Poll: Obama Beating McCain In Arizona

Washington Independent:

In a sign of continued weakness in his home state, an online poll shows Sen. John McCain trailing Sen. Barack Obama by 3-percentage points in Arizona. The poll also shows the candidacy of Libertarian Bob Barr is having a significant impact on McCain's campaign by siphoning off conservative voters nationwide.

The Arizona poll was part of nationwide Zogby International poll that put Obama ahead in total electoral votes with 273 to 160 for McCain. The poll found 11 states with 105 electoral votes too close to call -- including Arizona. McCain's campaign in June included Arizona among its list of swing states.

(Matt Mahurin) McCain not only faced problems with Independent voters, he is losing a small, but potentially lethal voting block of the GOP right to Barr. The former Republican congressman from Georgia is pulling just enough voters in many states to shift the balance to Obama. Whether this bloc will remain in Barr's camp on election day could determine the outcome.

Read the whole story: Washington Independent

Comments

[gditty]

When McCain is up in a poll, MSM starts the "what's wrong with Obama" song, when Obama is up, everyone questions the validity of the poll. The fact that the poll is even close in McCains homestate should be reason to question the senators campaign.

[KQuarksSuperKollider]

Hell when 0bama is up in every national poll like the latest Pew poll that has him up by 8 points they say what is wrong with 0bama.

[PumaAnn]

Rasmussen shows Obama now only 1 point ahead in the GE.

[poropo]

maybe you dont know rasmussen is a fox news contributor, i dont and will never trust rasmussen cos
it is own by a republican. i can only trust pew & zogby and cbs poll, abc poll and nbc/wash post, base on last 3 election.

[KQuarksSuperKollider]

I don't know where you get your numbers from, probably Faux News but these are the latest poll numbers. Poropo is right about Rasmussen in all the polls he has 0bama with worse numbers including state polls.

The worse news for McBush is that in the latest two non-tracking polls 0bama is up by 8 points. Tracking polls are usually only a measurement of the political "noise" of the week anyway.

General Election: Mc Cain vs. 0bama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample 0bama (D) Mc Cain (R) Spread
RCP Average 06/18 - 07/10 -- 48.0 42.5 0bama +5.5
Gallup Tracking 07/08 - 07/10 2661 RV 48 42 0bama +6.0
Rasmussen Tracking 07/08 - 07/10 3000 LV 47 45 0bama +2.0
CNN 06/26 - 06/29 906 RV 50 45 0bama +5.0
McLaughlin (R) 06/26 - 06/29 1000 LV 46 38 0bama +8.0
Pew Research 06/18 - 06/29 1574 RV 48 40 0bama +8.0
Democracy Corps (D) 06/22 - 06/25 2000 LV 49 45 0bama +4.0

See All General Election: Mc Cain vs. 0bama Polling Data
Intrade Market Prices for General Election: Mc Cain vs. 0bama
0bama M cCain
Intrade Real Time Quotes 0bama 64.8 Mc Cain 30.5

[AzRealProgressive]

In 2004 I remember John Kerry had a 19% and more lead in some polls and I believe led in every poll. On election day before the polls closed Kerry was deemed the winner by questions asked at exit polls.

And Kerry still lost. Polls seem to change, or to be irrelevant as the time draws nearer.

[TiffanyHusseinBanned]

Why can't McCane close the deal?

[GuyFawkes]

And Pew has him up yesterday by 8.

[KQuarksSuperKollider]

Republican pollster McLaughlin (R) has him up by 8 today as well.

[jsarets]

538 has some cautionary words about these Zogby Interactive polls (which are conducted with a completely different methodology compared to the usual Zogby tracking polls):

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/zogby-interactive-data-dump.html

[mc2714]

Yeah, the guys at 538 quite properly weight Zogby interactive slightly higher than a guy in a banana suit in front of the grocery store with a clipboard

[DaOne]

Don't talk to that guy, he's McCain economic advisor!

[NoahVail]

Well, I resent that remark. You spend a day in AZ in a banana suit and see how you feel.

Doesn't matter. If the truth gets out about this guy, then we will beat him like a red headed stepchild- even in AZ.

[jupitor]

Seems the republicans does have another candidate in Barr! Maybe I will look at him! I always voted republican and I switched this year to demacrate becaus mccain scares the heck out of me! Maybe, Barr is a good option. Guy, do you have any infor on this guy? I like Obama a lot, and the direction he will take us in, but like to look at all candidates!

[GuyFawkes]

I'll give this credence when I see Obama actually in Arizona. Then you know their internal polling is showing something going on.

Until then, I'll consider Az and Utah and Wyoming as the only safe Western states for McDubya.

It would be sweeet if Obama got Nevada, Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico.

[Alfannell]

Bob Barr is become the Ralph Nader of 2000!

