Chuck Todd: Electoral Map Shifting To Obama

A month ago, NBC's electoral map showed an exact tie between Obama and McCain -- including 'base' and 'lean' states, each had 200 electoral votes. But on this month's map, Obama has opened up a 210-189 lead over McCain, with 139 electoral votes in the toss-up column. Watch Chuck Todd explain:

[WATCH]

Comments

[Graywolf48]

I think Todd is a partisan hack and his figures really don't jibe with many others I've seen. I think you'll get a better snapshot nationally by checking out:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/icon.html?

This site update whenever there are new polls, usually several times a week.

[brizzle]

First, thanks for the site. That's a great resource.

Second, the figures on this site are basically what Todd is saying.

Third, I'll return the favor with this:

http://www.electionprojection.com/president08.shtml

[phyllip]

As far as I can see Chuck Todd is repub. I bet this map really hurts him. I dont want to see him on Meet the Press. He is okay on MSNBC but not on Meet The Press.

[Wildcatdiva]

I don't know what happened to my comment but I agree with you. He's a Republican, and I don't want to see him anywhere.

[cnick]

I have also come up with the conclusion he is Republican, get him out of there.

[jcwtts1]

He's not a republican he's using the real clear politics average of all polls. Take a look at the site. Chuck Todd is the best numbers guy in the biz, and if the numbers aren't to your liking give money to O and help him win. But don't shoot the messenger.

J

[Megaflow]

Personally, I don't care if he's a Republican, as long has he reports the news fairly. And that seems to be the case. If we have to glean subtle hints as to his political leanings, then he's doing OK in my book.

Now the "reporters" on Fox... they're another species entirely.

[eXcommunicate]

I fail to get any hint of Chuck Todd's political leanings, which makes him a good journalist in my book.

[apikores]

michigan also...zogby on 6/21 had obama up by 14 points.

[apikores]

that map has NH as a swing state, which might not be entirely true. the last NH poll, Rasmussen on 6/18, showed Obama ahead by 11 points. Mccain hasnt had the lead since april. most reputable sources fivethirtyeight.comm, etc) are putting nh in the light blue category.

[Pquilson]

Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls: There is no electoral map until November. Any reporting on "electoral" votes at this point is speculation, nothing more, and nothing less.

[MaineMike]

He is not reporting electoral votes; he is presenting his projection of electoral votes, which is obviously speculation. What else could it be at this point?

[NTO08]

Useless...we all know how such speculation ends up being dead wrong...

[abby4ever]

I agree.

[Exit]

What fool would vote for McCain?

[kkuate]

Those fools who would want McCain to extend a pardon to Bush for his Iraq War related crimes.

[abby4ever]

Like that fool Bill Clinton whe he extended pardons?

[AnotherHuddy]

Why, John McCain of course!
~s~

[pbfishtaco]

I saw a McCain bumper sticker today. That means SOMEBODY is going to vote for him.

[jennbeez]

Did it say "John McCain...Bush's Third Term"? Because that's not really a McCain sticker.

[MissT]

Have you not heard or read what the PUMAs have to say? They are willing to vote against their own interests in the belief that they will be punishing Obama.

[Scarllatti]

I WISH CHUCK SHOULD BE GIVEN THE CHANCE TO HOST "MEET THE PRESS" AFTER THE SAD DEATH OF MY BELOVED TIM RUSSERT.

CHUCK ID VERY SMART, ANALYTICAL AND "APOLITICAL" JUST LIKE TIM. I HOPE MSNBC WILL NOT WASTE THIS AWESOME TALENT.

[OmegaZ]

How come nobody ever asks why the elections are always so close??

[harriscrl3]

Cause smart and stupid people are even. I'm hoping smart people outnumber stupid ones this election but I'm not holding my breath. When smart people finally one the most they allow stupid people to take it away from them and we had 8 years of stupidity and madness.

Carol

[cnick]

Hopefully it is even, I was sort of thinking it was stupid 52% like Norman Mailer said before he died.

[anfractuous]

Yes, that is mysterious. It's the result you might expect if everyone were flipping a coin, not reacting on an either intellectual or visceral level to the candidates and the state of the nation. You could argue that at any particular time, sentiments would prevail in one direction or another. So, maybe we're all just flipping coins, and flattering ourselves otherwise. If it is fixed, the tweaking must be exquisite to make it come out so perfectly close and not lopsided - kudos Diebold!.

[NTO08]

The elections are close because there is a divide that splits almost evenly between those who have conservative and those who have more liberal tendencies...it's not a surprise...this year will be no different...Obama will lose by 3-4 points, is my call...time will only tell, of course...

[InfinteShibumi]

You mean the primary elections, right? I'd guess that's because they're on the same side! When you get down to it, there was very little daylight between Clinton and Obama's platforms.

[RRK70]

I have never liked Chuck Todd's analysis. The map Red/Blue map he has been referring to all season is based off of the 2004 election, as if time stood still for the last 4 years and no one's opinions regarding Bush or the economy or Iraq have changed. Many of the political pollsters are also political "consultants" and polling seems increasingly unreliable in this country. Add to that the fact that it is in the MSM's to make this a close race to justify the coverage. I could care less what other peope think about the candidates. Reduce all the polls and spend the time on COVERING the issues so the voter's can make an informed choice.

[lvogt]

I agree that there should be more time on issues and less on process.
I believe though that Todd's maps are all based on current polling. One does have to take into account historic trends so starting with the last actual vote is valid. In any case the trends are positive.

