Prediction Market Bets On Biden For VP

***CHECK BACK HERE FOR UPDATES ON HOW THE VP CANDIDATES ARE DOING IN THE INTRADE MARKET***

UPDATE: As of 8:33pm, Biden has regained a large lead among traders. His stock has shot up to 89.8, and Evan Bayh has now fallen 4.0, after dramatically rising on reports that a manufacturer of political literature was creating Obama-Bayh bumper stickers. The market is squarely behind Biden.

With Barack Obama's choice for a running mate imminent, the popular consensus -- both in the chattering and betting man's class -- has swung drastically towards Sen. Joseph Biden.

As of 9:00 a.m. Friday morning, Intrade, a political trading market, was selling the Democrat from Delaware at 55.0 a share, meaning that a majority of betters believe that he will end up as the vice president. The Senator has shot up on the market in recent days closing more than 13 points higher than his last price. A few days ago, however, he was selling at 49 a share. Check back as the numbers update throughout the day.

As for the other Democrats in the running for Obama's VP slot, the website has Sen. Even Bayh at a scant 12.5 per share (down significantly from his last price) and Governor Tim Kaine at 13.0 a share. General Wesley Clark, loved by the netroots but a longshot for the spot, is prices at 10.1

Intrade has its adherents and its detractors among political observers. The site correctly predicted every Senate race in 2006, but was incorrect when it came to anticipating a Democratic majority. But its prognostic capacity is based on conventional wisdom, making it often reactionary to the public mood. As noted by The Politico's Ben Smith, during the Democratic primary, Intrade had Barack Obama beating Hillary Clinton only after he had won the Iowa primary.

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Read Joe Biden's blogs on the Huffington Post.

Comments

[chitown8]

Win or lose this is the most anticipated announcement in modern day history. Vegas is making money tonight. This is like the Cubs winning.

[FaceYourFears]

Exactly!

[BabsfromKansas]

a bit of hyperbole, me thinks

[lornejl]

3 posts deleted in the last 5 minutes, huffy thinks I have had enough fun and should go on my way, fair enough. Have fun all ; )

[Jrtrollspaceman]

they do not like you

[EarthToZoey]

Later! Don't be a dork like the rest of us who are home on a Friday night!

[6bd]

I am still hoping for a surprise..­...possibl­y Powell....­......Sena­tor Biden goes against what I see in Obama. He supported the war.......­he doesn't filter what he says......­......he his a long -standing
Washingtonite, and his past.....p­lagiarism.­....etc. What about integrity, he is so unpredictable. I just don't see him as an intellect. Sigh

[dentuso]

I would LOVE Powell. Ain't gonna happen, though. Half of America still lives in the south, and as long as that's the case, you'll NEVER see two black men on one ticket. Sad reality.

[macbabe]

sad but true...

[GypsyRose]

Wrong, that's not why. Alma, Mrs. Powell, said no, no, no. And that was 5 years ago.
Check it out, dent. No offense, but we don't need the drama of your theory that "half of America" still lives in the south -- whatever that means. Sometimes, as in this case, the answer is so simple.

[RedSt8r]

Let me get this straight..­.

You think Biden goes against what you see in Obama because he supported the war, but you're for General Powell, who argued for the war and WMDs in front of the UN?

Now, I understand.

[6bd]

touche....­......I stand humbly corrected. I don't know who would be best...but I truly hope Obama does.

[kcam44]

Obama/VP Colin Powell would knock the socks off the Republican Party..but it aint gonna happen.. half of this country does not want one black man in the White House, so I know for sure that they would not allow two of them to lead this country.

[TXOBAMAGIRL73]

What's wrong with you tr0lls/Fluma tr0lls???Almost as crazy as you were yesterday about the houses!!! This text message thing is drive all of you crazy!!! It's like a noun, a verb, venom and txt msg!!!

[pattruedem]

I bet they announce at 7 or 8 am. Then who ever it is will fly to meet Obama for the Springfield. And start their wining campaign.

[FiveFortyOne]

Isn't it convenient that news leaks of Bayh and Kaine not being chosen just as that Obama/Bayh bumper sticker story was threatening to break? Isn't it convenient?

[VolvoBirkenstock]

Those bumper stickers were a speculative venture of the printer. Hopes to sell them at the convention next week.

[dentuso]

That fact that they were complete deviations from all printed materials and images to date couldn't tip some off, could they? It's amazing that people looked at that thing and didn't ask "Wait... does that make any sense?"

[CocteausTwin]

Hey its Andrea Mitchell, how much does she know?

[aubrey8]

Drudge is reporting text message will go out in the morning...

[MNmommy]

d'oh

[QM2008]

That's a no-brainer at this point. It's too late to go out tonight and the joint appearance with the VP is in the early afternoon, so it will have to be in the late morning. My question is, how many people on the west coast will be up to receive their text message when it comes.

[dentuso]

Drudge also reported that Bayh was the candidate.

[CocteausTwin]

They really went out a limb there...