[edwarvir]

Good!!!! I think I will donate money to Bob B.

[Alfannell]

I'm donating to both Obama and Barr so I can start operation Chaos!

[Kim445588]

That's exactly what I was thinking. Help him to advertise a little more, and really get the word out to all the nuts that consider McCone to be a centrist.

[Agentprovokatur]

Hmmm . . . maybe it's time for a Reverse "Operation Chaos"?

[leftoflennon]

As much as this may be true...

zogby has be notoriously unreliable­...

[4wehttam]

What poll hasn't been? Gives me hope that we can actually beat McBush on his OWN turf......­.........L­MAO. This is Grrrrrrrrr­rrrrrreatt­ttt news!!!!!

[leftoflennon]

We will beat McBush, but lets not make tooo much of this.

[johnnygoodwud]

i smell a nov. landslide.

[Cookie100]

from your mouth to God's ear

[oafishcad]

I haven't seen a single report on the MSM about Barr. Why is that?

[4wehttam]

He and Nader were on this weekend with Rick Sanchez on CNN, but your right nowhere else do we hear anything about how much an influence Barr could possibly have. Especially if he starts getting more Ron Paul votes.

[idest]

There was a good article on him and the Libertarians in the NYT a couple weeks ago.

[Kim445588]

I don't know, but we need to start complaining about it. He needs to be given as much air time as McClone! Fair is fair.

[IRepTheKing]

Thanks Barr...

[campaignman]

I guess the people of Arizona know him best.

They may also have heard him say that the Social Security system is a disgrace.

It is the most effective anti-poverty program we have ever created. I guess being married to a millionaire makes that irrelevant to him.

[wanj]

I live in AZ and I can tell you this man is loathed here... by conservatives! I occassionally listen to their radio stations to hear what we're up against and just yesterday several people called into a show to say they wouldn't under any circumstances vote for McBush. They wouldn't pass the vote to Obama though but instead they'd stay home.... Woooohooo!­!!!!!!!!!!­!!!!!!

[doctorwang]

.......or, as the article mentioned, they'll go to Barr. Arizonians have has a long tradition of ignoring the status quo and doing what they damn well please. It is quite possible that Obama could give McCain a run for his money in the Grand Canyon State!!!

[Chillinout]

He is calling a program that he benefits from a disgace, (he gets about $23,000 a year from SS), which is something I have never understood. He makes $400,000 a year. It seems to me an instant way to help out SS is to put an income level on it. If you make more than a certain amount of money a year, you should not be eligible for SS.

[jupitor]

I think you have something there chillinout! I think if you make $275,000.o­oo a year you should not be intitled to Social Security, untill you fall under that level or retire and income is below that level. Mccain draws veterans Disablity and he's a millionair! He certainly doesn't need that extra money! it should be the same way for veterans too!

[loax]

Arizona see him for what he is - a warmongerer who has no idea on how to put us back on track!

[gopSTEALSyourTAXmoney]

He voted against a 'MARTIN LUTHER KING HOLIDAY' 7 years in a row. That's what I remember.
And before that, sticking up for Charles Keating, although Keating was sent to prison, thank God!

[Chillinout]

Bob Barr, the new conservative Nadar.

[MissKaren]

Bob Barr and the libertarian agenda reminds Arizonans of Barry Goldwater, I think. BG would have been outspoken in his contempt for the neocons and the theological element of the GOP. He would have come out as pro-choice and against evangelica­l/fundamen­talist incursions into Constitutional government. McCain is unfit to lick Goldwater's feet, much less bind his sandals.

[Donnat]

What I can't figure out - who are these 2% who continue to support Nader even though he has culpability for keeping the Bush crime family in office another four years?

And who are these sad, deluded 35% who keep supporting McCain? Come on America, you can be fat, you can be lazy, but don't be uninformed.

[Budokan]

Online polls don't mean anything. McCain is going to win Arizona. Deal with it. He may lost the other 49, but he's gonna win Arizona.

[4wehttam]

LOL. Deal. As long as he loses the other 49, he is MORE than welcome to Arizona. It's the least we can do........­..........­.my friend.

[DarkWitch]

No he's not! He needs to lose big here, then we need to get him out of the Senate.

Go Bob Barr

[MBryant]

Arizonans might be wondering who that McCain is that's running for Prez and what happened to their Senator... The John McCain that's been their Senator for awhile has been a moderate - California-style (thing Goldwater, Schwarzenegger) Republican who is practical and passionate about a few things that it makes sense for him to be passionate about. That guy is missing - he's never in the Senate and rarely in Arizona (except when hosting barbecues).

This other guy is a torturing, fear-mongering, right-running neocon, who's scooping up all fhte Cheney and Rove acolytes he can and out-Romneying Romney in his wannabee Huckaby jive.

Maybe an evil twin separated at birth?