Oil Prices May Drop, But The Dollar Won't Go As Far Anyway

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MARTIN CRUTSINGER | July 16, 2008 05:45 PM EST | AP

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House Financial Services Chairman Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., right, with Rep. Scott Garrett, R-N.J., left, and Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., center, makes a comment during a hearing with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, July 16, 2008 on monetary policy and the state of the economy. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

WASHINGTON — The price of a quart of milk, a plane ticket and a host of other products rose in June at nearly the fastest pace in a generation, taking an even bigger-than-expected bite out of the buying power of Americans.

In the latest shock wave to hit the economy, consumer prices rose 1.1 percent in June from the month before, far faster than the expected rate of 0.7 percent and almost double the reading from May, the Labor Department said Wednesday.

The only time in the past quarter-century that monthly inflation has been that high was in September 2005, when prices jumped 1.3 percent, mostly because Hurricane Katrina shut down oil refineries and energy prices spiked.

Consumer prices are up 5 percent over the last 12 months, the fastest one-year change since 1991.

As prices rose last month, take-home pay took a hit. Adjusting for inflation, weekly wages fell 0.9 percent in June, the third straight monthly decline and the biggest drop in almost four years.

The news was the back half of a one-two punch on inflation. On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that prices at the wholesale level were rising by the highest annual rate in 27 years.

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Before Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wrapped up two days of testimony and repeated his concerns about inflation, also noting the housing slump, financial turmoil and credit troubles.

"We will work our way through these financial storms," he said.

The Consumer Price Index, which came out Wednesday, measures not just what Americans pay for goods but for other purchases, including services like health care and haircuts.

Higher energy costs led the way, with a more than 10 percent rise in gasoline prices. More expensive vegetables, dairy and beef pushed up food costs.

Core inflation, the figure that excludes energy and food to measure other costs, rose by 0.3 percent in June, the fastest rise since January. Airline tickets grew almost 5 percent more expensive, the biggest rise since the summer of 2001.

The report illustrates just how quickly prices are rising _ not that the economic squeeze is anything new to most Americans.

Marsha Marvel, 45, an elementary school reading specialist from Springfield, Ill., said she had created a weekly household budget to hold down expenses and the family was cutting back on trips and restaurant meals to save.

"This summer, I feel like I'm paying $10 into my gas tank every day, so we've really had to change our budget," she said. "We're just watching our money so much more closely than before."

Carla Civitate, 50, a Des Moines, Iowa, hairstylist, said she and her husband were also struggling with the soaring gas prices.

"We've adjusted our driving styles a lot with gas prices," she said, even though one of their two cars is a hybrid. "I just basically drive to work and home and we try to do our errands en route."

On Wall Street, the inflation report was tempered by falling oil prices. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 276 points, the biggest one-day jump in three months. Oil prices are still about 80 percent higher than they were a year ago.

The Fed released the minutes of its June 24-25 meeting, revealing officials were worried then about inflation and believed their next move would be to raise interest rates.

That would follow a period of aggressive rate cuts that were designed to keep the economy from sinking into recession because of problems in the housing market and the financial industry.

Still, private economists said they believed the Fed will not seriously contemplate a rate hike for many more months, worried about upsetting the fragile economy.

In Congress, Democrats seized on the inflation report to push a second economic stimulus package because the inflation risk is crimping the Fed's room to cut interest rates farther.

"We're now seeing danger for the economy on both sides _ growth is too slow and inflation is too high," said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y. He called for "mainstream, bipartisan solutions for our economy."

White House press secretary Dana Perino said President Bush was "very concerned about the impact high prices are having on Americans, especially those who are on lower incomes."

But the administration did not signal any increased willingness to consider another stimulus package beyond the $168 billion measure that is delivering payments to 130 million households.

Separately, the Federal Reserve said that industrial production rose by 0.5 percent in June, the best showing in nearly a year. Economists that primarily reflected the end of a strike at auto parts supplier American Axle, and forecast the rebound would be short-lived.

___

Associated Press reporters Ashley M. Heher in Chicago and David Pitt in Des Moines contributed to this report.

 
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About five years ago,I had to stay in Europe for an extended period,so I went to the bank and asked them to give me an outlook on exchange rates on my almighty dollars.They told me that they saw a value of $1.60 within a few years.Unfortunately,I didn't have enough to make a killing but was able to use it to charge for a while after I returned giving me a good discount.The point was that they were uncannily accurate and the ECB saw the result of spending like a drunk sailor in a whorehouse on a long losing war with borrowed money.My apologies to sailors and professional ladies,they do not deserve to be lumped with an administration contemplating another war in the cauldron of the Middle East.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:01 PM on 07/17/2008
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Since we all realize that our government isn't going to anything about gas prices, who is??? The price of gas isn't tied to supple and demand. It's tied to the stock market and that is crap!!! Our use of gas has dropped 4 percent over the last year, yet the price has sky rocketed. This is crazy and it's driving businesses out of business. And still our governement does nothing. The off shore speculators are still at it and no regulations are in place yet by our government. Again I ask why???

