***CHECK BACK HERE FOR UPDATES ON HOW THE VP CANDIDATES ARE DOING IN THE INTRADE MARKET***
UPDATE: As of 8:33pm, Biden has regained a large lead among traders. His stock has shot up to 89.8, and Evan Bayh has now fallen 4.0, after dramatically rising on reports that a manufacturer of political literature was creating Obama-Bayh bumper stickers. The market is squarely behind Biden.
With Barack Obama's choice for a running mate imminent, the popular consensus -- both in the chattering and betting man's class -- has swung drastically towards Sen. Joseph Biden.
As of 9:00 a.m. Friday morning, Intrade, a political trading market, was selling the Democrat from Delaware at 55.0 a share, meaning that a majority of betters believe that he will end up as the vice president. The Senator has shot up on the market in recent days closing more than 13 points higher than his last price. A few days ago, however, he was selling at 49 a share. Check back as the numbers update throughout the day.
As for the other Democrats in the running for Obama's VP slot, the website has Sen. Even Bayh at a scant 12.5 per share (down significantly from his last price) and Governor Tim Kaine at 13.0 a share. General Wesley Clark, loved by the netroots but a longshot for the spot, is prices at 10.1
Intrade has its adherents and its detractors among political observers. The site correctly predicted every Senate race in 2006, but was incorrect when it came to anticipating a Democratic majority. But its prognostic capacity is based on conventional wisdom, making it often reactionary to the public mood. As noted by The Politico's Ben Smith, during the Democratic primary, Intrade had Barack Obama beating Hillary Clinton only after he had won the Iowa primary.