[williamg]

Don't you think the 2004 map is a good base to start off of? Of course nothing stays stagnant, but the 2004 map didn't look very different from the 2000 map.

[Seven7s]

Agreed

[Scarllatti]

Well, Chuck has to base his current predictions on "something" which is the 2004 electoral map. I believe that at the end of this process, the electoral map which Chuck is basing his predictions on will be unrecognizable because voters (AMERICANS) would have vented their disappointment on the White House and GOP at the poll.

I get "itchy" in my hands each time I remember that November is just four months away. I cannot wait to get to the polls to punish the GOP. I am not even considering voting for any candidate with "Republican" attached to his name this election season. That is to show you how horrible I think the GOP is.

[JackND]

There are more tossups that that map indicates. Montana and North Dakota are also true tossups...

Today's Rasmussen poll in North Dakota...the first since before Jeremiah Wright become a household name four months ago, has Obama and McCain tied 43-43.

[standard]

Those aren't particularly convincing reasons to dislike Todd's analysis.

The Red/Blue map looks like the 2004 map (and the 2000 map, for that matter) because most states have strong partisan majorities that don't change dramatically from election to election--only gradually, over time. Currently, New York, California and Hawaii aren't about to support a Republican for President nor Idaho, Utah and Alabama a Democrat. Sadly, even major catastrophes ("Bush or the economy or Iraq") have little short-term impact on how most states vote in national elections.

Polling in this country is actually very reliable, once you know which polls are politically neutral and have good track records. However, when an election in any given state is close, no sample can possibly indicate more than "the election here will be extremely close". That has everything to do with the mathematics of probability and sampling, and nothing to do with political bias.

Polls help campaign leaders determine where to spend their time and money. By reporting to the public what political professionals already know, Chuck Todd and his kind help smart voters spot which campaigns are well-run and which (like Rudy Giuliani's or, arguably, Sen. Clinton's) are planned and conducted by incompetents. Some voters actually prefer managerial competence in a President over political ideology.

If it's changes on the map you want, keep an eye on Iowa and Virginia this year.

[shm259]

Student Facebook Group to help Relieve Senator Clinton's debt- join & Spread!

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=22628776750

[BarackMan]

No way......she would not have debt had she done the right thing when it became obvious to the rest of the same world she could not win. The was all her!!

Obama '08!!

[InfinteShibumi]

She still shoudn't have debt: those 18 million supporters she claims she has could each chip in $5.00 each and she'd be AOK. The fact that they're not turning out their pockets for her is perplexing. Maybe they don't like Mark Penn, either.

[Gericault]

Nice sentiment, but no way. She hasn't conceded her campaign. She just suspended it.. She endorsed Obama as the front runner but technically she hasn't ended her campaign. As far as I'm concerned as long as she is still holding the option to resume her campaign she still owns the debt.

[loax]

The gap will grow and grow and grow. We have had enough dictators to last us a lifetime. McBush will be more of the same! OBAMA 08!!!

[LawSource]

AGREE 100%!!

[Meggie]

BS for now.
It's important that Dems use all the excellent talking points the repubs gave them the past couple days. AMERICANS ARE WHINERS out of Phil Gramm's mouth blends nicely with McCain saying last summer that Americans are too lazy and incompetent to pick lettuce for a season - even for $50/hr.
And ALL Americans using any part of Medicare, and any American expecting to rely on finding a doctor if they need Medicare in the future, needs to be reminded every day that a Democrat, who advises and supports Barack Obama, and is battling his own serious illness, showed up for work yesterday to make sure all citizens can have some health care - even the poor and elderly on fixed incomes.
Make sure that Ted Kennedy's brave action yesterday is a gift that keeps on giving this election season.

[LawSource]

PHIL GRAMM is ALSO A LOBBYSTS Responsible For The Foreclosure Crises and Big Oil Increases at the PUMP!!!

MCBUSH CAMPAIGN IS A MESS FULL WITH LOBBYSTS TIE TO BIG OIL and Corporate BANKS!!

[Gericault]

Why is it the only place I keep hearing this is on Huffpo? Rhandi Rhodes spoke of it today . I want this shouted from the mountaintops!

[arglebargle]

Do you know, are Gramm's remarks on video? That should help enormously with ads...

[cnick]

And, McCain saying the Social Security is a disgrace. Get it in an ad NOW!!!

[ObserverinVancouver]

Yes, but not great quality. Also, Gramm was talking to Washington Times. If they can keep their video out of the hands of anti-McCainites, they may not give permission to use it (but I am completely ignorant of law re this).

[CtJean]

Yes, gramms remarks are on video. I saw them a few times last night. MSNBC showed them. Very interesting. What a jerk!

[bogues]

This is encouraging at a time when all the news coverage is so slanted in favor of McCain. I hope that all democrats, republicans and independents who want to see our country move forward in a more fair and positive way will vote for Sen. Obama in November.

[jlc0426]

AMEN, TO THAT!!!

[williamg]

Chuck Todd or Nate Silver for Secretary of Facts.

[GolfingDevil05]

I'd love to see Chuck Todd get the nod for Meet the Press when Brokaw finishes his temporary assignment there.

[bygollymissmolly]

Not me. I see Todd taking a decided right turn. I'm not sure what brought it on, but right now Mc'Cain is his new best friend.

[levibatgirl]

Bobble head girl needs to go back to The View.

[nibblybits]

Are you talking about Meredith Viera? Because she can kick your ass and still be among the best in the business.

[thegreatgiginthesky]

I would watch Viera any day of the week over Katie Couric