Is Obama's Lead In Gallup Polls Stable Or Volatile?

If your heart stops with every dip and bump registered by Gallup's daily tracking poll, here's some welcome news: the race is more stable than you might think.

Emory University Political Science Professor Alan Abramowitz sends along a couple of interesting graphs that each plot Barack Obama's consistent lead over John McCain in the presidential race. In the first graph, each daily tracking poll since the end of the Democratic primary season is charted as a distinct data point, making for what looks like a wild ride:

Having some fun with those who would over-interpret this graph, Abramowitz said: "Look--Obama is surging! OMG, Obama's support is collapsing. No wait, he's surging again! Oh no, he's collapsing again! What happened to that 9 point lead? McCain's strategy must be working. All is lost--the end is near! I knew we should have nominated Hillary!"

Then Abramowitz steps back a bit, averaging the Obama lead from each daily tracking poll into 10-day data points, stretching from June 5 to August 4. Which gives him a rather stable-looking 3-to-4 point lead for Obama:

Explaining the optical illusion, Abramowitz says: "When you group the tracking poll data into ten-day periods it becomes clear that support for the presidential candidates since the end of the primaries has been extremely stable, with Obama maintaining a modest but consistent lead, and that almost all of the day-to-day movement in the data is simply random noise."

Or, in a somewhat shorter version of his attitude toward the ups and downs of the daily graph that gets turned over each day on cable news shows, Abramowitz says: "Never mind."

Comments

[lunchbag]

Unfortunately the polls suggest Ob campaign has not hit the right track and is vectoring all over the place. If your campaign is about change you gotta win over the undecided clearly and that's not showing, that includeee the Sturgis folks as well, as they vote also.

To bring change you have to change a lot of people's thoughts not just the uber educated, who are always open for a new idea.

The swing comes from those who are fixed in their thoughts, And that appears from the current polls a long way off for Ob so far.

[interestedinpolitics]

Oh, I don't know....I'­d say a 10 point lead in the most recent Washington Post poll for Obama with "white working class voters" bodes fairly well for his campaign. I'm no expert...I­'m just sayin'.

[flydoghead]

did you even read the article upon which this blog is based ?

[ChimpNchief]

Of course not. That would interfere with barfbags ability to make up his own facts.

[missionimpossible]

""People take pride in their ignorance"-Obama

Obama/Hagel 08

[wpiv926]

Watch after the conventions. Then after the debates. We will have a better idea then. But, if I were a gambling man, I'd say Obama by 3 points right now.

[Beachrunner]

All your base are belong to us.

[TN]

Your ignorant, go inflate your tires fool.

[eXcommunicate]

All your base. Base. Base. All your base are belong to us.

[nk007]

TN

May be you are a millionaire like the McCains, they don't have to worry about gas prices. After all they have Cindy's corporate jet to travel around. Otherwise, properly inflating your tires may save you a few dollars. With all of us being disciplined to do that we may be able to reduce gas consumption by about 3.3%. In comparison, off shore drilling may only net about 1.7% of needed gas consumption. NASCAR has been preaching efficacy of proper tire inflation, as a way to save gas for quite some time. Many experts, including Republican governors, have talked about the importance of proper tire inflation. So it must be people like you who are the real "fools" because you refuse to face up to the reality.

[ChimpNchief]

How about letting the air out of your head?

[GeorgeKaplan]

Getting a little tired of polls. I am more tired of people who attempt to interpret the polls. It's a close race and O and ALL Democarts should run like they are behind.

IT WILL BE A CLOSE ELECTION.

[Cil]

I agree with you, but then I don't!

I honestly don't think that this will be a close race. I think Barack will win by a landslide, but yes I agree with you, BARACK AND ALL DEMOCRATS SHOULD RUN LIKE THEY ARE BEHIND!

I really think that once BARACK CHOOSES HIS VICE PRESIDENT, things will begin to change SO FAST YOU WON'T KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING!

[RFBorjal]

The greatest danger to Obama is to play not to lose. He should be playing like he were 10 points behind with 2 minutes left in the ball game.

[Mildmannered]

It will be very close -- we all need to get out there and work to get Obama elected. Thanks

[rosal]

And who still believes the corporate, made for entertainment and excitement, polls? Polls and the MSM, one of a kind. I am sure people change their minds every single day.

[Cil]

I agree with you 1000%!

The only poll that matters IS THE ONE TAKEN AFTER THE VOTE ON ELECTION DAY!

[Ladyrantsalot]

Still, Obama should be polling higher than this. McClueless stands for everything that has gone wrong in this country for the past 8 years: continued Republican fiscal policies and astronomical deficits; occupation without end in Iraq; an energy policy that keeps us chained to the 19th century; the privatization of Social Security; shallow, nasty political campaigning; and a health care system that is driving us all to the poor house.

[cheshirecat831]

An awful lot of cell phone only people will be voting this year. The pollsters don't reach them.

Talking Pez Heads
http://sfbaysailingpix.com/pez2008p1.htm

[pupbayer]

It doesn't really matter in polls. Studies show there is no statistical difference in landlind users and cellphone users in this election. I think PEW is who did the most often quoted. You can google it if you are interested.

[olivia]

What studies?

[Cil]

Please tell me, since you are so educated in what the STUDIES SHOW, do they take into account THE FACT THAT NUMEROUS CELL PHONE USERS ARE THE YOUNG VOTERS?

TODAY'S YOUNG EDUCATED VOTERS, SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN FOR GRANTED, OR IGNORED!

I am really interested in THESE STUDIES, so please tell me what exactly I should google.

thanks

[caferide]

Like me!

[bamilt0]

I second that.

