Is Obama's Lead In Gallup Polls Stable Or Volatile?

If your heart stops with every dip and bump registered by Gallup's daily tracking poll, here's some welcome news: the race is more stable than you might think.

Emory University Political Science Professor Alan Abramowitz sends along a couple of interesting graphs that each plot Barack Obama's consistent lead over John McCain in the presidential race. In the first graph, each daily tracking poll since the end of the Democratic primary season is charted as a distinct data point, making for what looks like a wild ride:

Having some fun with those who would over-interpret this graph, Abramowitz said: "Look--Obama is surging! OMG, Obama's support is collapsing. No wait, he's surging again! Oh no, he's collapsing again! What happened to that 9 point lead? McCain's strategy must be working. All is lost--the end is near! I knew we should have nominated Hillary!"

Then Abramowitz steps back a bit, averaging the Obama lead from each daily tracking poll into 10-day data points, stretching from June 5 to August 4. Which gives him a rather stable-looking 3-to-4 point lead for Obama:

Explaining the optical illusion, Abramowitz says: "When you group the tracking poll data into ten-day periods it becomes clear that support for the presidential candidates since the end of the primaries has been extremely stable, with Obama maintaining a modest but consistent lead, and that almost all of the day-to-day movement in the data is simply random noise."

Or, in a somewhat shorter version of his attitude toward the ups and downs of the daily graph that gets turned over each day on cable news shows, Abramowitz says: "Never mind."

Comments

[realistxxx]

AP/Ipsos today:

O - 47%
M - 41%

Since clinching the nomination the numbers have been remarkably stable. M still hovers in the low 40's and O still not regularly breaking 50. Worse news for M because he is very well known as a candidate and therefore his failure to get above 45% is a bad sign. Voters know him and most don't like him.

[williamg]

You are exactly right. After 26 years in Washington, and his natural celebrity, why does Mc Cain have a problem getting over 42%.

This is the troubling sign for Mc Cain.

[realistxxx]

The MSM meme is "Why isn't O doing better?" Brooks has an Op-Ed in the NYT on this again today.

The real question is why is M mired in the low 40's? He really should be doing better given his name recognition and Maverick image.

[williamg]

O bama smacks Mc Cain over tire gauges:

"They think it is funny that they are making fun of something that is actually true… It’s like these guys take pride in being ignorant"

[...]

"Instead of running ads about Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, they should go talk to some energy experts and actually make a difference­."

[JoeLib]

Thank you! It's like we didn't learn our lesson in 2004. When you get hit, hit back HARDER! Especially when the facts are on your side.

Obama and all the Dem surrogates need to stand up and stop taking crap from the GOP. McCain has nothing but vitriol and spit to sling at Obama. It all falls apart when met with a strong factual no-nonsense rebuttal.

Keep it up!

[eXcommunicate]

Where did you get these quotes? They are fantastic! Cite please.

[williamg]

Mark Halperin.

http://thepage.time.com/

[Vantunow]

Some awesome quotes. I hope I get to see the video tonight. Any link please?

[williamg]

Here is the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akjXqfvLu28

[steamboat]

November is the only that counts....­..........­..........­..BTW, that graph looks like the result of a lie-detector after my wife asks me where I been.

[williamg]

New AP/ Ipsos poll:

O bama: 47
Mc Cain: 41

[Roy49]

Here's the thing. The polls only reflect a minor fraction of the population. They are given to only about a 1000 people which is a fraction (less than 1%) of the 100's of millions of people in the United States. And they are done not by mail, internet, or cell phone. They are done by telephone (land line). Now let me ask you good people a question. Who has a telephone in their house these days? And if you do have one, how many of you answer it? So, how reliable do you think those Gallup Polls really are? They call older folks who’ve had the same number for decades. So, do you really think that Senator Obama and McCain are neck and neck? Please! On Election Day you folks are going to get a very rude awakening! Wake and smell the coffee folks...pl­ease! If the polls showed the true reflection of the population, it would show Senator Obama winning by a landslide every-single-day! But then, you wouldn't want to watch TV and the local news channels now would you? Then their ratings would go down and no one would profit. So reporting that the candidates are neck and neck brings more viewers and pays the bills.

Can anyone say "Landslide"?

God bless America!

Go to Google and type in “How Gallup Polls are conducted” (see for yourself).

[NYCBri]

Ummm... 3 - 4% = Margin of Error.

Considering how much and how often the republicans cheat, intimidate, and pass laws to hinder democratic voting, this is BAD news for Obama supporters. We need at least that 9 point advantage to even consider ourselves ahead. As it stands now, we are behind and should act accordingly.

[DrToketee]

And don't forget the Gallup poll is only Obama v. McCain. When one includes Barr and Nader with their combined 4-8%, almost their entire base comes straight out from the McCain voters. When the Barr and Nader percentages are posted, Obama has consistently averaged a DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD.

[MFM008]

Reminding you that bush "won" 2 very close elections.
Clinton won his first election by 5
Obama is predicted to win by 5 in the economic model.
He doesnt have to be ahead 10 points, he has to be ahead by 1 vote.
(oh and that electoral college thingy)

[Kwaayesnama]

Lets see my choice is John McCain or that smart black man Barack Obama?

My Choices are: John McCain who says the economic downturn is psychological? - Na! I'll vote for the smart black man.

McCain who says you are better off under George Bush? - Nope I'll vote for the smart black man.

Mc Cain who wants to continue killing more people looking for weapons of mass destruction that do not exist? - Gee! I'll vote for the smart black man.

