Is Obama's Lead In Gallup Polls Stable Or Volatile?

If your heart stops with every dip and bump registered by Gallup's daily tracking poll, here's some welcome news: the race is more stable than you might think.

Emory University Political Science Professor Alan Abramowitz sends along a couple of interesting graphs that each plot Barack Obama's consistent lead over John McCain in the presidential race. In the first graph, each daily tracking poll since the end of the Democratic primary season is charted as a distinct data point, making for what looks like a wild ride:

Having some fun with those who would over-interpret this graph, Abramowitz said: "Look--Obama is surging! OMG, Obama's support is collapsing. No wait, he's surging again! Oh no, he's collapsing again! What happened to that 9 point lead? McCain's strategy must be working. All is lost--the end is near! I knew we should have nominated Hillary!"

Then Abramowitz steps back a bit, averaging the Obama lead from each daily tracking poll into 10-day data points, stretching from June 5 to August 4. Which gives him a rather stable-looking 3-to-4 point lead for Obama:

Explaining the optical illusion, Abramowitz says: "When you group the tracking poll data into ten-day periods it becomes clear that support for the presidential candidates since the end of the primaries has been extremely stable, with Obama maintaining a modest but consistent lead, and that almost all of the day-to-day movement in the data is simply random noise."

Or, in a somewhat shorter version of his attitude toward the ups and downs of the daily graph that gets turned over each day on cable news shows, Abramowitz says: "Never mind."

Comments

[westreal]

PUMAs = GOP Plants?

Come on. . . what does it really stand for?

PS. I think it's going to be a blowout but I think it's good to keep the numbers close so Obama's base will be energized.

[honeydiva]

I'm so sick of this. I'm sick of this recycled crap that goes for news. Everyone knows that many of his supporters can't be polled. After this week, I'm turning off the tv for two weeks and leaving these sites alone until the convention. I've learned nothing here lately and I'm getting irritated with the stupidity.

[loax]

Tired of Polls already, have been for weeks. Just give us a break, will you?

[KBAR]

A 3 to 4 point lead for barry means a 13 to 14 point VICTORY for McCain in November!

[WilliamGossett]

I disagree -

There is no way Obama is going to win in November and this will be clearly signalled by the selection of a nobody for VP such as Evan Bayh (no disrespect to Mr. Bayh.) When George HW Bush selected Dan Quayle, he, too was a nobody but "HW" was not - he was well known and went on to trounce Dukakis in Nov 88 (granted - Mr. Quayle cost him a per cent or two but it was still a trouncing.)

Mr. Obama is an unknown and he is beginning more and more to look like an empty suit. I had been for him but if he chooses a nobody to be his VP, that would show serious errors in judgment and would disqualify him from the Presidency. If he can't inytelligently fight to win the Presidency then he can't be counted on for intelligent decisions as the Commander-in-Chief. If McCain were to then choose the very competent, albeit conservative, Mitt Romney, that would actually push me to vote for him - a Democrat to Republican switch (on the Presidency.)

Assuming a McCain-Romney ticket versus an Obama-nobody ticket, I would want to drill home to the Democrats that they cannot keep putting up born losers. The selection of a nobody by Mr. Obama certifies him as a born loser. Hillary would be his best choice because she knows how to fight and fight dirty - that's what it takes to win.

[triplbee]

Obama has consistently held a small but statistically significant lead in the popular vote. In the electoral college he's polling well ahead of McCain. But it's way too early to worry about polls. They won't start to mean anything until people really start tuning into the election after Labor Day.

[Welfred]

Puma Ann / First of all Puma's are idiots, secondly it is not close, the media just wants you to think it is.

[Grunty1]

PUMAs = GOP Plants

There isn't a difference.

[PumaAnn]

35 years.......straight Dem voter here.

You are so full of beans.

[vonny]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/magazine/20minister-t.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
here's who BO and Coward dean have running the national Convention.
Can we say blackliberation party?

[Actionmac]

saying it close and saying O.bama losing ground keeps folks tuned in and ad revenue rolling in...

Take that for all it's worth. The same cycle used when media kept saying c.linton had a chance to win. All she won was a $20+ million dept, that $1.50 from each of those 18 million voters could eliminate. mcsad is going to win is a trip down memory lane before he is retired from his political life.

[theMightyT]

very true! the race was over mid-March, really... the media flogged that horse as hard as it could!

I wonder if they're partly to blame for these splinter groups like PUMA. Making it seem like hill had a chance when she blew it for herself when she started the negative campaigning...

ah well. too late now.

[SpaceCadet]

I like the wild swings in the tracking polls. They give the TV pundits something useless but fun to blather about. If they didn't have the polls to fill dead air time, they might get bored and then get into some REAL mischief.

[PumaAnn]

Wild huh? 2 points to O, 1 to Mac.

yup.....wild

[ThunderclapNewman]

Didn't look at the graph above, did you?

[Gma11]

thank you for a bit of sanity

[DaOne]

Id rather see a weighted average, more recent data being given larger weight obviously when tracking polls over time.

[cdub1991]

I think the moving average, which this is, accomplishes the normalizing function. The only question I would ask is whether 10 days is the appropriate interval. I think most of the national polls use 3 days. Not saying that's more correct--I don't know.

[PumaAnn]

What lead? It's neck and neck.

[DaOne]

Not if you look at projected EV.

[rosecar]

No PUMA your McCain is not neck and neck.

But please to throw a hissy fit about this. I know PUMA can only have it their way.

[Coinyer101]

you didnt read the article again.read before you spout.

[PumaAnn]

I check in with RCP daily. It's neck and neck.

Today's lead editorial is about O's obvious problem with voters. The promise to change red states to blue is clearly not happening. The race is down to swing voters. AH's editorial today is on this issue, too.

So you can think I'm full of beans if you like.

But this race is neck-and-neck.

PumaAnne's prediction?

Mac will win by 6 points.

[brizzle]

Just like the Obama-Clinton race was neck and neck, eh?

A 3-4 point lead is statistically significant...and it IS a lead.

If you can find 3 days in a row that John McCain has led in multiple polls, then we'll talk...until you find that evidence, Obama is leading.

[ConcernedAmerican]

You know what was missing from these polls PumaAnn?

Hillary Clinton's name......