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:49 AM on 07/17/2008
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Why, you ask? Because the only thing that matters to the elite, whose puppets hold the positions of power in government, is themselves. You and me and companies going bankrupt is nonexistant on their radar screens. Now, quit whining so they can get back to sucking the economy dry. Or go ahead and whine, they really do not care. Whatcha gonna do 'bout it?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:06 PM on 07/17/2008

The Media is trying to get you to believe that the speculators are at fault, all they do is ride the trends, up or down. Ten years ago when they were riding the trend down to 10 dollars a barrel no one was blaming them for anything, no they are riding the trend up and they are getting blame for everything.

This is as silly as blaming the KKK for racism, as if it were the KKK that caused white flight, or it was the KKK that wont hire black men. The whole thing is silly. Speculating is a risky business and it is only for those willing to lose it all and then some.

Now stop whining because the whole thing is in your head.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:32 PM on 07/17/2008

The U.S. announces diplomacy talks with Iran and oil drops $10 per barrel. Who has who by the b**ls ?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:23 AM on 07/17/2008

I got an idea for a stimulus package, put a cap on credit card interest rates and lower the criminally high ones. That would put extra money in a lot of americans pockets.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:11 AM on 07/17/2008
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SO.. THEN WE'RE PAYING THE SAME FOR GAS RIGHT??????? IT'S ALL IN THE NUMBERS BABY!!!!!!!!!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:00 AM on 07/17/2008

America is not "fighting X wars simultaneously" ... it has INITIATED "X wars simultaneously."

And that, my good friends, makes all the difference.

To a neo-fascist's way of thinking, "all you need is a great big bomb." Run your warships and submarines all over the planet, threaten governments worldwide, and they sign surrender-documents and hand you the keys to their kingdom. Easy as pie...

But there are 6 billion people on this planet, and 80% of them just don't think the way "we" do. They see a hostile, belligerent nation ... being run by criminals that said nation refuses to apprehend ... that "borrows from itself" millions of dollars a minute and expects its dollars to be accepted worldwide at-par. What kind of business would accede to that?

"Oil prices," among other things, push right through the illusions that are dumped upon us by politicians. They're something that hits every American plebian squarely in his or her own pocket, in a way that 'Fox News' never can.

There are ways to stop a hostile nation ... that do not involve the use of any weapon at all.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:29 PM on 07/16/2008

I heard Paul Klauss on MSNBC yesterday say that free speech does not protect a person's ability to call for the overthrow of the Gov't. Paul Klauss's daugther was raped and killed by some nut job a number of years ago. The Killer was put to death. My point is that you are right maybe 80% of the planet doesn't think like Neo-facsist, but unfortunately 80% of Americans do. This is the main reason why we need change.

Republicans who vote for McCain want to continue the Neo-Fascist ways, as do the female Hillary Clinton supporters who think Hillary was robbed by Obama. The truth is Hillary tried to run a campaign that was media bias proof. It wasn't only sexism, it was blantant Anti-Democrat bias in the media. If you watch Obama's media coverage closely and compare it to McCain's and Bush's during the election cycles you will see it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:07 AM on 07/17/2008

These photographs depict a troubled politician, and elite economist that cannot mask the consternation of roughly a century of corporate regulation of Washington, D.C.! It is difficult to conceal the emotional burden of corporate profiteering at the expense of suffering American whiners! Corporate mechanisms of accessing the United States Treasury are becoming more visible to American citizens, and economic accountability is a horrifying reality!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:39 PM on 07/16/2008

Good points, Outnow! I believe this is just the beginning of a very long cycle that may take many years to repair. In my opinion, gas will never be "cheap" again and home ownership will become just a dream for many Americans. Not a pretty picture, is it?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:34 PM on 07/16/2008

I'm not in the least worried!

Our President has told us that everything is going along just fine, but I'm not basing my optimism on that fact. No sir! He's not always completely accurate all the time, though he tries very, very hard.

Rather, I figure it's just about time for all the wealth that President Bush has given to the wealthy through tax cuts to start to trickle down and make all of us in the lower brackets rich.

Cargo cult, anyone?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:13 PM on 07/16/2008

Well, it took the usual few months for the always-out-of-date national statistics gatherers to document what has been known to the American public for quite a long time. Glad to know the bean-counters have finally caught up with us.

So, let me just cut to the chase here ...

There are lots of people on K-street in the Washington Beltway who make a tremendous amount of money saying things that would make Dwight D. Eisenhower spin in his grave. (And maybe Ulysses S. Grant, too.) And basically, that message is that "if you are the nuclear big-man-on-campus militarily," the entire world will roll over and play dead at your Shock And Awe.

Apparently not.