[CitizenYid]

The reason the polls don't reflect the pulse of the public is they don't call cell phones. There is a disproportionate amount of young people that don't even have land lines. These are the same young voters that are registering and voting in record numbers for Democratic candidates.

Polls are a tool of the past...

[tammany]

Exactly right. And when even George Will admits that the polls are under-reporting Obama's support, as he did on last Sunday's show, you know the polls are nonsense.

[nonconformist2]

True. Also, people who have caller ID and don't pick up their land line thinking it's a telemarketer. And when they poll only "likely" voters, this excludes "registered" voters who have not voted before (new voters) or voters who haven't voted recently and are fired up for this election.

Finally, the daily tracking polls vary widely depending upon the day of the week the poll is taken. Mc.Cain does better mid week, and O.bama does better on the weekends (a result of who is home to take the call and when). Any guesses which day of the week, the MSM cherry picks to support that talking point that the race is closer than it actually is.

[queensboro]

i would like to know what demographics are polled and why they don't come to my neighborhood, NEVER. polls schmolls. be there or be square PERIOD!

[Softnsweet]

So true.. I only have a cell phone. What the heck do I need a home phone for? I can take this phone everywhere and have unlimited minutes.

[tony2008]

landline should be banned. so outdated.

[tony2008]

I got iphone.

[RENREVARD]

i agree that the daily poll does mean a thing at this stage.Howe­ver the state polls do! Obama has spent a ton on money in FL..Mccain nothing. Mccain over took Obama 6 points in that state after both campaigned there.You can not discount all the state polls where Mccain has made it close or has over took Obamas lead.Obama has to do a better job like the Republicans do in rapid response.O­bama never challanges Mccain lies in his stump speech or Tv ads.Mccain states he supports this or that .However Mccains voting record does not back up his claims.

[Opinionater]

I will pay attention to the polls after the first debate.

[reliant1]

Try the state polls. Or the EV polls.

Obama 238 to McCains 167. This is with no leaners or toss ups.

Add those in and it's 322 to 216.

Daily polls are for the MSM to play around with and cause distractions.

[Vantunow]

I guess you are not supposed to post bad news.

For anyone who cares - Zogby came out with 42-41 Mc.

Zogby is no slouch. He nailed primary after primary during nomination process.

Can't give Mc any more openings, even for lies.

[AdLib]

Final Zogby NH Poll: 0bama 42% Hlllary 29% - 0bama +13%

Actual Results: 0bama 36% Hlllary 39% - Hlllary +3%

Zogby was off by 16%, the worst showing of any pollster.

In other words, you're full of the same substance McCaln's colon is.

[cdub1991]

For some reason, Zogby's polls have been all over the place and missing the mark. Not th best source until they can prove their model is valid.

[pupbayer]

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the race for the White House is tied once again-- Barack Obama and John McCain each attract 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%. McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53%. "

[rosal]

According to your own polls? I am sure there as scientific as the fun and exciment polls

[edwarvir]

Vantunow Whoever Zogby is I don't know but I do know Senator Obama has
a BIG LEAD IN THE POLLS OVER JOHNNY WAR NOTE TONIGHT

[gmlaster]

The polls have been wrong through this entire election. Remember, the polls said that Hillary was inevitable. These polling tactics are based on years of voter apathy, sampling from the ordinary pool of registered voters and ignoring college kids, blacks, latinos and others who traditionally don't vote as a block. None of that is true this election, so the same formulae for statistical analysis just won't work because they're sampling from the same pool of registered voters they've always used. They're not accounting for people who don't ordinarily vote but ARE voting in this election.

The only way to really gauge who's winning is to follow the money trail. This is a sluggish economy and people really don't have money to donate, but they feel so strongly about this election that they're doing it anyway. So forget the pundits, forget the polls, because they lie in an attempt to influence your vote. They want to make you think it's neck and neck because it's good for ratings and they're trying to swing the undecideds. But watch the money because people don't donate if they don't intend to vote. Also pay attention to how many people are donating, and how often. A small pool of big donors isn't as valuable as a big pool of small donors. Just ask Hillary. Donors still only get one vote each, so the donor pool is more important than the money pool.

[Vantunow]

Major Bummer - Zogbee (who would now be ceaslessly attack in order to try and discredit him) came out with 42-41 Mc.

That guy nailed Primary after Primary.

Brandenburg was a bad idea.

Acting too Presidential prematurely and scheduling snafu with respect to troops really reversed the tied.

There is time, severe damage has been done.

[theMightyT]

Why isn't mc cain doing better? why can't he get above 41 or so percent? he should be way out in front.

0bama's going to trounce him come november..­. mac just can't get anything going...

[kay]

Zogby may be "no slouch" but a poll that comes out 41/42 is useless. This poll has an effective margin of error of 17 points.

McCain could win by 60/40 and so could Obama. That's what that poll tells us.

He bothers releasing a poll that has 17 "undecided" or "not voting"?

What's the point? If the "undecided" is higher than 10 it's just a waste of time.

[dajay]

Yeah, and why isn't Obama doing better.

I guess a lot of AMericans are having a hard time deciding between Dumb and Dumber

[allonfla]

FInd me the poll where voters were asked if Brandenburg was a bad idea.

[rosal]

"Severe damage" Like in "confused" and "lack of mental agility"? Poor little McExxon, his ignorance is rubbing on his fans

[boogygran]

What planet are you on

[Heavenhelpusall]

This makes me think that's how a graph that measures emotions of a long term relationship or marriage would look. Up and down day-to-day, but steady, unwavering love over the long haul.

[booksnmore4you]

You mean its not peaches and cream all the time? I am shocked! SHOCKED, I tell you!

;-)