[VolvoBirkenstock]

Mc Cain takes an 8 car motorcade to get a latte at Starbucks.

"Latte Liberal" and "Limousine Liberal" talking points have just been removed from the tr0ll talking points.

[RedSt8r]

You sound so bitter. Now don't start clinging to guns and religion, those Mexicans didn't steal your job.

[rosal]

I just happen to be born in Mexico, so "those Mexicans" sound pretty offensive. No matter how low it goes, I never offend any other race, its just respect for every human being in this planet

[borderorder]

I hope one those cars had a GPS in it with a "home" button. It'd be an awful waste of gas for 8 limos to be driving around the city looking for one his homes.

[dentuso]

Well that's why the 8 limos, silly. If they all go separately to "his place" then he knows he'll make it home.

[GypsyRose]

Do you have a link for that? It doesn't sound like McC, nor anyone else I know.

[EarthToZoey]

It was actually a NINE car motorcade.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-campaign22-2008aug22,0,2934245.story

[CocteausTwin]

Well it was reported as a cappuccino by KO, so he is more like the average "joe" than we thought.

[LeftCoastLefty]

Oh please! a cappuccino is at least twice as snobby as a latte. The average 'joe' is the free cup of swill that comes with a $90 fill up at Texaco.

[levibatgirl]

LOL

[dentuso]

Is it possible that O and Co. just learned that AT&T wants to charge them 30 cents for each of the 5 million texts they were planning to send?

[Clenbuterol]

The people receiving them gotta pay too. Why do you think he supported the immunity bill?

[theMightyT]

probably just sticking to the plan...won­'t announce til tomorrow. And the evil MSM is laughing because they just tricked everyone into staring at the teevee during primetime.­.. good for ratings!

[FogBelter]

It occurred to me that maybe the Obama Campaign is waiting to send out the text messages at a time when when wireless traffic isn't at its peak ... so you don't have these millions of messages being received over an absurd duration of time that would render them less than a surprise when received.

That would be a flop.

[chavo]

Like I said before 3 AM. I' was joking before, but now I'm serious. Obama might do the Hillary 3 AM thing.

[heal57]

If it's 3:00 a.m. in the east, then it's midnight out west. Will it be Biden??????

[busybee64]

I saw Howard Dean in the Phoenix airport last night. He arrived on Southwest airlines, exited the plane and waited for some other woman to get off and meet him.

He's a lot smaller in real life than I thought, and has any icy stare. I imagine a lot is one his mind.

Nobody else was around him, no security or entourage. I felt it was kind of weird for Dean to be traveling on Southwest sitting by himself. I think one other person recognized him but wasn't sure. Most people did not recognize him right away.

[GoodGuysandBadGuys]

vp = dean

DEAN'S REVENGE!

[busybee64]

What I meant to say and forgot to is that I thought it was weird he was traveling alone on Southwest on the eve of the Democratic convention. No entourage or security and he used to be a frontrunner for President. Just a lonely traveller on a cheap airline. How weird is that?

[RedSt8r]

No, that was someone's checked bag - honest mistake, though.

[FaceYourFears]

Sen O bama's VP pick has become such a media bliss that whoever is chosen will definitely feel honored and will be a strong advocate for Sen O.

[RedSt8r]

Would you call them "an apostle"?

[Nochnoi]

Hehehehe..­... Now I thought I told ya'll it was going to be tomorrow in Springfiel­d....

[RedSt8r]

Springfield?!? Sweet... do you think it will be Obama/Quimby?

Duffs for everyone at Moe's afterwards, on Barney.

[lornejl]

I was on the same thought train as a troll, Arhggghhhhhh !!!!

[lornejl]

I hope Homer doesn't screw it up.

[jeter2]

If Obama wanted to sew up the race by tomorrow he'd hold his nose & name Hillary as his VP. But he won't, so it's gonna be a cliffhanger with McCain likely squeaking out a victory.

[notamarin]

This is so wrong, and yet people keep saying it.

No one would motivate republicans like Clinton. It would be disaster to pick her.

Might as well pick Ted Kennedy...­. the republicans would throw a party if he picked her.

[dentuso]

Where are you getting this information? Clin ton adds nothing to the ticket except for people who demand that she gets on the ticket. Frankly, her supporters have pretty much already ripped apart her political career, and she's the first to now beg for these children to grow up.

[GuyFawkes]

Guess that's why the new NBC poll shows 49% of the country would NEVER vote for her in a general election. She would just drag Obama down with her.

The Clintonistas need to get out of their little 50 person bubble and smell some fresh air, the one that the rest of America is breathing.

I'll wager if all the damage she's done to the AA community, she doesn't get reelected to the senate in 2012.

[RayPacNW]

Interesting opinion. Show us the numbers.

[borderorder]

To paraphrase a cliche, Rethugs think 0bama is wrong, but they think she is the devil.

[schicklett3]

Expect a 3am text message ;)

[NoOona]

That would be perfect.

Women for Obama08.