the Times left out Virginia and Maryland. Aren't they considered southern? At least I thought Virginia was. Right now Florida seems competitive, and I'll bet Texas will be competitive too.

And Obama will pick up some red western states.

[GeorgeMilquetoast]

If the Democratic Party wants to be competitive in Mississippi, then I suggest they campaign with the following concept:

KATRINA = REPUBLICAN

I believe that even Trent Lott was pretty miffed about Dubya's mismanagement and effective abandonment of FEMA responsibilities. Remind folks that the government is supposed to _serve_ and assist We The People during times of disaster and emergency.

Heckuvajob!

George Hussein Milquetoast

[GeorgeMilquetoast]

Interesting. "Dubya" is allowed. "Du_m_b_ya" is not.

[GeorgeMilquetoast]

If the Democratic Party wants to be competitive in Mississippi, then I suggest they campaign with the following concept:

KATRINA = REPUBLICAN

Heckuvajob!

George Hussein Milquetoast

[BBackSoon]

If the racist bastards give this election to McSame then we can burn our last American flag because that will be the end of these United States.

How stupid people will vote against their own good because of issues like race or gay marriage or stem cell research is beyond me. Perhaps we get what we deserve. What a shame.

[shengirl]

let's remember the racists in PA, too, not just in the south

[NoFactsJustTruth]

Anobody betting on ANYTHING the New York Times says anymore just hasn't been paying attention.