Brzezinski: Surge In Afghanistan Risky, Some McCain Backers Want World War IV

All of a sudden, everyone seems to be in favor of sending more troops to Afghanistan. As Barack Obama encourages Europeans to dispatch more NATO forces and John McCain says that U.S. troops could be sent in greater numbers, the idea that a bigger military footprint is needed has become something of a consensus in the political mainstream.

But Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski is not on board -- though it's not the first time President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser has cast a skeptic's eye on the usefulness of dispatching great numbers of troops to the country. In an famous 1998 interview with France's Le Nouvel Observateur, Brzezinski admitted his own role in funding Afghanistan's Mujahadeen in 1979, thereby "increasing the probability" that the Soviets would invade a tough, demoralizing, mountainous theater for combat.

And it's with a similar perspective that Brzezinski now doubts the that the answer to what ails Afghanistan is more troops. "I think we're literally running the risk of unintentionally doing what the Russians did. And that, if it happens, would be a tragedy," Brzezinski told the Huffington Post on Friday. "When we first went into Afghanistan to overthrow the Taliban, we were actually welcomed by an overwhelming majority of Afghans. They did not see us as invaders, as they saw the Soviets."

However, Brzezinski noted that just as the Soviets were able to delude themselves that they had a loyal army of communist-sympathizers who would transform the country, the U.S.-led forces may now be making similar mistakes. He said that the conduct of military operations "with little regard for civilian casualties" may accelerate the negative trend in local public opinion regarding the West's role. "It's just beginning, but it's significant," Brzezinski said.

His own program for improving the state of affairs in Afghanistan -- where U.S. casualties have surpassed those in Iraq for two months now -- revolves around pragmatism. He believes Europe should bribe Afghan farmers not to produce poppies used for heroin since "it all ends up in Europe." Moreover, he thinks the tribal warlords can be bought off with bribes, with the endgame being the isolation of Al-Qaeda from a Taliban that is "not a united force, not a world-oriented terrorist movement, but a real Afghan phenomenon."

Brzezinski, who has endorsed Obama, was far more critical of a few figures now surrounding McCain, who he suggested were pushing the presumptive GOP nominee towards a radical foreign policy on issues such as Iran.

"Well, if McCain is president and if his Secretary of State is Joe Lieberman and his Secretary of Defense is [Rudolph] Giuliani, we will be moving towards the World War IV that they have been both favoring and predicting," he said, calling that an "appalling concept" (and adding that by their lights, the Cold War counted as World War III). "So it depends on who are the principal officers. If it's [Richard] Armitage, or if it were to be Brent Scowcroft, I think it would be very different."

Asked who he would like to see in a potential Obama cabinet, Brzezinski said: "I think [Sen. Chuck] Hagel. I would like to see a bipartisan cabinet. I think we need one very badly -- and we did well in the Cold War when we had one. I would say Hagel and [Sen. Dick] Lugar would be very good Republicans [for Obama]." He also cited Sen. Joe Biden as a potential Secretary of State, in which case it would also be possible to "keep [Secretary of Defense Bob] Gates in the job for a few months."

Brzezinski said such a cabinet would be an important step in redressing the increased partisanship of foreign affairs in recent years, adding: "I think there is a tendency, because of the very complexity of the issues, for solutions to become polarized and more extreme. ... Republicans move toward neocon-ish formulas, and Democrats [follow] idealistically escapist formulas. In either case you don't end up with the necessary mix of idealism and realism."

Comments

[WMcP]

It's good to see somebody cite that (in)famous interview with Le Nouvel Observateur. It was not Brezinski's finest hour. He's been doing better lately although I'm not so sure about the ideas he's expressing here. A McCain-Lieberman-Giuliani troika is enough to give anyone nightmares.

[MsLiz]

I feel a surge in my colon at the thought of Giuliani as Sec. of Defense.

[openhand]

The surge is like an painkiller to a headache. It only masks the problem

[openhand]

There is a belief that ones opponents are evil and the solution is extreme prejudice. Robert McNamara in the movie the Fog of War makes the point that to have any chance in a conflict one has to understand ones opponent. This led to a successful result in the Cuban Missile Crisis and the absence of it to a disaster in Vietnam.

