Reuters/Zogby Poll: Obama Has Seven Point Lead, But He's Losing Independents

Reuters:

Democrat Barack Obama has a 7-point lead on Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race, and holds a small edge on the crucial question of who would best manage the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

More than a month after kicking off the general election campaign, Obama leads McCain by 47 percent to 40 percent. That is slightly better than his 5-point cushion in mid-June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination fight against New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

But Obama's 22-point advantage in June among independents, a critical voting bloc that could swing either way in the November election, shrunk to 3 points during a month in which the candidates battled on the economy and Obama was accused of shifting to the center on several issues.

Read the whole story: Reuters

Comments

[nosanity]

there was a moment all to brief where i thought you bho might be a man . clearly i have changed my mind

[KillTheMessenger]

Yes, you have changed your mind. And he did not. Neither did I. All the difference in the world.

[filo]

Sean? Is that you?

[naschkatze]

I thought HuffPo was not going to deal in polls. Oh well, Obama is doing quite well within state polls, and the new ABC/WaPo shows him leading McCain by 19% on the economy. He has to go on offense and make the economy the number one issue, not "national security" a.k.a. the fear card.

[starboymikey]

He has to go on offense and make the economy the number one issue, not "national security" a.k.a. the fear card.
__________­__________­__________­__________­_____

The worse the economy gets--and it is going deeper into the crapper each day--the more vital it is for Obama to make this his central theme.

The Republicans have only the fear card to play. That's it.

If McCain exaplain exactly how his economic policies will differ from those of George Bush (except for, "I will eliminate earmarks") it means we will be in for anothr four years of Bush's economic policies. Remember those? Tax cuts for the wealthy, endless billions for Iraq, and floor sweepings for the American people.

[nosanity]

the man clearly stands for nothing , except change , his position when ever he is told to . rid the world of nukes no thanks oduma . mad works { mutually assured destruction }, and peace only comes to those willing to spill blood for it { see the founding fathers } to earn it . serving this country in the military is truly the highest of callings for without the best equipped best men willing to make such sacrifices the freedom to build your liberal theoretical construct would be null and void { see china }

[KillTheMessenger]

You picked your screen name well.

[Egalitare]

I worked for 7 years for an opinion research firm which did a pretty steady business in political polling "in season." Indie voters just don't have the same "political rudders" that Progressiv­e/Liberals or Conservati­ve/Traditi­onalists do: their opinions are likely to scatter all over the place until early to mid October.

It's sort of like they are trying on pants for fit: they may try on Obama "pants", then McCain "pants", then (some of them) Barr "pants", then Nader "pants" over and over again until they know they have to create a coherent picture of what their important issues/beliefs are.

The one thing that is consistent with those voters and the rest of us is that the economic picture they see just after Labor Day is the economic picture they will pretty much hold until Election Day.

[BassMent]

I'm not sure following polls day by day in July is the smartest expenditure of one's time.

But I think if this massive erosion of support among independents is real, it's indicative of the Obama campaign's misapprehension that the majority of independents are "centerists" or "Reagan Democrats," the sort that find the Dems to liberal and the rape-apes too conservative. I can tell you no word of a lie that here in Rhode Island this is definitely not true. With the exception of a few libertarian fans of Ron Paul, ALL of the independents I know (and there are a lot) are disgusted with the Democratic party because it's too conservative.

I don't think these independents are crossing over to McCain. I just think they're abandoning Obama, and I think FISA is the number one reason.

[gditty]

Losing independents to who? McCain voted the same way on the FISA bill.....

[AnotherMcIntosh]

"But Obama's 22-point advantage ... shrunk to 3 points during a month in which ... Obama was accused of shifting to the center on several issues."

And it's not over yet.

[KillTheMessenger]

Who are "independents" going to vote for if not Senator Obama? An obviously senile Senator McCain or a vote wasting NaderBarrB­aldwinMcKi­nney juggernaut-wannabe?

Please. Let's see this thing through until November and the American people as a whole will decide if they want something new or they want a third Bush term. The first two went really well for them, after all.

[EinChicago]

That's the problem with the term independents; it is used to describe a massive swath of disparate voters. Hardcore right wing libertarians are independents. As are hard core left wing socialist worker party members. As are that massive number of "undecideds" in the middle. Assuming "independents" means center left only is a huge fallacy.

[walk0nwalls]

STOP LISTENING TO THE SAME CAMPAIGN PEOPLE AND TRY WINNING FOR A CHANGE

Cautious, focus testing, stat-whoring pablum-pushing centrist idiots.

[research]

Rahm Emanuel: the golden boy. everything that's wrong with Dem leadership in one person, and they want to promote him.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/16/rahm-emanuel-wants-to-be_n_113018.html

Contribute to Kucinich to change the democratic balance of power.

Maybe we can get impeachment and prevent those pardons.

[GuyFawkes]

the poll du jour.

my head is spinning. well, at least they ALL say Obama's ahead.

But unless it's state by state, don't bother me.

[milo9]

FISA was a huge miscalculation.

[wanked]

Fisa, Aipac, Faith based initiatives, nafta......flip flop / not on top...

[research]

FIS did it for me. I don't expect to like everything my candidate does, but a constitutional law professor, shredding the 4th amendment, the total loss of privacy, stopped all my contributions (over 1k$) to Obama. I'll vote for him, I might even contribute again, but right now my money is going to the ACLU, Kuicinich, Sheehan, Real democrats.

[JadedAggie]

I can't understand how after all these decades of polling they haven't figured out you must ask Independents whether they view themselves as Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal. For some ridiculous reason they seem to have this misconception that all Independents are in the middle when large portions are actually far right and far left in their political views.

[Trollstakeyourmeds]

Very good point. I never thought of it this way.

[KillTheMessenger]

The real problem for everyone is that Senator Obama is neither left nor right but he is completely his own. Suddenly one has to think before pulling the lever. The presidential election is not like a Las Vegas slot machine any more.

[meanguy]

bushlips! obama has been on the left his entire career...this 'post-partisan' myth is as ridiculous as 'elvis and bigfoot's love child' stories

[nibblybits]

You don't get it. It's not about where he is on the left-right spectrum; it's that he made promises and articulated some positions in the primary that he has now reneged on for political expedience. What does that sound like? Sounds like the same old bs to me.

[BBackSoon]

I think that if you take any sub set of people you will see trends but no rule is absolute. I am a college educated Middle aged white male and I heartily disagree with many that match me in that particular pidgin hole. The idea that all women vote one way or all blacks vote one way or that all independents vote one way is insulting.

Now aside from that point I think the FISA vote was a mistake but I also think that the pain of it will ease over time. As will the defeat of Hillary for her supporters.

[paulbikes]

A recent poll shows that 50% of people think polls are worthless, while 50% hold them for solid truth. 30% in the middle Wont eat green eggs and ham.

[scouserinlondon]

Nearly had me there! Nearrllly!!

[nomobull]

and its probably another poll saying the opposite. no more polls please

[meanguy]

the sandbox is about 4 paces to the left...should be plentry of room for your head...if not, additional sand is available at home depot

[zendem1]

There's no sand where your head is. But it's really dark.

[MicahD]

Obama, stop trying to play to the middle. just be yourself again. FISA was a mistake you have to live with, learn from it. There are many right and middle of the road folks who are embracing certain, specific progressive positions and when you are seen as abandoning those positions, they think you are another weak-kneed dem who is calculating and without spine.

[KillTheMessenger]

I don't think he made a mistake, at all. He just did not vote the same way you would have.

[dayala]

yes, he did...he just did not vote the same way he PROMISED!