The world can see quite clearly that the United States of America has "turned rogue." It's senseless to try to oppose the USA militarily, but it's also quite unnecessary. The entire American infrastructure is built upon "endless borrowing" which is, in turn, built on a misguided treaty negotiated by (still alive!) Henry Kissinger. A treaty that said that all the oil in the world must be bought and sold in Dollars.

The "manufacturing juggernaut" of the 1940's is Gone Gone Gone. The "invulnerable" nation that devises to take that ghost's place is ... well ... quite vulnerable indeed.

Guess "World War III" might have to be delayed just a little while longer. Darn...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:10 PM on 07/16/2008

The banking crisis is not going away anytime soon. Banks do not trust each other because of the over-leveraging and the hiding of the risk.

First, there will be inflation, then deflation. Then a very long recession or even a depression. The dollar has lost credibility and will be dumped by many investors.

The slow-moving economy, inflation concerns, high oil and other industrial commodities and now agricultural ones as well, boosted by ethanol production pressures consumers.

Real estate and low grade debt and equities (and some other type debt instruments, especially real estate related but increasingly including corporate loans and private equity funding) are the three major asset classes. All three asset classes are in trouble.

I predict that more large banks will fail and up to half of the hedge funds and a substantial percentage of private equity firms in existence today.

Unless the interest rates at the Fed are raised to 4% the dollar will continue to fall in free-fall. Higher interest rates slow the economy further in a damned if you do; damned if you don't scenario.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:48 PM on 07/16/2008

I don't think that "the Fed's little knob" has any bearing whatsoever. If I am a reasonable businessman, interested in making my living by ... say ... selling bottle-caps to anyone in the world who would like to buy a bottle-cap ...

... if "bottle-caps ARE MY WORLD" ...

... do I really give-a-damm if the Federal Reserve raises or lowers the prime interest rate at which banks in America can borrow from each other?

No.

Short answer: no, I don't.

What I -do- care about is whether or not I'm actually going to get paid for my bottle-caps. I also care that the payment that I receive, when I actually receive it, is still worth as much as the money I had to pay, a few months ago, to the sheet-steel supplier.

The American Dollar has been a phony deal to me ("Mister Bottle-Cap Mogul") for a VERY long time. As a purveyor of bottle-caps, I quite-sensibly have encouraged my European customers to pay me in Euros. And I'm keeping those Euros in European banks. I pay very-clever bankers to help me control my exchange risks.

Traders in the most-important commodity of all .. petroleum .. don't have those choices. Thanks to a very-strange treaty negotiated 34 years ago, they have to use Dollars. "Like it or not?" Ahem! Guess what: they're going to do something about it. "Let the Almighty Dollar fall where it may. I got bottle-caps to sell..."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:18 PM on 07/16/2008

Its a little more complicated than you to try to make it. With the dollar falling, it makes Oil cheaper for the Euro holders. If you buy your bottle caps from another person that only accpets Euros, but you live in America you'd be losing money on the conversion

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:11 AM on 07/17/2008

Oil prices will drop? Surely, Mr. or Mrs. Headline-Writer, you are joking...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:02 PM on 07/16/2008

Missed this link to the Congress actually doing what needs to be done in the face of our intransigent administration. Stop Filling the SPR: http://oilspot2.dtnenergy.com/e_article001098224.cfm?x=b11,0,w

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:48 PM on 07/16/2008

It simply does not matter. The Chinese can absorb 70,000 barrels per day in about 25 minutes.

:-)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:18 PM on 07/16/2008

Look who's telling us to drill now:

http://tinyurl.com/5gjqsk

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:43 PM on 07/16/2008

Look who is telling us not to drill . . . the same environwackos as always.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:56 PM on 07/16/2008

Has anyone noticed that the oil price is down as they stopped filling the SPR? http://www.bloglines.com/preview?siteid=10308174&itemid=98
This link says it will stop in August, but there was a dead link that reported that they stopped on July 1. Why is this information secret?

Here's some more on the SPR: http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/spr/spr-fill.html
This one says it's fill rate is 70K bbls/day. http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/13/news/economy/spr/index.htm That's about half a million barrels/week. It explains about 1/6th of this report from the WSJ:

"Oil stocks rose by 3 million barrels in the week ending July 11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration."

Seems like a better answer with more immediate results than starting drilling has been here all along. Stop filling the SPR.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:27 PM on 07/16/2008

What happens to the SPR is not a secret. They have their own website:

http://www.spr.doe.gov/

If you google "SPR" it's the first link. You can contact them. It's your tax dollars at work, after all.

Anyway... 70k out of 20M is... 0.35%. Truly impressive, not. Especially, if you know that 70k barrels per day, if it could be completely converted would make 2.9 million gallons of jet fuel. A single 747 can load up to 63,000 gallons. In other words... the filling of the SPR equals a mere 50-100 flights a day.

Sounds like a solution? Not to me.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:11 PM on 07/16/2008
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Since you're doing the conversions, KTM, how many "military days" is that. You know what I mean....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:11 PM on 07/17/2008
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