Military Strike On Iran Nuclear Facilities Could Backfire, Study Warns

Washington Post:

A military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities would probably only delay the country's progress toward nuclear-weapons capability, according to a study that concludes that such an attack could backfire by strengthening Tehran's resolve to acquire the bomb.

The analysis by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security found that Iran's uranium facilities are too widely dispersed and protected -- and, in some cases, concealed too well -- to be effectively destroyed by warplanes. And any damage to the country's nuclear program could be quickly repaired.

Read the whole story: Washington Post

Comments

[ibsteve2u]

Like a study is going to stop somebody motivated by greed and/or religion from doing something stupid...or is Iraq to be forgotten so quickly?

[curmudgeon3]

From the main article --- "...'Following an attack, Iran could quickly rebuild its centrifuge program in small, easily hidden facilities focused on making weapon-grade uranium for nuclear weapons,' said principal author David Albright..."

For a visual sense of how this might unfold, check out the online video clips of the scene from Fantasia, where Mickey Mouse (as the Sorcerer's Apprentice), attempts to stop the broom by destroying it with an ax, only to make matters far worse.

Perhaps there's a lesson to be learned from Goethe's example.

[SanityNow]

What is the difference between a "surgical strike" on a nuclear plant, with toxic fallout resulting in the death of millions - and sending millions to die in death camps, as Hitler did?

[studlyguy]

So anyone with a brain knows this,so that leaves out M c S e n i l e,people of America think don't do a foolish thing ,we know O b a m a must get elected,need a level headed diplomatic attitude in this world,not war mentality M c S e n il e would be a disaster.

[bronceye]

If we truly want world peace, we must imprison all of the chaffeurs in the world. We let Hitler's driver skate and we've had 60 years of total unrest.

[helonias]

Sooooooooooooooo what happened to love thine enemies and turn the other cheek

Jesus would not be happy and his dad will hardly bless us.

[guntotinganglion]

You must have misread that one. It actually reads, hate thine enemies and kill them if they look at you funny. If Jesus were alive today, he'd be on his fifth stop-loss deployment, and he'd have been killed several times only to rise from the dead and continue to fight the "good fight" over and over and over...takin' a big ol' can a JC woopass to da enemy!

Praise Jesus, and pass the ammunition! Incoming!!!!...praise the Lord!

[marymansour]

I expect the Bush/Cheney crowd to either endorse an Israeli strike on the Iranian facility or do it ourselves. They, in their adoration of war games, think this will be the best way to insure a win for McCain in the fall. And the Israelis fall in with these war games naturally.

[curmudgeon3]

If someday the Iranians were to develop a nuclear weapon and fire it at Israel, how many of Israel's 200 nukes do you suppose they airmail to Iran?

Does anyone really believe that any country is that suicidal?

[neuron]

Sadly, there's a slew of people who do...

[K-Dog76]

curmudgeon3

Does anyone really believe that any country is that suicidal?

Yes
- you underestimate fanaticism. You have heard the term "suicide bomber" right? It only takes one suicidal dictator to press a button. Look at the destruction Hitler accomplished. He would have used a nuke if he had one, and he had plenty of followers...

[curmudgeon3]

If the Bush Administration was serious about keeping the world safe, they would have increased rather than cut back on funding to secure loose nukes in the Soviet Union. And these are existing, not potential nukes.

If estimates from wikipedia sources are even remotely accurate, Russia possesses at least a thousand more active nuclear warheads than the rest of the world combined.

If we consider other countries that possess nuclear warheads, this would include, in addition to Russia, Great Britain, France, Israel, China, India, Pakistan, or possibly still North Korea. Perhaps those are the countries, in addition to the United States, where a fanatic might have an opportunity to lay their hands on dangerous nuclear material.

Assumng that the Bush Administration has told us the truth, the 19 hijackers had been residing in this country for varying periods of time prior to 9/11 (so was the United States harboring terrorists?), and a bearded guy hooked up to a kidney dialysis machine in a cave in Afghanistan managed to coordinate an attack that overpowered the world's most sophisticated defenses, including an unintercepted assault on the Pentagon AFTER this country knew it was under attack. Think this is easy? Next time you're in a cave, check to see if you can get a cell phone signal.