The lie that ones opponents want perpetual war (hate freedom) serves only special interest groups as in Orwells 1984 oligarchy.

Unfortunately, it is not in the U.S. interest to accommodate this as it would force them to make sacrifices. I have seen how my own president Mandela was labeled a terrorist because his ideals threatened Western privilege. Martial Law (surge) was used by the Apartheid government to destroy the opposition but failed because it did not respond to the issues that created the conflict.

[Garvagh]

Good points, penhand! John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy observed, after the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962, that if JFK has taken the advice of his military commanders, the result would have been World War III.

[outnow]

We aced them out of the oil in Iraq but they aced us out of oil in the Caspian Sea. So after all the expenditure of lives and treasure, we are no further ahead in the grand chess game. If we are out for world domination, I would rather follow Zbig than Kissinger and the neocons. At least Zbig can learn from his mistakes.

[CaptainVideo]

Two more divisions in Afghanistan would help because right now our troops are stretched too thin. But the main emphasis should be on alternative strageties, not on reliance on brute force, which would get us into the same kind of quagmire that the Russiand found themselves in. For EXAMPLE, we should buy off the poppy growers. If, FOR EXAMPLE, the warlords in any region were to get generous financial aid only if no poppies were growing in their region, the local warlords would act to stamp out the poppy growing on their own. That way we would not have to try to do it ourselves and be perceived as the bad guys taking the local peasants' best way of earning a living away from them.

[beaupritchard]

Zbig is someone I might listen to ...

[EBennett]

Because his counsel to Carter was no good? Brzezinksi is another person who has been wrong so many times that you would think they would just go away.

[buggedabouttheus]

Just when I was going to write Dr. Z off as an old coot whose time has passed he convinced me on a couple of points: Bribe 1.) the poppy framers and 2.) the Taliban that going in the direction of a "surge" for Afghanistan is wrong. I also agree that a home grown Afghan military is a better force than any we or NATO can come up with. No one can defend your home/neighborhood better than you. You know it and the people like breathing. The best fighters are those fighting for their homes at home (See: US Revolution., US Civil War and Viet Nam)

However, I think that contrary to a "surge" that we staff the area better and rout out the Taliban to a point where the bribes work. Plus, we really must catch Osama. Regardless as to my agreement with Dr. Z about the non-international super organized Al Qaeda we need to get Osama just like the continued pursuit of WWII criminals it is important to the national psyche.

Now, critique of McCain's possible cabinet members: Dead bang on!

Go Dr. Z you rock!

[FogBelter]

Let's be even more practical and recognize as we are bogged down in the Middle East our geopolitical and economic competitors get stronger ... empowering Iran is the obvious one, but the EU, China, Russia, India, and countries of Latin American have also benefited for the US being trapped in the Mesopotamian Tar Pit ... If we want to toil in the Middle East for the next hundred years I'm sure the rest of the world will oblige us.

[YellerDawg]

Alexander the Great couldn't do it. The Soviets couldn't do it. We, of course, have all the answers for that ancient civilization. Zbig remembers what history has taught us. The original quagmire was Afghanistan.

[Okieborn]

America had better be listening to Dr. Brezenski !!
This man is no IGMO !!
I am trying to vote for Sen. Obama, but he keeps putting up road blocks with these new ideas !!
God forbid that Mccain ever gets elected !!
If Sen Obama keeps up his 360's I will definately stay at home come the Nov. election !!!!!!

[RockySoldier]

Brzezinski is about as respected within the international relations academic establishment as it gets. He often thinks outside of the box, has reasoned arguments for his assertions, and has many doctrines and policy ideas held in high regard. He's very, very well respected. Possibly even more so than the guy the media considers 'the Godfather of US foreign policy', Kissinger. Brzezinski often ends up with better ratings on his policy ideas. Kissinger is just dragged out and plopped in front of cameras when Bush wants legitimacy for a bad idea. Brezezinski, on the other hand, offers a reasoned, forward thinking, multi-lateral approach to international problems. Interdependency is not lost on him, and that's saying a lot.