McCain who believes that we should stay the course but is not willing to support the people he puts in harms way. - I'll take a chance on the smart black man.

Should I vote for a man that does not know that 9-11 was caused by Osama Bin Laden not Sedam Hussein? - Easy! I'll vote for the smart black man.

Vote for the man who does not know if the Sunnis or Sheits are our enemies? - No way I'll vote for the smart black man.

Vote for the man who helped put our government on the China, Saudi Arabia credit card? - Not a chance I'll vote for the smart black man.

Vote for the man with the worst temper in the Senate to have his finger on the nuclear button? - No way - I'll vote for the smart black man.

[xmw]

OBAMA'S LEAD IS GREATER DUE TO NON CELL PHONE POLLING.

[daveincolorado]

i understand that these polls don't mean much, but they still are frustrating. How can there be that many people still supporting a man who thinks his wife should compete in a topless contest? (Other than maybe the pigs in the audience in Sturgis.)

[MegInPA]

I wonder the same thing: How is it this race is even close?!?!

[shengirl]

I suspect a lot of people are not keeping up with all this preliminary stuff, and with the coddling [or benign neglect] the media has usually given him, they still think of the Year 2000 Mc C, the straight talker, the maverick, that's who they are supporting. I doubt they know that much about what he really is and how he's running his campaign. Wait till the debates, the ads, the tighter coverage as we get closer to Nov. It will inform more people that the 2008 model of Mc C is not the same thing as the 2000 model.

[BikerJim]

Hey Dave, as a fellow Coloradoan, and a biker from Colorado springs, I either recent or resemble those remarks...­.. LOL (maybe both)

[steamboat]

We had an annual army reunion in Colorado Springs 2 years back, you have a beautiful city.

Main reason I went was because this is where my mother was born. My grandparents were slovak immigrants and they use to take the immigrants, when they first came to America, and work them in the mines 14 hours a day everyday cheap labor. I didn't see no active mines when I was there. BTW, we did NOT make it to Pikes Peak (fog). But did go that 'Canyon of the Gods' or whatever it was called. Absolutely beautiful.

[bygollymissmolly]

How can there be that many people still supporting a man who thinks his wife should compete in a topless contest? (Other than maybe the pigs in the audience in Sturgis.)
------------------
Because people don't know about it. A majority of people in this country still think that Mc'Cain is still a "maverick" and a "moderate". That is because the MSM refuses to report on all Mc'Cain's flip flops and "gaffes" (more ignorance and lack of knowledge). If they reported on every gaffe the way they report on O'bama's and on every flip flop Mc'Cain has made, they way they do the rare flip O'bama makes, the race would be over.

The MSM has two vested interests in this race. The first is that they are by and large mostly subsidiaries of the RNC owned by rich Republicans. Even though Mc'Cain has been dissing the MSM for weeks now, they still are protecting him. The second is that they have a vested interest in making the public think the race is close because that sells advertising dollars for them.

[YellowDogInRedCounty]

The reason why is because that roughly 90 percent has already made up their mind for the most part. The fluctuation is due to the fact that they are not canvassing the same people each day. You can talk until you're blue in the face and these 90 percenters aren't likely to change their mind. Case in point - I've received several Emails over the last few days from my conservative friends criticizing Obama because there is no American flag on his plane. Well, I checked Snopes and found that McCain's plane doesn't have one either. When I sent that picture to those same friends, their response was basically "so what". I'm not going to change my mind, either.

The election is basically going to be decided by the other 10 percent and remember the national polls mean NOTHING - it's the state by state polls that count and in those contests, Obama is well ahead.

[mikeinwaco]

There are several factors to consider when looking at any of the polls right now.
1) the enthusiasm factor -- No poll can accurately sample the level of enthusiasm or the degree of
likely turn-out among Obama-friendly voting groups: Latinos, African Americans, young people, and
now white, low income folks. Participation is expected to set new records for Dems this time.
2) cell phones -- young people are not adequately sampled because of the widespread use of
cell phones among that demographic.
3) the military -- polls do not traditionally sample people in uniform in theater. Unlike 4 or 8 years ago,
the level of exhaustion and frustration among that group is expected to yield a much more balanced
vote this time
4) ex-patriots -- polls do not sample this group either. There are 4 million American citizens residing overseas right now, the majority of whom are expected to vote Democratic.

[GuyFawkes]

In AP/IPSOS poll released today and taken after the Europe trip and the negative attacks, Obama is back up by 6, 47-41, with solid leads among women, whites under 35, and all minority groups.

The odd thing about the poll is that with/without Nader and Barr, Obama's lead is unchaged, which is the first national poll I've seen where McW wasn't hit hard with Barr's presence.

Again, it's August. It's a national poll. But it looks like all the GOP and Clintonista gloating last week was, shall we say, "presumptuous"?

[Rianna]

I admit I do not know much about the trends etc., but common sense tells me that it might be a bit
too early to pay much attention to these polls. I am glad that Obama is leading even by a small margin, but I do think that the numbers would be more realistic after the VP selections, the conventions, and towards election day.

[Concerned1]

Polls are ridiculous at this point. They mean nothing. When you go and ask 100 people their opinion in an area that is republican, of course, the number will be high. The same for democrat territory too. November 4th will tell the real story.

The MSM promotes this nonsense except Chuck Todd. He knows the deal.

[BikerJim]

all of those variations should be removed with proper sampling techniques.