I would argue that this country has more important priorities than to continue borrowing money from China (1.4 trillion and counting) to attack a country that might someday develop a nuclear weapon.

[LorettaSingbiel]

"If someday the Iranians were to develop a nuclear weapon and fire it at Israel, how many of Israel's 200 nukes do you suppose they airmail to Iran?"

I'm MORE worried about OUR country PRE-EMPTIVELY striking the NON-nuclear sovereign country of Iran!

If MCAIN=BUSH were to be elected president, he will bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran (thats if President Bush doesn't beat him to it first)... preventing war by first declaring it? Been there-done THAT in IRAQ ... but HELL ... if first you don't succeed, MCCAIN=BUSH, try try again?

STOP THIS INSANITY
AND SAVE HUMANITY!

OBAMA '08 (IF it's not TOO LATE!)
HOPE & CHANGE!

[fact finder]

Loretta; This is the perfect excuse for Pinky and the Brain to Nuke Iran. The only excuse that they will have to offer is , Conventional warfare,IE, Shock and Awe Shucks won't work so we have to Nuke the bad guys so that they won't nuke us is 20 or 50 years. As if Iran could not buy a Nuke if they wanted to. There were only a couple of thousand "lost" when the Soviet Union fell.

Love , Peace and Happy Happy.

[maxdenn]

One might wonder how other countries, say like China, Russsia, Pakistan, and India might react if the U.S. or another nation began bombing Iran.

[Ramirez]

They could issue a statement harshly critical of our action.

[Grunty1]

Or at the other extreme, start WW3 with us as the villain.

[Passenger57]

Or Russia,having major energy contracts with Iran, could start funding and supplying Iran with intel and weapons - like the US did when Iraq attacked Iran during the 80s - of course, the US was on Saddam's side...or they could just jump in.When we see one of our carriers on its way to the bottom,what then...?
Just think : if the US had aided Iran, Hussein might not have invaded Kuwait,we probably would not be in Iraq today, and we probably wouldn't be seemingly poised to take military action against Iran because of something they don't have.

[research]

Russia has a mutual defense agreement with Iran.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IJ26Ak06.html

[Ramirez]

You can always trust content from "a high-level diplomatic source in Tehran".

[bronceye]

While bush/cheney have been chest thumping and posturing, Iran(and the rest of the world) has progressed for 7 1/2 yrs. Shocking. How can world leaders not follow our example of dwelling in the past while calling it the future. My friends, we cannot allow the world to change while we have our profit plans based on capturing and corrupting history. My God, weezy will have to invent 5-6 new words to counter the reality of a sovereign nation thinking of their own people and their national security. They shouldn't be allowed to notice that N. Korea got a nuke, got a deal. I can see bush/cheney pondering the great question-"Who do they think they are, Hertz?". The world has passed us by and all of S.E. Asia didn't even go communist.

[CTmom13]

Well let's just hope we don't get Mr BOMB BOMB BOMB Iran in office

[DanielTana]

I wonder if Bush will ignore this intelligence too. Looks like another policy win for Obama. Maybe McCain will think twice before he sings "Bomb bomb Iran" again... but probably not. Funny how most of the things he wants to do are awful ideas.

[K-Dog76]

IN CASE NOBODY HAS NOTICED.

We haven't bombed Iran and we won't, its the tactical bargaining chip that will never get used. Kind of like we never bombed the USSR.

The only way we bomb Iran is when the launch a strike on Israel. Thats probably 6 or 7 years from now, So likely it will be Obama who presses the button.

[Cookie]

What idiot didn't think of THAT? Oh yeah, I forgot -- the one in the White House.

[TrueIndependent]

Another insightful article from the Washington Compost.

[3dtrix]

Can anyone tell me what the muffin on Sadr's head is? Is he a Rastafarian concealing his dreadlocks?

Hey, I know this post is stupid, but my thoughtful - if pointed - political posts (which conform to the guidelines as nearly as I can tell) keep getting deleted - three just last night.

So many other dopey comments get posted, I thought - if you can' beat 'em, join em!

Did you hear the one about the Haliburton contract and the congressman? - I mean the salesman and the farmer's daughter?