[escobar]

That is one heck of a comment from an ex General who was certainly not a peacenick.
What sort of people are running things when even a guy like that has such things to say?
Well fighting a war for absolute lies and torturing people, pretty much tells the story.
It is amazing that there are still Americans who are so totally clueless they want to endorse the actions of the most evil fool who ever sat in the White house, by voting for his clone.

[uhappytoo]

Ex-general? Who? Brzezinski never served in any military; not in Canada where his family lived during WW-II. Not in his native Poland, nor in the United States. So to whom do you refer as ex-general?

[wdw101]

what army was he serving as a general???? carter?

[gusvidal]

HE IS RIGHT. BUT THE PROBLEM IS THAT MOST AMERICANS DON'T DO ANALYTIC THINKING. WHEN THEY FIND SOMETHING BRAINY 'AND DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THEY JUST REJECT AND ATTACK. MOST PEOPLE STILL BELIEVE THAT IRAQ WAS A SUPERPOWER, LIKE RUSSIA OR CHINA BECAUSE THEY WERE SUBTLETY TOLD IT BY THE WAR MONGERS. FOR THE RECORD IRAQ WAS AND STILL IS A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY.

[outnow]

Just remember that one-half of the population has an IQ of less than 100. Fifty-percent are to the left of the bell-shaped curve, plus they are ignorant, having had little, if any education . To make matters worse, they are slow learners. Therefore, "you can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time......." Since many Americans spend all their time watching a television set and little, if any time reading books, and they don't really care very much...it appears to be a hopeless mess.

Going to war has such a macho ring to it. Peace sounds like a weakling's game. America's want a macho image. Having a brain or being educated is for "intellectuals."

[CaptainVideo]

The problem is that you can fool too many of the American people too much of the time.

(With apologies to James Thurber.)

[steamboat]

and MORE than 50-PLUS percent don't graduate high school in the major-cities of America. Only 25% in Detroit graduate, 31% in Baltimore, 35% in Indianpolis, etc., etc.....Oh, by the way, these folks vote about 90% democrat.

[Lion24]

Your caps lock is stuck?

[leduck]

"I don't know how WWIII will be fought, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Einstein

these desperate people who want to start wwIV, call it 4 because they consider the cold war WWIII
so you might have to update einstein's old comment:

[RockySoldier]

The Cold War WAS WWIV. In academic circles, it has been accepted as such for 10 years. It was a worldwide conflict fought by several states via proxy, specifically between two competing ideologies. The conflict encompassed every continent but Antarctica, was far-reaching, and had drastic implications for the global international structure and for the speeding up of globalization. it was a global conflict. Why is so hard for you to accept the moniker? What is your agenda here?

[meanguy]

"Why is so hard for you to accept the moniker? What is your agenda here?"

it's hard for some people to face the fact that we won

[FogBelter]

The NeoCons want to reclassify the Cold War as WWIII because they want to feel they were part of something bigger than they were ... we are still awaiting WWIII.

[openhand]

WWIII is underway and being waged against our beautiful blue and green planet.

[vonny]

I thought BO wants to send more troops to Afganistan? Isn't he going to take many from Iraq and send the Afganistan?
Meeka's daddy seems to be speaking against BO. .. well well

[RockySoldier]

He's not a politician. He's speaking on policy. How dare he take a non-partisan, principled, reasoned stance. Not in THIS country, you don't, Dr. Brezezinski...

[JohnTalbutt]

You have to understand that for years one did not try to speak strategically because the task was to expose the lying NeoCon chickenshits. All their lies poisoned rational discussion.

Now, when we start discussing strategy based on facts, a difference of opinion caught you by suprise. Get used to it. It happens all the time among smart people.

[Daisy1111]

Seems BO is not taking the advice of his own foreign policy advisor.

Because this guy IS his main middle east advisor.

Hmmm. Bo not taking the advice of experienced advisors. Sounds more like GWB every day.

[wdw101]

is this the peanut doctrine?

[joeyp404]

Yes, but in Obamaland, that would not be considered a surge. Don't ask me why. I can just hear it echoing in the wind.