Polls Show Close Race In North And South Carolina

Talking Points Memo:

A new set of polls from the Carolinas show that both of these states could be close this Fall, despite the fact that neither has voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976.

The new North Carolina poll from SurveyUSA: McCain 50%, Obama 45%, with a ±3.8% margin of error.

And here's Public Policy Polling's (D) survey of the much more conservative South Carolina: McCain 45%, Obama 39%, and Bob Barr 5%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. The X-factor here is Barr, as much of his vote would presumably have gone to McCain in a two-way race.

Read the whole story: Talking Points Memo

Comments

[Plowboy]

How the people vote isn't what counts; what counts isw how the votes are counted.
Look at those recent studies showing that up to 50% of some types of voting machines are defecctive. One study claims tyyhat up to 31% of the vote nationally could be flipped without detection.
Do you still believe in Democracy in America?
Do you believe that the proven cheaters are no longer cheats?
Do you also believe in the tooth fairy?
And, seriously now, what do you think of these great polls? No, seriously!

[southafrica4obama]

Racists parlor

[JJeff88]

Maybe I'm just spoiled, but I wouldn't call Minus-5 points (NC) and Minus-6 points (SC) "a close race."

But it's certainly encouraging that Sen. Obama is within spitting distance in both states (neither of which - with all due respect to some Obama supporters - I'd heart-of-hearts consider "battlegrounds").

Here's what confuses me:

When I use "most recent" polling results to handicap the state-by-state electoral count, I come up with Obama 301; McCain 237 (Note - in doing so, I give both NC and SC to McCain).

So why - especially when you consider Obama large-state pluralities of +13 (NY), +24 (Calif) +11 (Ill) etc. - is Obama only ahead by +3 to +6 in national polls (since to make up lost ground, McCain would have to be ahead in many more smaller states in order to keep the national race that close)?

[Egalitare]

For those states, that is close. Close enough so that record turnout by Democratic voters would win in both cases. NC is the better shot: there are enough Dems in high places to minimize the effect of various voter suppression efforts. And the NC Democratic Party is arguably better organized than just about every other state in the old Confederacy.

[captnEarl]

You are right on it! Makes you wonder how they do the national polls don't it?

[Posterella]

I can't seem to get a grasp on what is happening in this Country. Do we ALL have to be lined up outside of our banks for people to realize that George Bush LITERALLY destroyed our economy, created havoc around the world and made us all less safe? How could people seriously consider voting for McSame? There is a disconnect here and I just don't get it. Someone PLEASE explain it to me.

[NeoStar9]

I tend to have the feeling that at best most people in this country are simply uninformed and at worst just plain stupid and gullible. It could very well be a combination of the three.

[Faith101]

Wow, if SC is in play: there is a God. I personally thank everybody for their efforts on the ground. We dems have got to win this year. We just can't afford for McCain to be president at this point. His time has passed. We are in the 21st C. You need a sharp mind to deal with things of today.

[CEPHALUS]

Obama is only behind in nc because school is out,as soon as school is back in session McCain will be toast.
The base and driving force of the campaign is college students and right now most are on vocation.
They will be back refreshed and ready for the general.

[GuyFawkes]

But are these college students residents of NC? Or are they voting absentee in their states. Always a distinction.

[DeadCivilian]

Fearless prediction, November 3rd, 2008:

Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, etc. all pronounce race "too close to call".

November 4, 2008: Diebold wins another one for the oil regime!

Ooh, aah: Fascism

[lennix]

these polls changes all the time do we really now

[loax]

Come on Carolina's!! Do your eally want a warmonger who knows nothing about the economy for the next 4 years? Stand up for America and end the Republican oppression!

[SeanGardner]

This is such great news.

I am still predicting Obama will win 6 Southern States: Missouri, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina. So its encouraging to see those numbers.

I know how much both states have changed over the years.

My nother's family is from North Caolina, and is one of the oldest black families in Raleigh, NC. I know that the state is not the tobacco state it used to be, and is now a technology center with the very constituencies that powered Obama in the primaries: blacks, college students, young professional, educated white liberals, etc. I think in the end, he will win NC.

South Carolina is a little more surprising. My father's family is from that state. Actually, my paternal grandmother used to serve food in the family house of Strom Thurmond in the early 1920s, before he became a Senator. Now I know that the "Strom Thurmond" thing is still there, SC has definitely made some strides.

My family on both sides has been involved in politics and social justice from the 1860s on up to the present day. And they are telling me that their neighbors and co-workers are starting to "believe" in ways they never thought possible.

And Barack Obama is the reason. And if he takes SC, it will hinge on two factors: the will and enthusiasm of the Obama forces, and...Bob Barr.

PS Barr will probably hurt McCain in Georgia too, which looks good for Obama at the moment.

[CintiBlue]

Thanks for the on-the-ground comments, SeanGardner. I find this kind of analysis far more valuable than the so called professional assessments.

[Higbyguy]

Sean Gardner:
Thanks for the incredible analysis. I agree with your assessment totally. I would also add that the mainstream media pundits have no clue as to how huge the African-American turnout will be. That segment of the voting public has been sitting out a lot of elections without a candidate they can get passionate about. As someone with Mississippi roots, I can tell you that this state is primed to go Democratic and because it has the largest per capita black population in the country, it will go for Obama. There's a new paradigm in place now and I'd much rather read the more perceptive comments of folks like Sean than every empty talking head on CNN who still talks about "toss up states" like this was 2004.

[Charmed]

(smile)...­.were having an Obama Jam on Friday to continue registering voters....­.NC is working hard.

[Witchitalineman]

Keep it up. Great job and thank you for your efforts!

[Daly]

Battleground states keep in mind that Cain = D r a f t